MARKET REPORT ISSUE I - FEB 2018
Patrizia acquired 259 condominiums from Pensam and By & Havn in the North Harbor - located by the harbor front. Cushman & Wakefield | RED facilitated the sale.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
RECORD HIGH INVESTMENT VOLUMES IN 2017
ISSUE I 2018
2 / 35
2016 Q4 2017 Q4 CHANGE
Prime yield (Copenhagen City)
4.00%
3.75%
-25 bp
Investment volume in million
1,113 €
751 €
-362 €
Vacancy (Copenhagen City)
7.80%
5.70%
-210 bp
CHANGE
RETAIL
2016 Q4
2017 Q4
Prime yield (Copenhagen High Streets)
3.00%
3.00%
0 bp
Secondary yield (Copenhagen Side Streets)
4.50%
4.00%
-50 bp
451 €
1,458 €
+1,007 €
Investment volume in million
The hotel investment market has been added to this issue of our market report, as we in 2017 also observed a significant investor focus in this segment. As Copenhagen hotel capacity is high, investors have been highly active, both within optimization, investment and construction of new hotels. We strongly recommend our readers to visit our website at cw-red.dk to experience our dynamic analysis tool. The tool is continuously updated to show you the newest developments.
INDUSTRIAL 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 CHANGE Prime yield (Copenhagen Area)
6.75%
6.00%
-75 bp
Prime yield (Triangle Area)
7.00%
6.25%
-75 bp
67 €
112 €
+45 €
Investment volume in million
TRANSACTION VOLUME (BN DKK) 2017 - DKK 92 BN ~ EUR 12.3 BN 37
19
17
Enjoy the report! 9 Other
10 Industrial
Nicholas Thurø Managing Partner Cushman & Wakefield | RED
Retail
Our focus article in this report highlights that Danish shopping centres are largely shielded from the bloodshed that is expected to take place in the U.S shopping centre market and despite eCommerce’s
OFFICE
Office
The Danish retail segment have historically been driven by the lucrative highstreet assets in central Copenhagen, but as yields on high-street assets are getting historically low, investors are also looking towards other attractive risk-adjusted investment within the retail segment. Among other things, we saw a significant increase in investments of individual shopping centres and portfolios in 2017.
continuous growth, investors in Danish shopping centres are optimistic that they – with new technology and optimized tenant mix – will be able to deliver attractive risk adjusted returns going forward.
Residential
Through 2017, the Danish commercial real estate market continued to attract vast amount of capital from both foreign and domestic investors resulting in another record year, as we registered transactions worth DKK 92 bn. The residential segment was once again the largest segment, followed by office and retail. Additionally, we observed an increased activity within the smaller segments such as hotels and logistics/industrial.
INVESTMENT MARKET
CONTENT ISSUE I FOCUS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
MACROECONOMICS
11
....................................................
INVESTMENT MARKET HOTEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14
OFFICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16
RESIDENTIAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17
RETAIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18
INDUSTRIAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19
TRANSACTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
OCCUPIER MARKET
OFFICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
RETAIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
27
RETAIL - FOOTFALL ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
28
APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION
DANSK VERSION AF FOKUS ARTIKEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
32
ISSUE I 2018
3 / 35
EUROMONEY 2017 - WINNER OF 4 AWARDS
2017 2016
ISSUE I 2018
4 / 35
ISSUE I FOCUS
ISSUE I 2018
5 / 35
DANSK VERSION PÅ SIDE 32
ISSUE I FOCUS SHOPPING CENTRES CONTINUE TO ATTRACT INVESTORS
WHILE THE SHOPPING CENTRE MAR-
Credit Suisse predicts. The U.S. has the
RETAIL TRANSACTIONS
KET IN THE U.S. IS DISTRESSED WITH
world’s highest shopping centre GLA
12 12 BN DKK
PREDICTION OF WIDESPREAD CLO-
(gross letting area) per capita, while the
SURES, 2017 WAS A RECORD-SETTING
Danish planning act have limited the to-
YEAR FOR SHOPPING CENTRE DEALS
tal number of shopping centres, leaving
IN DENMARK. THE OVERALL RETAIL
Denmark with the lowest shopping cen-
VOLUME MORE THAN DOUBLED TO
tre GLA per capita in the Nordic Region.
DKK 17 BN FROM 2016 BECAUSE OF
Additionally, Denmark currently do not
AN IMPRESSIVE DKK 9.6 BN WORTH
have any Off market retailers operating
OF SHOPPING CENTRE DEALS.
in the country, and while we might see
THE DANISH SHOPPING CENTRE MARKET IS LARGELY SHIELDED FROM THE BLOODSHED THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN THE U.S AND DESPITE
ECOMMERCE’S
CONTINU-
OUS GROWTH, INVESTORS IN DANISH SHOPPING CENTRES ARE OPTIMISTIC THAT THEY – WITH NEW TECHNOLOGY
AND
OPTIMIZED
TENANT MIX – WILL BE ABLE TO DELIVER ED
ATTRACTIVE
RETURNS
RISK
GOING
ADJUST-
FORWARD.
a TJ Maxx or similar opening stores in
57%
10 10 BN DKK 8 BN 8 DKK
43%
6 BN 6 DKK
71% 9.6
BN DKK
4 BN 4 DKK 29%
2 BN 2 DKK
7.2
BN DKK
5.2
BN DKK
2.2
BN DKK
--
2016
2017
Denmark at some point, the compe-
Shoppingcentre transactions
tition from this type of retailer is very
Other retail transactions
much limited for the foreseeable future.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield | RED
ECOMMERCE – A BIG UNKNOWN
eCommerce. We want to utilize eCom-
Ecommerce, is however, something that
merce to further develop our shopping
is an immediate challenge for Danish
centres”.
physical retail, including shopping centres, which one of the largest shopping owners, Dades, also recently confirmed, when commercial director Jakob Møller told Borsen: “Ecommerce is something
The major global bank, Credit Suisse,
we take very seriously, and we are not
predicted last year, that up to 25% of U.S.
in a position where we can outcompete
As of 2017, eCommerce retail sales constituted 10.4% of the total retail sales in Denmark and although this figure in no way indicates the death of physical retail, the figure is expected to rise going forward and over a broad-spectrum challenge physical retail.
shopping centres will disappear over the coming years due to rising competition from eCommerce and shoppers’ increas-
20 ECOMMERCE SHARE OF TOTAL RETAIL TRADE 17.8%
ing preference for off-price retailers – that is retailers who rely on selling off the season items at low prices. However, an elevated transaction activity with
15%
15.1%
15
14.8%
Danish shopping centres in 2017 suggests that investors do not believe that Credit Suisse’s prediction will hold true for Danish shopping centres, but why?
