M2025 Community Visioning – A partnership towards a preferred future
Overview 1. 2. 3. 4.
Origins behind Maroochy 2025 The road map - process Mapping the future (FS tools) Integrating Concepts - walking through 2025 stages 5. Key Lessons
Origins behind Maroochy 2025
What is Maroochy 2025? Combination of several concepts: • Sustainable Development (Agenda 21) • International Assoc. Public Participation principles • Community Visioning & Capacity Building • Applied Action Learning • Anticipatory Democracy
What is Visioning? ‘Visioning’ ……………….. simply a process by which a community envisions the future it prefers or truly desires! Action planning……….. planning how to achieve the Vision.
Maroochy 2025 Why do it? • To manage the effects of rapid change • To provide an opportunity for the community to participate • To develop actions to support a sustainable community • Opportunity to build community capacity and leadership www.maroochy2025.net
How will Maroochy 2025 affect the Shire? - Outcomes • • • • • •
Outcomes for the Community Energy Sense of purpose Expose Tensions Debate future Vision = Hope Questioning
Outcomes for the Council • Visions and actions for new corporate plan & planning scheme • New partnerships • Integration opportunities
Origins of Maroochy 2025? Two Strands: • Portland /Oregon Model of Community Visioning – Ames, S. ([1993] 1998) • Foresight / Futures Studies – Inayatullah, S. (2002)
The Roadmap - process
2025 Visioning Process • Based on the “Oregon Model”
• • • •
(Ames, S, 1993)
Profile: Where are we now? Trends: Where are we going? Vision: Where do we want to be? Action Plan: How do we get there?
www.maroochy2025.net
The “Oregon Model” 1. Where are we now?
2. Where are we going?
3. Where do we want to be?
4. How do we get there?
Maroochy 2025 Background paper
Drivers of Change
Vision Statement
Action Plan
* Descriptive Information * Community Values
* Trend Information * Probable Scenario
* Preferred Scenario * Community Vision
www.maroochy2025.net
* Goals, Strategies & Actions * Action, Agendas & Priorities
The Maroochy 2025 process
Mapping the Future (FS Tools)
Mapping the Future (FS Tools) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
The Futures Triangle Emerging Issues Analysis The Futures Landscape Casual Layered Analysis Scenario Generation & Planning Visioning
1. Futures Triangle Pull of the Future: shared vision
The Plausible Future Push of the Future
Weights
2. Emerging Issues Analysis Problem
Trend
Seeds Emerging issue
30 Years Time
The Star vision
3. Futures Landscape
Mountain Tops – alternative futures Chess Board Strategy Jungle – survival of the fittest …
4. Causal Layered Analysis Litany Systems Worldview Myth/Metaphor
4. Causal Layered Analysis:
How one frames the problem‌‌ creates the solution Language is not neutral, but part of the analysis
By Dr Sohail Inayatullah
Causal Layered Analysis (H & V) Level
Problem
Solution
Who Can solve it
Source
Litany (Problem & Visible)
Problem seems difficult to solve
Short term approaches
Government
Television/ Newspapers
Systemic (Causes)
Problem because of short term historical factors
Integrated approaches – systemic solutions
Partnerships between sectors of society – Government plus industries
Policy Journals, editorials
Worldview Constituted by Transform,
Writers, philosophers, those outside the dominant discourse
Peripheral journals,
Myth / Metaphor
Collective Work of unconscious artists, often guided by visionaries, visions
frame of analysis – deep structures
rethink self and others, change paradigm
Constituted core myth
Alternative stories
5. Alternative Scenario Generation Positive
Scenario A
Scenario B
2nd Critical Concern For future
Positive
Scenario C
Scenario D
1st Critical Concern of Future
6. Visioning Guided Creative Visualisations Drawing/ painting
Strategic Questioning
Integrating the Concepts Maroochy 2025
Futures Landscape as frame Oregon Model of of reference Community Visioning Star: (vision)
X
Mountain tops: (alternative scenarios) Chessboard: (strategy) Jungle: (survival)
Our Alternative Future Scenarios Natural Environment, valued by Local Economy
Maroochy By Decree
Maroochy Connected Learning Villages Learning, Participatory Community Leadership
Hierarchal, Reactive Leadership
Maroochy Metropolis
E-Maroochy Cyber City
Natural Environment, under valued by Local Economy
CLA as a frame of reference *Oregon Model of Community Visioning
Litany* Systems* Actor using the layered ‘Lens’ of CLA
Worldview Myth/Metaphor
CLA ensures holistic image of the preferred future 1 3 Litany1 Systems2 Worldview 3 Myth/Metaphor 4 Collective unconscious story
2 3 4
Core values and principles
Causal Layered Analysis Layers
Results of Maroochy preferred scenario
Scenario
Maroochy’s Connected Learning Villages
Values
Long term searching for deeper values. Honouring grassroots involvement.
