Free MLB Release For 8/26/2012: We're backing the St Louis Cardinals -127 today in their rubber-match showdown with the Reds. Since it's our highest priced play on the day, it gets the call as the free release. The Cardinals have too big of an edge on the mound to ignore it. Adam Wainwright will toe the rubber for St Louis. Wainwright checks in with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP overall. But he's posted some really impressive numbers of late. In his last 9 games, Wainwright has only surrendered 2 home runs. He's only allowed 9 runs in his last 7 starts, and has not given up more than 2 runs in any game during that stretch. And to top it off, Wainwright's posted a 1.23 ERA to go with a 0.91 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
In contrast, Homer Bailey checks in with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP overall. Those numbers increase when pitching at home to a 5.42 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. Bailey has allowed 4 runs or greater in 3 of his last 5 starts. He's also surrendered 7 home runs in his last 6. And Homer Bailey has walked 13 batters in his last 6 outings as well. He may have a winning record, but that's because he's been lucky enough to have solid run support. We suspect that won't be the case today with Wainwright on the mound for the Cards.
The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Homer Bailey is 2-5 against the moneyline in his last 7 starts against a team with a winning record at the Great American Ballpark. He's also just 3-8 against the moneyline in his last 11 starts against St Louis. The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss, and 38-18 in their last 56 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Adam Wainwright has cashed in 4 times straight. Look for the Cards to bounce back big at the plate today against Bailey. iSeeWinners.com