10.4%
10%
10
8.8%
DANISH SHOPPING CENTRES SHIELDED
5%
There is a major market structure dif-
5
ference between the U.S. and Denmark within the shopping centre market, which is why, we believe that Danish shopping centres to a higher degree will be shielded from the bloodshed that
0%
0
Denmark 2014
European Average 2015
United Kingdom 2016
Germany
United States
2017(f)
Source: CRR, RetailMeNot, Statista, Cushman & Wakefield
ISSUE I 2018
6 / 35
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
CENTRES FOR SALE
CENTRES SOLD 2016-2017
Ballerup Centret Boholtecentret Butikscenter Ølby Egedal Centret Farum Bytorv Hørsholm Midtpunkt Ro’s Torv Sct. Mathias Centret Sillebroen Solrødcentret Spinderiet Viby centret Waterfront Shoppingcenter Waves
Amager centret BIG City 2 City Vest Copenhagen Designer Outlet Esbjerg Storcenter Frederikgsberg Centret Friheden Butikscenter Friis Gallerierne Hillerød Glostrup shoppingcenter Helsingør Bycenter Herlev Bymidte Humlebæk Centret Hvidovre C Ishøj Bycenter Kolding Storcenter Lyngby Storcenter Næstved Storcenter Nørrebro Bycenter Randers Storcenter Skovlunde Centret Slotsarkaderne Tårnby Torv Vestamagercentret Vestsjællandcentret Veri Centret Holte Midtpunkt
NEW CENTRES Broen Esbjerg Kronen Vanløse Strædet Køge
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
ISSUE I 2018
7 / 35
DANSK VERSION PÅ SIDE 32
ISSUE I FOCUS In more established markets such as
TECH TO BOOST SHOPPING EXPE-
taking or returning to shelves and keep-
the U.S., Germany and England, eCom-
RIENCE
ing track of the items in a virtual shop-
merce’s share of the retail markets has
Another important force, which we be-
ping cart. When the customer leaves the
increased significantly in recent years
lieve will be important to utilize for shop-
store,
ping centre owners, is new technology.
your account and sends a receipt. Simi-
to between 14.8% and 17.8% as of 2017. We find it highly likely that the Danish eCommerce share will keep growing to at least the same levels as our neighbors - Germany and England, when eCommerce giants like Amazon and eBay thoroughly anchor themselves in the market.
MORE F&B TO COUNTER COMPETITION
We believe that Augmented Reality (AR) in the future will be used to enhance the physical shopping experience, while Big Data will facilitate better analysis of, and
Amazon
automatically
larly, Bestseller also recently opened two new stores in China, where customers can pay trough facial recognition technology, making credit cards and cash obsolete.
tools to optimize and manage, the shop-
“The Danish retail industry is forced to
per flow on a daily basis by knowing more
adapt to current and future trends which
precisely, who and what kind of shopper
are shaping the industry. An unwilling-
are where in the centre at any given time.
ness to adapt will evidently lead to lost
As the competition from eCommerce
Another example of how to utilize new
intensifies, shopping centre investors
technology in the physical retail store is
will need to mitigate the rising competi-
Amazon’s newly opened concept grocery
tion to stay competitive. This involves a
store. The store uses computer vision,
more diverse tenant composition, with a
deep learning algorithms and sensor fu-
smaller share of traditional retail stores,
sion to detect everything the customer is
market shares. There are definitely new opportunities for shopping centres, and they must be identified and explored”, says Managing Partner Nicholas Thurø from Cushman & Wakefield | RED.
and a larger share of tenants whose services cannot be easily substituted by eCommerce. ECOMMERCE ECOMMERCE RESISTANT RESISTANT TENANTS TENANTS • Pharmacy • Food & Beverages • Cinemas • Public services • Fitness
One of the most important tenant groups in future shopping centers is believed to be the food and beverage-group (F&B’s) and we have already begun to see an increased focus from the shopping centre owners to expand their centres’ F&B offering. The largest shopping center in Denmark, Fields, decided a couple of years back to revitalize their dining experience by attracting numerous restaurants for their top floor, while Lyngby Storcenter
also
changed
the
main
square of the centre into a food court.
ISSUE I 2018
8 / 35
FOCUS
charges
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
OUTLOOK While physical retail is being disrupted
FACT BOX
by emerging technology and changing
2017 was a record-setting year in terms of shopping centre deals in
shopper preferences, real estate investors
Denmark, as we registered transactions worth impressive DKK 9.6 bn.
continue to believe in shopping centres
In particular, ATP’s acquisition of 50% of Danica’s shopping centre
as an asset class. Recently, we have also
portfolio for DKK 6.9 bn stressed investor’s confidence in the asset
seen pure online retailers opening physi-
class, but also, Blackrock’s purchase of Naestved Storcenter for ap-
cal stores, such as Boozt, which is a clear
prox. DKK 1 bn and Stepstones acquisition of NREP’s portfolio of local
sign that shoppers still demand a physical
shopping centre for approx. DKK 1.5 bn cemented investors’ belief that
aspect to their shopping experience. With
shopping centres continues to offer a healthy risk adjusted return.
agile behavior, a willingness to invest and adapt new technology solutions, we too, believe that shopping centre investors will
Additionally, Dades is currently also in the market looking for a partner to co-own their 12 Danish shopping centres.
be able to deliver attractive risk adjusted returns on their investment going forward.
PROJECT OCEAN Cushman & Wakefield | RED advised ATP in their acquisition of 50% of Danica’s shopping centre portfolio consisting of 16 centres across Denmark for approx. DKK 6.9 bn.
