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Daily December 11, 2014
Exclusive ORYZA E-Newsletter
DAILYCompiled EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER & Edited by Riceplus Magazine
December 11, 2014 Vol 4 Issue XII
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
News Headlines… Vietnam rice Quotes Mixed Today; Pakistan Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Ghana Needs New Strategies to Boost Rice Production Iran Will Resume Rice Imports in February 2015, Global Business Consultant Mustapha Pakzad Tells Oryza in Exclusive Interview Myanmar Plans to Release National Rice Export Strategy in January 2015 Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Retrace Slightly as USDA S&D Fails to Excite Market and as Crude Prices Continue to Tumble Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Lower Overnight as Market Cools After Yesterday’s Rally Typhoon Hagupit Not to Impact Philippines National Paddy Rice Output Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Silent Market despite USDA WASDE Increasing Exports Quick, Macro Solutions to Micro Nutrient Deficiency in Paddy Global Rice Quotes
News Detail … Vietnam rice Quotes Mixed Today; Pakistan Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Dec 10, 2014
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $350 - $360 per ton and increased their quotes for 100% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $330 - $340 per ton today. Pakistan rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice and 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton to each to around $370 - $380 per ton and $330 - $340 per ton respectively today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged. 5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $400 - $410 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $385 - $395 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around $395 $405 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $370 - $380 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday. 25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice was last quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton, on par with Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday. India 25% rice is quoted at around $360 - $370, about $30 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday. Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $400 - $410 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at around $380 - $390 per ton, about $30 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $410 - $420 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $300 - $310 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $290 - $300 per ton. Tags: Vietnam rice prices, India rice prices, pakistan rice prices, Thailand rice prices
Ghana Needs New Strategies to Boost Rice Production Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Dec 10, 2014
The Ghana Rice Inter-Professional Body (GRIB) has urged the government to adopt new strategies to boost rice production in the country, according to local sources.Speaking at the inaugural function of a Public Private Dialogue Council on Rice, the President of the GRIB noted that the government should focus on providing access to quality seeds, fertilizers, irrigation facilities, modern rice farming technologies, milling units as well as drying and storage units rather than providing just subsidies on rice production. He noted that farmers should be encouraged to invest more in production inputs in order to achieve higher and quality output. Farmers should be taught to view rice production as a business, he added.Other speakers in the dialogue urged the government to ensure necessary support to all the stakeholders in the rice value chain to help them produce more rice. They expressed confidence that Ghanaian rice farmers are capable of producing 40% more rice with adequate support from the government. Ghana produces only 30% of its annual consumption needs of around one million tons and imports the rest. Ghana's annual rice import bill stood at $306 million in 2013 and it is planning to increase rice production by about 20% per annum over the next four years to make the country self-sufficient in rice and subsequently ban rice imports.According to the USDA, Ghana’s rice production is estimated at about 330,000 tons (milled basis) in MY 2014-15 (October September). The U.S. agency expects Ghana to import 620,000 tons of rice during the year to meet consumption needs of around one million tons of rice. Tags: , Ghana rice imports
Iran Will Resume Rice Imports in February 2015, Global Business Consultant Mustapha Pakzad Tells Oryza in Exclusive Interview Dec 10, 2014
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER In an exclusive interview with Oryza, Mustapha Pakzad, global business consultant and Chairman of U.K.-based Pakzad Consulting Group, has shared his views regarding the rice import ban by Iran. Excerpts from the interview‌ Oryza: Iran's ban of rice imports, though understood to be temporary, is unprecedented according to many traders. What is your comment?
