Oryza Quick Glance at World News Sep 13, 2013
Financial Times – *Britain has secured a third breakthrough in as many days in its campaign to check perceived over-reach from Brussels, as a senior adviser to Europe’s highest court recommended clipping the powers of an EU market watchdog on short selling. *Twitter fired the starting gun on the internet’s most anticipated initial public offering since Facebook by filing preparatory documents to the Securities and Exchange Commission. “We’ve confidentially submitted an S1 to the SEC for a planned IPO. This Tweet does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale,” the messaging site tweeted from its official account, sending the site’s users into an immediate frenzy of speculation. *Egypt’s military-installed interim government has extended a state of emergency for another two months, raising fears of a return to the heavyhanded security practices of the Mubarak era. *Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s centrist president, will meet his Russian counterpart at Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Friday in what he has described as a meeting of “utmost importance” for Tehran. *Militants staged a suicide car bomb attack then engaged in a gunfight with security forces near the U.S. consulate in the western Afghan city of Herat early on Friday, officials said. An Afghan translator was killed, while several other people, including police, were wounded. *France has unveiled a sweeping plan to revive its flagging industrial prowess that underscores efforts by the Socialist government to reconcile its interventionist instincts with a more pro-business approach. In a high profile announcement at the Elysée Palace, President François Hollande laid out a 10-year industrial policy based on supporting no fewer than 34 sectors, spanning new technologies in areas ranging from renewable energy to robotics and medical biotech. *Gold slid to a four-week low on Thursday as investors digested the latest US jobs data and reassessed the likelihood of a military strike on Syria. The precious metal fell to $1,329 a troy ounce in afternoon trading in London after a report showed jobless claims last week fell to the lowest level since April 2006, extending losses since the start of the week to 5%. Wall Street Journal*The Indian economy is expected to grow 5.3% in the current fiscal year through March 2014, C. Rangarajan, Chairman of India’s Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, said. The forecast is lower than the 6.4% estimate made late in April and would only be a marginal improvement from India's decade-low growth pace of 5.0% recorded in the last fiscal year.
*A secretive Syrian military unit at the center of the Assad regime's chemical weapons program has been moving stocks of poison gases and munitions to as many as 50 sites to make them harder for the U.S. to track, according to American and Middle Eastern officials. *Indonesia's central bank on Thursday announced a surprise increase of about quarter-percentage point to 7.25% in its policy interest rate, reflecting its commitment to protect the country's currency, as global sentiment remains fragile. *The Reserve Bank of India Thursday announced it would review how it conducts its monetary policy and suggest measures to make it more transparent and predictable. *Mongolia is moving to smooth over a dispute with mining giant Rio Tinto PLC that has threatened the operation of the world's third-largest coppergold mine, part of an array of measures the resource-rich country is deploying to try to restore the confidence of foreign investors. *India is in talks with potential partners, from both the public and private sectors, on supplying oil for its planned strategic petroleum reserve, the country's oil minister said Thursday. *The IEA said Thursday that the U.S. would bypass Russia in the production of all kinds of liquid fuels on average for the third quarter of this year. Russia would remain the world's second largest crude producer behind Saudi Arabia, with the U.S. a close No. 3. *Iceland has dissolved its EU negotiation committees, backing further away from its one-time ambition to join the bloc. New York Times*U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry set an early test for Syria’s top leader on Thursday by insisting on quick disclosure of data on that country’s arsenal of chemical weapons. Mr. Kerry’s demand came as he began talks with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, on a plan to secure and dispose of Syria’s poison gas. *A former U.S. nuclear regulator, Lake Barrett, who was appointed this month by plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. as an outside advisor to the decades-long decommissioning process, says cleaning up the wrecked Fukushima plant is a bigger challenge than the work he led at Three Mile Island and that ongoing radioactive water leaks are a minor part of that task. *Walls of water cascading down hillsides caused flash floods across Colorado on Thursday, killing at least three people. The flooding cut off major highways, isolated mountain towns and closed the main campus of the University of Colorado, the authorities said. *The secretary general of the .N. could receive a widely awaited report on Monday, or possibly earlier, on last month’s mass killing in Syria that is believed to have involved chemical weapons, diplomats said Thursday. Some
