Autumn/Winter 2021 teaser by FORESIGHT Media Group

FORESIGHT — 13 Climate & Energy

DECARBONISATION THROUGH COLLABORATION

Let cities join up the dots of the energy transition

FORESIGHT Climate & Energy AUTUMN / WINTER 2021

PUBLISHER FORESIGHT Media Group

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EDITOR David Weston david@foresightdk.com

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The global battle to combat covid-19 shows what a coordinated joint effort across agencies, layers of government and national borders can achieve. Collaboration, whether it is to create life-saving vaccines or trial a zero-carbon community in Antarctica (page 16), can leverage gains more effectively than any individual entity can do on its own. Collaboration, not competition, is the route to net-zero. In London, 4250 people die prematurely each year from breathing bad air. One in four Londoners has considered moving out of the city because of the poor air quality and noise. Yet on current trends by 2050 more than 70% of the world’s population will live in cities, up from the 50% today already responsible for 80% of global GDP, two-thirds of global energy use and more than 70% of annual global carbon emissions. While it is national governments that take the strategic decisions essential to direct businesses and citizens on the pathway to net-zero, most implementation takes place locally. Even so, cities tend to be seen as playing only a B-role in the energy transition. Yet it is local governments and municipal administrations that best understand citizens’ needs and wants and know how to use the available resources. A clear message that emerges in our 13th print issue of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy is that every country’s—or every city’s—carbon reduction strategies will be different, driven by different starting points, different cultures, different challenges, different raw commodities and different major emitters to abate. Whatever the strategy, common to all regions is that a successful transition will take multiple, highly coordinated actions. The electrification of public transport is one example of multilevel coordination between governments and the private sector. The shift to all-electric buses (page 42) is not simply about buying new vehicles. Charging hubs are needed—established in close cooperation with the grid system operator—which serve both private cars and public transport at a single location selected for user convenience. It is the kind of joined-up thinking so often missing in the energy transition. Take the case of Austria and Ireland, countries with lots of renewables electricity in their grids but which have failed to take advantage of it in their bus fleets (chart page 45). Uncoordinated implementation of strategies are seriously hindering rapid decarbonisation. Ultimately, our in-depth look at the electrification of cities shows the energy transition can be accelerated through a critical mass of well-coordinated smaller changes made at a local level. A bottom-up approach to the sweeping overhaul of energy systems required may also carry less economic risk than a top-down implementation of uncoordinated policy—and it may make for a faster transition, too.

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David Weston EDITOR

CONTENT

MARKETS

BUSINESS

TECHNOLOGY

WHAT NET ZERO LOOKS LIKE AROUND THE WORLD

POWER TO THE PUBLIC

CITIES BATTLE TO BEAT THE HEAT

Seven perspectives of climate action from around the world

Municipal utilities look to private partnerships to secure their future in a rapidly changing energy landscape

As demand for space cooling grows, the race is on to find low-carbon solutions

PAGE 8

PAGE 30

POLICY

SOURCE NEW INFORMATION FROM OLD DATA

WORK TOGETHER TO CUT EMISSIONS

Accelerate Europe’s Renovation Wave with economies of scale and collaboration between neighbours PAGE 18

CITIES

PAGE 36

ALL ABOARD

Digital twin technology supports complex electricity systems

The switch to a fleet of electric buses for public transport is achieved with collaboration between all stakeholders

PAGE 50

PAGE 42

CITIES WARMED BY HEATED MARKET FOR POWER CONTRACTS

DECARBONISING HEAT AT CITY SCALE

City authorities eager to cut their electricity bills are looking at the PPA market

The role of heat pumps is central to decarbonising district networks PAGE 56

PAGE 60

TRUSTED MESSENGERS

Residents in the US are taking climate action into their own hands and forming co-ops to bulk-buy solar panels PAGE 24

FORESIGHT

WHAT NET ZERO LOOKS LIKE AROUND THE WORLD Cities are key enablers of the energy transition. But each city in every area of the world will have a different set of priorities and ideas of how to achieve net-zero by 2050. FORESIGHT examines a city from each continent—and a research station—to show what this global action looks like from seven different perspectives

FORESIGHT

TEXT Katie Kouchakji PHOTO © International Polar Foundation - René Robert, Afiq Fatah, Lucas Kohoko, Alana Harris, Abdullah Ali, Marc Olivier Jodoin, Matias Santana, Yoel Winkler, Izuddin Helmi Adnan

MARKETS

ver the past two years, national governments and businesses have adopted net-zero emissions targets, aligning themselves with the goal to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as agreed at the 2015 UN climate change meeting in Paris and, crucially, with what the scientific community says is required to avert catastrophic climate change. Cities are also stepping up their ambition. Even though it is often the national leaders that make the headlines, cities are an important part of the energy transition. City governments and local administrations better understand the needs of their citizens, and the local resources available to fulfill them. More than 700 urban areas have signed up to the Cities Race to Zero campaign, led by non-profit C40, ICLEI— a global network of more than 2500 local and regional governments committed to sustainable urban development— the Global Covenant of Mayors, CDP (formerly the Carbon Disclosure Project), United Cities and Local Governments, World Resources Institute and WWF. Signatories to the initiative commit to halving their emissions by 2030 and reaching net-zero by 2050. “Cities play a critical role in delivering a healthy, resilient, zero-carbon recovery,” said Nigel Topping, UK High Level Climate Champion for COP26, when new signatories were announced in April 2021 in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. “Increasing climate ambitions from cities and subnational governments should give countries the impetus to pursue mid- and long-term emissions reductions, and ultimately deliver the promise of the Paris Agreement.” FORESIGHT

POLICY Thousands of buildings across Europe will need to be renovated on an unprecedented scale if climate and greenhouse gas reduction targets are to be met. Lawmakers’ minds are turning to how best to undertake the Herculean task

Work together to cut emissions

In order to help split the cost and maximise the impact, mass renovations are starting to be looked at as a form of collective infrastructure project for cities and towns, rather than simply an obligation that individual building owners must fulfil at some point in the future.

