latin america: energy [r]evolution scenario table 12.39: latin america: electricity generation
table 12.42: latin america: installed capacity
TWh/a
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
GW
Power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Geothermal Solar thermal power plants Ocean energy
1,005 4 5 142 110 16 21 32 669 2 0 0 3 0 0
1,156 15 4 158 103 10 18 48 745 35 0 8 7 6 0
1,263 14 2 162 41 6 18 51 768 130 0 45 6 20 1
1,683 6 0 189 18 2 0 92 806 354 100 105 12 89 10
2,275 0 0 257 11 1 0 137 814 580 220 221 19 200 35
2,639 0 0 121 1 1 0 175 823 745 300 354 22 345 52
Power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Geothermal Solar thermal power plants Ocean energy
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
21 0 0 12 0 9 0 0
75 0 0 28 0 43 4 0
180 0 0 48 0 118 13 1
251 0 0 27 0 173 46 4
320 0 0 15 0 215 83 7
0 0
3 18
10 65
35 145
48 203
60 260
1,005 278 4 5 142 110 16 21 0 705 669 2 0 0 32 3 0 0
1,177 302 15 4 170 103 10 18 0 858 745 35 0 8 57 7 6 0
1,338 253 14 2 190 41 6 18 0 1,067 768 130 0 45 93 11 20 1
1,863 263 6 0 237 18 2 0 1 1,599 806 354 100 105 210 25 89 10
2,526 296 0 0 284 11 1 0 4 2,226 814 580 220 221 310 65 200 35
2,959 139 0 0 137 1 1 0 7 2,814 823 745 300 354 390 105 345 52
Total generation Fossil Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Hydrogen Renewables Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Biomass Geothermal Solar thermal Ocean energy
Distribution losses Own consumption electricity Electricity for hydrogen production Final energy consumption (electricity)
164 34 0 807
190 42 0 945
201 44 47 1,045
228 47 213 1,376
254 45 452 1,774
296 37 601 2,026
Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) Share of fluctuating RES RES share (domestic generation)
Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) Share of fluctuating RES RES share (domestic generation) ‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)
2 0.2% 70% 0
43 3.7% 73% 18
176 13.2% 80% 81
469 25.2% 86% 214
836 33.1% 88% 374
1,151 38.9% 95% 605
Combined heat & power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen CHP by producer Main activity producers Autoproducers Total generation Fossil Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Hydrogen Renewables Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Biomass Geothermal Solar thermal Ocean energy
table 12.40: latin america: heat supply 2020
2030
2040
2050
2 0 2 0 0
9 0 7 1 1
16 0 12 2 2
23 0 15 5 3
19 0 10 5 4
Heat from CHP Fossil fuels Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen
0 0 0 0 0
43 24 19 0 0
251 91 143 17 0
1,060 266 689 98 6
1,831 173 1,214 417 28
2,379 110 1,474 744 50
Direct heating1) Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal2) Hydrogen
5,565 3,459 2,089 17 0
6,373 3,666 2,447 163 96 0
6,347 3,050 2,528 460 239 71
5,993 2,022 2,417 837 463 254
5,373 728 2,300 1,258 793 295
4,782 95 1,966 1,460 1,009 253
Total heat supply1) Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal1) Hydrogen
5,565 3,459 2,089 17 0 0
6,418 3,690 2,468 163 97 0
6,607 3,140 2,679 461 257 71
7,070 2,289 3,117 840 563 261
7,228 901 3,529 1,262 1,213 322
7,180 205 3,451 1,465 1,757 303
37.8% RES share (including RES electricity) 0 ‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)
43%
52%
67%
87%
97%
216
550
1,029
1,670
2,369
1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; geothermal includes heat pumps
table 12.41: latin america: co 2 emissions 2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
159 4 6 67 71 10
167 13 5 76 66 6
105 12 2 61 26 4
85 5 0 68 11 1
102 0 0 95 7 1
46 0 0 45 1 1
0 0 0 0 0
13 0 0 13 0
29 0 0 29 0
44 0 0 44 0
19 0 0 19 0
11 0 0 11 0
159 4 6 67 82
180 13 5 90 73
133 12 2 89 30
129 5 0 111 12
121 0 0 114 7
57 0 0 56 1
CO2 emissions by sector % of 1990 emissions Industry1) Other sectors1) Transport Power generation2) District heating & other conversion
972 168% 202 115 342 159 155
1,004 174% 220 122 371 168 123
880 152% 195 101 365 107 112
660 114% 140 74 264 90 93
358 62% 46 39 132 107 35
155 27% 12 20 58 46 18
Population (Mill.) CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita) ‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.)
