The Role of the State in Large-Scale Hydropower Development
displace at least 15,000 people and increase social and environmental conflicts. This could lead to substantial cost overruns. This begs the question—who is the biggest beneficiary of large hydropower for export in Perú’s Amazon region? Some of the most important potential benefits for Brazil are presented and discussed in this chapter’s following section. In contrast, options could be weighed against the goal of security of supply for domestic use. Authorities need to frame the debate in terms of how Inambari and large hydropower projects in water-rich, Amazonian Perú can legitimately offset the unavoidable carbonization of the country’s generation portfolio due to the overwhelming use of natural gas for electricity generation. Even prominent Latin American environmental science experts such as Marc Dourojeanni recognize that the aggregate impact of numerous small hydropower projects may be exponentially worse than that of large dams—a comparison that merits further, quantitative research. Dourojeanni argued in a recent interview that, from a policy perspective and in the absence of detail studies on the benefits of large versus small hydropower, it is conceivable that building one hydropower megaproject like Inambari could ease the transition out natural gas and fossil-fired generation until non-traditional renewables become cost-competitive in Perú. This would be especially true if the government had to pick between Inambari and other dams in the Amazon region. The Pakitzapango dam, for example, could cause even more acute social and environmental conflicts. Unlike Inambari, the project is adjacent to special protected areas, such as the Otishi national park. 10,000 people could be displaced, the majority of which belong to the Ashaninka indigenous community currently living on protected reservations on the Ene river basin. It is worth noting that the Ashaninka communities have continuously suffered from conflict with and because of the state. Until the 1990s, they were caught in the middle of the violent struggle between the Peruvian government and the terrorist group Shining Path, leaving hundreds of casualties among the Ashaninkas. (Nelsen, 2012) The contribution of non-traditional renewable sources to overall supply is negligible: less than 1% of total electricity produced in 2010. Presently, according to the MINEM-IADB study, auction prices for wind generation are $80/MWh, biomass auction (ongoing) have a base cost !
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