NEIGHBOURLY PLANS Lawmakers, city planners and other officials involved with trying to make the Renovation Wave’s goals a reality are considering a neighbourhood approach to get it done. It is a form of planning that can build economies of scale and address the diversity of the building stock while keeping the people who actually own and live in buildings firmly within the loop. According to a report by the European Parliament, published last year, neighbourhood and community action will be essential in greening Europe’s building stock, especially if it is boosted by new tools called integrated renovation plans (IRPs). The author of that report, Irish MEP Ciarán Cuffe, insists that, “The neighbourhood approach is the best way forward,” and that citizen-led renovation projects in Belgium and in the Netherlands, “Can be emulated throughout the EU member states.” Cuffe points out that such a strategy includes local authorities, as well as yielding other energy transition benefits, such as building out e-charging infrastructure and folding energy storage into the mix. Not only FORESIGHT

Working together Highlighting joint opportunities to decarbonise can accelerate and lower the costs of the energy transition

TEXT Sam Morgan ILLUSTRATION Masha Krasnova-Shabaeva

hey are statistics that bear repeating: 40% of the EU’s energy supply is soaked up by the buildings sector, which produces about 36% of greenhouse gas emissions. It is why the sector is often labelled a “sleeping giant” by members of the climate and energy community. In Europe, around 75% of the building stock is classed as energy inefficient but most of it will still be in use by 2050. Despite the constant uptick of renewable energy capacity, it alone will not solve this particular problem. The EU’s Green Deal has an entire chapter dedicated to buildings in recognition of the problem. Under the European Commission’s Renovation Wave programme, the goal is to at least double the percentage of buildings renovated every year—currently barely scraping above 1%—by the end of the decade. While these policies hold huge potential, upfront costs and time demands are substantial. Entirely refurbishing a large building is an expensive undertaking that takes a long time to complete but even partial renovation still requires sizeable planning and initial capital outlay. So if the works are not done correctly or the resulting energy performance level is not fit for purpose or future-proof, renovations risk becoming somewhat of a zero-sum game. The EU is likely to set minimum standards for energy performance and materials to reduce that risk.

FORESIGHT

POLICY

Investment shift to transport and buildings for net-zero Europe For Europe to reach net-zero an estimated investment of €28 trillion over the 30 years to 2050 is required

Total capital expenditure in EU-27, trillion euros

% of total capital expenditure in EU-27, 2021-50

9% 43%

14% 8

3% 1%

Power

30%

Transportation

4 SOURCE: McKinsey & Company

Buildings

Total capital expenditure, 2021-50

€28 trillion

Industry

Agriculture 0

Infrastructure 2021-30

2031-40

2041-50

The EU’s energy performance of buildings directive (EPBD), due to be updated before the end of 2021, already obligates national governments to make this sort of support widely available. “Member states are required to facilitate access to appropriate mechanisms for accessible and transparent advisory tools, such as one-stop-shops for consumers and energy advisory services,” the directive states. However, national governments have faced accusations from climate groups and industry associations of failing to implement the EPBD’s tenets. The reviewed rules will later this year likely reiterate their importance. Nevertheless, this brand of technical assistance is getting more and more attention. Commission officials involved with setting energy policy have suggested that one-stop shops are the perfect tool to roll out the neighbourhood approach and that it is now up to governments to ensure they are funding them properly. FORESIGHT

Earlier this year the European Local Energy Assistance (ELENA), a joint initiative with the EIB, got an additional €35 million in EU funding to continue its work with local, regional and national authorities on providing technical support. ELENA has issued grants worth €200 million and enabled investment of more than €7 billion since it set up shop in 2009.

TAILORED ASSISTANCE Public buildings are ripe candidates for mandatory renovation targets, as their management is ultimately the responsibility of governments and other authorities that have the power to fund refurbishment works. For private citizens and companies, it is not so easy. UIPI’s Emmanuelle Causse insists that, “The key to success will be to combine different strategies and to first incentivise rather than impose renovation on owners and occupants.” She continues: “One way to do so can be to develop a local approach to renovation. Beyond simple 21

POLICY

economy of scale arguments, it has true potential if it is based on tailored local assistance.” Such assistance includes one-stop shops, peer learning, targeted funding programmes and local tax advantages or rebates that encourage district renovation, with added incentives for areas that act quickly and adopt renovation plans. Causse says long-term goals and inclusive decision making will make or break some renovation efforts. Who actually decides on the terms of the plan will also be a crucial factor in meeting targets.

CASE BY CASE Different strategies will be needed in different countries, not just because of economic or geographical factors but also because of cultural, historical and political issues that may make certain approaches less likely to work. Hungarian central bank governor György Matolcsy recently stated that he, “Strongly objects to the idea of reigniting central planning in a new area, called green transition.” He was responding to an article in the Financial Times newspaper that suggested sustainable finance needs such a system to work. In Bulgaria, a flagship renovation programme has been running for more than a decade but has failed to attract many takers. Only a small fraction of buildings have been refurbished as a result, despite the government aiming high with its targets. Fewer than 3000 apartment blocks have been upgraded since the programme began in 2005 and the quality of those refurbishments are questionable, according to experts. Genady Kondarev from climate think tank E3G explains that part of the reason the programme has underperformed is because grants covering 100% of costs have been issued, rather than relying on co-financing agreements. “The government claimed that there was no other way to get things started. But what they caused was a perverse incentive as people expected that this level of incentive will continue to be given,” he explains. In reality, many of the renovations have been limited to new window glazing and exterior insulation, with few extra upgrades thrown in, as the budget cannot accommodate more in-depth works. “People had no interest whatsoever in quality renovation works and energy efficiency targets were quite superficial as they only aimed for C grade buildings. There needs to be at least a small contribution from people and a maximum threshold for grants,” Kondarev adds.

