25th September , 2013
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TOP Contents - Tailored for YOU Latest News Headlines… Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – U.S. Rice Crop 69% Harvested, 71% Rated Good-to-Excellent Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Pakistan Rupee Down 0.7% Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Dip Lower on Nonexistent Trade Interest; Corn Falls, Despite Supportive Wheat, Beans China Begins Purchase of Late Indica Paddy Rice at Higher Support Prices Iraq Re-issues Tender to Buy 30,000 Tons of Rice Brazil Paddy Rice Index Declines 1% in Last Week Thailand Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Bangladesh Rice Prices May Increase Due to Higher Packaging Costs Thailand Exports 3.6 Million Tons of Rice in January – July 2013 Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Come Under Pressure as Harvest Progresses Along the Mid-South Venezuela Paddy Rice Prices Unchanged in September 2013 India Government Projects 2013-14 Main Rice Crop Production at Over 92.3 Million Tons Oryza Quick Glance at World News Oryza Global Rice Quotes
NEWS DETAILS: Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – U.S. Rice Crop 69% Harvested, 71% Rated Goodto-Excellent Sep 24, 2013
The U.S. cash market remains quiet as most buyers and sellers continue to wait and see the size and quality of this year’s crop getting before committing to any larges purchases or sales. Yields are estimated at about 160190 bu/acre (3.6-4.27 tons/acre or about 9.7 tons per hectare), with impressive milling yields. However it’s still very early in the harvest.About 69% of the U.S. rice crop has been harvested as of September 22, 2013 including: 82% in Arkansas, 9% in California, 98% in Louisiana, 88% in Mississippi, 70% in Missouri, and 97% in Texas, according to the USDA Crop Progress Report. The report finds 71% of rice rated good-to-
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excellent. Offers continue to hold steady around $15.77-$16.66 per fob farm (about $348-$367 per ton), depending on where they are located in the U.S. mid-South, for October through December shipment while bids mills and exporters can still be seen around $15.56 per cwt (about $343 per ton), fob farm and delivered, respectively, for October through December delivery, although no trades were reported. Tags: U.S. rice prices
Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Pakistan Rupee Down 0.7% Sep 24, 2013
U.S. dollar index was up +0.14% from the open today, when it traded at 80.559 at the close. Euro was -0.14% lower today by the close, trading around 1.3475 by end of day, after trading between an intraday high of 1.3519 and low of 1.3465. The market seems to be pricing in a U.S. Federal Reserve taper of bond purchases next month. Thai baht was weaker -0.32%, trading at 31.290 at the close of business. Indian rupee was weaker -0.27%, finishing the day at 62.7700. Brazilian real was +0.02% stronger than the open at today’s close, when it ended at 2.1979 reais per dollar. Pakistan rupee was -0.46% weaker at the close, trading at 106.2600. Vietnamese dong was -0.05% weaker at 21120. Mexican peso was -0.74% weaker today, when it traded at 12.9045 pesos per dollar by the close of business today. Chinese yuan was +0.02% stronger at 6.1194. Argentine peso was -0.01% weaker at 5.7718 pesos per dollar. Tags: foreign exchange rates
Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Dip Lower on Nonexistent Trade Interest; Corn Falls, Despite Supportive Wheat, Beans Sep 24, 2013
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Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery settled 5 cent per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $15.485 per cwt (about $341 per ton). Rough rice futures continued to suffer through sessions of reduced trade activity and thus slipped under their own weight. There has been little in the way of fundamental headlines to spur buyer’s interest and with the harvest in full swing in the U.S. south there is a normal lull in the market. Trade participants do not expect trade activity to increase until after the harvest finishes which is still a few weeks out. The other grains closed mostly higher today; soybeans finished the day about 0.4% higher at $13.1250 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.7% higher at $6.5825 per bushel; and corn finished the day about 1% lower at $4.4975 per bushel. U.S. stocks recovered their earlier losses in volatile trading Tuesday, with major averages looking to halt a three-day decline, but gains were limited as investors remained cautious amid uncertainties surrounding central bank's stimulus program and budget discussions in Washington. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered from its lows to trade around the flatline. The S&P 500 traded around 1,700, while the Nasdaq toggled in and out of positive territory. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 index crept higher to hit an all-time high. Small-cap stocks have led for most of the year, surging nearly 27 percent. Among key S&P sectors, industrials led the gainers, while telecoms lagged. U.S. stock markets are currently trading up about 0.2%, gold is trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is seen about 0.