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
ISSUE I 2018
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MACROECONOMICS
ISSUE I 2018
10 / 35
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW 2017 WAS ANOTHER POSITIVE YEAR FOR THE DANISH ECONOMY The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth
MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
has been steady with rates ranging from
KEY VARIABLE
A YEAR AGO
MOST RECENT
1.91%
1.53% 1.39%
TREND
0.4% to 1.1% each quarter, although it dropped 0.5% from Q2 2017 to Q3 2017.
GDP Growth Rate y/y
A limited household consumption in
Inflation Rate y/y
0.60%
part led to a drop in GDP growth, which
Unemployment Rate - Denmark
6.40%
5.60%
to some extent can be explained by the
Unemployment Rate - Copenhagen Region
6.50%
6.40%
abrupt stop in car sales across Den-
10 year Government Bond
mark, as uncertainty related towards
Short Term Mortgage Rate - 1 and 2 year bonds
tax changes resulted in historically low
Long Term Mortgage Rate - 30 year bonds
number of car sales in the fall of 2017.
Source: Statistics Denmark, Association of Danish Mortgage Banks and The Danish National Bank
0.29%
0.15%
-0.36%
-0.53%
2.54%
2.06%
Despite the drop in Q3, the total growth in the period from Q4 2016 to Q3 2017 was 1.5%.
REAL GDP DEVELOPMENT (QUARTER-ON-QUARTER)
Inflation rates in Denmark and Europe
1.2%
1.15%
appreciated in the beginning of 2016, but have since August 2017 depreci-
1.0%
ated, and was as of November 2017 at 1.3% in Denmark, which is 0.5%-point
0.8%
0.75%
lower than the European 1.8% average.
0.67% 0.60%
0.6%
0.60%
Interest rates in Denmark remain at historically low levels. While it is nearly im-
0.43% 0.4%
possible to predict how they will develop in the future, economist and banks do not expect much change in 2018. They do stress, however, that the economy, and the low rates are supported by
0.2%
0.0%
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
a much stronger foundation, compared to the period before the last recession. Danish
employment
went
up
by
-0.2%
-0.4%
11,200 people from Q2 to Q3 2017, which ing
corresponds unemployment
to
the
declin-
numbers
as
-0.48% -0.6% Source: Statistics Denmark
these have been steadily dropping
The continuous increase in employ-
from 230,000 people in late 2012, to
ment, along with higher disposable in-
167,000 people in late 2017. Unem-
come has reflected positively on private
ployment in Denmark is of late 2017
consumption, along with higher private
approx. 6% of the workforce. Many
savings and wealth deposits. Low in-
sectors, and especially within con-
terest rates continue to be the primary
struction
inabili-
reason of increasing real estate prices,
ty to recruit workers, which is quite
mainly in the popular areas of Copen-
negative for the respective sectors.
hagen and Aarhus.
have
FOCUS
reported
an
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT  MARKET
OCCUPIER  MARKET
APPENDIX
ISSUE I 2018
11 / 35
HOLTE MIDTPUNKT Cushman & Wakefield | RED represented NREP in their sale of 7 shopping centres acquired by the global property fund StepStone for approx. DKK 1.5 bn.
ISSUE I 2018
12 / 35
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
INVESTMENT MARKET
ISSUE I 2018
13 / 35
INVESTMENT MARKET - HOTEL THE RAPID GROWTH IN THE TOURISM INDUSTRY MAY RESULT IN A SHORTAGE OF HOTEL ROOMS
THE COPENHAGEN HOTEL MARKET IS
2017 this number has risen to 2 M, clearly
The positive development within this
AMONG THE STRONGEST IN EUROPE,
indicating the enormous growth of Airbnb
segment is expected to continue, as
SHOWING REMARKABLE PROGRESS
users in Denmark. This signifies a demand
both the Copenhagen Cruise Terminal
IN RECENT YEARS WITH A CONTIN-
for low-cost accommodation opportuni-
and Copenhagen Airport are expanding
UOUSLY
OCCUPANCY
ties, that many hotels cannot supply. The
in response to the increasing amount of
RATE. THE SUCCESS OF THE COPEN-
INCREASING
occupancy rate and ADR (Average Dai-
inbound tourism and business travelers.
HAGEN HOTEL MARKET, AND THE
ly Rate) are both continuing to increase
PROMISING TENDENCIES SUPPORTED
which affects the RevPAR (Revenue Per
The investment activity on the ho-
BY HISTORICALLY STRONG NUMBERS
Available Room) of hotels similarly. More-
tel market is becoming considerably
IS INCREASING INVESTORS’ WILLING-
over, according to HVS’ report “European
intensified as shown on the transac-
NESS TO ACQUIRE A SLICE OF THE
Hotel Valuation Index 2017”, Copenhagen
tion diagram, in which the transac-
PIE. FURTHERMORE, THE ESCALATING
is maintaining its position among the three
tion volume in Denmark has increased
ACTIVITY HAS INITIATED AN EXTEN-
least volatile hotel markets in Europe.
significantly since 2015. In 2016, Denmark reached approx. DKK 2.5 bn. –
SIVE PROCESS OF HOTEL DEVELOPMENTS IN GREATER COPENHAGEN IN WHICH ROOM CAPACITY IS EXPECTED
more than twice the investment in 2015.
TRANSACTIONS
We still see a great progress in terms of
TO INCREASE WITH 13% BY 2020. BUT
Domestic and foreign investors are
transaction volume, as 2017 amounted
IS THIS ENOUGH?
directing more focus on diversifying
to an astounding DKK 5.3 bn. In con-
their real estate portfolios by allocating
trast, the total European hotel transac-
substantial amounts of capital to the
tion volume amounted to EUR 17.8 bn.
hotel market, arguably due to more at-
in 2016, which was a decline of 25%
tractive risk-adjusted yields but clearly
on the volume achieved in 2015.
PROMISING TENDENCIES In general, the Copenhagen hotel market is fairly competitive with numerous hotels
also to meet the skyrocketing demand.
HOTEL ACCOMMODATIONS VS AIRBNB IN COPENHAGEN
ranging on a wide scale from budget to luxury.
