Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Page 1 of 10
August 28,2015
Vol 5.Issue XIII
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Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Little Changed as Outside Markets Send Mixed Signals Aug 27, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Nov delivery are currently paused 2.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $11.575 per cwt (about $255 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mostly higher ahead of early morning action; soybeans are currently seen trading about 1.5% higher, wheat is listed about 0.2% lower and corn is currently noted about 0.4% higher. U.S. stock index futures pointed to a sharply higher open Thursday, with the Dow indicating gains of more than 200 points following a solid GDP report and after the stellar close seen on Wednesday. Dow futures dipped to trade about 120 to 150 points higher before the second estimate of second-quarter GDP came in at 3.7%, topping the first read of an annualized 2.3%.Weekly jobless claims came in slightly lower than expected at 271,000, marking the first decline in five weeks and indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Investors will also eye a key meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The annual Economic Policy Symposium starts on Thursday and brings together academics, financial market participants and many of the world's leading central bankers. After five days of gut-wrenching, triple-digit declines, the Dow surged 619 points into Wednesday's close, finishing the day at 16,285. The S&P 500 was up nearly 73 at 1,940.5. Gold is currently trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 3.7% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.7% higher at 8:15am Chicago time.
Indonesia Optimistic of Achieving Surplus Rice Production in 2015; Rules Out Imports Aug 27, 2015
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The government of Indonesia is optimistic of achieving surplus rice production in 2015 despite concerns regarding El Nino-induced prolonged drought affecting the rice output, Bloomberg quoted the Agriculture Minister as saying to local sources.The Minister told local sources that El Nino impact is expected to be very minimal and would affect rice output only in the months of September and October. He added that the government need not import rice to meet domestic demand. He stated that drought affected only 25,000-30,000 hectares of land and negated the claims of certain reports claiming that about 14 million hectares of rice fields have been damaged. He said the reports are exaggerated. The country's statistics agency is estimating 2015 paddy rice output to reach around 75.55 million tons (around 47.6 million tons, basis milled) in 2015. The government is keen on achieving self-sufficiency in rice production and stop imports over the next few years.USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.25 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (October September). Some analysts are forecasting imports to reach about 1.6 million tons.
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The government of Indonesia has so not imported any rice in this year. In 2014, it imported around 450,000 tons last year.
‘Gene-for-Gene’ Model Can Boost Rice Plant Resistance, Say Researchers Aug 27, 2015
Researchers at the UK's John Innes Centre have found means to increase rice plants' resistance to pathogens by understanding how rice plants detect pathogens, according to a study published in eLife. Their study is based on the mid-20th century model called the "gene-for-gene" hypothesis developed by Harold Henry Flor. Harold Flor predicted that plant sensors discriminate between different pathogen types, but he did not mention how they exactly worked. An extended research into this model has been carried out by Professor Banfield and his team. They investigated how a sensor protein in rice (called Pik) binds with a protein from the rice blast pathogen (called AV-Pik). Through a X-ray facility,
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they could identify the contact points between the proteins of rice plant and pathogens at molecular level. They also found that the strength at which the Pik sensor binds with the pathogen AVR-Pik correlates with the strength of the plant's response. Researchers say they can now devise strategies to boost the immunity of rice plants. "By building sensors with increased strength of binding to pathogen proteins so that plants would be able to enhance their resistance to diseases," said the lead researcher.
Oryza Global Weather Outlook Aug 27, 2015
In China, a few showers are expected from Hainan and Guangdong through Hebei on Thursday. Meanwhile, widespread showers are expected from Shaanxi to Guangxi on West. On Friday, rain showers are expected from Zhejiang through Hainan on West. In India, rain showers are expected from Maharashtra to Uttar Pradesh on South and East through Sunday. Weather is expected to remain dry elsewhere across India through Sunday. Widely separated showers are expected in Northern Pakistan through Sunday. Weather is expected to remain dry in Southern Pakistan through Sunday. In Indonesia, scattered showers are expected across Northern Sumatra and most of Borneo on Thursday and Friday. Weather is expected to remain dry in Southern Sumatra today and tomorrow. Rain showers are expected across Bangladesh through Sunday. Rain showers are expected across Vietnam on Thursday and Friday. Scattered showers are expected across Northern and Western Thailand on Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, spotty showers are expected across central Thailand on Thursday and Friday.
Philippines Will Import More Rice in 2015, Says Food Secretary Aug 27, 2015
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The Philippines Food Secretary has declared that there is a need to import more rice, above the already imported 750,000 tons from Vietnam and Thailand, in 2015 due to the impact of El Nino on rice crop, according to Bloomberg. He however noted that the quantum of imports is still not clear. He stated that the government is assessing the damage to rice crops due to drought and will decide on the volume of imports soon. The National Food Authority (NFA) has already imported 750,000 tons of rice (200,000 tons from Thailand and 550,000 tons from Vietnam) under government-to-government deals to ensure adequate stocks in the lean season (June – September). It has also allowed the private traders to import 805,200 tons of rice under the WTO minimum access volume (MAV) rule. The NFA is still authorized to import another 250,000 tons in case of adverse weather conditions.
