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Global Megatrends
Population
most populations out of balance The world population continues to grow fast and will pass 7.5 billion people by 2020. Whilst populations in the West, China, and Japan are greying, the Middle East is becoming younger; in most developed countries a smaller declining working-age force will have to support more elderly, and a growing and younger population will aggregate in urban areas.
The pressures on natural resources, urbanization of exposed areas, natural disasters, and conflicts will be motivating factors for migrations – both domestic and international.
Fundamental changes
Migration to a better life - or not?
Four demographic changes will intensify and fundamentally alter the world’s population in the decades to come: • the demographic weight will shift from developed regions towards developing regions, • labour forces in developed countries will age and decline - potentially constraining economic growth, • the world’s population growth will be mainly concentrated in today’s poorest, youngest, and least developed countries, • the majority of the world’s population will live in cities.
The lure of prosperity, hopes for a better life, resource shortages, violence, and natural disasters are the main driving forces behind migration. In 2008, there were more than 200 million migrants, 2.5 times more than in 1965; by 2020, this number is likely to have increased to 260 million. In the long-term, climate change could add another 150-200 million refugees, as people try to escape from severe weather events, flooding, droughts, or agricultural disruptions.
More people – more elderly Every year over the next 10 years, about 57 million people (i.e. approximately equal to today’s population of Italy) will be added to the world population. The current global fertility rate of 3.11 children per woman will gradually fall to 2.5 by 2020, adding 500 million people to the world’s population, and resulting in 7.5 billion. This growth will mainly occur in today’s developing countries, and by 2020 approximately 19 % of the world’s population (or 1.4 billion people) will live in China. In contrast, the proportion of elderly people (older than 65 years) in most industrialized countries will rise, increasing in Europe, for example, from the current level of 14.7 % to about 22 % by 2020. The US, however, will be an exception, due to high net migration and higher fertility levels.
The generation divide
Population in millions. Source: US Census Bureau
The unfunded nationwide Chinese pension system combined with the one-child policy may result in a special situation, as nearly 400 million Chinese will be over 65 years by 2020. A greying population will put more strains on national economies through increased number of pensions, healthcare expenditure, social insurance, and labour shortages. By 2020, around 40 regions will experience a 10 % decline in the workforce, whereas countries such as Bulgaria and Poland may even have to cope with reductions exceeding 25 %. Not all effects of a greying population are negative. For example, the wealth accumulated by the elderly (goods, savings) may be gradually released into the national economy. Also, the currently high unemployment of 10-20 % in many developed countries may automatically drop.
A larger workforce in a developing country could provide new opportunities for economic growth, but if people remain unemployed and this may also lead to rising poverty levels, social unrest, or the rise of extremism. A lack of labour forces in Western Europe will act as a magnet, attracting several million workers over the next 10 years. Only if migration is maintained at its current level, will the working-age population in most OECD countries not have declined by 2020. This will challenge the immigration policies of many countries, e.g. EU. On the other hand, brain drain, which results from the migration of skilled workers from developing countries to developed ones, will assist in cementing the economic differences. Traditional migrant-sending countries are likely to become migrant-receiving countries, leading to a shift from a South-North to a South-South migration pattern.
Global migrants
There will be an estimated 260 million global migrants worldwide, or about 3.5% of the world’s population. Source: pstalker.com