GRANT LIMITS A well-designed limit on the costs that can be funded by grants would enable lower-income families to renovate their homes with little-to-no investment on their side while incentivising richer homeowners to 22

invest extra cash in more advanced energy efficiency measures such as heat pumps. This methodology is used by the EU on larger scale projects as a way to increase private investments and to also spur a feeling of ownership, which is essential if further works or investments are needed down the line. Belgium has launched a few support schemes that have shown promise, including an ambitious plan by the southern region of Wallonia to boost renovation rates to 3% per year—up from the current less than 1% rate—with the offer of 0% interest loans and technical assistance thrown in to help citizen cooperatives. However, in the communes of Brussels, there are still political bridges to cross, as local authorities are wary of allocating budgets to renovation schemes proposed by councillors or officials hailing from a different political family. Essentially, political leaders are starting to realise that well-executed refurbishments are likely to be popular initiatives that could be a vote-winner in local elections. It is a factor that could hamper progress on large-scale projects.

“Political leaders are starting to realise that well-executed refurbishments are likely to be popular initiatives that could be a vote-winner in local elections”

AMBITIOUS PROPOSAL The European Commission is likely to be ambitious with its proposal for an updated buildings directive in late 2021, with extra focus on tools like minimum energy performance standards and a better definition of what counts as a “deep renovation”. Without those measures, the Renovation Wave and the top-line targets of the Green Deal itself will be more difficult to achieve and the Commission is in a stronger position now—in terms of climate policy— than it was a few years ago when the current rules were set. All the ingredients needed to push a neighbourhood approach through energy policies and national schemes are starting to come together. But linking the local-level needs and demand with the support required to fulfil them will be the key to success. • FORESIGHT

CITIES Governments are increasingly legislating for the building of new net-zero housing. But improving the green credentials of the existing housing stock is a much more difficult path to navigate. Now communities are being empowered to clean up their homes through collective action

Trusted messengers

EDUCATION KEY Within the next few months, RMI will launch a model similar to solarise for heat pumps. A barrier for heat pumps, notes Shea, is that many older homes 24

would have to upgrade their electrical network. Furthermore, contractors need to be educated, perhaps from local governments, he says, adding that airsource heat pumps only get a $300 federal incentive, although geothermal heat pumps get a 26% tax credit for installation costs. The involvement of frontline community organisations as “trusted messengers” to build trust among local residents is essential, he adds, noting that university researchers found in a 2019 study that even after correcting for home ownership, areas of Black- and Hispanic-majority communities in the US have installed less rooftop solar PV compared with no-majority communities by 61% and 45%, respectively. White-majority areas have installed 37% more. Access to financing is also needed for poorer people, says Shea. Solar United Neighbours (SUN), an NGO based in Washington DC, has facilitated 316 “solar co-ops” in a dozen states over the past 12 years consisting of 6325 households, says the organisation's Ben Delman. The co-ops help members buy a system that is installed on their home. Each co-op member signs their contract individually with an installer that is chosen by the coop. Co-op members choose the installer through a competitive bidding process, he says. Residents are keen to be less dependent on the local utility and save on their electricity bill while reducing emissions, he says. In a state such as Texas— where the grid was knocked out by a severe winter storm in February 2021—people are becoming interested in solar plus storage, he adds. FORESIGHT

Community spirit Solarise programmes in the US have made access to solar panels cheaper

TEXT Ros Davidson ILLUSTRATION Masha Krasnova-Shabaeva

ommunity-powered clean energy or electrification is increasingly fuelling emissions cuts in cities. Neighbours are able to club together for efficiencies and economies of scale, help with financing and—importantly—basic education on the benefits. For community renewable energy or heat pumps, peer-to-peer influence is key. Installers also get a big reduction in the soft costs of reaching potential customers and they can bulk order. Local governments may partner with such programmes to cut pollution and progress towards their climate goals. So-called “solarise” programmes have sprung up around the United States, tapping into what Ryan Shea, from US-based energy research organisation Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), describes as the country’s “solar contagion”. In these schemes, local neighbours club together, often led by a city, to bulk buy rooftop solar systems. RMI works with local governments to increase the adoption of such programmes. Shea says that an advantage of such solarise programmes is that enabling legislation is not needed, as opposed to the laws required for community solar, in which neighbours share the output of an off-site solar array typically of 1-5 megawatts (MW) in capacity.

FORESIGHT

CITIES

Sparking renewables investment Cumulative co-op renewable capacity, owned and under contract

MW 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 2010 Wind

2011

2012 Hydro

2013

2014

2016

Biomass and other

SUN works on outreach with local partner NGOs and local governments to educate, build momentum and create word-of-mouth promotion. Pricing is competitive, though not discounted, Delman says, and permits can be submitted and picked up in bulk. If a utility is slow to interconnect, 20-30 households adopting solar at the same time can add pressure to accelerate the process, he says. A major barrier for bulk buying is lack of basic education, he says, about pricing, grid connection and what happens when the sun does not shine. Other barriers include supporting families in rented accommodation and properties with shaded roofs or too old to support solar panels. SUN says that it tends to find local governments keen to work with solarise programmes, in large part because of city, county or state goals on carbon, though he says cities should streamline permitting to speed up solar adoption. Some utilities are also limiting the size of the solar panel system that an individual household can install, by saying they would not let the system connect to the electric grid, or that they will not give the customer the net metered credit the solar owner should earn 26

2015

2017 Solar

2018

2019

2020

*Does not include federal hydro

from the system, says Delman. Some utilities across the US are also reducing the payment households can get under net metering rules, he adds. In July 2021, the government-run research institution National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) released a tool called SolarAPP+, to help streamline permitting of rooftop solar. The online web portal automates plan reviews and the issuing of permits to qualified businesses or individuals. NREL is working to have municipalities adopt it. Still, the cost of installing rooftop solar in the US, as much as $12,000-15,000 without federal tax credits, can often be too steep, Delman concedes. Groups such as SUN are working to try and get those who install solar to be eligible for grants instead of a tax credit. Payback because of cheaper electricity bills can take years.