Litany
Sustain our “bush and Beach” culture
Systemic (STEEP)
(S) Network of learning communities; (T) subsidised and equity of access to technologies; (E) Environment valued + eco-architecture; (E) local /global ecoefficient; (P) Participatory and empowered community governance.
Worldview
Connected & Inclusive assumptions
Myth/Metaphor
“Awakening out of sleep” / Rainforest
What is in the Vision & Plan Community Task Force & Wider Community
Expressed as:
Vision
•Words(Statement/ Narrative) •Image(s) •Metaphors
Key Focus Areas
•Principles •Goals(objectives) •Indicators
Tripartite Action Planning Teams: CTF Members, MSC Staff, External Stakeholders
Action Plan
Maroochy 2025 Action Plan
Maroochy Shire Corporate Plan
www.maroochy2025.net
•Strategies •Actions •Lead Role •Potential •Partners •Cost Range / Potential Sources •Priority/Timeline
M2025 STATISTICS Community Participation 3,840
32,514 3,368 40,208
individuals have contributed (residents and stakeholders) 3% participation rate Community hours of their time Key vision ideas collected since April 2003 Public responses
Data Collection methods Visual drawing and paintings
Web site chat forum
Qualitative surveys x 4
Interviews and questionnaires
Staff workshops
Community workshops
Schools Vision Summit
Community Task Force
Community summit
Key Lessons
What worked • Combination of Oregon Model and Futures Studies concepts • Anticipatory Action Learning: – Project Team – Community Taskforce – Action Planning Teams
• Anticipatory Democracy
Anticipatory Action Learning Formula for action learning is L=P+Q Anticipatory Action Learning =
• • •
Questioning - assumptions at every level: the mission, goals…. Anticipatory - scanning the future, using all our ways of knowing Participatory – including others, since non-inclusion of one variable can change outcomes in unanticipated ways
Anticipatory Democracy (AD) “All human beings are futurists� Jim Dator: Futurist, University Hawaii
AD = embedding democratic, participatory and community based consultations into decisions about the future
What didn’t work so well • New Council (2004) election one week before the Visioning Summit… – Timing OK – Political fear (from new Councillors) about heading towards community governance so openly expressed by 300+ @ summit
• Alternative Scenarios @ summit were a focus of dispute for the critics
Outcomes People learnt that: • They have the capacity to create alternative futures, • Challenge decisions or perspectives, • A community vision could be agreed upon, and • Anticipatory Democracy works to keep the politicians focussed or aligned with the vision
Tensions • Clash of Worldviews perhaps yet to come in the implementation of the vision • Poor community confidence in political follow
• Participants worldviews were certainly challen • Transformation from egocentric and ethnocen
Appendices: M2025 process
Personal Change • Respondents were asked whether M2025 had made them think more critically about the future… • 69% said yes
Political Cynicism
Methodologies • Futures Studies: – Anticipatory forecasting • Futures landscape • Futures Triangle
– New Episteme (limits of knowledge) • Causal Layered Analysis
– Alternative futures • Scenarios
– Creative visioning / imagery – Backcasting
• Qualitative research • Community development principles • Community consultation
METAPHOR
 Image by Ms Renee Baldwin: Indigenous Artist
Activities by Stages
Drivers of Change in Maroochy • Population growth and increase in diversity • Ageing population, housing affordability and decrease in social capital • Need for sufficient employment options for our kids • Importance of natural environment on our way of life • Community need for accountability in public decision making • The wish for harmony and a healthy community life
www.maroochy2025.net