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1% higher at about 2:00pm Chicago time.Looking to the daily continuation chart of Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery, the market saw light follow-through selling following the topping pattern put in place on Thursday of last week. The current action has confirmed $15.700 per cwt (about $346 per ton) as a near-term high. This level will likely come into play during any attempt by the bulls to push prices higher. Meanwhile, a continuation of the current move lower will likely see prices test nearby support around $15.400 per cwt (about $340 per ton) a level that has marked the bottom of the current sideways trading range which has maintained price action over the past few weeks. Today’s action provides a negative outlook for tomorrow’s trade direction, however as previously mentioned nearby support should come into play as prices near the bottom of this trading channel. Today’s trading range is noted as $15.435-$15.545 per cwt (about $340-$343 per ton).Monday, there were 171 contracts traded, down from 235 contracts traded on Friday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Monday increased by 42 contracts to 8,982. Tags: chicago rough rice futures
China Begins Purchase of Late Indica Paddy Rice at Higher Support Prices Sep 24, 2013
The Chinese government has begun procurement of late indica paddy rice (July – November) at a minimum price of 2,700 yuan (about $440 using current exchange rates) per ton, up about 8% from 2,500 yuan (about $392 using historical exchange rates) per ton in 2012-13.However, despite the increase in support prices, China’s dependence on rice imports are expected to reach around 3.4 million tons in 2013-14, making it the
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world’s largest rice importer. The USDA has lowered China’s rice production forecast in 2013-14 by one million tons to around 142 million tons due to drier-than-usual weather conditions in key rice growing areas this year. Tags: China rice production
Iraq Re-issues Tender to Buy 30,000 Tons of Rice Sep 24, 2013
Iraq has reissued a tender to purchase 30,000 tons of rice from the U.S., Uruguay, Argentina, Thailand, and Vietnam. The last date for submissions of applications is October 6, 2013 and offers must remain valid until October 10, 2013. This tender was issued by the Trade Ministry after it cancelled a similar tender to buy 30,000 tons of rice that closed on September 16, 2013. Tags: Iraq rice tender
Brazil Paddy Rice Index Declines 1% in Last Week Sep 24, 2013
The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by CEPEA declined last week, reaching around 33.9 real per 50 kilogram on September 23, 2013, down about 1% from around 34.26 real per 50 kilogram recorded on September 16, 2013.However, in terms of USD per ton, the index increased to around$309 per ton on September 23, 2013, up about 2% from around $302 per ton on September 16, 2013 due to the strengthening of the real against the USD in September 2013. Tags: Brazil
CEPEA rice price index
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Thailand Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Sep 24, 2013
Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for A1 super rice and parboiled rice by about $5 per ton and $10 per ton respectively to about $390 - $400 per ton and $450 - $460 per ton respectively. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged today. 5% Broken Rice Thai 5% rice is quoted around $420 - $430 per ton, about a $65 per ton premium over Viet 5% rice (of summerautumn crop 2013) shown around $355 - $365 per ton. Indian 5% rice is quoted around $415 - $425 per ton, about a $25 per ton premium over Pak 5% rice (of new crop) quoted around $390 - $400 per ton. 25% Broken Rice Thai 25% rice is quoted about $405 - $415 per ton, about a $75 per ton premium over Viet 25% rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $330 - $340 per ton. Indian 25% rice is quoted about $375 - $385 per ton, about a $35 per ton premium over Pak 25% rice (of new crop) quoted around $340 - $350 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thai parboiled rice is quoted around $450 - $460 per ton, down about $10 per ton from yesterday. Indian parboiled rice is quoted around $405 - $415 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pak parboiled rice (of new crop) quoted around $420 - $430 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thai broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted around $390 - $400 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday and about a $65 per ton premium over Viet broken rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $325 - $335 per ton. Indian broken sortexed rice is quoted about $315 - $325 per ton, about a $25 per ton discount to Pak broken sortexed rice (of new crop) last indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton. Tags: Asia rice quotes, India rice quotes, Thailand rice quotes, Vietnam rice quotes, Pakistan rice quotes
Bangladesh Rice Prices May Increase Due to Higher Packaging Costs Sep 24, 2013
