ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE EU 27 ENERGY OUTLOOK
4 scenarios for a future energy supply | COST PROJECTIONS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
4.7.1 photovoltaics (PV)
4.7.2 concentrating solar power (CSP)
The worldwide photovoltaics (PV) market has been growing at over 40% per annum in recent years and the contribution is starting to make a significant contribution to electricity generation. Photovoltaics are important because of its decentralised / centralised character, its flexibility for use in an urban environment and huge potential for cost reduction. The PV industry has been increasingly exploiting this potential during the last few years, with installation prices more than halving in the last few years. Current development is focused on improving existing modules and system components by increasing their energy efficiency and reducing material usage. Technologies like PV thin film (using alternative semiconductor materials) or dye sensitive solar cells are developing quickly and present a huge potential for cost reduction. The mature technology crystalline silicon, with a proven lifetime of 30 years, is continually increasing its cell and module efficiency (by 0.5% annually), whereas the cell thickness is rapidly decreasing (from 230 to 180 microns over the last five years). Commercial module efficiency varies from 14 to 21%, depending on silicon quality and fabrication process.
Solar thermal ‘concentrating’ power stations (CSP) can only use direct sunlight and are therefore dependent on very sunny locations. Southern Europe has a technical potential for this technology which far exceeds local demand. The various solar thermal technologies have good prospects for further development and cost reductions. Because of their more simple design, ‘Fresnel’ collectors are considered as an option for additional cost trimming. The efficiency of central receiver systems can be increased by producing compressed air at a temperature of up to 10,000C°, which is then used to run a combined gas and steam turbine.
The learning factor for PV modules has been fairly constant over the last 30 years with costs reducing by 20% each time the installed capacity doubles, indicating a high rate of technical learning. Assuming a globally installed capacity of 1,500 GW by between 2030 and 2040 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, and with an electricity output of 2,600 TWh/a, we can expect that generation costs of around 4-8 €cents/kWh (depending on the region) will be achieved. During the following five to ten years, PV will become competitive with retail electricity prices in many parts of the world, and competitive with fossil fuel costs by 2030.
Thermal storage systems are a way for CSP electricity generators to reduce costs. The Spanish Andasol 1 plant, for example, is equipped with molten salt storage with a capacity of 7.5 hours. A higher level of full load operation can be realised by using a thermal storage system and a large collector field. Although this leads to higher investment costs, it reduces the cost of electricity generation. Depending on the level of irradiation and mode of operation, it is expected that long term future electricity generation costs of 5-8 €cents/kWh can be achieved. This presupposes rapid market introduction in the next few years.
table 4.6: photovoltaics (PV) cost assumptions
table 4.7: concentrating solar power (CSP) cost assumptions
INCLUDING ADDITIONAL COSTS FOR GRID INTEGRATION OF UP TO 25% OF PV INVESTMENT
INCLUDING COSTS FOR HEAT STORAGE AND ADDITIONAL SOLAR FIELDS
SCENARIO
SCENARIO
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
E[R]
Investment costs (€/kWp) O & M costs €/(kW/a) O & M = Operation and maintenance.
44
2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
E[R]
2,817 1,733 1,246 40 29 16
967 11
785 11
799 11
Investment costs (€/kWp) O & M costs €/(kW/a) O & M = Operation and maintenance.
8,667 6,501 5,000 4,334 3,982 3,630 335 260 200 173 159 145