EU REFERENDUM
23 JUNE 2016
MONTHS
DAYS
Overview: The Battle Begins So after 30 hours of the long knives in Brussels and a 140 minute Cabinet meeting, we have a deal and a date. On Thursday 23 June, Britons will vote on whether we stay in or leave the European Union. David Cameron did a remarkable job persuading all EU Member States to agree to his demands. He is the first-ever PM to have successfully negotiated that Brussels will have less power over London, he has reduced the amount we will pay to the EU and he has stopped us from being part of greater European integration. Not even his heroine Margaret Thatcher managed that! It is 41 years since the last referendum on Britain’s EU membership. On 5 June 1975, two and a half years after we had joined the EEC, the UK voted overwhelmingly to stay in. Strangely enough, history is repeating itself. In 1975, Harold Wilson’s Labour Government was deeply split over EEC membership, while the Conservatives were broadly in favour. Wilson also promised a renegotiation of Britain’s membership terms, followed by an in-out referendum. Mr Cameron can take some comfort from this precedent, but he should not be complacent. Referendums are by their nature risky affairs. The Scottish independence vote was desperately close and there is no guarantee that this referendum will go the way Mr Cameron wants. His whole career depends on it and it has become a defining moment in history – not just for the PM, but for the country and for Europe. No EU country wants Brexit; it would be bad for Europe to lose one of the dominant powers in foreign policy and defence. However, we should not underestimate the consequences for Britain. The pound hit its lowest level against the dollar in almost seven years this week, and many believe that Brexit would weaken the pound due to loss of the EU market and the possibility of increased trade barriers being placed on the UK.
The Remain and Leave campaigns will make heated arguments, but they face similar challenges when it comes to getting their messages across coherently. The electorate faces information overload, with arguments delivered by those who are naturally political foes: David Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn for Remain; Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and George Galloway for Leave. Polling shows that migration is one of the biggest concerns; each side will want to claim that they have the solution. Although the PM got the ‘emergency brake’ he wanted on migrants claiming benefits, will it do anything to stem the flow of people wanting to come to Britain? Higher wages and the English language are greater attractions than our complicated benefits system. Also, as the brake will be applied next year, many think that there will be a surge in arrivals before then. Many in the business community feel that significant damage would be done by Brexit, and said that jobs and the economy would be threatened in a Times letter on 23 February. Many of the signatories have a long history of publicly supporting the EU, but both camps will be looking to sign up others to make their point. Businesses will need to make an early decision and stick to it. We usually expect our politicians to make decisions that affect our lives for five years – the life-expectancy of a Government. This decision will affect not only our lives, but also the lives of future generations. They will not thank us for making the wrong choice.
Naheed Mehta Senior Adviser, Edelman International Affairs Naheed has over 35 years’ experience in the public sector, including two stints at Downing Street. She worked with John Major during the Maastricht rebellion and as a Crisis Manager for Tony Blair. For the last decade she worked in the Foreign Office on a number of issues, including national security.
The Prime Minister’s Deal: What He Wanted, What He Got areas of negotiation
Conservative Manifesto 2015
PM’s Letter to Donald Tusk
The Tusk Revisions
The Final Deal
Economic Governance
• Protect the economy from Eurozone integration
• Protect the economy from Eurozone integration
• Countries must voluntarily agree to join the euro
• Stop the EU from restricting “legitimate financial services activities”
• Taxpayers from outside the Eurozone mustn’t be responsible for supporting it
• Non-eurozone countries no longer to participate in euro bailouts
• Non-eurozone countries don’t have to bail out euro, but can’t block integration • Formal recognition that the EU is a multicurrency bloc • Non-eurozone countries must have a say in decisions that would affect them
Competitiveness
• Look again at EU structural funds and reform the Common Agricultural Policy
• Set a target for the cutting of red tape and a commitment to boost competitiveness and productivity
• “Concrete steps towards better regulation” and all members under commitment to strengthen the Single Market
• Agreed the Tusk revisions
Sovereignty
• End the commitment to “ever closer union”
• The red card system
• A recognition that Britain is not committed to ever closer union
• UK is exempted from “ever closer union”
• Abolish the Human Rights Act
• An end to “ever closer union” recognised in the treaties
• National parliaments to be able to ‘red card’ EU proposals
Immigration
• No child benefit to be sent to children abroad • Jobseekers not allowed to claim welfare and must leave after 6 months if not working • Migrants must earn for 4 years before eligible for in-work benefits
• Migrants must earn for 4 years before eligible for in-work benefits and housing • No child benefit to be sent to children abroad
• Acknowledged the possibility of national parliaments blocking legislation • Countries could restrict benefit entitlements in exceptional circumstances • Emergency break could be applied for unspecified number of years and could be extended twice • Child benefit to be indexed to the standard of living in the country to which it’s being sent
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• ‘Red card’ system to be established
• Child benefit to be indexed to destination countries’ standard of living – for new migrants only • Benefits eligibility can be restricted for four years in emergency, but restrictions must be lifted within seven years without extension