WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
global: reference scenario table 12.3: global: electricity generation
table 12.6: global: installed capacity
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
18,064 5,698 1,712 3,280 825 107 2,676 180 3,226 273 0 20 65 1 1
22,352 7,802 1,706 4,027 669 91 2,949 296 3,791 806 9 108 91 15 1
26,071 9,543 1,650 4,641 601 83 3,495 401 4,223 1,127 51 158 113 35 2
32,646 12,796 1,416 6,107 479 73 3,938 696 4,834 1,710 214 341 163 81 13
39,045 15,731 1,243 7,943 404 71 4,058 1,012 5,325 2,298 392 548 225 143 43
44,804 17,898 1,147 9,923 360 68 4,183 1,297 5,780 2,838 559 746 283 222 58
1,992 488 185 1,131 83 104 2 0
2,237 584 180 1,260 72 137 4 0
2,420 675 170 1,336 60 173 5 0
2,815 815 161 1,542 47 241 9 0
3,181 939 152 1,724 45 307 14 0
3,512 1,060 146 1,867 40 378 20 0
1,451 542
1,566 672
1,623 797
1,776 1,039
1,913 1,268
2,028 1,484
20,056 13,509 6,186 1,897 4,410 908 107 2,676 0 3,872 3,226 273 0 20 284 67 1 1
24,589 16,392 8,386 1,886 5,287 741 91 2,949 0 5,249 3,791 806 9 108 433 94 15 1
28,490 18,759 10,218 1,820 5,977 661 83 3,495 0 6,237 4,223 1,127 51 158 574 118 35 2
35,461 23,436 13,611 1,576 7,649 526 73 3,938 0 8,088 4,834 1,710 214 341 937 172 81 13
42,226 28,253 16,670 1,395 9,667 449 71 4,058 0 9,915 5,325 2,298 392 548 1,319 238 143 43
48,316 32,511 18,959 1,294 11,790 401 68 4,183 0 11,623 5,780 2,838 559 746 1,675 303 222 58
Total generation Fossil Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Hydrogen Renewables Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Biomass Geothermal Solar thermal Ocean energy
1,682 Distribution losses 1,692 Own consumption electricity 0 Electricity for hydrogen production Final energy consumption (electricity) 16,707
1,863 1,974 0 20,744
2,123 2,232 0 24,128
2,578 2,671 1 30,201
3,061 3,083 2 36,060
3,515 3,481 3 41,293
Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) Share of fluctuating RES RES share (domestic generation)
294 1.5% 19.3%
915 3.7% 21.3%
1,286 4.5% 21.9%
2,064 5.8% 22.8%
2,889 6.8% 23.5%
3,643 7.5% 24.1%
table 12.7: global: primary energy demand
TWh/a Power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Geothermal Solar thermal power plants Ocean energy Combined heat & power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen CHP by producer Main activity producers Autoproducers Total generation Fossil Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Hydrogen Renewables Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Biomass Geothermal Solar thermal Ocean energy
Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) Share of fluctuating RES RES share (domestic generation)
table 12.4: global: heat supply
12 glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - GLOBAL
PJ/a
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
District heating Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal
6,598 6,331 265 0 3
6,946 6,568 374 0 4
7,417 6,937 475 0 4
7,498 6,894 598 1 5
7,716 7,110 600 1 5
8,170 7,591 574 0 5
Heat from CHP Fossil fuels Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen
6,303 5,938 355 10 0
7,074 6,661 390 23 0
7,676 7,174 471 31 0
8,463 7,834 582 47 0
9,124 8,338 712 75 0
10,036 9,046 871 119 0