Rice traders in Bangladesh say rice prices may increase by up to Tk 2 per kilogram (about $25 per ton) in the local market due to the government move to make jute sacks compulsory for packaging rice and paddy.Using jute sacks for packaging of food grains is already a law in Bangladesh under the ―Mandatory Jute Packaging
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Act-2010.‖ However, the jute industry has demanded its strict implementation in the wake of declining jute exports in recent months. They say that jute from Bangladesh is unable to compete against Indian jute due to the sharp devaluation of the Indian rupee against the USD in recent months.According to local sources, the government will soon pass an order to make it mandatory to pack paddy, rice, and other food grains in ecofriendly jute sacks to protect the jute industry from losses. Official sources, however, say that rice traders will be given time to complete use of their existing inventory of synthetic bags. Local rice traders say that packaging costs are expected to increase by up to Tk 2 per kilogram (about $25 per ton) following the mandatory use of jute sacks for packaging, and it will be passed on to the consumer. Bangladesh is mostly self-sufficient in rice, but rice prices often spike in the country due to lack of government storage space and hoarding by private rice traders. The government sells coarser varieties of rice in the market at around Tk 25 per kilogram (about $315 per ton) to keep prices under check, compared to finer varieties of rice being sold by private traders at around Tk 50 per kilogram (about $630 per ton). Tags: Bangladesh rice prices
Thailand Exports 3.6 Million Tons of Rice in January – July 2013
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Thailand has exported around 3.6 million tons of rice worth around 75.3 billion baht (about $2.5 billion) in January – July 2013, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA). In July 2013, Thailand exported around 675,064 tons of rice, the highest monthly rice exports in 2013 and up about 58% from around 427,058 tons exported in the previous month. White rice accounted for almost half of total rice exports in July 2013, according to the TREA.Local sources say that the pace of Thailand's rice exports is slower than expected in 2013, and the government may soon lower the total rice export target of around 8.5 million tons (worth around $5.7 billion) in 2013. According to the USDA, Thailand is expected to export around 7 million tons. Tags: Thailand rice exports 2013
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Come Under Pressure as Harvest Progresses Along the Mid-South Sep 24, 2013
Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery were paused 8.5 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $15.450 per cwt (about $341 per ton) as of 8:30am Chicago time. The other grains are seen mixed during this morning break ahead of floor trading in Chicago: soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.8% higher, wheat is seen trading about 0.3% lower, and corn is seen trading about 0.1% lower.U.S. stock index futures pointed to a flat open for Tuesday, as mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials on Monday added to the uncertainty over the tapering of the central bank's stimulus program. In a busy week for speeches by Fed officials, New York Fed President William Dudley and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart took a dovish tone at the start of the week. Dudley said he supported the Fed's surprise decision to delay scaling back its monthly $85 billion bond-buying program, given the lack of momentum in the U.S. economy. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, however, was more hawkish, indicating that he would have opposed the inaction if he had a vote. On Tuesday, investors will eye comments from Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who is due to speak at 12:30 p.m. ET. Last week, she said the Federal Reserve created confusion in the market with its lack of decision to taper. Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto is also scheduled to make a speech on Tuesday. Concerns over the debt ceiling also looked set to weigh on Tuesday, with trading expected to be choppy ahead of the October 1 deadline for Congress to pass a resolution to keep the government funded. If a deal is not struck, it could force a partial shutdown of the government. U.S. stock futures are currently trading marginally higher, gold is currently trading about 0.9% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.7% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.2% higher at 8:30am Chicago time. Tags: chicago rough rice futures
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Venezuela Paddy Rice Prices Unchanged in September 2013 Sep 24, 2013
Average paddy rice prices in Venezuela remained at around 2.5 bolivar per kilogram in September 2013, unchanged from both August 2013 and year-ago levels, according to data from the National Confederatio n of Associations of Agricultural Producers (FEDEAGRO). However, in terms of USD per ton, average paddy rice prices of around $398 per ton in September 2013 are down almost 32% from around $582 per ton seen in September 2012 due to the sharp devaluation of the Venezuelan bolivar against the USD earlier this year. According to the USDA, Venezuela’s rice production stands at around 385,000 tons in 2013-14, against a consumption of around 650,000 tons. The country is expected to import around 400,000 tons in 2013-14. Tags: Venezuela paddy rice prices