COLLECTIVE PURCHASING Community solar, as opposed to bulk-buying solar for multiple consumers, has flourished in the US and in parts of Europe such as the Netherlands. Customers buy or lease a portion of the project and they typiFORESIGHT

SOURCE: NRECA

CITIES

cally receive electric bill credit for the output generated by their share of the array, which can be sited anywhere in a local utility’s jurisdiction. The system is more suitable for tenants and those in multi-unit buildings, those without the cash to install their own solar, and for those in single-family homes who do not have a sunny, strong roof. Half of American households cannot install their own rooftop solar for various reasons. Jenny Heeter of NREL, says community solar has taken off in the past five years in the US. By the end of 2020, 3.3 gigawatts (GW) of community solar had been installed in America, and some 5.7 GW was in development or waiting to be installed as of late September, according to NREL. Still, community installations comprise only 4% of the total solar market, notes Nicole Steele of the US Department of Energy (DOE). The federal government is currently trying to ramp up the penetration of community solar in the next year or two, she says.

“Governments are not best at figuring out something disruptive— they have a much slower and more risk-controlled environment”

Some help is available for low- and moderate-income US residents who want to sign up for community solar. Maryland has a new seven-year pilot programme that provides incentives to solar companies to provide the service to low- and moderate-income customers. It also sets aside programme capacity for each area of the state of which 125 MW is set aside for projects focused on lower-income customers, says the Maryland Public Services Commission. The National Community Solar Partnership (NCSP) programme, overseen by NREL, is a coalition of community solar stakeholders working to expand access to affordable community solar to every American household by 2025. It helps with logistics, siting, programme design and financing. Nationally, some US states add an incentive for the output of community solar panels, such as a certain number of cents per kilowatt-hour on a customer’s bill. Eleven US states do not allow community solar to be built at all. On October 8th, 2021, DOE announced a new NCSP goal: to enable community solar systems to power the equivalent of five million households by 2025 and create $1 billion in energy bill savings. FORESIGHT

BULK BUYING BENEFITS One successful neighbourhood electrification programme is the university city of Ann Arbor, west of Detroit in Michigan. Ann Arbor Solarise is a community bulk-buy scheme that has offered substantial savings for participants. Two years ago, Julie Roth contacted the city, excited about solar but unhappy that her home would be reassessed for property taxes if she installed panels, a policy that has since been changed. A “solarise” meeting was held in Julie’s living room with 50 people in attendance to learn about installing rooftop solar panels. Ann Arbor’s solarise programme sees a lead resident, the organiser, choose a PV panel installer— approved by Michigan Saves, a non-profit green bank—and the resident recruits neighbours, colleagues and friends to sign up. The city negotiates discounts with the installer: a three household project gets 5% off, seven get 10% off and ten or more households get a discount of 15%. With federal tax incentives, the total savings for most residents is 41%, notes Missy Stults of the city’s Office of Sustainability and Innovation. So far, 285 city households have accessed solar, two megawatts of capacity have been installed and the savings in installation costs have totalled $927,000. Ann Arbor also now expedites solar permits. Roth—now employed by the city as a senior energy analyst and to coordinate the programme— stresses the importance of each bulk-buy group having a lead resident. If only the city organised outreach it would soon hit the limit of who can be reached through conventional municipal channels, she says. Ann Arbor is a progressive community with a high proportion of politically active citizens with environmental savvy, says Roth. “That said, we have folks participate in the groups from the townships and small towns surrounding Ann Arbor as well and in this way, the viral spread goes beyond our borders into communities that tend to be more conservative as well,” she adds. “The financial and resilience benefits speak to folks that might be less moved by the environmental arguments alone.” Ann Arbor’s model has an advantage for relatively small communities. The community does not need Requests for Proposals to choose a PV installer, as often happens with solarise programmes elsewhere in America. Costly lawyers are also avoided. The next task for the city is a community solar programme for apartments or condo buildings so residents might share in the benefit of rooftop panels. 27

BUSINESS Municipal electricity utilities have a long history in Europe, with more emerging as cities look to lead the energy transition. The model has obvious advantages but has also suffered setbacks in some markets. In an increasingly competitive landscape, using the benefits of private partners may be the way forward

POWER TO THE PUBLIC

A jewel in the sun Barcelona Energia became the largest publicly owned energy provider in Spain within just three years of launching

FORESIGHT

TEXT Jason Deign PHOTO Sander Bux & Raimond Klavins

panish utility customers watched in horror as electricity prices reached new heights on an almost weekly basis during the summer of 2021. Pushed by soaring natural gas costs that affected energy markets across Europe, the price rises saw Spain’s top three electric companies raking in revenues of €700,000 ($820,000) an hour in July. Hard-hit customers grumbled over the profits being pocketed by utilities, but one group at least had no reason to complain. Barcelona Energía’s 4250 customers knew their electricity supplier was not taking advantage of them—because it is not allowed to. Barcelona Energía, launched in 2018, is a not-for-profit energy supplier owned by Barcelona’s city authorities. As well as serving households and businesses, the electricity provider supplies 100% renewable energy to 4700 council-owned off-takers across the Barcelona metropolitan area. In 2020, after just two years of operation and with an annual growth rate exceeding 109%, Barcelona Energía became one of the top ten electricity suppliers in a city where there are more than 250 available. As of October 2021, it is the largest publicly-owned energy provider in Spain and its success underscores how city councils can have a direct role in the energy transition by taking charge of electricity supplies. In 2021 the seemingly quaint idea of your city hall providing your electricity supply gained further support as mounting energy costs wreaked havoc among private-sector electricity providers. Although municipal utilities are still affected by high gas prices, they have to be more transparent and accountable about what happens with their money, says David Hall, a visiting professor at the University of Greenwich in London. They are also less likely to divert subsidies away from core activities and if they own the distribution infrastructure, they can use profits from this to bolster other activities, he adds.