said they expected the findings would point unambiguously to Syrian government culpability. *The Chinese government announced an ambitious plan on Thursday to curb air pollution across the nation, including setting some limits on burning coal and taking high-polluting vehicles off the roads to ensure a drop in the concentration of particulate matter in cities. *Portugal should stick to the budget deficit reduction targets agreed with international lenders, the head of euro zone finance ministers Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Friday after Lisbon said a softer goal for next year would be better. *U.S. President Barack Obama will name former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Japan's Nikkei newspaper said on Friday. Tags: World news
Oryza White Rice Index Shows Signs of Stabilizing, But Harvest Is Pressure Just Around the Corner Sep 13, 2013
The Oryza White Rice Index, a weighted average of global white rice quotes, ended the week at $451 per ton, up a $1 per ton from a week ago, down $17 per ton from a month ago, and down $54 per ton from a year ago. After a steady decline over the last couple of months, the index has bounced back a bit. Whether this is a “dead cat� bounce or a bottom in preparation for a sustained recovery is hard to say, especially with main crop harvest just around the corner in Asia. In the Americas, quotes advanced slightly in the last week. U.S. 4% brokens advanced about $5 per ton to around $610 per ton. Uruguay and Paraguay 5% remained unchanged at around $620 per ton and Brazil 5% advanced about $10 per ton to $635 per ton. In Asia quotes were mixed this week. Thai 5% is shown around $420 per ton, about unchanged from a week ago. Below that, India 5% is offered at $415 per ton, up about $10 per ton from a week ago. Pakistan 5% is shown around $395 per ton, down about $10 per ton from the previous week. Vietnam 5% is indicated at around $365 per ton, down $5 per ton from last week. The descent in Thai rice quotes seems to have subsided for a bit with quotes stabilizing. Pakistan and Vietnam quotes remain on a downward trend while India quotes have bounced back a bit, helped by a firmer rupee. Tags: Oryza White Rice Index (WRI)
30 Day Outlook for Eastern China by Dakota Weather Consultants Sep 13, 2013
October, looks to be a very wet month, with possible tropical impacts around the Southern border region of our outlook to include Hong Kong, while Fuzhou will look at a tad bit less in the way of tropical moisture but more of frontal boundaries. Shanghai will be a tad bit drier for the month, with a few low pressure systems moving through the region. October 2013, looks like we will be in a Neutral ENSO phase, with that being said, expect this area to by close to normal for all three of the areas noted above. Here is a more detailed breakdown of each category. (Surface Air High Temperatures): Hong Kong Region will see daytime highs in the 25-30C range for the month, while the central region including Fuzhou will see temps in the 20-25C for the month. The northern boundary of Shanghai will see temps in the 15-20C range for the month. (Surface Air Low Temperatures): Low temps will be in the 20-25C range for the southern boundary to include Hong Kong, while 15-20C will be found
over the Central Region which includes Fuzhou, the northern boundary will see temps in the 10-15C range to include Shanghai. (Surface Precipitation): The southern boundary around Hong Kong will see around 6-9inches(150-225mm) of rainfall for the month, while the central region to include Fuzhou, will see rainfall for the month around 4-6inches (100-150mm), the northern boundary associated with Shanghai will see around 1-3inches (25-75mm) of rainfall. (Growing Degree Days): The southern boundary to include Hong Kong will see (600-1200 GDD’s), while the central region will be looking at (300900GDD’s) on the month this includes Fuzhou, the northern region to include Shanghai will see (0-600CDD’s) on the month. (Rice Moisture Content): The southern boundary region to include Hong Kong will have plenty of moisture for the month, while the central region will see moderate amounts of rainfall, some irrigation will be needed during the month, the