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Global Megatrends
health and wellness
global health Containment of healthcare costs is viewed as a key national priority in many/most developed countries. The aging of the population and the pandemic of obesity among adults and children will become an additional burden while at the same time the expectations of healthcare �consumers� to receive high quality, safe and timely care will continue to increase.
Thus the need to limit healthcare costs while providing more care will drive change in the ways we manage healthcare.
Growing healthcare expenditure
Rise of Obesity and chronic diseases
In many developed countries, healthcare spending has risen more rapidly than GDP over the last decade, and the challenge of bringing soaring healthcare costs under control is expected to increase. Various trends, such as aging populations with chronic diseases, advances in diagnosing and testing diseases, lack of clean air and water, and the explosive growth of densely crowded cities, will add to the complexity. Improvements in infrastructure, access, affordability, equity, safety, quality, and efficiency of care will all play important roles in facing the challenges of higher costs in the future.
The pandemic of obesity among adults and children is a major public health concern. Obesity is a known risk factor for numerous chronic health problems, including diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory problems (asthma), musculoskeletal diseases (arthritis), and some types of cancers, resulting in premature death (8-10 years sooner) and increased healthcare expenditure.
Organizations that develop biomedical innovations often assert that their products reduce costs by detecting or treating diseases more effectively than previously existing interventions. However, many health economists believe that biomedical innovations typically increase healthcare expenditure. Depending on the technology, both perspectives can be correct, and this has led to a growing use of healthcare technology assessment methodology by payers and healthcare authorities.
Burden of disease – predictions towards 2020 Globally fewer children younger than 5 years of age will die, and the number of people dying from non-communicable diseases will increase, with a concomitant decrease in infectious diseases. In lowincome countries, infections of the lower respiratory tract, diarrhoeal diseases, HIV/ AIDS, and malaria are still the leading contributors to high DALY* values, while the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases is increasing. In high-income countries, the burden of disease is dominated by unipolar depression, adult onset hearing loss, and alcohol abuse disorders, for which direct mortality is low. Globally, the prevalence
of cardiovascular diseases (i.e. heart attack and stroke) will continue to grow, together with road traffic accidents. *DALY (disability-adjusted life year) represents years of life lost due both to premature death and to time lived in states of disability or less than full health. A high DALY indicates poor health status of the population. The global DALY is expected to decrease in the future, mainly due to prolonged life expectancy and fewer years of life lost.
Leading causes of burden of disease globally
The rate of obesity is increasing in many countries and in several OECD countries at least 50 % of the adult population is now defined as being either overweight (body mass index > 25 kg/m2) or obese. However, there is great variation in prevalence, with the problem increasingly common in low- and midincome countries. Obesity-related chronic illnesses will impose a burden of significant costs on healthcare systems in the future.
If nothing is done to reduce the risk of chronic diseases, heavy losses in terms of human life and economic production can be expected. WHO 2007 body mass index
100 % 80 % Injuries 60 % Noncommunicable conditions
40 %
Communicable diseases, maternal and perinatal conditions and nutritional deficiencies
20 %
2008
2015
Source: WHO Health Statistics and Informatics
2030
Body mass index is currently used to detect obesity. Source: wikipedia.org