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TECHNOLOGY Cities are feeling the heat more than outlying areas. The increased use of vegetation, reflective surfaces, building codes promoting ambitious energy efficiency standards and district cooling are being employed to provide heat relief and facilitate sustainable cooling for urban dwellers

CITIES BATTLE TO BEAT THE HEAT

of international researchers published in Nature Climate Change in January 2021. This is nearly triple the Paris Agreement objective to limit the global temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C. Since urban areas are projected to house about 70% of the global population by 2050, up from 55% in 2018, cooling will largely be a problem for cities to resolve. Cooling itself is a contributor to global warming, so scaling up while simultaneously decarbonising its energy use will be essential.

DEMAND GROWTH The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that energy demand for space cooling has more than tripled since 1990 and was responsible for 8.5% of total final electricity consumption in 2019. In a baseline scenario in its 2018 Future of Cooling report, the IEA estimates energy demand for space cooling will roughly triple from its 2016 level to reach 6200 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2050. Due largely to the increased use of renewable energy, emissions from space cooling are seen rising at a slower, but still worrisome, rate to reach 2050 million tonnes (Mt) in 2050, nearly double the 1135 Mt in 2016. “The need for cooling is seen constantly increasFORESIGHT

Up on the roof Green roofs can be 17°C-20°C cooler than conventional ones during the daytime TEXT Heather O'Brian PHOTO Erica Carr & Nazarizal Mohammad

ark, impermeable pavements and buildings dominate the grey landscape of most cities. Trees and other vegetation are often lacking. This combination gives rise to the phenomenon of urban heat islands in which the temperature of a city can be several degrees higher than surrounding areas. The problems with excessive heat are clear to anyone living in the cities where thermometers posted record highs in summer 2021, and increasingly to lawmakers, who see the health and economic impacts of the raging temperatures. In Spring 2021, three cities on three continents— Athens in Greece, Miami in the US and Freetown in Sierra Leone—each announced they would set up a new position in each local government of chief heat officer. United States president Joe Biden in September 2021 announced a plan to combat extreme heat, including in urban heat islands. The plan includes initiatives to increase cooling assistance to vulnerable communities and low-income households, better protect heat exposed workers and promote targeted solutions such as tree cover to address urban heat. By 2100, cities around the world could warm by as much as 4.4°C on average, as a result of the urban heat island effect, according to findings of a group

FORESIGHT

TECHNOLOGY

Cool comforts Projected growth in energy demand for space cooling in one IEA scenario

TWh

kWh per person

1600

2400

1200

1800

800

1200

400

600

0 China

United States

Middle East

2016

ing in all climate scenarios,” notes Irene Skoula of C40 Cities. “In most cities, heat is one of the biggest risks they are facing.” Emerging markets are expected to account for the bulk of new space cooling demand—with India, China and Indonesia alone seen representing about half of the total—the IEA points out, so what cities do in these places is critical. “Cooling is one of the mountains in front of us if you look at the drivers of climate change,” says Iain Campbell at the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), a US-based energy research organisation. “Most people have heating so the big push now is to decarbonise it, but many people who will need access to cooling don’t have it.”

DISTRICT COOLING One largely untapped, sustainable resource for cooling cities is district cooling, in which chilled water transported through insulated pipes from a central source provides cooling to a district or group of buildings. IEA figures indicate less than 4% of cooling energy used for space cooling comes from district cooling, with the greatest penetration in the US, followed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Japan. 38

Indonesia

Brazil

2050

European Union

Japan

Korea

kWh per person

District cooling is five to ten times more efficient than traditional air conditioning and can reduce energy consumption by 50%, notes Giulia Forgnone of European district energy association Euroheat & Power. Cooling sources can vary from cold water piped up from lakes, seas and rivers to waste cold and heat, which may be brought to the necessary temperature with the use of a chiller, a type of heat pump. Like district heating, district cooling makes sense in densely populated areas. District cooling is often combined with storage, so an excess capacity of chilled water during the night, for instance, can be stored for use during the day, enabling load shifting. Another benefit is that, unlike air conditioning units, district cooling does not eject waste heat. In the emirate of Dubai, which boasts the world’s highest concentration of district cooling and where temperatures exceed 40°C in the summer, district cooling has helped to limit electricity grid expansions. Dubai aims for district cooling to serve 40% of cooling needs by 2030. District cooling may also be used in more temperate climates. A district cooling network in Gothenburg, Sweden, provides about 100 gigawatt-hours FORESIGHT

Rest of World SOURCE: OECD/IEA

India

TECHNOLOGY

(GWh) of cooling a year, supplying offices, supermarkets and other customers that need refrigeration, explains Lars Holmquist of the utility Göteborg Energi. In winter, the cool source is provided by river water and in summer from waste heat. While Gothenburg’s district cooling system is destined to grow, it is not expected to rival the city’s 3.5 TWh district heating network. Holmquist sees the biggest district cooling potential in hot, densely populated areas.

URBAN PLANNING District cooling systems are easier to put into place in new developments. With the rapid rate of global population growth and urbanisation, the market will expand rapidly in the coming years, particularly in places like India and China that are facing increasing cooling demands. According to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) three-quarters of the infrastructure that will need to exist in 2050 has yet to be built, much of it in developing countries. Implementing district cooling in existing cities and neighbourhoods is far from impossible, however. “For district cooling, you need to dig holes into the ground, which is always a challenge if you live in a city but the same is true for electricity, gas and fibreoptics, so you could combine this with other people digging holes in the ground,” notes Holmquist. “The more urban planning you have, the easier and more efficient it will be.”

