WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
oecd europe GLOBAL SCENARIO
MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
oecd europe: development of CO2 emissions
5
NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA
sector to replace oil combustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 46% in 2030 and 85% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2030.
key results | OECD EUROPE - CO 2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION
While CO2 emissions in OECD Europe will decrease by 4% in the Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from around 3,800 million tonnes in 2009 to 192 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 6.8 tonnes to 2.9 tonnes in 2030 and 0.3 tonne in 2050. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 28% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the power sector will drop below transport and other sectors as the largest sources of emissions. By 2050, OECD Europe’s CO2 emissions are 5% of 1990 levels.
figure 5.55: oecd europe: development of CO2 emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
Million people
Mill t/a
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oecd europe: primary energy consumption
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2,000
Taking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.56. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 43% in 2050. Around 85% of the remaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.
200 1,000 100 0
0 REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] 2009
The Energy [R]evolution version phases out coal and oil about 10 to 15 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2010. This is made possible mainly by the replacement of coal power plants with renewables and a faster introduction of very efficient electric vehicles in the transport
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2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
POPULATION DEVELOPMENT SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES OTHER SECTORS INDUSTRY TRANSPORT POWER GENERATION
figure 5.56: oecd europe: primary energy consumption under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 PJ/a 0 REF
116
2009
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REF 2015
E[R]
REF 2020
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REF 2030
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REF 2040
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REF 2050
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‘EFFICIENCY’ OCEAN ENERGY GEOTHERMAL SOLAR BIOMASS WIND HYDRO NATURAL GAS OIL COAL NUCLEAR