Nordic Investor Confidence Index H1 2020
Persistent strong investor demand
DENMARK
FINLAND
NORWAY
SWEDEN
NORDIC
Majority of net buyers – lack of sellers
Q1 2020 Q3 2019
71%
62%
Q1 2020 Q3 2019
55%
Q1 2020
63%
Q3 2019
5% 13%
16%
6%
33%
7%
25%
68%
74% 70%
Increase: more acquisition than disposal Stable: as much disposal as acquisition Decrease: more disposal than acquisition Cushman & Wakefield – Nordic Investor Confidence Index
25%
78% 61%
7%
10%
33%
Q3 2019
Q1 2020
28%
69%
Q1 2020
Q3 2019
23%
13%
16%
16%
21% 26%
6% 4%
Office development, Nordic capital cities Prime rent â‚Ź/m2 (fixed FX at period end) 800 Copenhagen
Helsinki
Oslo
Stockholm
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Cushman & Wakefield – Nordic Investor Confidence Index
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research & Insight
Improving office and industrial space demand in Finland and Denmark… …and continued pessimistic outlook on retail
NORDIC
OFFICE
NORDIC
RETAIL
NORDIC
LOGISTIC / INDUSTRIAL
Q1 2020
Q1 2020
Q1 2020
Q3 2019
Q3 2019
Q3 2019
Q1 2019
Q1 2019
Q1 2019
Q3 2018
Q3 2018
Q3 2018
SWEDEN Q1 2020 NORWAY Q1 2020 FINLAND Q1 2020 DENMARK Q1 2020
Cushman & Wakefield – Nordic Investor Confidence Index
SWEDEN Q1 2020 NORWAY Q1 2020 FINLAND Q1 2020 DENMARK Q1 2020
SWEDEN Q1 2020 NORWAY Q1 2020 FINLAND Q1 2020 DENMARK Q1 2020
Office development, Nordic capital cities Prime yield CBD 9,00% 8,00%
Copenhagen
Helsinki
Oslo
Stockholm
7,00%
6,00% 5,00% 4,00% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 0,00%
Cushman & Wakefield – Nordic Investor Confidence Index
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research & Insight
Further expectations of compressing office yields… … and is retail turning around in Denmark?
NORDIC
OFFICE
NORDIC
Q1 2020
Q1 2020
Q3 2019
Q3 2019
Q1 2019
Q1 2019
Q3 2018
Q3 2018
RETAIL
NORDIC
LOGISTIC / INDUSTRIAL
Q1 2020 SWEDEN Q1 2020 NORWAY Q1 2020
SWEDEN
SWEDEN
Q3 2019 Q1 2019 Q3 2018
Q1 2020 NORWAY
Q1 2020 NORWAY
FINLAND Q1 2020 Q3 2019
Q1 2020 FINLAND
Q1 2020 DENMARK
Q1 2020 FINLAND
Q1 2020 DENMARK
Q1 2019 Q3 2018 DENMARK Q1 2020 Q3 2019 Q1 2019
Q1 2020
Cushman & Wakefield – Nordic Investor Confidence Index
Q1 2020
Not available
Q3 2018
Not available
What is worrying Denmark & Sweden regarding financing conditions? … transactions in Norway are rather restricted by a lack of good projects FINLAND
DENMARK
Q3 2018
Q1 2019
Q3 2019
Q1 2020
Q3 2018
Q1 2019
Q3 2019
NORWAY
Q1 2020
Improve Cushman & Wakefield – Nordic Investor Confidence Index
Q3 2018
Q1 2019
Q3 2019
NORDIC
SWEDEN
Q1 2020
Show little or no change
Q3 2018
Q1 2019
Worsen
Q3 2019
Q1 2020
Q1 2019
Q3 2019
Q3 2019
Q1 2020
Optimistic view on own portfolio Rent growth, vacancy development & yield development all expected to contribute PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT
GROWTH DRIVERS
NORDIC
Q1 2020 Q3 2019 Q1 2019 Q3 2018 SWEDEN Q1 2020 NORWAY Q1 2020 FINLAND Q1 2020 DENMARK Q1 2020
Improving Cushman & Wakefield – Nordic Investor Confidence Index
Unchanged
Worsening
Rental growth Vacancy development Yield movement Financing conditions Development of operating and maintenance cost
CONTACT US Sweden Annika Edström Head of What´s Next/Research Annika.edstrom@cushwake.com +46 70 234 59 25
Denmark Lior Koren Partner, Capital Markets lk@cw-red.dk +45 2711 0508
Norway Hans Petter Skogstad Head of Research / COO hps@cwrealkapital.com +47 93 86 66 8
Finland Ville Suominen Partner, Valuation & Advisory ville.suominen@cushwake.fi +358 44 568 4300 Cushman & Wakefield – Nordic Investor Confidence Index