“Cooling is one of the mountains in front of us if you look at the drivers of climate change”

Within Europe, Paris boasts the largest district cooling system in Europe. Since 1991, Climespace, a unit of Engie, a French utility, has operated a district cooling network, with the cooling source provided by water from the River Seine and pipes placed within the sewage system to form an 86-kilometre underground network. The cooling system serves hundreds of buildings, including offices, banks, shops, hotels, the Louvre and other museums. While district cooling only has about a 2-3% market share in space cooling in Europe, Euroheat & Power’s Forgnone expects this will increase. “Cities that already have in place district cooling systems— the ones that already know this technology—plan to expand them,” she says. A lack of knowledge about FORESIGHT

the technology is one of the obstacles to the spread of district cooling in many cities, along with the higher upfront costs compared to traditional air conditioning solutions. “But in the long term, you have a big return in terms of sustainability,” Forgnone adds.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY Although cities have varying degrees of responsibility for building codes, they can enforce existing energy efficiency requirements and sometimes strengthen them, while also working with other government bodies for tighter standards. “The way buildings are designed and built, including the choice of materials used in their construction, can have a huge impact on the need for ACs [air conditioners] and the subsequent energy needed to provide cooling services,” the IEA notes. It believes that policies for more efficient air conditioners combined with policies for more efficient buildings, “Could actually keep the energy demand for cooling flat while allowing strong growth in access to cooling for populations around the world.” In Los Angeles in the US, a 2019 sustainable city plan required all new buildings to be net-zero carbon by 2030 and all new municipal buildings and major renovations to be completely electrified. Meanwhile, the Toronto Green Standard lays out the Canadian city’s sustainable design requirements for new private and city-owned developments as it moves towards zero emissions for all new buildings by 2030, building on the Ontario region’s building code.

BEYOND ELECTRICITY Not all of the solutions for cooling need to be electricity-based. RMI’s Campbell says one way to help cool cities is to, “See what you can do through urban form and design, for example, by using green and blue spaces in the city and optimising them, using reflective surfaces, removing industrial processing from centres so you reduce anthropogenic heat,” and take action to limit the impact of transport, which gives off waste heat as well as adding to greenhouse gas emissions. To effectively reduce “urban heat stress on large scales,” researchers involved with the Nature Climate Change study advise “green infrastructure intervention” is needed. Trees and vegetation lower temperatures through shading and evapotranspiration, which draws heat from the air to evaporate water. Bringing more trees and vegetation to cities has become a priority of more and more local governments. An Urban Nature Declaration signed by 31 cities that are part of the C40 Cities network in July 2021 commits them to secure 30-40% of the city’s surface areas for green or blue infrastructure, including 39

TECHNOLOGY Cities are increasingly buying electric buses to decarbonise public transport services, a key element in many decarbonisation plans that also reduces air and noise pollution. For an effective transition, municipalities must work with transport firms, bus and charging infrastructure providers, and energy suppliers to make sure the switch to a sustainable fleet is achieved without too many bumps in the road

All aboard

In September 2021, London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, announced that from now on the city would only order zero-emission buses while the entire fleet of over 9000 buses is to be zero-emission by 2034, three years earlier than initially planned. With funding from the national government, that date could be moved up to 2030, he added. Milan, Italy, already intends to clean up its public transport fleet by 2030, when it aims to have 100% of its 1200 strong bus fleet powered by electricity. Berlin, Germany, is among a growing list of other cities which is also aiming for 100% emission-free public transport that year.

DOUBLE WHAMMY Alongside active forms of transport like walking and cycling, electrification of public transport is important to help solve the “double whammy” of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, says Barbara Stoll of Clean Cities, a European campaign advocating for zero-emission urban transport. While public transport is the most efficient means for moving people around urban areas, most buses FORESIGHT

Route finder Shenzhen has led the way with an all electric public bus system since 2017

TEXT Heather O'Brian PHOTO DKart

hen the city of Copenhagen introduced electric buses in its public transport system, the response of bus drivers was overwhelmingly positive. Eighty-two per cent of bus drivers in the city supported electrification, given the sharp reduction in noise and vibration. Forty-two per cent also saw a decline in headaches associated with the job, city figures from 2018 show. From 2021, Copenhagen and other major Danish municipalities have been procuring only zero-emission buses, in line with an agreement signed in 2020 with Denmark’s ministry of transport. That represented an acceleration of the strategy of Denmark’s capital city, which had previously set a 2025 date for electric-only procurement. Meanwhile, the Netherlands and its cities have also been at the forefront of electrification efforts in Europe after adapting targets to fully decarbonise its public transport fleet by 2030, with 100% in new zero-emissions vehicles from 2025 onwards. In 2020, over 80% of newly registered buses in the country were zero-emission.

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continue to run on diesel. This represents a “huge problem” in terms of climate change and air pollution, she says. Public transport vehicles are on the road for up to about 16 hours a day compared to just the one hour on average for private cars, Stoll notes. One potential hurdle to the electrification of public transport is a false perception in some cities that buses powered on compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG), can be considered “clean,” says Stoll. “Some cities are turning to gas buses as if they are on par with real climate solutions, but they are as bad as diesel and in some cases worse.” A 2020 study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) examining gas engines used in trucks and buses found that gas, “Is not a suitable measure for climate protection.” It added: “Even in an optimistic scenario, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of less than 10% are achieved when using fossil gas instead of diesel.” In terms of air pollution, the ICCT found that, “The simplified conventional wisdom that natural gas engines are cleaner than diesel is no longer valid.”

SYSTEM CHANGE Despite positive prospects, switching to electric buses (e-buses) will be far from simple. “The difficulties lie in the fact that you are completely changing the way you operate,” explains Umberto Guido of the International Association of Public Transportation (UITP). “Now you have to deploy a system. You can buy a bus, but you also need to have chargers, adapt your depot for charging and train the workforce, which has always worked on internal combustion engines and now must work on electric vehicles.” “A transition to electric buses doesn’t imply just vehicle replacement, but rather setting up a sophisticated ecosystem that—if well designed—provides benefits for a wide range of stakeholders,” says Riccardo Amoroso of Enel X, the advanced energy solutions arm of the Italian utility Enel. “Running an electric bus fleet is different than running a fossil fuel fleet,” adds Stoll. “It requires much more communication with the different stakeholders and there needs to be a willingness to redesign the system.”