northern boundary will need moderate irrigation time periods during the month due to the forecasted drier spell that is possible over the region. (Impact Analysis ): The Southern boundary region may deal with a couple of tropical systems during the month, while the Central boundary will see limited impacts outside of per-long dry periods of 3-5 day intervals. The Northern boundary will have longer periods of dry weather that could impact rice growth, requiring the region to use more irrigation during the month. (ENSO PHASE): The El-Nino Southern Oscillation phase will remain in the neutral for the month of September. *Please use this assessment with caution, when making decisions. “This product is created by the Climo-Dome Model that is unique to Dakota Weather Consultants and only available through Dakota Weather Consultants.” Dakota Weather Consultants Long Range Forecast www.dakotaweatherconsultants.com
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Cash Offers Hold Firm as BuyerS Cancel Warehouse Receipts
Sep 13, 2013
The U.S. cash market was very quiet today as seller price ideas continue to hold firm while most other bids dropped with the futures market. Market participants are hopeful that northern winds coupled with decreased humidity and plenty of sunshine will help fields dry out quicker and allow the harvest to pick up as it moves north. As of today, offers were unchanged near $15.77-$16.66 per fob farm (about $348-$367 per ton), depending on where they are located in the U.S. midSouth, for October through December shipment while bids mills and exporters held steady around $15.56 per cwt (about $343 per ton), fob farm and delivered, respectively, for October through December delivery, although there were no trades to report. Overnight, however there were 19 warehouse receipts canceled leaving only 51 left on the exchange (4,641 tons). Tags: U.S. rice prices -
Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Thailand Baht Down 0.5% •
Sep 13, 2013
U.S. dollar index was down -0.04% from the open today, when it traded at 81.452 at the close. Euro was +0.07% higher today by the close, trading around 1.3308 by end of day, after trading between an intraday high of 1.3321 and low of 1.3254. The dollar struggled to find a direction today after today’s economic data. Thai baht was weaker -0.53%, trading at 31.870 at the close of business. Indian rupee was stronger +0.06%, finishing the day at 63.4950. Brazilian real was -0.22% weaker than the open at today’s close, when it ended at 2.2797 reais per dollar. Pakistan rupee was -0.24% weaker at the close, trading at 105.0525. Vietnamese dong was -0.01% weaker at 21115. Mexican peso was +0.12% stronger today, when it traded at 13.0522 pesos
per dollar by the close of business today. Chinese yuan was -0.01% weaker, when it traded by close at 6.1187. Argentine peso was -0.13% weaker at 5.7195 pesos per dollar. Tags: foreign exchange rates
India Food Bill, Land Acquisition Bill Will Help Farmers, Says PM Sep 13, 2013
India’s Prime Minister says that the two Bills recently passed by the Parliament – the National Food Security Bill and the Land Acquisition Bill – will prove to be major steps forward for farmers in the country. In a meeting with a farmer delegation, the PM said that it is a challenge to grow agriculture production by 4% per year as targeted by the government, but given the right support, farmers can achieve the growth rate. He added that farmers will become more important following the enactment of the Food Security Bill and the recently passed Land Acquisition Bill will help protect farmers. The PM also said that agriculture production, including rice, has increased to record highs in the last few years due to government policies and improved loan assistance. Earlier this week, the Food Minister said that the Food Bill will help plug leakages under the existing Public Distribution System (PDS), currently estimated at around 35% nation-wide. Tags: India rice
Vietnam Likely to Miss 7.5 Million Tons Rice Export Target in 2013 •
Sep 13, 2013
Vietnam’s rice exports in 2013 are likely to decline to around 7.1 – 7.2 million tons, down about 500,000 tons from 2012, and about 300,000 tons
less than the targeted 7.5 million tons in 2013, according to an official of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). The VFA official told local sources that Vietnam is facing increasing competition in the international rice market this year due to huge supply in other rice exporting countries such as Thailand and India. Traders in Vietnam also say that rice exports will become challenging in the coming months when Thailand tries desperately to sell its huge rice stockpile of over 10 million tons. Vietnam is the world’s second largest rice exporter. The country has exported around 4.7 million tons in January – August 2013 worth around $2 billion, compared to around 5.1 million tons of rice exported for around $2.3 billion in the same period last year. Tags: Vietnam rice exports, Vietnam Food Association (VFA) -