90%
10 Airbnb accommodations (nightly stays)
The increasing amount of inbound tour-
Hotel accommodations (nightly stays)
9
ism and business accommodation, com-
80%
Occupancy rate (right axis)
bined with an insufficient supply has
8
21%
pushed the occupancy rates to historical high levels, increasing hotel revenue
there has been a capacity growth of over 30% since 2008. However, our expectation is that in the short term, there will be a shortage of hotel rooms de-
60%
8%
MILLION PEOPLE
ly growing and in the Copenhagen area,
70%
7
and investor attention. Additionally, the capacity of hotel rooms is continuous-
23%
13%
6 50% 5 40% 4 92%
87%
79%
77%
30%
3
spite the high activity of developments. 20%
2
Hotels account for most of the yearly accommodations, but the use of Airbnb is rising significantly. In Copenhagen, the
ISSUE I 2018
14 / 35
FOCUS
0%
0
number of Airbnb accommodations in 2015 amounted to approx. 1 M and as of
10%
1
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: HVS, airbnbcitizen & Statistic Denmark
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
HOTEL TRANSACTION VOLUME
The largest transaction conducted in 2016 was the collective acquisition of Hotel Marriott, located at Kalvebod Brygge, by ATP and PensionDanmark for DKK 1.1 bn. In 2017, Wenaasgruppen conducted the largest transaction by the acquisition
Danish
6
Foreign 5.28
5
4
of Hotel Bella Sky for DKK 1.6 bn.
3.01
3
2.54
The privately held corporation, Strawberry Fields, in charge of Nordic Choice Hotels is highly active on the hotel market in Copenhagen. In 2016, the Norwegian corporation orchestrated an interesting
2 1.37
1.23 1
54%
1.07
92%
70%
87%
92%
0 2012
investment in the historic Centralpostbygning with the intention of transform-
96%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Cushman Wakefield | RED
ing the property into a luxurious hotel with space for 380 rooms expected to HOTEL PIPELINE
NO. OF ROOMS
SUM INVESTED (DKK)
OPENING YEAR
sqm. In 2017, Strawberry Fields continues
Nimb (Tivoli Corner)
21 (room expansion)
N/A
2018
its conquest in Denmark by taking over
Charlottehaven
37 (apartment expansion)
150 M
2018
the operation of Hotel Hilton at Copen-
Moxy
220
90 M
2018
Scandic Meatpacking
370
610 M
2018
Brøchner Hotels, Herman K - Bremerholm 6
31
< 100 M
2018
Arp-Hansen, Wakeup - Kalvebod brygge
585
N/A
2018
TOTAL IN 2018
1,264
Scandic Falconer
332
N/A
2019
CitizenM - Dagmarhus
230
N/A
2019
open in 2020. The property in Tietgensgade dates back to 1912 and is 25,000
hagen Airport while investing DKK 800 M in the development of a brand-new hotel right next to it. The steady growth of travel and tourism in Denmark has caught the attention of Danish pension funds. In the pursuit of
Zleep Copenhagen Arena
198
N/A
2019
stable yields, these pension funds are
Arp-Hansen, Wakeup Borgergade
220 (room expansion)
N/A
2019
showing strong appetite by investing bil-
Brøchner Hotels, Hotel Ottilia - Carlsbergbyen
156
N/A
2019
lions in the hotel market. As aforemen-
Guldsmeden Hotels - Islands Brygge
200
200 M
2019
tioned, PensionDanmark took part in the
TOTAL IN 2019
1,336
Nordic Choice Hotels - Tietgensgade 37
380
1.3 BN
2020
Comfort Copenhagen Airport Hotel
500
800 M
2020
Scandic Copenhagen Airport
357
566 M
2020
TOTAL IN 2020
1,237
Additionally, ATP is planning on trans-
Scandic Spectrum - Kalvebod brygge
632
1.5 BN
2021
forming one of Copenhagen’s distinctive
TOTAL IN 2021
632
acquisition of Hotel Marriott. Moreover, AP Pension and Finnish pension fund Keva, have agreed to a joint-venture establishment of a 493-room hotel in Nordhavn which will be operated by Comwell.
commercial
properties,
“Ørkenfortet”,
Cabinn - Kalvebod brygge
1,200
N/A
TBA
into a luxury hotel with 400 rooms.
Comwell - Nordhavn
493
< 500 M
TBA
The promising tendencies in the Danish
ATP - Ørkenfortet
400
N/A
TBA
GRAND TOTAL
6,562
hotel market has led to a significant pipeline. These are announced projects currently under development.
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
Source: Ejendomswatch, Estate Media & Cushman Wakefield | RED
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
ISSUE I 2018
15 / 35
INVESTMENT MARKET - OFFICE INVESTMENTS ARE SPREADING TO OUTSIDE OF COPENHAGEN
The office transaction volume reached
INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q1 2017 - Q4 2017
a record high in 2017 with DKK 19.1 bn., which was nearly 20% of the total volume in 2017. Danish investors were the
Private Investors
most active in 2017 constituting 61% of
12%
the volume in the office segment. Real Estate Companies
For the first time in recent years, we have
25%
seen a larger amount of transactions outside Greater Copenhagen, with 36%
Others
of the office transactions being outside
16%
19.1
of Greater Copenhagen which compared to 2015 and 2016 were at 16% and 14% respectively.
BN DKK
The transaction activity in Q4 was supported by Swedish Klövern’s acquisition of Porcelænshaven in Frederiksberg, which consists of 19,300 sqm and included a long-term lease with Copenhagen
Institutional Investors
Business School. The acquisition price is
22%
Property Funds 25%
estimated to be DKK 620 M. The second most notable office transaction in Q4 was Genesta’s acquisition of DSB’s KB32
DANISH INVESTORS - 61 %
FOREIGN INVESTORS - 39 %
located at Kalvebod Brygge 32, with a total size of 28,000 sqm and a price of DKK 520 M. KB32 is facing a full re-de-
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
velopment by Genesta. We consider the prime yield for office locations in Copenhagen to be at a level of 3.75% supported by recent transactions
Source: Cushman & Wakefield | RED
in the market. This will have a spillover effect on the areas surrounding Copenhagen as we expect a downward pressure in these areas.
