WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
oecd europe GLOBAL SCENARIO
MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
oecd europe: heating supply
5
NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA
table 5.20: oecd europe: renewable heating capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW
key results |
Renewables currently provide 14% of OECD Europe’s energy demand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass. The lack of district heating networks is a severe structural barrier to the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 48% of OECD Europe’s total heat demand in 2030 and 92% in 2050.
2009
OECD EUROPE - HEATING
• Energy efficiency measures can decrease the current total demand for heat supply by at least 10%, in spite of growing population and economic activities and improving living standards. • For direct heating, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel-fired systems.
Biomass
REF E[R]
Solar collectors
REF E[R]
Geothermal
REF E[R]
Hydrogen
REF E[R]
Total
REF E[R]
2020
2030
2040
2050
2,413 3,291 3,865 4,456 4,907 2,413 4,170 4,265 4,061 3,580 64 64
204 332 459 586 954 2,697 4,441 5,675
186 261 336 475 568 186 1,345 2,781 5,012 6,741 0 0
0 0
0 1
0 37
2,662 3,756 4,533 5,390 6,061 2,662 6,469 9,744 13,551 16,199
• The introduction of strict efficiency measures e.g. via strict building standards and ambitious support programs for renewable heating systems are needed to achieve economies of scale within the next 5 to 10 years. Table 5.20 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating in OECD Europe over time. Up to 2020 biomass will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels.
figure 5.51: oecd europe: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
••• •• •
10,000
5,000
PJ/a 0 REF
E[R] 2009
112
REF
E[R] 2015
REF
E[R] 2020
REF
E[R] 2030
REF
E[R] 2040
0 204
REF
E[R] 2050
‘EFFICIENCY’ HYDROGEN GEOTHERMAL SOLAR BIOMASS FOSSIL