2.5
Indicators of risks therefore have to be considered among those that highlight the causes of food insecurity. Two groups of indicators are considered here: those from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), reflecting political and military conditions; and those from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), reporting on natural disasters such as droughts, floods and extreme temperatures. UNHCR computes the number of people exposed to risks arising from political and military events. In 2011, about 31 million people were classified as “population of concern” – refugees, people who have been internally displaced by conflict, and asylum seekers. Four-fifths of the world’s refugees are hosted in developing countries, including some of the world’s poorest countries, thus increasing the strain both in terms of refugee numbers and in relation to the size of their economies.
5.0
W or ld
Eu
Oc ea
ni a
LA C
ro p
a Af ric
Source: World Bank (WDI).
CHART 48: UNHCR total population of concern by type over time (2000-2011)
Total refugees
Others and stateless
Internally displaced
Prevalence of undernourishment ranging from about 30 to 65 percent is associated with large numbers of population at risk in countries such as Eritrea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Elsewhere, a high share of the population is at risk, but data on undernourishment are neither available nor easy to collect, such as in Afghanistan and Somalia. 20 million people
CRED recorded 332 natural disasters in 2011, with more than 30 000 deaths. The single largest event was the flood in China, which affected 67.9 million people in June 2011. In many countries, food insecurity seems to correlate to a high share of population exposed to natural disasters. Examples include Eritrea and Malawi, where undernourishment ranged from 23 to 65 percent; Swaziland and Zambia, with undernourishment rates of 27 to 47 percent; and Tajikistan, with 30 percent prevalence of undernourishment.
e
0.0 ia
Food insecurity is one of the most common outcomes for countries in protracted crises. Those identified by FAO contain approximately 160 million undernourished people, who account for nearly 40 percent of the countries’ combined population and 20 percent of all the undernourished people in the world.
7.5
As
Armed conflict and natural disasters threaten food security, especially in countries and areas where poverty is high, livelihoods are unsustainable and institutions are fragile. Risks tend to be higher for women and vulnerable population groups. FAO has identified 22 countries in a state of protracted crisis, defined as “those environments in which a significant proportion of the population is acutely vulnerable to death, disease and disruption of livelihoods over a prolonged period of time” (FAO, 2010b). Of these countries, 17 are in sub-Saharan Africa.
CHART 47: Droughts, floods, extreme temperatures share of population affected (average 1990-2009)
percent
Natural and human-made risks
10
Further reading • Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (www.cred.be/)
• United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (www. unhcr.org)
• Internal
Displacement Monitoring (www.internal-displacement.org/)
88
Centre
0 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: Statistical Online Population Database .
2010