ISSUE I 2018
16 / 35
FOCUS
PRIME YIELDS SUBAREA
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Copenhagen City (CBD)
4.25%
4.10%
3.75%
Copenhagen E & W
5.75%
5.25%
4.50%
Frederiksberg
5.75%
5.25%
4.50%
Harbour areas
4.25%
4.10%
3.75%
South Harbour
6.00%
5.50%
5.50%
Ørestad
5.75%
5.50%
5.50%
Copenhagen N & NW
6.50%
6.25%
6.00%
South and West of Copenhagen
7.25%
7.00%
7.00%
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
INVESTMENT MARKET - RESIDENTIAL FOREIGN INVESTORS ARE GAINING MARKET SHARE
The residential market demonstrated a
INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q1 2017 - Q4 2017
strong performance in 2017 totaling DKK 37.2 bn. worth of transactions, and thereby remained the largest segment across.
Others
Moreover, foreign investors have now
3%
User 1%
reached 62% of the total transaction volume, which compared to 43% in 2016 is a significant increase. The combination of low supply and high
Private Investors
Real Estate Companies
20%
38%
demand is forcing investors to also look
37.2
outside of Copenhagen, such as Aarhus, Aalborg and other larger cities in Denmark. Investments conducted outside of
BN DKK
Copenhagen made up 47% of the total transaction volume in 2017 compared to 19% in 2016. We saw that foreign investors dominated the Copenhagen residential market. On
Property Funds 38%
the contrary, Danish investors held the majority of residential investments outside of Copenhagen.
DANISH INVESTORS - 38 %
In 2017, the top three investors were
FOREIGN INVESTORS - 62 %
Heimstaden, Core Bolig and Patrizia. Heimstaden was by far the most active
0%
investor in the residential segment mak-
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
ing several significant investments in Copenhagen. Patrizia, another foreign investor, conducted three relatively large
Source: Cushman & Wakefield | RED
investments in Copenhagen. Lastly, Core Bolig was the most active domestic investor with several small investments in
PRIME MARKET RENT DKK/SQM
PRIME YIELDS
which a majority of these were made outside of the Copenhagen area.
SUBAREA
The prime yield in the Copenhagen area
Copenhagen City
of Q4 has depreciated to 3.40%, which is
Copenhagen E, W & N
20 basis points lower than last quarter.
SUBAREA
Q4 2017
2,000 - 2,200
Copenhagen Area - rent control
1.50 - 3.00%
1,700 - 1,900
Copenhagen Suburb - rent control
3.00 - 4.00%
Frederiksberg
2,000 - 2,200
Copenhagen Area - market rent
3.40%
The prime yield in the Copenhagen sub-
North Harbour
2,000 - 2,200
Copenhagen Suburb - market rent
4.50%
urbs are at 4.50%, but we believe it will
South Harbour
1,600 - 1,800
depreciate further going forward.
Copenhagen S
1,500 - 1,700
North of Copenhagen
1,700 - 1,900
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
Q4 2017
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
ISSUE I 2018
17 / 35
INVESTMENT MARKET - RETAIL SHOPPING CENTRE TRANSACTIONS DOMINATED 2017
The total transaction volume in the re-
INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q1 2017 - Q4 2017
tail segment reached an impressive amount of approx. DKK 16.8 bn., which Real Estate Companies
represents 18% of the total transaction volume in 2017. This is the best perform-
Private Investors
ing year we have ever recorded for the
Others 3%
3%
8%
retail segment. Danish investors were the most active investors as they accounted for 55% of the total retail volume. The Danish retail segment experienced
16.8
a Q4 with an enormous transaction volume reaching DKK 12.5 bn. constituting almost twice the total retail transaction
BN DKK
volume of Q1, Q2 and Q3 combined thus making Q4 2017 the most active quarter since Q4 2014. Shopping centres were in focus with almost all major
Property Funds 40%
transactions in Q4 being acquisitions of
Institutional Investors
shopping centres.
46%
The transaction activity in Q4 was propped by ATP’s purchase of a 50% stake in Danica’s Shopping Centre portfolio for DKK 6.9 bn. The centres com-
DANISH INVESTORS - 55 %
FOREIGN INVESTORS - 45 %
prise of approx. 400,000 sqm retail space and approx. 1,100 tenants and at0%
60%
80%
STREET/SUBMARKET
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
expected to remain stable in the short
Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet)
3.60%
3.00%
3.00%
term, while we expect to see a steady in-
Strøget area
4.75%
4.50%
4.00%
vestment activity. This yield level mainly
Østerbrogade
5.50%
5.25%
5.25%
reflects high street assets.
Nørrebrogade
5.75%
5.50%
5.50%
Købmagergade
3.60%
3.00%
3.00%
Lyngby
5.75%
5.00%
4.75%
4.75%
4.25%
4.00%
tracts nearly 60 M shoppers yearly.
20%
40%
100%
Other substantial shopping centre transactions include StepStone's DKK 1.5 bn. acquisition of NREP’s shopping centres
Source: Cushman & Wakefield | RED
located mainly in Greater Copenhagen and Jutland, and Blackrock’s DKK 1 bn. acquisition of Næstved Storcenter. The prime yield level in Copenhagen is at an all-time low at 3.00%. The level is
PRIME YIELDS
SHOPPING CENTRES Copenhagen
ISSUE I 2018
18 / 35
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
INVESTMENT MARKET - INDUSTRIAL HIGH ACTIVITY AS INVESTORS SEEKED HIGHER YIELDING ASSETS
We saw an increased interest from inves-
INVESTOR BREAKDOWN – Q1 2017 - Q4 2017
tors towards this segment, as they beReal Estate Companies
lieved that the risk adjusted returns from the segment, in light of yield compres-
Institutional Investors Others 2%
sion elsewhere became more attractive.
4%
3%
Private Investors
The total transaction volume within the
7%
industrial segment in 2017 reached approx. DKK 9.7 bn. This is more than double the total industrial transaction volume of 2015 and 2016 combined, making
9.7
2017 the best performing year for the industrial sector since 2008. NREP’s acquisition of a dozen properties
BN DKK
for estimated DKK 2.4 bn. accounted for 25% of the transaction volume. The properties are located in Jutland, Zealand and in the Greater Copenhagen area.