M.Pakzad: We have had a high volume of imports this year already. The low exchange rates made available at the end of the previous presidency encouraged an overpurchase of rice. This means we have imported about 50% more than needed. The ban is due to the fact that the new government wants to clear the over-stock. As you know rice cannot be stored for much longer than one year. Any further import at this stage is likely to cause unhealthy competition. The ban will, however, be lifted in February 2015. Oryza: Iran, which normally increases duties on rice imports during September-November every year, has this time opted to ban rice imports citing adequacy of stocks. However, traders say the move is unprecedented. What is your comment? M.Pakzad: The high tariffs are imposed during harvest periods. We do have adequate stocks, in fact an over-stock. The ban is meant to reduce the over-stock. In fact rice importers are already negotiating with exporters, including the Iranian Government Trading Company. This is because the former believe and the latter actually know that early in 2015 the ban will be lifted and rice imports resumed. Oryza: There are concerns that Iran may not revert the decision soon given the government's commitment to use the existing rice stocks. Do you see any such possibility? M.Pakzad: No. The ban will be lifted in February 2015. Iran has around 2.2 million tons of rice consumption per year. 750,000 to 1 million tons are covered by internal production. This means Iran will always need 1 to 1.2 million tons of rice to be imported. Oryza: Also, the Iranian government is understood to be advocating self-sufficiency in rice production. Currently, Iran produces less than half of around 3.45 million tons of rice Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
consumption needs. In this backdrop, achieving rice self-sufficiency is not an easy task. How do you think the Middle East nation can achieve this herculean task? M.Pakzad: Self-sufficiency is unlikely to ever happen simply because Iran does not have the water resources necessary for this. Some attempts have been made to produce rice near Urumieh lake, but the government is trying to stop this because it is draining the lake. So the geographical conditions in Iran will never permit 100% self-sufficiency in rice. Oryza: Do you think changes in rice consumption patterns have been influencing the rice import decision? M.Pakzad: No. We have an average 3 to 5% increase in national demand per year. Oryza: Iran's basmati rice imports from India have been increasing significantly over the last few years. In 2013-14 (April - March), they constituted nearly 85% of Iran's total rice imports of about 1.7 million tons. Despite such a background, Iran seemed to reduce rice imports from India in a phased manner since February this year. Do you see any politically motivated reason behind this decision? M.Pakzad: Not at all. There are two reasons for this. First is over-purchase which has caused over-stock of rice. Iran normally imports 1.2 million tons per year, last year it imported around 1.8 tons. The over-purchase was encouraged by the particularly low currency rates last year. Second reason is that the government is now asking for GMP health certificate since it is concerned about the standards in which rice is warehoused in India. We have had recent visits to Iran by delegations from Indian Ministry of Commerce and other organizations asking the Iranian authorities for less strict regulations regarding rice imports. Of course these strict measures have actually benefited reputable Indian exporters since it is well known that they uphold high health standards. So they have been the winners in all this. Naturally import volumes have been affected by these tightened regulatory oversights too. Oryza: Do you see any possibility of Iran shifting buying interest slowly to any other country from India? M.Pakzad: No, not with rice. The reason is that Iranians like long grain (Basmati) rice. Only India has long grain rice. Of the 1.2 million tons of rice imported into Iran per year, only around 200 thousand tons are second rate quality rice from for example Thailand. This type of rice is used in places like the army. The vast majority of consumption is high grade long grain rice, and it is only India that can provide this. Oryza: Do you think price differential between the imported rice and locally produced rice Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
could have prompted this decision? That means, is this a move to protect local rice farming community? M.Pakzad: No. The price of good quality Iranian rice is almost twice that of Indian rice imported and there is therefore no real competition. Oryza: India exports nearly 30% of its basmati rice exports to Iran and her over-dependence on the Middle East nation is likely to cost her hugely this year. Do you see the need for India to further diversify her overseas basmati rice sales? M.Pakzad: The Indian rice production volume is 4.5 million tons per year. About 2 million tons goes to Saudi Arabia due to Hajj causing higher consumption, 1.2 million tons comes to Iran and about 300 thousand tons goes to UAE and other places. It is therefore not easy for India to shift exports to countries other than Iran. It would be better to aim at satisfying government regulations and preserving the market. Oryza: How do you think Iran's decision would impact global rice prices and stocks especially when Thailand and Pakistan are speeding up their trials to reinstate exports to Iran? M.Pakzad: Thailand has no long grain rice and it therefore poses no threat to Indian rice exports to Iran. Pakistan rice is almost same grade as Indian. However, the health concerns are even greater for Pakistan rice as far as the Iranian authorities are concerned and there is therefore no real threat posed by Pakistan to Indian rice exporters to Iran either. Pakistan tend to only serve the rice import needs of counties in Iran which are along its borders. We must also note that if the ban does continue, Basmati 1121 rice price in India will be affected, but it is unlikely that matters will ever get to this. Oryza: Finally, when do you think Iran would lift the ban? M.Pakzad: The ban should be lifted around February 2015. Tags: Iran rice imports, Iran rice production, basmati rice imports from India
Myanmar Plans to Release National Rice Export Strategy in January 2015 Dec 10, 2014