UPTAKE DRIVE In the European Union, the drive to sustainable public transport has been given a nudge by the revised Clean Vehicle Directive, approved by the European parliament and European Council in July 2019. The directive sets targets from August 2021 to 2025 and from 2026 to 2030 for low emission vehicles acquired by EU member states through public procurement processes. For about half of all EU member states—including countries like Denmark, Germany, Italy and Spain— the target for low-emission buses is set at 45% in the first period and 65% in 2026 to 2031. Less well off countries like Bulgaria and Romania have been assigned lower targets. At least 50% of the overall target must be met with zero-emission buses, although cities that have been vocal about their electrification plans have tended to set the bar higher. Copenhagen and London are among the cities that are also adding fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) powered by hydrogen to their bus line-up, although some 98% of the newly registered zero emission buses in Europe in the last two years were battery electric vehicle (BEVs) and they are expected to continue to play the predominant role going forward. FCEVs, “Are less energy-efficient and expected to play a moderate role,” states Rico Luman of the research arm of Dutch bank ING in an analysis published in September 2021. ING’s analysts anticipate zero-emissions buses will account for 67% of new bus sales in Europe by 2030, with electric buses increasing eight-fold to about 65,000 units. 44

“A transition to electric buses doesn’t imply just vehicle replacement, but rather setting up a sophisticated ecosystem that—if well designed—provides benefits for a wide range of stakeholders”

One issue is optimising bus charging processes, which Amoroso says may require substantial electrical works at bus depots. “Every bus requires significant power, typically 150 kilowatts per bus, and a lot of know-how is put into optimising the infrastructure and the time of charging, which typically takes place overnight.” There may also be potential for e-buses to participate in demand response markets—feeding stored electricity back to the grid on demand—providing a source of income. That grids will increasingly run on renewable energy underpins the entire e-bus strategy for emissions reduction. Cities that lead the way in electrification have a clear strategy for mobility and cleaning up their transport, often starting with the mayor’s office, says Guido. They can also, “ring to the FORESIGHT

TECHNOLOGY

Small affluent countries lead the way in Europe on e-bus adoption The percentage of e-bus registrations for public transport across select European countries in 2019

SOURCE: Chatrou CME Solutions

Zero emission %

Country

Total 98

78%

Denmark

67%

Luxembourg

102

66%

Netherlands

566

26%

Sweden

635

24%

Norway

654

23%

Finland

330 2044

9.2%

France

8.6%

Belgium

8.5%

Spain

1212

6.4%

1799

6.3%

Germany

2900

5.6%

Poland

990

5.4%

Italy

1219

3.7%

Greece

1.9%

Switzerland

319

Ireland

184

Austria

351

713

Electric

Hydrogen

table everyone who is involved,” including the energy provider. While bus operators are accustomed to altering operations based on the needs of the bus users, they may now need to consider both passenger demand and the supply of energy, he notes.

FOOT THE BILL As well as adjusting to a new way of operating, financing is also an issue for the electrification of buses. E-buses come with higher capital expenditures compared to a traditional bus, despite much lower operating and maintenance costs, says Amoroso. Footing the upfront costs could be more difficult for cities that saw public transport revenues decline as user numbers fell due to Covid-19 lockdowns and “could put some authorities off” from buying e-busFORESIGHT

Hybrid

100

Diesel

Gas

es, says Stoll, even though she points out that the total lifetime cost of ownership for an electric bus already reached parity with diesel in 2018. While campaigners are working to get the level of bus users back to pre-pandemic levels, public funding is often also available to support local transport. Some EU countries have set aside funds in their Recovery and Resilience plans for public transport. Spain has earmarked €1 billion in grants for urban transport, partially to support the purchase of electric or hydrogen-powered buses and the installation of recharging points. The European Investment Bank (EIB) has provided loans to several cities to support electric bus investments and other public funding sources are also available. Throughout Europe, countries and cities offer tax breaks and grants for e-buses. 45

BUSINESS Advocates of so-called digital twins—simulated computer modelling of technologies at work— see them as vital tools for managing the complexity of multi-level electricity systems and the digital control of energy efficient buildings

ities are home to more than 50% of the global population, account for two-thirds of global energy consumption and more than 70% of annual global carbon emissions, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The tendency for humans to cluster in huge metropolitan areas is projected to continue. On current trends, more than 70% of the world's population will live in cities by 2050, triggering massive growth in demand for urban energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, distributed energy generation is increasingly being integrated into electricity grids, just as electric technologies for transport, space and water heating are adding to demand. Without more effective management of building technologies, coupled with energy efficiency to cut demand, expensive network reinforcements and new electricity generation will be needed to cope with these changes. Digital technology holds many of the answers to an affordable energy transition, with plenty of unused potential. A digital twin is a virtual representation of an asset, such as a building, electrical grid or even an entire city, which allows a particular component, process or system to be studied. Progressive city authorities and 50

grid operators have begun utilising the option to bring together diverse data sets, such as from sensors, smart devices and mapping systems, combining them with historical data to make a complete virtual picture. Data pictures enable the streamlined modelling, monitoring, and management of real-world built environments. The simulations produced by digital twins allow the past, the present and possible futures to be studied, with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning models harnessed to make sense of the data. Such complex models are backed by faster computer processing and advancements in AI, allowing for complex analytical work to be performed at a highly granular level. Data from real-world events can be added to ensure the accuracy of forecasts. “We’re right at the tip of where we think this is going,” says Michael Jansen from digital twin software start-up CityZenith. “The key was rallying around data science, gaming technology and radical new forms of 3D visualisation. These are all different areas of technology, so merging those together has been a decades’ work. We’re at a place now where we’ve achieved the first ever true operating system for a city.” FORESIGHT

Twin Cities Using already available data with new machine learning technology can help maximise carbon reduction potential