Property Funds 84%
Investment activity in the industrial segment in Q4 was approx. DKK 950 M, where approx. 58% of the activity was led by foreign investors. Most of the as-
DANISH INVESTORS - 17 %
sets are single let and approx. 60% have
FOREIGN INVESTORS - 83 %
been acquired through sale and leaseback structures.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
The transaction activity in Q4 was propped by M7 Real Estates investment on behalf of M7 EREIP IV property fund’s acquisition of 117,00 sqm, includ-
Source: Cushman & Wakefield | RED
ing prime industrial and logistic assets placed in Greater Copenhagen, the island of Funen, and the Triangle area in Jutland. The properties were acquired for DKK 520 M. Prime yield for modern logistics properties with long leases continues to face a downward pressure. Prime yields in the Copenhagen area are now just below
PRIME MARKET RENT
DKK/SQM
PRIME YIELDS
SUBAREA
Q4 2017
SUBAREA
Q4 2017
Copenhagen Area
575
Copenhagen Area
6.00%
Triangle Area
475
Triangle Area
6.25%
Aarhus Area
425
Aarhus Area
6.50%
Modern logistics properties with long leases
Modern logistics properties with long leases
6.00%, while they are at 6.25% in the Triangle area in Jutland.
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
ISSUE I 2018
19 / 35
VESTER SØGADE 14 Cushman & Wakefield | RED offers an attractive land plot with a long lease in a public offering on behalf of The Municipality of Copenhagen.
ISSUE I 2018
20 / 35
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
TRANSACTIONS
ISSUE I 2018
21 / 35
TRANSACTIONS
OFFICE STREET STREET NAMENAME
LOCATIONDATE DATESIZE (SQM) SIZE PRICE PRICE VENDOR NAME BUYER TYPE BUYER NAME LOCATION VENDOR TYPE TYPE VENDOR VENDOR NAME BUYER TYPE BUYER NAME (SQM) (M DKK) (M DKK)
Office Portfolio - 8 Properties CPH
Q4
27,000
670
Property Fund
Thylander
Real estate company Jeudan
Hedeager 1-5 & Kystvejen Porcelænshaven 16-2829
Århus Frederiksberg2016/Q2Q4
23,600 RealProperty Estate Company 19,300 555.0 620 fund C.W. ObelNiam
Institutional Investor PensionDanmark Real estate company Klövern
Holmens Kanal 2 Kalvebod Brygge 32
CPH City CPH V
2016/Q1Q4
49,065 UserPublic institutionDanske Bank 28,000 1,400.0 520 DSB
Property Fund Investments Property fundStandard Life Genesta
Albanigade 30 Teknikerbyen
Odense Virum
2016/Q1Q4
4,300 Est. 26,000
Private Investor Karsten Bill Rasmussen Institutional investor PensionDanmark
Rytterkasernen Skovbrynet 211
Odense Lyngby
2016/Q1Q4
8,38517,061
61.0 203 Institutional Investor Danica Pension Private Investor Rasmussen Public institution Statens Ejendomssalg Property fundKarsten Bill Unkown foreign investor
Dag Hammarskjolds Ejlskovsgade 3 Allé 28
CPH E Odense
2015/Q4Q4
1,596 25,000
63.0
2015/Q4Q4
8,82611,028 161.0
Overgaden Oven VandetVej 60A60A CPH City Robert Jacobsens CPH S (Søkvæsthuset) Teknikerbyen
Private Investor investor Fritz Henrik Schur 185 Institutional Danica
Public Institution Embassy Property fundThe Turkish NIAM
Public Institution The Danish Armed Forces Private Investor Lennart Lajboschitz 170 Real estate company Atlas Ejendomme Institutional investor Lægernes Pensionskasse
Q4
Est. 23,000
Q4
10,353
Rahbeks Alle 21 62 Store Kongensgade
Frederiksberg CPH City 2015/Q4Q4
1,7723,285
52.2
78 Real estate company Atlas Ejendomme Institutional Private Investor Private Investor Real Estate Company investor Jeudan Lægernes Pensionskasse
C.F. Richs Stormgade 10Vej 103
Frederiksberg CPH City 2015/Q4Q4
2,3745,030
72.0
68 User Public Institution
Nordre Fasanvej 113-115 Strømmen 6
Frederiksberg2015/Q4Q4 Nørresundby
11,4043,072
73.5
58 Institutional investor Lægernes Pensionskasse UserReal estate company RTX A/S Atlas Ejendomme Private Investor K/S Strømmen
Store Kongensgade 22
Virum
52.3 Institutional Investor Danica Pension Est. 495 Institutional investor SEB
CPH City
Fremtidsvej 1
2015/Q4
CPH Area
Klostergade 28-30
Aarhus Area
1,244
Q4
48.5
2,584
122
Institutional investor
SEB
Institutional investor Sampension
90
Public institution
Bygningsstyrelsen
Real Estate Company JL Ejendom
51
Other Fund
Erik & Susanna Olesens Almen-
Public institution Kommune velgørendeGladsaxe Fond
Fødevareforbundet Private investor Private investor Freja Ejendomme Property Fund Artha Kapitalforvaltning
Private investor
Private investor
Real estate company
Ejendomsselskabet Olav De Linde
RETAIL STREET NAME
LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM)
PRICE VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME (M DKK)
BUYER TYPE
BUYER NAME
Institutional investor Danica
Institutional investor
ATP
Property fund
NREP
Property fund
StepStone Blackrock
Danica's Shopping CPH Area Center Portfolio 50%
Q4
Est. 400,000
6,900
Project Peach 7 Shopping units
Denmark
Q4
74,000
Est. 1,500
Næstved Storcenter
Næstved
Q4
42,633
978
Other
Dansk Supermarked
Property fund
Project Peach II 16 Properties
Denmark
Q4
24,000
520
Property fund
NREP
Real estate company JT Ross
Graham Bells Vej 13C Aarhus
Q4
8,465
144
User
Ilva
User
Frederiksborggade 7 CPH City
Q4
1,339
90
Institutional investor Marylebone Asset Management Property fund
