EDELMAN’S EU REFERENDUM ANALYSIS
EU REFERENDUM t
23 JUNE 2016
MMO O N TNHTH S
DAYS DAYS
SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO? ONLINE ASSESSMENT BY CRIMSON HEXAGON With just two months to go, polls show the outcome of vote on a knife edge. The Financial Times’ aggregation of polling data indicates a 43:42 per cent split in slight favour of remaining in the EU and with this month’s appointment of Vote Leave and Britain Stronger in Europe as the official campaign groups, the fight around the EU referendum has intensified. The closeness of the race bears a striking resemblance to polls ahead of the Scottish independence referendum, and indicates that the UK’s position in Europe really does hang in the balance. But while the polls suggest an almost even divide, it is the “undecided” electorate that plays the most intriguing role. It’s currently estimated that 13 per cent of voters are yet to make up their mind, this represents almost 6 million people – more than the entire population of Scotland. It is here that the role of communications becomes so vitally important. Ultimately, it will be the narrative that best captures the hearts and minds of the electorate over the next two months that will prosper on June 23rd.
Analysis of 5,743,935 posts on social media platforms shows that the Stronger in Europe group is seeing success from messaging around the damaging economic impact Brexit would bring to the UK, with just 1 per cent of social media users claiming leaving the EU would have a positive effect on the economy. However, it is the Vote Leave campaign that is gaining overall traction. Opinion analysis shows that 47 per cent of social media users are in favour of leaving, citing greater immigration control, a higher standard of living and reduced payments to the EU as key reasons for opting out. Interestingly, since the referendum was announced in February 2016, only 25 per cent of social media users have leaned towards staying in the EU, with threats to employment (10 per cent) and freedom of movement (10 per cent) cited as the most important benefits, closely followed by trade (5 per cent). As we edge closer to the referendum and a vote that will impact the UK for generations to come, campaigners in the Stronger in Europe camp have a huge task ahead of them if they are to convince the UK electorate that we are indeed better off in Europe.
So how do the two campaigns stack up? While the polls give a good indication of voting preference, it’s equally important to understand the core issues that make up this debate.
Luke Moore VP EMEA and APAC, Crimson Hexagon Luke leads the Crimson Hexagon EMEA sales team based in London. He has built his career in the social analytics space and is a frequent speaker on where the industry is headed and how brands can tap into the largest focus group in the world. In his spare time, he enjoys spending time with his family, running and doing water sports in Poole, where he lives. Crimson Hexagon is a client in Edelman London’s office.
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HOW EDELMAN CAN HELP YOU If you are still considering your position on the EU referendum and would like some guidance with your messaging, Edelman’s Public Affairs team would be delighted to help you. Please contact Gurpreet Brar on gurpreet.brar@edelman.com and 020 3047 2466.
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