Economic Freedom, Middle Income Trap and institutional reform in Vietnam Nguyen Quang A NFN, 21-22 Oct. 2013, Bangkok
1. Economic freedom→ Economic Development • GDP/Capita: $ 98 (1990) →$1.596(2012) • Gave back (partially) E.F. to citizens • Unleash the existing economic potentials
1.Economic Freedom
2. Why middle Income Trap? • • • • • • •
~ $ 6K-12K ~ $1.7K ??? An early appearance of M.I.T? Wrong E. policies (2000?) 2006 onwards SOEs Banks Public Investment
Contribution to GDP 2000-2008 (%) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
SOEs P FDI
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
People ownership of Land
# Private Commercial Banks
May 2008, reg. capital 52,778 B VNĐ [3.2 B$] 30 times of 1998 growth rate of 45%/year (15 Jun. 2012: 167,238.8 BVNĐ ~ 8 B$ ~ 75 times ~ Growth 40%/year? ← Decree 141 of 22 Nov 2006) 35 30 25 20
Operating New R-U Conv.
15 10 5 0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
3. Institutational reforms Land reforms SOEs Banking Political Reforms PRESURES from - Inside - Outside (TPP, AEC, ‌)
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