Quadoro Doric Real Estate
Amagerbrogade 82
CPH S
Q4
2,986
84
Property fund
Capman
Developer
Copi Group
Industrivænget 2
Hillerød
Q4
4,327
47
Private Investor
Private Investor
Private Investor
Private Investor
Jysk Holding A/S
HOTEL HOTEL NAME
LOCATION
DATE
Comwell Hotel - Nordhavn (Project)
North Harbor
Q4
ISSUE I 2018
22 / 35
FOCUS
PRICE PER ROOM (DKK)
MACROECONOMICS
PRICE (M DKK) VENDOR NAME
Est. 1,500,000
INVESTMENT MARKET
Est. 740
KPC
OCCUPIER MARKET
BUYER NAME AP Pension & Keva
APPENDIX
RESIDENTIAL STREET NAME
LOCATION DATE
SIZE (SQM)
PRICE VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME (M DKK)
BUYER TYPE
BUYER NAME
Marmorbyen
North Harbor
Q4
27,600
> 1,000
Institutional investor Pensam
Property fund
Patrizia
Risskov Brynet
Aarhus Area
Q4
32,967
Est. 900
Scherfigs Have
CPH E
Q4
12,801
680
Developer
Property fund
Capman
Property Block - 4 Properties CPH W
Q4
12,799
314
Student Housing Project
Frederiksberg
Q4
8,240
300
Real estate company Wind Ejendomme
Real estate company Heimstaden
Havnehusene
Horsens
Q4
10,200
260
Developer
Real estate company Heimstaden
P2 - Valby
CPH Area
Q4
6,833
Confidential
Real estate company DFE
Property fund
Europa Capital
Nimbusparken 34
Frederiksberg
Q4
5,019
156
Real estate company DFE
Property fund
CBS Boligfond
Residential Portfolio - 4 Properties
Aarhus
Q4
4,499
125
Developer
Private Investor
Poul Thyregod
Åboulevard 27
Frederiksberg
Q4
2,614
120
Real estate company M. Goldschmidt Holding
Institutional investor
Lægernes Pensionskasse
Ryesgade 50
CPH E
Q4
3,961
93
Private investor
Real estate company Heimstaden
Birkedommervej 1
CPH Area
Q4
5,942
90
Institutional investor Pensam
Property fund
Core Bolig
Gammel Kongevej 152A
Frederiksberg
Q4
2,868
81
Private investor
Property fund
Blackstone
Jernbane Alle 48
CPH Area
Q4
1,874
71
Real estate company M. Goldschmidt Holding
Institutional investor
Lægernes Pensionskasse
Residential project
Rødovre
Q4
2,345
62
Developer
Other
Samrådets Boligsselskab
Jernbane Alle 31
CPH Area
Q4
2,236
54
Real estate company Atlas Ejendomme
Institutional investor
Lægernes Pensionskasse
Herluf Trolles Gade 3
CPH City
Q4
1,981
42
Other
Property fund
Blackstone
Domis
Institutional investor Pensam Real estate company
Real estate company Heimstaden
Admiral Capital & Ejendomsselskabet Norden
Property fund
RHB Development
Domis
Private investor
Private investor
Elf Development
Other
Blackstone
INDUSTRIAL STREET NAME
LOCATION
DATE
SIZE PRICE VENDOR TYPE (SQM) (M DKK)
M7 EREIP IV - Logistic Fund
Denmark
Q4
115,327
519
Nymøllevej 78
Lyngby
Q4
7,310
63
Real estate company Atlas Ejendomme
Charles Lindberghs Vej 8, 9 & 13
Jutland
Q4
25,124
39
Property fund
User
VENDOR NAME BUYER TYPE
BUYER NAME
User
Property Fund
M7 Real Estate
Institutional investor
Lægernes Pensionskasse
Real estate company
Jansen Ejendomme
Blackstone
LAND STREET NAME
PURPOSE
LOCATION
DATE
SIZE (SQM. OF PRICE PER SQM. OF PRICE (M BUILDING RIGHT) BUILDING RIGHT DKK)
VENDOR NAME
Amager Strandvej 50-54 Residential
CPH S
Q4
3,324
Est. 10,270
Ved Amagerbanen 39
Residential
CPH S
Q4
19,840
Est. 10,270
Est. 204 DFE
Gefion Group
Ved Amagerbanen 37
Residential
CPH S
Q4
7,537
Est. 10,270
Est. 77 DFE
Gefion Group
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
Est. 34 Dansk Merchant Capital
BUYER NAME
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
Gefion Group
ISSUE I 2018
23 / 35
60%
32%
32%
21% 29%
15%
11%
BOOZT.COM As the first eCommerce retailer to open a physical store in Denmark on a high-street location, Cushman & Wakefield | RED advised Boozt.com with their forthcoming opening this spring.
ISSUE I 2018
24 / 35
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
OCCUPIER MARKET
ISSUE I 2018
25 / 35
OCCUPIER MARKET - OFFICE OPEN PLAN OFFICES TRENDING
SIGNIFICANT LEASES STREET NAME
LOCATION
DATE
SIZE (SQM)
TENANT
throughout 2018. The interest for multi-us-
Tuborg Boulevard 12
Hellerup
Q4 2017
7,339
Ascendis Pharma
er properties with shared common-facili-
Niels Hemmingsensgade 24
CPH City
Q4 2017
3,355
Unity
ties is something property owners must
Rådhuspladsen 45
CPH City
Q4 2017
2,276
Kantar Gallup
be aware of, when refurbishing and re-let-
Adelgade 12
CPH City
Q4 2017
1,204
AndCO A/S
ting their properties. The concept has be-
Rued Langgards Vej 6-8
CPH S
Q4 2017
2,078
Exerp
come popular through offering flexible
Lersø Parkallé 112
CPH E
Q4 2017
1,300
OK-Fonden
leases in attractive surroundings, and cre-
Kongens Nytorv 8
CPH City
Q4 2017
570
Executive Search Virksomhed
ating gathering points for small to medi-
Klausdalsbrovej 601
CPH Area
Q4 2017
21,802
Nets A/S
um businesses, who benefits from shared
Arne Jacobsens Allé 7
CPH S
Q4 2017
1,747
Swire Blue Ocean A/S
canteens, better facilities and flexible sur-
Østre Havnegade 12
Aalborg
Q3 2017
4,048
Flere lejere
roundings for growth.
Slet Parkvej
Aarhus
Q3 2017
8,782
SKAT - Bygningstyrelsen
Nansensgade 19
CPH City
Q3 2017
1,450
American Express - GBT
Throughout the last two quarters of 2017,
Emdrupvej 28
CPH E
Q3 2017
3,050
Abvie
we have seen some significant leases.
