WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
non oecd asia GLOBAL SCENARIO
non oecd asia: electricity generation
5
NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA
MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
key results | NON OECD ASIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION
The development of the electricity supply market is characterised by an increasing share of renewable electricity.By 2050, 96% of the electricity produced in Non OECD Asia will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, PV and solar thermal power – will contribute 88% of electricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 36% already by 2020 and 64% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 605 GW in 2030 and 1,619 GW by 2050, an enormous increase. Table 5.49 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in Non OECD Asia over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from photovoltaics, solar thermal (CSP), and ocean energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 34% by 2030 and 54% by 2050, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.
table 5.49: non oecd asia: renewable electricity generation capacity under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW 2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Hydro
REF E[R]
48 48
75 69
100 80
123 88
146 96
Biomass
REF E[R]
3 3
6 4
11 7
17 11
23 13
Wind
REF E[R]
1 1
6 90
21 210
45 372
71 478
Geothermal
REF E[R]
3 3
5 12
7 34
10 72
13 107
PV
REF E[R]
0 0
4 59
11 199
17 391
24 577
CSP
REF E[R]
0 0
0 4
0 64
0 171
0 295
Ocean energy
REF E[R]
0 0
0 2
0 12
0 27
0 53
Total
REF E[R]
55 55
96 240
150 211 275 605 1,130 1,619
figure 5.113: non oecd asia: electricity generation structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 TWh/a 0 REF 2009
160
E[R]
REF 2015
E[R]
REF 2020
E[R]
REF 2030
E[R]
REF 2040
E[R]
REF 2050
E[R]
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OCEAN ENERGY SOLAR THERMAL GEOTHERMAL BIOMASS PV WIND HYDRO NUCLEAR DIESEL OIL NATURAL GAS LIGNITE COAL