India Government Projects 2013-14 Main Rice Crop Production at Over 92.3 Million Tons Sep 24, 2013
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India’s rice production in the main (Kharif) crop in 2013-14 crop year (July - June) is expected to reach around 92.32 million tons, about 1.5% higher than the targeted 91 million tons, according to the government’s first advance estimate for kharif season of 2013-14. Overall food grain production in this year’s Kharif crop is expected to reach around 129.32 million tons.The first advance estimate by the Indian government is usually a conservative estimate. According to the first advance estimate last year, rice production from the 2012-13 Kharif crop was expected to reach around 85.59 million tons, and overall food grain production was estimated at around 117.18 million tons. However, the country actually produced about 92.76 million tons of rice from the Kharif crop 2012-13 (about 8% higher than the first estimate), and the total food grain production from the season stood at around 128.2 million tons (about 9% higher than the first estimate).The rice production estimate for this year’s kharif season is almost 8% higher than the first advance estimate for kharif rice production 2012-13 issued by the government in September 2012. The estimate for this year could have been higher but unfavorable weather conditions hurt rice production in some eastern states, official sources say.Most of India’s rice is produced in the Kharif season (July – November), but the winter (rabi) crop (November - April) also accounts for around 10% of annual rice production. Total rice production in India in 2012-13 (July – June) stood at around 104.4 million tons, while total food grains production stood at around 255.36 million tons. According to the USDA, India’s total rice production is expected to surge to a record 108 million tons in 2013-14.
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Oryza Quick Glance at World News Sep 24, 2013
Financial Times *Amina Mohamed, Kenya’s foreign minister, said the attack on the Nairobi shopping mall which left at least 62 people dead, was conducted by al-Qaeda and that the terrorists included at least two Americans and a British woman. However, this comments contradicted earlier government statements that the terrorists were all male. *A former FBI agent has agreed to plead guilty to leaking details of a foiled Yemen bomb plot to the Associated Press after an investigation in which the U.S. government secretly subpoenaed the phone records of 20 of the wire service’s reporters. *Citigroup said it would lay off around 1,000 people in its mortgage business, as refinancing volumes slump because of higher interest rates. *A triumphant Angela Merkel, celebrating her victory for a third term as German chancellor, dismissed suggestions on Monday that she would or should change her European policy in a new coalition government, now that the campaign was over. *Iran’s new foreign minister, Mohammad-Javad Zarif, will this week meet U.S. secretary of state John Kerry and ministers from the other major powers involved in talks over Iran’s nuclear program, Europe’s top foreign policy official said on Monday. *William Dudley, president of the New York Fed and vice-chair of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, talked down the health of the world’s largest economy on Monday, saying it does not have enough momentum to justify slowing down the central bank’s $85 billion monthly asset purchases. *Apple sold more than 9 million of its latest iPhones over the launch weekend, up from 5 million last year and much higher than analysts had expected, sending its shares 5% higher. *Sales of GlaxoSmithKline’s medicines in China are thought to have dropped 30% since officials accused the U.K. pharmaceutical group of corruption, according to provisional analysts’ estimates. The figures, produced by Citi, will add to pressure on GSK’s top executives as they face the threat of a substantial fine triggered by Chinese allegations of bribery totaling up to $500 million. Wall Street Journal *India’s policy on nuclear power suppliers is likely to be under scrutiny when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh travels to the U.S this week, with some reports suggesting a liability clause could be diluted to secure business. *North Korea appears able on its own to forge the machinery used to process uranium for nuclear bombs, research from two U.S. experts’ shows, enabling the country to skirt sanctions and heightening concerns about nuclear proliferation as it presses ahead with its atomic weapons program. *BlackBerry Ltd. said on Monday it reached a preliminary deal with one of its biggest shareholders to take the company private for about $4.7 billion, as it harbors hope that a better offer might emerge. *India plans to hold the next round of auctions for telecommunications bandwidth in January, which the government expects would help raise as much as 110 billion rupees ($1.75 billion).
