F&C Regional Report North West Summer 2024

524, 000 £ 717, 687 - 0. 9% £ 372 £ 2. 57b n 387

RISING CONFIDENCE

The property market has remained resilient despite all that has happened in the wider economy, with market momentum growing. Buyer demand continues to edge higher and overall prices and transaction levels are rising. All eyes are on the Bank of England for an interest rate cut in June.

INTEREST RATE

The Bank of England has held the current interest rate at 5.25% for the sixth time in a row. However, Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, is “optimistic that things are moving in the right direction”, with inflation expected to drop further in the next few months. The Bank Rate is currently forecast to end the year at 4.41% (HM Treasury Average of Independent Forecasts). When it does, fixed-rate mortgages are likely to fall. This, alongside the resilience of the market during the higher interest rates of the past year, mean that property prices are expected to rise modestly over 2024 (Halifax).

While base rates have seemingly peaked and consumer confidence is on the rise, mortgage costs are on average significantly higher than three years ago, impacting affordability and meaning households have been feeling the pinch. However, while borrowing costs are more expensive than a few years ago, the current period of economic stability has led to homebuyers gaining confidence and going ahead with their moves. Activity levels are picking up and demand is growing, with mortgage approvals at their highest point in 18 months (Bank of England).

RENEWED CONFIDENCE

Consumer confidence increased by two points in April, with four measures up and one staying the same compared with last month (GfK Consumer Confidence Tracker). Renewed levels of momentum are developing as higher rates and bank lending rules mean that homeowners can be confident in their ability to afford their mortgage and may benefit when rates do fall. Sales agreed have significantly risen in all regions

of the UK in Q1 2024 compared to the same quarter in 2023. In the North West, sales agreed are up by 16% compared to Q1 2023 (TwentyCi).

The agreed sales metric in the latest RICS Residential Market Survey improved slightly to +5% in April compared to -5% last month and marks the most positive reading since early 2021. Alongside this, +33% of respondents still foresee a stronger trend in sales activity coming through at the twelve-month horizon.

POSITIVE GROWTH

Annually, property values are climbing and the market continues to stand firm. Nationwide and Halifax indices are still reporting positive annual price growth of 0.6% and 1.1% in April respectively. The market remains a challenge in terms of affordability and buyers are price sensitive and feel they remain in a good negotiating position. 61% of offers are currently being accepted at up to 5% below asking price, with a further 20% more than 5% below. However, back in February more properties were being accepted at larger discounts, with 35% of offers being accepted at over 5% below asking price (Dataloft by PriceHubble poll of subscribers).

PRIME

Elevated borrowing rates have placed cash buyers in a comparatively strong position and there is a high occurrence of these buyers in prime markets. The average cash purchase was £25,994 (9%) cheaper than the average mortgage price (UK HPI). In the North West, the prime markets of Warrington and Blackburn are currently the best performing.

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-2 .5 %

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-2 .7 %

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-2 .1 %

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£ 5 6 0 ,6 8 1 + 0 .1 %

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-0 .2 %

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+ 5 .3 %

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-7 .9 %

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-1 2 %

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£ 3 8 6 ,5 6 2 + 5 .9 %

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£ 5 8 7 ,1 4 7 -0 .8 %

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£ 5 3 3 ,9 1 5 + 5 .7 %

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N O R T H W E S T P R E M I U M M A R K E T

£188,306

£524,000

£717,687

£133,004

£326,000

£434,544

£138,333

£325,000

£421,328

£216,151

£450,000

£581,740

£372,424

£866,000

£1,168,263

£197,910

£543,000 £745,406