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
The Myanmar government is planning to release its National Export Strategy, which aims to promote the main export commodities, including rice, hotels and tourism sector and supporting services, in January 2015, according to local sources. The National Export Strategy, which is prepared by the officials from the Ministry of Commerce, Customs Department, Myanmar Port Authority and exporters, will be submitted for government approval in the last week of December 2014, according to the Advisor to the Commerce Minister. Once approved, the government is planning to release it to the public. The government is keen on boosting foreign exchange income to the country and accordingly plans to enhance marketing for top export items like rice as well as provide financial support for production and improvement of product quality. It is keen on developing the export sector extensively within the next five years. The General Secretary of the Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) expressed concern that rice farmers often encounter extreme weather conditions, which lead to lower production. He noted that farmers should be given enough support to withstand such odds and still increase production.In September this year, the government noted that it will put rice on the top of its new five-year export promotion strategy and will explore newer markets for its rice exports under the new strategy.Myanmar exported record 1.33 million tons of rice in 2012-13, but exports dropped to 1 million tons in MY 2013-14. The government targets to export over 1 million tons this year. The government is planning to increase its rice exports to about 3 million tons over the next five years. USDA estimates Myanmar to produce 18.63 million tons of paddy rice (around 12 million tons, milled basis) and export around 1.3 million tons of rice in MY 2013-14 (January - December 2014). Tags: myanmar rice exports, Myanmar National Rice Export Strategy, Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF)
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Retrace Slightly as USDA S&D Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Fails to Excite Market and as Crude Prices Continue to Tumble Dec 10, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 3 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $12.260 per cwt (about $270 per ton). Rough rice futures slipped slightly today as softer grain prices and steeply lower crude prices weighed on the market. Today’s USDA S&D provided little in the way of surprises and is seen as already having been priced into the market. Traders had hoped for some follow-through buying interest today, following yesterday’s nearly 25 cent per cwt (about $6 per ton) rally, however they were disappointed as trade activity was muted throughout the day. The other grains closed lower as well today; Soybeans closed about 1.6% lower at $10.3225 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.7% lower at $5.8275 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.4% lower at $3.9475 per bushel.U.S. stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, furthering the week's losses, as the price of crude fell to a five-year low and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its demand outlook for next year. OPEC reduced its estimate for 2015 by roughly 300,000 barrels a day, with the cartel saying the effect of the 40 percent drop in prices on supply and demand is uncertain. After a 228-point drop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently off 206.92 points, or 1.2%, at 17,594.28. The S&P 500 dropped 24.68 points, or 1.2%, to 2,035.14, with the energy sector hardest hit of all 10 of its major industry groups in decline. The Nasdaq fell 59.33 points, or 1.3%, to 4,707.14. Gold is trading about 0.2% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 4.9% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time. Tuesday, there were 1,085 contracts traded, up from 370 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 172 contracts to 10,166. Tags: chicago rough rice futures, U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Lower Overnight as Market Cools After Yesterday’s Rally Dec 10, 2014
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery were trading 4.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower overnight at $12.245 per cwt (about $270 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen mostly lower: soybeans are currently seen 0.1% lower, wheat is listed about 1.1% lower and corn is noted about 0.7% lower.U.S. stock index futures signaled a lower open on Wednesday ahead of the monthly Federal budget and after recovering much of the losses from Tuesday’s session. Data in focus on Wednesday includes the publication of the Federal budget statement for November, expected at 2pm ET, and a 10-year U.S. Treasury Auction. European shares were higher on Wednesday, staging a small rebound after heavy selling in the previous session. However, worries about Greece persisted due to uncertainty surrounding a parliamentary vote to elect a new president later this month. The country’s main stock index fell 3%, extending Monday’s losses. Greek bond yields also spiked to around 8.2%. OPEC’s monthly oil market report for December will also be published on Wednesday. This will be of key interest to investors, as oil prices remain under pressure, with Brent crude trading at around $65 per barrel. Gold is currently trading about 0.2% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2.4% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.1% lower at 8:10am Chicago time. Tags: U.S., U.S. rice prices, U.S. paddy prices, chicago rough rice futures
Typhoon Hagupit Not to Impact Philippines National Paddy Rice Output Dec 10, 2014
Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) which reportedly damaged about 52,034 tons of paddy rice worth P890.92 million (around $20 million), may not impact the overall paddy rice output in the first quarter of 2015, local sources quoted the Agriculture Undersecretary as saying.He noted that the losses from 'Ruby' are about 1.21% of the 2015 first quarter target of around 4.28 million tons. He added that these minimal losses will not significantly impact the national paddy production target.The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) estimates the country's paddy rice output in the first quarter of 2015 to decline about 0.6% to around 4.28 million tons from around 4.31 million tons last year. It estimates paddy rice acreage to decline about 2.5% to around 1.13 million hectares from around 1.16 million hectares last year.The PSA estimates the Philippines 2014 paddy rice production at around 18.88 million tons, up about 2.4% from around 18.44 million tons produced Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