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*Spain emerged from two years of recession late this summer, but faces a long period of more austerity and painful adjustments before it can regain its footing and put most of its 6m unemployed back to work, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said on Monday. *ECB President Mario Draghi opened the door to expanding the ECB's lending lifeline to banks, suggesting officials are willing to consider additional stimulus measures to keep short-term market interest rates in check and safeguard the bloc's fragile recovery. *U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague offered a cautious response to the promise of talks between leading powers and top Iranian officials in coming days, saying the new government in Tehran must match positive statements with actions. *New clashes and threats erupted in Hebron, a West Bank city that has been a tinderbox for Arab-Jewish tensions, days ahead of meetings in the U.S. to assess progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. New York Times *Talks between Russia and the U.S. on the conflict in Syria are not going very smoothly and Moscow is concerned a chemical weapons deal may have only delayed U.S. military action, a senior Russian diplomat said on Tuesday. *South Korea says it has rejected Boeing Co.'s bid to build and supply 60 new fighter jets — even though it was the sole contender in the bidding process. *In a sign of increasing concern about North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, China published a list on Tuesday that included military like hardware and chemical substances that would be banned from export to North Korea for fear they could be used in constructing nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. *Cofco, a sprawling, state-owned Chinese conglomerate kicked off on Tuesday a reverse takeover bid worth 14.2 billion Hong Kong dollars ($1.8 billion) that would result in a Hong Kong listing for its commercial property business in mainland China. *U.S.-based Chevron Corp will gather bids on September 30 from prospective buyers of three oil blocks in the Niger Delta with several local Nigerian firms in the running, industry sources told Reuters on Tuesday. *Ireland looks set to resist pressure from its international lenders and ease off on the pace of austerity after its finance minister said on Tuesday there was some flexibility on the severity of tax hikes and cuts due in next month's budget. Tags: World news
Oryza Global Rice Quotes: September 24th, 2013 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade
430-440
Vietnam 5% broken
355-365
↔
India 5% broken
415-425
↔
↔
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390-400
↔
Cambodia 5% broken 445-455
↔
U.S. 4% broken
595-605
↔
Uruguay 5% broken
615-625
↔
Argentina 5% broken 615-625
↔
Pakistan 5% broken
Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken 405-415
↔
Vietnam 25% broken 330-340
↔
Pakistan 25% broken 340-350
↔
India 25% broken
↔
375-385
U.S. Calrose 4% broken
570-580
↔
Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd
450-460
↓
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd
420-430
↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd
405-415
↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken
660-670
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken
545-555
↔
NQ
↔
1110-1120
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% Vietnam Jasmine
505-515
India basmati 2% broken
↔
1515 -1525
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
↔
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Brokens Thailand A1 Super
390-400
↓
Vietnam 100% broken
325-335
↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd
340-350
↔
India 100% Broken stxd
315-325
↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ U.S. pet food 365-375 Brazil half grain
↔
↔
325-335
↔
Medium grain milled U.S. Calrose 4% broken
645-655
Egypt medium grain 6%
NQ
↔
↔ All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
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