2014 ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
What are your expectations of the economic performance for 2014 compared to 2013 for the following areas?
FASTER GROWTH
SAME AS 2013
SLOWER GROWTH
27%
51%
22%
UNITED STATES
Greater Omaha Chamber members are more optimistic about local and regional growth prospects than they are about the outlook for the national economy. Current regional economic conditions provide a healthy on-ramp to 2014: private sector employers added more than 5,200 net new jobs for the 12 months ending in August; home sales have increased for six consecutive months and net taxable sales have increased for 10 consecutive months. At the national level, loose monetary policy, record corporate profits and a continued rebound in the housing sector will likely lead to an acceleration in economic growth in 2014. Economic Outlook Chamber members remain upbeat about Greater Omaha’s projected economic activity in 2014, with 58 percent of survey respondents expecting stronger growth in the coming year. Only 6 percent of respondents expect slower growth in the year ahead. At the state level, 37 percent of respondents expect stronger growth in 2014 and 57 percent expecting about the same pace of growth as in 2013. At the national level, 27 percent of respondents anticipate faster growth in 2014. One-in-five respondents anticipate slower growth for the U.S. economy in 2014. Commercial Activity Seven-out-of-ten respondents expect stronger sales in 2014, with a relatively meager 9 percent expecting sales revenue to decline. As for how businesses are faring thus far in 2013, 61 percent of respondents have posted increased sales revenue compared to 2012. Workforce Forty-four percent of respondents expect to increase employment levels in 2014 compared to 2013. A relatively small (6 percent) of respondents anticipate the need to reduce employment levels in the coming year. Thus far in 2013, 41 percent of respondents report increased employment levels compared to 2012. Capital Investment Respondents anticipate a solid follow-up to 2013 investment expenditures in 2014. Ninety percent of respondents expect to increase capital expenditures or maintain spending at current levels in 2014 compared to 2013. Thus far in 2013, 40 percent of respondents report increased levels of capital expenditures compared to 2012.
37%
57% 6%
NEBRASKA
58%
36% 6%
GREATER OMAHA Total Respondents: 146
Looking ahead to 2014, how do you anticipate your business will perform compared to this year in the following categories?
SALES REVENUE/ VOLUME OF BUSINESS
70% INCREASE 21% SAME AS 2013 9% DECREASE
44% INCREASE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES
50% SAME AS 2013 6% DECREASE
40% INCREASE CAPITAL INVESTMENT
50% SAME AS 2013 11% DECREASE Total Respondents: 134
METHODOLOGY – An email with a link to complete the 2013 Economic Outlook Survey was sent in late September 2013 to active member contacts of the Greater Omaha Chamber. A total of 152 surveys were completed (or partially completed). The results of this survey and other economic statistics are available at OmahaChamber.org and SelectGreaterOmaha.com. Note: Charts may equal more than 100 based on rounding.
GREATER OMAHA TRENDS EMPLOYMENT* (000s)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
Total Non-Farm Employment
355.2
392.2
441.6
448.8
457.3
461.3
467.4
Private Employment
301.8
336.6
386.4
388.9
392.1
395.7
401.9
Mining. Logging and Construction
12.4
17.5
23.2
25.7
20.9
20.1
21.1
Manufacturing
32.8
34.6
35.7
32.9
31.2
31.2
31.3
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
90.6
98.6
107.5
99.4
93.7
93.7
93.8
Information
10.8
12.9
15.1
13.3
11.2
11.3
11.4
Financial Activities
29.8
31.3
35.7
37.6
40.5
41.3
41.6
Professional and Business Services
40.8
49.0
59.6
61.6
63.1
64.6
66.7
Education and Health Care Service
40.7
45.2
54.5
60.2
70.2
71.7
73.1
Leisure and Hospitality
30.8
34.2
41.0
42.2
43.8
44.4
45.6
Other Services
13.1
13.4
14.2
16.1
17.5
17.3
17.4
Government
53.4
55.6
55.3
59.9
65.3
65.5
65.5
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
Greater Omaha CSA
2.8
2.8
2.8
4.3
5.2
5.0
4.4
State of Nebraska
2.3
2.6
2.8
3.9
4.7
4.4
3.9
United States
5.6
5.6
4.0
5.1
9.6
8.9
8.1
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
Single-Family Permits
2,161
2,526
3,393
5,487
2,072
1,960
2,071
Multi-Family Units
1,201
1,097
2,442
1,061
684
981
1,225
423
579
365
401
149
169
179
2,673
3,212
3,975
5,976
2,255
2,170
2,339
Single-Family
149.6
220.3
357.1
706.1
345.6
334.8
378.8
Multi-Family
19.8
31.3
114.7
62.4
45.5
68.7
86.6
BUILDING PERMITS* Number of Permits/Units
Non-Residential Permits Total Permits (includes multi-family permits) Valuation of Permits ($ millions)
93.2
163.7
228.1
196.0
156.5
191.9
302.9
Total Valuation
Non-Residential
262.6
415.3
699.9
964.5
547.6
595.4
768.2
RETAIL*
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
Net Taxable Sales ($ billions)
4.19
5.47
7.01
8.67
9.24
9.64
9.81
Net Taxable Sales of Motor Vehicles ($ millions)
531.8
699.0
970.9
1,055.0
1,152.8
1,224.9
1,317.2
POPULATION
1980
1990
2000
2010
2012
689,423
720,291
803,201
902,041
2001
2005
2008
35,548
39,406
n.a.
1.5%
31,146 n.a.
Greater Omaha CSA
GROSS METRO PRODUCT* (2005 $s millions) Total Real (inflation-adjusted) Output Growth Rate (%) Private Industries (inflation-adjusted) Output Growth Rate (%)
2017
2022
projection
projection
925,858
978,451
980,652
2009
2010
2011
2012
41,884
41,541
42,828
43,360
44,154
-0.3%
-0.8%
3.1%
1.2%
1.8%
35,022
37,482
37,066
38,046
38,593
39,395
1.8%
-0.5%
-1.1%
2.6%
1.4%
2.1%
*Greater Omaha MSA SelectGreaterOmaha.com • 402-346-5000 • 800-852-2622 • 1301 Harney St., Omaha, NE 68102