Direct heating1) Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal2)
124,373 90,033 33,465 545 329
142,878 105,883 35,699 883 411
151,410 113,457 36,365 1,099 489
162,652 122,561 37,675 1,742 673
172,640 129,024 40,044 2,542 1,030
181,464 133,997 42,935 3,255 1,277
Total heat supply1) Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal2) Hydrogen
137,274 102,302 34,085 546 342 0
156,898 119,112 36,464 884 438 0
166,502 127,567 37,311 1,100 525 0
178,613 137,289 38,856 1,743 725 0
189,480 144,472 41,356 2,543 1,110 0
199,670 150,634 44,380 3,255 1,400 0
25.5%
24.1%
23.4%
23.1%
23.8%
24.6%
RES share (including RES electricity)
GW
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
Power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Geothermal Solar thermal power plants Ocean energy
4,387 1,138 297 987 319 46 395 34 995 147 0 19 11 0 0
5,543 1,559 292 1,238 282 54 420 57 1,137 397 3 88 14 5 1
6,294 1,826 287 1,400 247 49 485 71 1,250 525 17 124 18 11 1
7,635 2,350 232 1,698 187 46 539 117 1,425 754 68 234 25 24 4
8,991 2,798 196 2,117 159 45 549 167 1,564 959 116 351 35 40 13
10,267 3,124 182 2,584 133 42 565 211 1,695 1,135 160 471 44 62 18
521 125 40 286 52 18 0 0
553 134 35 308 53 22 1 0
578 149 32 328 40 27 1 0
633 169 27 372 25 38 1 0
698 190 24 409 24 49 2 0
761 217 23 434 23 60 3 0
399 122
397 156
400 178
404 229
421 278
443 317
4,908 3,290 1,263 338 1,273 372 46 395 0 1,224 995 147 0 19 51 11 0 0
6,096 3,954 1,693 327 1,545 335 54 420 0 1,721 1,137 397 3 88 79 15 5 1
6,872 4,359 1,975 318 1,729 288 49 485 0 2,028 1,250 525 17 124 98 18 11 1
8,268 5,106 2,519 259 2,070 212 46 539 0 2,622 1,425 754 68 234 155 27 24 4
9,690 5,962 2,988 220 2,526 183 45 549 0 3,179 1,564 959 116 351 215 37 40 13
11,028 6,763 3,342 205 3,018 156 42 565 0 3,699 1,695 1,135 160 471 272 47 62 18
165.8 3.4% 24.9%
485.6 8.0% 28.2%
649.7 9.5% 29.5%
992 12.0% 31.7%
1322 13.6% 32.8%
1624 14.7% 33.5%
Combined heat & power production Coal Lignite Gas Oil Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen CHP by producer Main activity producers Autoproducers
PJ/a Total Fossil Hard coal Lignite Natural gas Crude oil Nuclear Renewables Hydro Wind Solar Biomass Geothermal/ambient heat Ocean energy RES share
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
10,117 6,090 1,757 1,529 659 82
12,073 7,865 1,752 1,850 540 66
13,568 9,273 1,663 2,082 490 60
16,177 11,712 1,319 2,714 379 52
18,507 13,507 1,163 3,475 312 51
19,343 14,029 1,080 3,922 263 49
1,779 591 246 851 92
1,784 670 202 834 78
1,781 703 175 835 69
1,851 760 166 871 55
1,946 820 156 924 45
2,045 881 153 976 35
11,896 6,681 2,002 2,379 833
13,856 8,535 1,954 2,684 684
15,349 9,975 1,837 2,917 619
18,028 12,472 1,484 3,585 487
20,454 14,327 1,320 4,399 408
21,388 14,910 1,233 4,897 347
CO2 emissions by sector 27,925 % of 1990 emissions 133% Industry1) 4,674 Other sectors1) 3,380 Transport 5516 Power generation2) District heating & other conversion 11,526 2,829 6,818 Population (Mill.) 4.1 CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)
31,951 153% 5,873 3,617 6299 13,401 2,761 7,284 4.4
34,751 166% 6,393 3,761 6673 14,835 3,089 7,668 4.5
39,192 187% 6,774 3,967 7716 17,430 3,306 8,372 4.7