India Main Rice Crop Planting Area Reaches 37.2 Million Hectares So Far; Up 3% from Last Year •
Sep 13, 2013
Planting area under India’s main (Kharif) season rice crop planting has increased to around 37.2 million last week, up about 3% from 36.1 million hectares seen during the same time last year, according to the Agriculture Ministry. India’s total Kharif crop (including rice and other crops) planting area has also increased to around 103.4 million hectares this week, which is up about 5% from around 97.9 million hectares recorded during the same time in last year, the Agriculture Ministry said. In 2012-13, India's Kharif rice production accounted for about 90.7 million tons from around 39.2 million hectares, slightly down from around 92.7 million tons of rice produced from around 40.1 million hectares in 2011-12. India’s total rice production (including Kharif and Rabi crops) in 2012-13 is estimated at around 104.2 million tons, slightly down from around 105.3 million tons produced in the previous year. Tags: India rice planting area
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Silent Overnight as Grains Quiet Following USDA S&D Update •
Sep 13, 2013
Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery were paused 1 cents per cwt (about $0.22 per ton) lower at $15.535 per cwt (about $342 per ton) as of 8:30am Chicago time. The other grains are seen mostly lower during this morning break ahead of floor trading in Chicago: soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.1% higher, wheat is seen trading unchanged, and corn is seen trading about 0.4% lower. U.S. stock index futures held their slight gains across the board Friday, as investors digested the latest round of economic reports and ahead of next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. On the economic front, retail sales rose a meager 0.2% in August, according to the Commerce Department, suggesting that economic growth slowed in the third quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a gain of 0.4% following an increase of 0.4% in July. And producer prices rose 0.3% in August as energy costs rebounded, according to the Labor Department. Economist surveyed by Reuters expected a gain of 0.2%.U.S. stock futures are currently trading about 0.1% higher, gold is currently trading about 1.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.7% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading slightly lower at 8:30am Chicago time. Tags: chicago rough rice futures - See more at: http://oryza.com/content/oryza-overnight-recap-%E2%80%93-chicago-roughrice-futures-silent-overnight-grains-quiet-following#sthash.zZijIeWl.dpuf
Thailand Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes; Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today •
Sep 13, 2013
Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to about $415 - $425 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton to about $330 - $340 per ton. Other Asian rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged. 5% Broken Rice Thai 5% rice is quoted around $415 - $425 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday and about a $55 per ton premium over Viet 5% rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $360 - $370 per ton. Indian 5% rice is quoted around $410 - $420 per ton, about $20 per ton premium over Pak 5% rice (of new crop) quoted around $390-$400per ton. 25% Broken Rice Thai 25% rice is quoted about $405 - $415 per ton, about a $75 per ton premium over Viet 25% rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $330 - $340 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. Indian 25% rice is quoted about $370 - $380 per ton, about a $30 per ton premium over Pak 25% rice (of new crop) quoted around $340-$350 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thai parboiled rice is quoted around $455 - $465 per ton. Indian parboiled rice is quoted around $405 - $415 per ton, about a $10 per ton discount to Pak parboiled rice (of new crop) quoted around $415 - $425 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thai broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted around $395 - $405 per ton, about a $75 per ton premium over Viet broken rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $320 - $330 per ton. Indian broken sortexed rice is quoted about $305 - $315 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to Pak broken sortexed rice (of new crop) indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton. Tags: Asia rice quotes, Thailand rice quotes, Vietnam rice quotes, India rice quotes, Pakistan rice quotes