USDA Post Forecasts Myanmar 2015-16 Rice Exports to Decline by 250,000 Tons Due to Floods Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com
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Aug 27, 2015
USDA Post forecasts Myanmar 2015-16 rice exports to decline by about 250,000 tons as the government would take measures to replenish stocks in the areas affected by recent floods. Heavy monsoon rains and floods in the northern and western parts of the country are feared to have damaged about 393,031 hectares of paddy fields in the two regions. The Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) and the government have jointly decided to ban rice exports till September 15, when th new monsoon rice crop is expected to reach the market. According to trade sources, Myanmar exported between 115,000-275,000 tons of rice in AugustSeptember of 2014 and 2015, says the Post. The government planned to grow paddy in about 7 million hectares in 2015-16, but only 5 million hectare were planted by the end of July. The Post says that the government may extend the export ban depending on the rehabilitation of the flood affected areas. The MRF and the government have also announced that rice would be imported if needed. Meanwhile, rice prices have increased by about 10-20% in the flood affected western states of Rakhine, Chin state and Pwintbyu Townships as well as in other parts like Yangon. According to the FAO, average wholesale prices of Emata rice have increased about 16% to around 487,110
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Kyat (around $390) per ton in August 2015 from around 418,850 Kyat (around $350) per ton in July 2015. The floods have caused farmers to lose rice stocks kept in their storage facilities and are feared to lead to rice shortages in the affected areas. The government has been taking measures to support rice farmers from the impact of floods. It reportedly distributed around 3,550 tons of rice seeds to farmers to help them replant their crop. Though it is difficult to immediately assess the impact of the floods on the rice crop, the government is expecting about 5-8% of the rice crop to be lost due to the floods. The Post expects additional farmland area to be lost due to floods in the coming weeks as heavy rains are expected to continue in the delta regions. Myanmar exported around 1.8 million tons of rice in 2014, according to the Ministry of Commerce data. The MRF expects a paddy output of around 14 million tons (around 8.96 million tons, basis milled) in 2015. The government has been targeting to export around 2 million tons of rice this year.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Go Nowhere despite Support from Huge Rally in Crude Aug 27, 2015
Chicago rough rice futures for Nov delivery settled 1 cent per cwt (about $0.22 per ton) lower at $11.590 per cwt (about $256 per ton). The other grains finished the day mostly higher, with only wheat finishing lower; Soybeans closed about 1.5% higher at $8.7900 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.9% lower at $4.8975 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.5% higher at $3.7500 per bushel. U.S. stocks attempted a bounce for a second consecutive day on Thursday, amid continued signs of strength in the U.S. economy, following the recent plunge in global markets that sent the major averages into correction territory. The major averages trimmed gains to trade just below 2% higher. The Nasdaq Composite swung out of correction and into positive territory for 2015. The Dow Jones industrial average traded about 240 points higher after earlier adding more than 375 points
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to rise out of correction mode. Crude oil is in focus after topping $42 a barrel, with most of the 10 percent gains attributed to short covering after lower-than-expected crude inventories. Brent also surged more than 8 percent to above $46 a barrel, on track for its best day since April 2009. The second estimate of second-quarter GDP came in at 3.7%, topping the first read of an annualized 2.3%.In a sign of continued improvement in the labor market, weekly jobless claims came in slightly lower than expected at 271,000, marking the first decline in five weeks. July pending home sales rose 0.5%, holding steady from an upwardly revised June reading of a 0.5% increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 346 points, or 2.12%, at 16,632. The S&P 500 added 45 points, or 2.33%, at 1,985, with energy surging 4% to lead all 10 sectors higher. The Nasdaq traded up 107 points, or 2.3%, at 4,805. Gold is trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 9.4% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.7% higher about 1:45pm Chicago time. Wednesday, there were 1,833 contracts traded, down from 3,287 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 607 contracts to 10,827.
Vietnam Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Aug 27, 2015
Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $310-$320 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today. 5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about $35 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $325 - $335 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $325 - $335 per ton. 25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $340 - $350 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $310- $320 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
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India 25% rice is indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $40 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $295 - $305 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $355- $365 per ton, about $60 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about $10 per ton from premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $295 - $305 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Cash Prices Hold Steady despite Large Increase in Rough Rice Stocks, Weak Exports Aug 27, 2015
The U.S. cash market was mostly unchanged today with buyers taking a breather as they come to terms with higher prices while most sellers took to the sidelines waiting until after the harvest to see what level they need to sell at to at least break even.The USDA’s August 1 stocks report had little effect on cash prices despite the report showing that rough rice stocks and milled rice stocks increased by 61% and 9%, respectively, from last year.Today the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week that ended on August 20th, totaled 33,500 tons. Increases were reported for the following destinations including: 29,500 tons to Venezuela including 30,000 tons switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 500 tons, 11,000 tons to Mexico, 5,400 tons to South Korea, and 4,100 tons to Haiti while decreases of 28,000 tons and 1,100 tons were reported for unknown destinations and Taiwan, respectively. U.S. rice exporters shipped 89,900 tons with the primary destinations including: 29,500 tons to Venezuela, 14,300 tons to Colombia, 11,300 tons to Honduras, 9,600 tons to Mexico, and 7,100 tons to Haiti.
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