42,968 205% 6,997 4,055 8733 19,782 3,401 8,978 4.8
45,267 216% 7,185 4,097 9847 20,650 3,487 9,469 4.8
MILL t/a Condensation power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Combined heat & power production Coal Lignite Gas Oil CO2 emissions power generation (incl. CHP public) Coal Lignite Gas Oil & diesel
1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public
294
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
568,874 457,556 147,912 21,418 121,067 167,159
615,685 491,659 166,399 20,343 131,682 173,236
693,951 550,601 192,304 16,891 155,412 185,993
760,603 601,888 209,391 15,096 179,878 197,522
805,253 633,413 212,151 14,094 195,804 211,365
29,215 67,902 11,617 983 626 52,040 2,634 2 13.6%
32,169 79,149 13,650 2,902 1,397 58,099 3,095 5 13.9%
38,125 85,900 15,205 4,057 1,960 61,077 3,593 7 13.9%
42,958 100,393 17,403 6,155 3,614 68,443 4,728 48 14.4%
44,275 114,440 19,173 8,275 5,629 75,248 5,961 155 15.0%
45,636 126,204 20,811 10,219 7,718 80,503 6,744 209 15.6%
table 12.8: global: final energy demand 2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
335,013 303,800 81,577 75,529 2,923 2,158 967 187 0 2.9%
386,456 351,445 94,462 86,100 3,614 3,472 1,276 272 0 4.0%
416,436 379,485 100,181 90,821 3,836 4,070 1,455 318 0 4.4%
469,241 429,613 116,457 103,949 4,973 5,612 1,920 438 3 5.2%
517,946 476,674 132,881 116,650 6,597 7,129 2,500 587 5 5.8%
564,280 521,892 150,478 131,366 7,984 8,018 3,102 746 9 5.8%
95,202 24,131 4,658 4,607 110 22,026 13,290 23,403 0 7,731 15 0 13.1%
119,107 32,563 6,951 5,200 293 31,535 14,600 25,707 4 9,481 16 0 14.1%
131,613 38,348 8,395 5,674 366 35,220 15,029 27,405 7 9,913 17 0 14.2%
147,134 47,330 10,795 5,857 446 36,111 15,185 31,513 11 11,108 19 0 15.2%
160,379 55,620 13,059 6,073 492 35,677 15,202 35,342 22 12,421 22 0 16.2%
171,874 62,635 15,067 6,565 550 34,758 15,508 38,732 64 13,582 31 0 17.0%
127,021 35,049 6,766 5,974 126 5,995 18,070 26,030 545 35,151 207 33.7%
137,875 40,839 8,717 6,338 328 5,750 19,333 28,914 879 35,552 270 33.2%
147,690 47,058 10,302 6,794 407 5,453 20,004 31,050 1,092 35,908 330 32.5%
166,022 59,474 13,564 7,392 513 4,867 19,978 35,724 1,732 36,358 497 31.7%
183,415 71,697 16,834 7,952 554 3,690 19,503 39,875 2,520 37,320 858 31.7%
199,540 82,919 19,946 8,642 571 2,492 19,003 43,240 3,191 38,959 1,094 32.0%
Total RES RES share
57,653 19.0%
66,234 18.8%
71,125 18.7%
81,093 18.9%
91,821 19.3%
101,821 19.5%
Non energy use Oil Gas Coal
31,213 23,979 5,692 1,542
35,012 26,109 7,018 1,885
36,952 27,354 7,581 2,017
39,627 28,976 8,499 2,152
41,271 29,834 9,226 2,211
42,388 30,463 9,725 2,201
PJ/a Total (incl. non-energy use) Total (energy use) Transport Oil products Natural gas Biofuels Electricity RES electricity Hydrogen RES share Transport
1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.
table 12.5: global: co 2 emissions
2009 498,243 401,126 120,811 21,649 107,498 151,168
Industry Electricity RES electricity District heat RES district heat Coal Oil products Gas Solar Biomass and waste Geothermal/ambient heat Hydrogen RES share Industry Other Sectors Electricity RES electricity District heat RES district heat Coal Oil products Gas Solar Biomass and waste Geothermal/ambient heat RES share Other Sectors