in 2013 as yields are estimated to increase to around 3.98 tons per hectare from last year's 3.89 tons per hectare. However, paddy rice planting area is estimated to decline about 0.05% to around 4.75 million hectares from around 4.74 hectares.USDA estimates Philippines MY 201415 (July - June) paddy rice production at around 19.365 million tons (around 12.2 million tons, basis milled), up about 3% from around 18.822 million tons (around 11.8 million tons, basis milled) produced in the previous year. It estimates Philippines 2014-15 milled rice exports at around 1.6 million tons, up about 10% from last year. Tags: Philippines Rice Production, Philippines rice imports, Ruby Typhoon
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Silent Market despite USDA WASDE Increasing Exports Dec 10, 2014
The U.S. cash market was dead silent today as holiday doldrums set in. Farmers are still hoping to net close to $13.33 per cwt fob farm (about $294 per ton) however bids are seen over $1.00 per cwt lower and which is receiving little to no selling interest.Meanwhile, cash prices were little changed despite the fact that the USDA WASDE report showed a 1.0 million cwt (45,359 tons) increase in US long grain exports which was a result of increasing exports to South America and the Middle East which in turn decreased U.S. long grain ending stocks by the same amount putting their 2014/2015 carry over projection at 27.0 million cwts (1,224,701 tons). Tags: U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market
Quick, Macro Solutions to Micro Nutrient Deficiency in Paddy Dec 10, 2014
They are called micro nutrients, but their deficiencies can cause mega and macro problems in paddy farms. Zinc and Iron deficiencies can throw paddy out of gear, indirectly, if not tackled on time. Dr Sandhya Rani, Program Co-ordinator, and her team at Krishi Vignan Kendra at Darshi in south India share information on why micro nutrients deficiency can affect the farmers’ yield in a big way. Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Oryza: How ‘mega’ is the micronutrient deficiency problem in paddy plants? KVK team: Nearly 40 percent of the farms in rice-producing states in south India suffer from Zinc deficiency. Zinc is important for paddy as it aids in making of enzymes, secretion of growth hormones, amino acids, fatty acids, absorption of Nitrogen and Phosphorous. Zinc also plays a crucial role in the first one month of its planting and for photosynthesis. Oryza: What are the first indications of Zinc deficiency in a paddy plant? KVK team: Deficiency symptoms start showing from the second week to up to sixth of transplanting. The other symptoms include: - Yellowing of leaves between the veins - Leaves turn yellow in black soil - Leaves display bronze colour in red soils - Mature leaves display lesions in rust/red colors - Leaves turn dry, brittle Oryza: What should paddy farmers watch out for when treating Zinc deficiencies? KVK team: Zinc deficiency is most prominent in saline and stagnant soils. They should also remember to never use Zinc Sulphate with Phosphorous. In case both have to be administered, they should give a gap of at least three days in between. Oryza: What are the latest solutions to address the deficiency? KVK team: Use 20 kg Zinc Sulphate for one acre in the last phase of puddling in farms where paddy is grown once a year. It must be administered once every three years in the Rabi season in farms where rice is grown twice a year.
Oryza: How grave is Iron deficiency in paddy plants. What should be done to tackle this? KVK team: Iron helps in production of chlorophyll, photosynthesis, Nitrogen absorption and stablization and in making of enzymes. The first signs show up in tender leaves and in the stunted growth of the plant. One can notice yellowing of leaves between the veins due to loss of chlorophyll. The symptoms are prominent in farms with high content of calcium, salinity when iron content is less than PPM. Farmers should use organic fertilizers of chemical fertilizers with Iron in it. Oryza: What is the solution? KVK team: Farmers need to administer 20 gm Green Vitriol (Iron Sulphate) in one litre of water or 3 gm Citric Acid crystals in 200 litres water solution and administer it thrice in a span of six days. Spraying 0.5 percent chelate solution thrice is also effective.
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Tags: Rice, rice news, micro nutrient deficiency, zinc, Iron
Global Rice Quotes December 10th, 2014 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 415-425
↔
Vietnam 5% broken
385-395
↔
India 5% broken
395-405
↔
Pakistan 5% broken
370-380
↓
Cambodia 5% broken
460-470
↔
U.S. 4% broken
540-550
↔
Uruguay 5% broken
595-605
↔
Argentina 5% broken
595-605
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality ↔
Thailand 25% broken
NQ
Vietnam 25% broken
350-360
↓
Pakistan 25% broken
330-340
↓
Cambodia 25% broken NQ
↔
India 25% broken
360-370
↔
U.S. 15% broken
515-525
↔
Long grain parboiled rice
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December 11, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd
400-410
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd
↔
410-420
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 380-390
↔
U.S. parboiled 4% broken
580-590
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken
570-580
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
↔
Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% Vietnam Jasmine
915-925 525-535
↔
India basmati 2% broken
NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken
NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Malis 825-835
↔
↔
Brokens Thailand A1 Super
330-340
Vietnam 100% broken 330-340
↔ ↑
Pakistan 100% broken stxd
290-300
Cambodia A1 Super
↔
NQ
India 100% Broken stxd
300-310
Egypt medium grain brokens
NQ
U.S. pet food
↔
445-455
Brazil half grain
NQ
↔
↔
↔
↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
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