TEXT Catherine Early ILLUSTRATION Masha Krasnova-Shabaeva

SOURCE NEW INFORMATION FROM OLD DATA

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TECHNOLOGY

TEXT Catherine Early PHOTO Mika Korhonen

DECARBONISING HEAT AT CITY SCALE

FORESIGHT

Cities are taking the lead on the decarbonisation of district heating and cooling networks, with the use of heat pumps on the rise

etworks for providing heat to homes across whole districts are far from a new idea—some systems were introduced as long ago as the late 19th century, such as in the German city of Hamburg. Though they only make up a small proportion of global heat consumption and remain mostly fuelled by coal or gas followed by bioenergy, many cities have begun to investigate ways to decarbonise them. “District heating shouldn’t be based on one source —it’s just water and pipes, you can heat the water in any number of ways,” says Paul V oss at Euroheat and Power, an industry association. Electricity, solar thermal, geothermal, waste heat and biomass are all low-carbon options and more than one heat source can be combined within the same network, he adds. Heat pumps have been growing in popularity in district heating networks and have a number of advantages, says Ken Brady, programme manager of district heating at the UK’s Energy Savings Trust (EST), which manages the Scottish Government’s District Heating Loan Fund. These include increased efficiency and no impact on air quality, which are particular advantages over biomass systems, he says. They also last longer if maintained correctly—25-40 years as opposed to 10-15 for domestic gas boilers, he adds, making them more attractive to developers considering a whole lifetime cost. Heat pumps can also be grouped in a modular system, which is more resilient than a single gas boiler, he adds.

HEAT PUMPS AS STORAGE

Crowdsourcing Helsinki cast its net further afield for ideas to decarbonise its heating network

Voss points to the ability of using large heat pumps as a form of storage by using renewables-generated electricity at times of surplus production to heat water in a DHC network to store it as thermal energy. It is around 100 times cheaper to store energy as hot water, he says. “In this way, thermal and electricity grids can be merged, that’s really positive. In general, I expect electricity to play a much bigger part in district heating networks than they do now—perhaps between one third and a half of district heating will come from electricity by 2050 in Europe,” he says. It may be more like 2030-2035 in the Nordic markets, he adds. FORESIGHT

BUILDING NEEDS Heat pumps are flexible and can adapt to different building types but are much more suited for use in new build areas because the buildings there typically require lower temperatures to heat. This means that the DHC network can be run at a lower temperature, which in turn lowers the fuel inputs and cost of equipment, Brady says. Heat pumps can also be used in DHC networks serving existing buildings. In these cases, the energy efficiency of the buildings should be upgraded, he stresses. “Building efficiency will affect the design of a system. Where there are very old buildings, there will need to be different types of solutions such as an individual heat pump in a particular building—it can be done, but there’s a cost,” Brady adds.

COSTLY RETROFITS Existing heat networks can also be retrofitted to run on heat pumps, according to Jan Rosenow, at advisory body the Regulatory Assistance Project. This could be key in countries in eastern Europe, which are typically run on coal, he says. “There’s a lot of potential but replacing the burning of coal with large-scale heat pumps would mean a very significant investment,” he says. But the costly upgrades should be thought of as a package, not simply the decarbonisation of the fuel supply, he notes. “If you don’t upgrade the efficiency of the buildings or the network and just deal with the fuel source, you’d have to build out a much bigger network which is a lot more costly,” Rosenow says. There might also be a need to upgrade grid infrastructure, says Julien Joubert of Energy Cities, a European advocacy organisation. Amsterdam’s city authority has calculated that its plan to electrify heat will require six hectares of land to install new transformers. “This is an issue for a city that’s already really packed,” Joubert says. Electric boilers can also be used in DHC networks and, though they are less efficient than heat pumps, there could be some cases where they make the most sense, adds Voss. “Electric boilers are cheap and cheerful, so if you only need them for certain situations such as peak times, that only happen a few times a year, it might make more sense to use one over a more expensive heat pump,” he says. 57

BUSINESS Once regarded as a high risk gamble, buying green electricity directly from generators under a mutually agreed power purchase agreement (PPA) has become big business in the commercial and industrial sector. City authorities eager to cut their electricity bills and buy renewable are looking to get into the market. The new demand is set to drive big growth in renewables

articularly in North America, the corporate world has been an enthusiastic signatory of commercial power purchase agreements (PPAs) as an alternative to buying electricity from the default utility provider at whatever price it demands. Large multi nationals and, increasingly, smaller companies have instead penned long-term deals under PPAs, particularly with renewable energy producers who are able to offer a fixed price for years ahead. Technology giants such as Google and Microsoft are responsible for bringing several gigawatts of clean energy capacity online worldwide as part of business strategies to guarantee zero-carbon power for massive data centres and central headquarters, burnishing their environmental credentials in the process. But city and other public sector authorities have been slower to see the merits of PPAs and for various reasons have either not been able or have been unwilling to broker agreements. Some cities are still to be convinced that PPAs are the way forward. A substantial chunk of their decarbonisation po60

tential is being left untapped. More than 14% of the European Union’s gross domestic product (GDP) is made up of public authority purchasing power while public buildings account for 10% of the EU’s building stock, which includes energy-hungry institutions such as hospitals and schools. Given that 40% of the bloc’s power demand comes from buildings, there is a lot that renewable generation can do to scrub emissions if they are given a guaranteed avenue into the public energy mix. PPAs are power offtake agreements between an energy producer and a consumer or trader, which typically either guarantee a direct supply of green electricity to a specific site or the exchange of electrons that have been tagged with a green label.

TRAILBLAZER In Europe, examples of a city or public authorities penning PPAs are thin on the ground but a notable exception is the City of London. In 2020, it brokered an agreement to buy all of the electricity produced by a 49 megawatt (MW) new-build solar power plant FORESIGHT

London and Rotterdam Public-owned bodies are looking at PPAs to secure a clean energy supply for their operations

TEXT Sam Morgan PHOTO Simone Hutsch & Valdemars Magone

Cities warmed by heated market for power contracts

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