image FEMALE WORKER CLEANING A SOLAR OVEN AT A COLLEGE IN TILONIA, RAJASTHAN, INDIA.
india: future costs of electricity generation
figure 5.101: india: total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation costs under two scenarios
Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of $ 5,500 billion up to 2050, or $ 138 billion per year. The total fuel cost savings herefore would cover 200% of the total additional investments compared to the Reference scenario. These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies.
figure 5.102: india: investment shares - reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario
REF 2011 - 2050 Bn$/a
ct/kWh
1,000
18
5%
CHP
16 800
14 12
600
10 8
400
13%
NUCLEAR
38%
RENEWABLES
44%
FOSSIL
Total $ 1,905 billion
6 4
200
2 0
0 2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF)
•• •
E[R] 2011 - 2050 3% FOSSIL & NUCLEAR
SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R]) ‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES
11% CHP
REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF) ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R])
india: future investments in the power sector It would require about $ 4,680 billion in additional investment for the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 117 billion annually or $ 69 billion more than in the Reference scenario ($ 1,905 billion). Under the Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional power
Total $ 4,680 billion
86% RENEWABLES
151
5
INDIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Under the Reference scenario, by contrast, unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 100 billion per year to more than $ 932 billion in 2050. Figure 5.101 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with India’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are 23% lower than in the Reference scenario.
plants add up to almost 56% while approximately 44% would be invested in renewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, India would shift almost 97% of the entire investment towards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants. The average annual investment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be approximately $ 117 billion.
key results |
Figure 5.101 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightly increases the costs of electricity generation in India compared to the Reference scenario. This difference will be less than $ 1 cent/kWh up to 2020, however. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 7.2 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.
© MARCUS FRANKEN/GP
© GP/PETER CATON
image A LOCAL BENGALI WOMAN PLANTS A MANGROVE (SUNDARI) SAPLING ON SAGAR ISLAND IN THE ECOLOGICALLY SENSITIVE SUNDERBANS RIVER DELTA REGION, IN WEST BENGAL. THOUSANDS OF LOCAL PEOPLE WILL JOIN THE MANGROVE PLANTING INITIATIVE LED BY PROFESSOR SUGATA HAZRA FROM JADAVAPUR UNIVERSITY, WHICH WILL HELP TO PROTECT THE COAST FROM EROSION AND WILL ALSO PROVIDE NUTRIENTS FOR FISH AND CAPTURE CARBON IN THEIR EXTENSIVE ROOT SYSTEMS.