468 2.1 0
499 2.0 161
522 1.7 394
562 1.2 788
589 0.6 1,268
603 0.3 1,718
MILL t/a Condensation power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Combined heat & power production Coal Lignite Gas Oil CO2 emissions power generation (incl. CHP public) Coal Lignite Gas Oil & diesel
1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public
2020
2030
2040
2050
275 3 1 46 29 3 2 7 157 16 0 6 1 5 0
326 2 0 46 14 2 2 8 159 49 0 33 1 8 1
475 1 0 50 8 1 0 15 167 130 35 74 2 21 7
691 0 0 67 5 0 0 23 169 202 69 152 3 44 25
858 0 0 43 0 0 0 32 170 258 93 243 4 69 37
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 2 0 1 0 0
13 0 0 5 0 7 1 0
32 0 0 10 0 19 3 0
43 0 0 6 0 27 9 1
54 0 0 3 0 34 16 1
0 0
1 3
2 11
6 25
8 35
9 45
227 77 1 1 42 29 4 3 0 148 142 1 0 0 5 1 0 0
279 84 3 1 48 29 3 2 0 193 157 16 0 6 8 1 5 0
338 70 2 0 51 14 2 2 0 266 159 49 0 33 15 2 8 1
507 70 1 0 60 8 1 0 0 436 167 130 35 74 33 4 21 7
734 79 0 0 73 5 0 0 1 654 169 202 69 152 50 12 44 25
912 47 0 0 46 0 0 0 1 863 170 258 93 243 66 19 69 37
1 0% 65%
22 8% 69%
83 25% 79%
210 42% 86%
379 52% 89%
538 59% 95%
table 12.43: latin america: primary energy demand 2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
22,045 14,876 664 72 4,539 9,600
25,115 16,090 787 44 5,580 9,679
25,822 14,551 897 19 5,589 8,045
27,501 11,705 959 0 5,511 5,235
28,599 7,813 959 0 4,277 2,577
29,506 4,433 873 0 2,373 1,186
Nuclear 230 Renewables 6,939 Hydro 2,408 Wind 7 Solar 17 Biomass 4,399 Geothermal/ambient heat 108 Ocean energy 0 RES share 31.5% ‘Efficiency’ savings (compared to Ref.) 0
191 8,835 2,683 126 246 5,378 401 0 35.1% 1,244
191 11,080 2,763 468 803 6,245 798 4 42.9% 2,359
0 15,796 2,903 1,275 2,017 7,883 1,682 36 57.4% 4,923
0 20,786 2,932 2,089 3,858 8,215 3,565 126 72.7% 7,784
0 25,073 2,962 2,683 5,845 8,097 5,299 187 85.0% 11,236
PJ/a Total Fossil Hard coal Lignite Natural gas Crude oil
table 12.44: latin america: final energy demand 2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
Total (incl. non-energy use) Total (energy use) Transport Oil products Natural gas Biofuels Electricity RES electricity Hydrogen RES share Transport
17,190 15,835 5,381 4,592 217 562 10 7 0 10.6%
19,609 18,027 5,979 4,975 259 718 28 20 0 12.3%
20,293 18,636 6,200 4,866 278 877 153 122 27 16.5%
21,071 19,192 6,000 3,444 310 1,166 865 742 216 34.9%
21,143 19,113 5,600 1,597 322 1,049 1,846 1,626 786 60.1%
20,807 18,890 5,400 583 306 934 2,322 2,208 1,255 80.3%
Industry Electricity RES electricity District heat RES district heat Coal Oil products Gas Solar Biomass and waste Geothermal/ambient heat Hydrogen RES share Industry
5,828 1,210 850 0 0 282 1,334 1,348 0 1,655 0 0 43.0%
6,850 1,444 1,053 25 12 274 1,140 1,748 82 2,040 96 0 47.9%
7,125 1,574 1,256 180 122 268 721 1,688 250 2,166 191 88 56.9%
7,500 1,767 1,517 736 583 21 362 1,480 441 2,034 341 318 69.2%
7,551 1,933 1,704 1,328 1,272 0 123 600 671 1,841 687 368 86.1%
7,351 2,102 1,999 1,729 1,725 0 48 146 790 1,430 790 316 95.7%
Other Sectors Electricity RES electricity District heat RES district heat Coal Oil products Gas Solar Biomass and waste Geothermal/ambient heat RES share Other Sectors
4,626 1,686 1,184 0 0 4 1,173 488 17 1,259 0 53.2%
5,198 1,930 1,406 18 10 3 1,207 537 81 1,368 54 56.2%
5,311 2,035 1,624 68 42 0 892 541 210 1,353 212 64.8%
5,693 2,315 1,987 290 210 0 556 382 396 1,332 423 76.4%
5,962 2,585 2,278 439 352 0 188 241 587 1,366 556 86.2%
6,139 2,816 2,678 557 553 0 38 114 670 1,317 627 95.2%
Total RES RES share
5,533 34.9%
6,941 38.5%
8,516 45.7%
11,629 60.6%
15,005 78.5%
17,215 91.1%
1,355 839 510 6
1,582 949 601 32
1,657 845 646 166
1,879 545 770 564
2,030 507 873 650
1,917 479 863 575
PJ/a
Non energy use Oil Gas Coal
303
12
APPENDIX - LATIN AMERICA
2015
0 0 0 0 0
2015
227 1 1 42 29 4 3 5 142 1 0 0 1 0 0
glossary & appendix |
2009
District heating Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal
PJ/a
Combined heat & power production Coal Lignite Gas Oil Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen CHP by producer Main activity producers Autoproducers
2009