ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE EU 27 ENERGY OUTLOOK
4 scenarios for a future energy supply |
These scenarios by no means claim to predict the future; they simply describe and compare two potential development pathways out of the broad range of possible ‘futures’. The Energy [R]evolution scenarios are designed to indicate the efforts and actions required to achieve their ambitious objectives and to illustrate the options we have at hand to change our energy supply system into one that is truly sustainable. 4.1 scenario background
SCENARIO BACKGROUND
The scenarios in this report were jointly commissioned by Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council from the Systems Analysis group of the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, part of the German Aerospace Center (DLR). The supply scenarios were calculated using the MESAP/PlaNet simulation model adopted in the previous Energy [R]evolution studies.28 The new energy demand projections were developed from the University of Utrecht, Netherlands, based on an analysis of the future potential for energy efficiency measures in 2012. The biomass potential calculated for previous editions, judged according to Greenpeace sustainability criteria, has been developed by the German Biomass Research Centre in 2009 and has been further reduced for precautionary principles. The future development pathway for car technologies is based on a special report produced in 2012 by the Institute of Vehicle Concepts, DLR for Greenpeace International. Finally the Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) analysed the employment effects of the Energy [R]evolution and Reference scenarios. 4.1.1 status and future projections for renewable heating technologies
EREC and DLR undertook detailed research about the current renewable heating technology markets, market forecasts, cost projections and state of the technology development. The cost projection as well as the technology option have been used as an input information for this new Energy [R]evolution scenario. 4.2 population development Future population development is an important factor in energy scenario building because population size affects the size and composition of energy demand, directly and through its impact on economic growth and development. The Energy [R]evolution scenario uses the UNEP World Population Prospect 2010 projection for population development.
4.3 economic growth Economic growth is a key driver for energy demand. Since 1971, each 1% increase in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been accompanied by a 0.6% increase in primary energy consumption. The decoupling of energy demand and GDP growth is therefore a prerequisite for an energy revolution. Most global energy/economic/environmental models constructed in the past have relied on market exchange rates to place countries in a common currency for estimation and calibration. This approach has been the subject of considerable discussion in recent years, and an alternative has been proposed in the form of purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. Purchasing power parities compare the costs in different currencies of a fixed basket of traded and non-traded goods and services and yield a widelybased measure of the standard of living. This is important in analysing the main drivers of energy demand or for comparing energy intensities among countries. Although PPP assessments are still relatively imprecise compared to statistics based on national income and product trade and national price indexes, they are considered to provide a better basis for a scenario development.29 Thus all data on economic development in WEO 2011 refers to purchasing power adjusted GDP. However, as WEO 2011 only covers the time period up to 2035, the projections for 2035-2050 for the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on our own estimates. Prospects for GDP growth have decreased considerably since the previous study, due to the financial crisis at the beginning of 2009, although underlying growth trends continue much the same. GDP growth in all regions is expected to slow gradually over the coming decades. World GDP is assumed to grow on average by 3.8% per year over the period 2009-2030, compared to 3.1% from 1971 to 2007, and on average by 3.1% per year over the entire modelling period (2009-2050). China and India are expected to grow faster than other regions, followed by the Middle East, Africa, remaining Non-OECD Asia, and Eastern Europe/Eurasia. The Chinese economy will slow as it becomes more mature, but will nonetheless become the largest in the world in PPP terms early in the 2020s. GDP in Europe (EU 27) is assumed to grow by on average 1.6% per year over the projection period.
table 4.1: population development projections (IN MILLIONS)
EU 27
2009
2015
2020
2025
2030
2040
2050
499
506
511
514
516
515
512
source UNEP WORLD POPULATION PROSPECT 2010.
40
references 28 ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION: A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK’, GREENPEACE INTERNATIONAL, 2007, 2008 AND 2010. 29 NORDHAUS, W, ‘ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF OUTPUT IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC-ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS: PURCHASING POWER PARITY OR MARKET EXCHANGE RATES?’, REPORT PREPARED FOR IPCC EXPERT MEETING ON EMISSION SCENARIOS, US-EPA WASHINGTON DC, JANUARY 12-14, 2005.