Tuborg Boulevard 12
Hellerup
Q3 2017
1,202
Stena Weco
-5
0.00% 0.00% 0,00%
-10
penhagen in the first half of 2017, which for Greater Copenhagen stabilized in Q3 and Q4 of 2017. The vacancy rate is still decreasing in Copenhagen City, and as a result, the rent level is increasing. Overall, the rent levels in Greater Copen-
Vacancy Copenhagen Vacancy rate Copenhagen City Vacancy raterate Copenhagen CityCity
Vacancy rate Copenhagen area Area Vacancy rate Copenhagen Vacancy rate Copenhagen Area
Unemployment Copenhagen Area Unemployment Copenhagen Area
Source: Statistics Denmark & Ejendomstorvet.dk
PRIME RENT DKK/SQM SUBAREA
2017 Q4
hagen has increased in 2017. As supply is
Copenhagen City (CBD)
1,800
low in Central Copenhagen, we see com-
Copenhagen E & W
1,350
panies seeking towards the outer areas
Frederiksberg
1,400
of Copenhagen, as rent levels here are
Harbour areas
1,850
lower. Despite the high rent levels, Cen-
South Harbour
1,300
tral Copenhagen continues to be popular,
Ørestad
1,450
partly due to easier acces to a sufficient
Copenhagen N & NW
1,250
workforce.
South and west of Copenhagen
1,000
North of Copenhagen
1,300
*Base rents ex. service charges
ISSUE I 2018
26 / 35
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
Q1 Q22017 2017 Q3 2016
1.00% 2.00% 2,00% 0.50%
Q3 Q4 2016 Q12016 2016 Q4Q12016 2017
We saw decreasing vacancy rates in Co-
0
Q1 Q22016 2016 Q3 2015 Q2 Q32016 2016
central Copenhagen.
2.00% 4.00% 4,00% 1.50%
Q3 Q42015 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 Q12015 2016
of this significant size are uncommon in
Q1 Q22015 2015 Q3 2014 Q2 Q32015 2015
outside of Central Copenhagen. Leases
5
6.00% 6,00% 2.50%
Q3 Q42014 2014 Q1 2014 Q4Q12014 2015
easily accessed by car, as it is situated
10
3.50% 8.00% 8,00% 3.00%
Q22014 2014 Q1 Q32014 2013 Q3 2014 Q2
of Greater Copenhagen, and the lease is
15
4.50% 10.00% 10,00% 4.00%
Q42013 2013 Q3 Q1 2013 Q12013 2014 Q4
on Klausdalsbrovej 601. Ballerup is part
12.00% 12,00% 5.00%
Q32013 2013 Q2 Q3 2012
In Ballerup, Nets A/S let 21,802 sqm lease
Q12012 2013 Q4 Q1 2012 Q22013 2013 Q1
Pharma let 7,339 sqm in January.
Office vacancy rates compared to unemployment in Copenhagen
Q32012 2012 Q2 Q3 2011 Q42012 2012 Q3
of Central Copenhagen, where Ascendis
VACANCY AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
2012 Q4Q12011 Q1 2011 Q22012 2012 Q1
beautiful multi-user building, just north
2011 Q2Q32011 Q3 2010 Q42011 2011 Q3
Latest on Tuborg Boulevard 12, in the
Q1 2010 2011 Q1Q22011
development to continue its growth
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
Q3 Q42017 2017
throughout 2017, and we expect this
Q2 Q32017 2017
Open plan offices have been trending
OCCUPIER MARKET - RETAIL GREATER INTEREST FOR THE SECONDARY AREAS
The common occupier’s usual center of attention is the square, Amagertorv,
SIGNIFICANT LEASES STREET NAME
LOCATION
DATE
Købmagergade 39
CPH City
2017/Q4
758
Boozt.com
Vimmelskaftet 36
CPH City
2017/Q4
163
Trend
Købmagergade 37
CPH City
2017/Q4
391
Asics
Vesterbrogade 2D
CPH City
2017/Q4
1,482
As expected, Chanel broke the pattern
Lyngby Hovedgade 39
Kgs. Lyngby
2017/Q4
516
Imerco
and chose a location for the store a bit
Kongens Nytorv 28
CPH City
2017/Q4
N/A
Chanel
outside the usual area for international
Købmagergade 47
CPH City
2017/Q4
538
Weekday
businesses, who most often place them-
Østergade 1
CPH City
2017/Q4
104
John Henric
selves in the Amagertorv area, where the
Frederiksborggade 5
CPH City
2017/Q4
N/A
Yousee
supply of available leases has become
Købmagergade 7
CPH City
2017/Q4
125
DAY - Birger et Mikkelsen
rather limited if not non-existing at all.
Østergade 13
CPH City
2017/Q4
247
Hvelplund
Chanel has published that their store will
Axel Towers
CPH V
2017/Q3
219
Joe & the Juice
be located on Kongens Nytorv 28.
Store Standstræde 14
CPH City
2017/Q3
85
which is housing luxury retailers such as Hermès, Louis Vuitton and Prada, however, the highstreets leading up to Amagertorv have been buzzing with activity.
SIZE (SQM)
NEW TENANT
Old Irish Pub
Le Labo
Another big surprise in Q4 2017 was the online retailer Boozt.com, who is moving
PRIME RENT DKK/SQM - ZONE A
in on Købmagergade 39, which makes it the first eCommerce retailer to fully
SUBAREA
2016 Q4
2017 Q4
CHANGE
commit to an upscale physical store in
Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet)
23,000
23,500
2.00%
Denmark on a high-street location.
Strøget area - side streets
10,000
10,500
5.00%
With the opening off Boozt.com, we are
Købmagergade
22,000
22,500
2.00%
excited to see how omnichannel will af-
Østerbrogade
7,000
7,000
0.00%
fect the retail market in Denmark. We
Nørrebrogade
3,500
3,500
0.00%
expect to see other eCommerce businesses invest in brick-and-mortar in the
VACANCY RATES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
high-street area.
Retail vacancy rates compared to consumer confidence in Copenhagen
There is a continued low leasing activity at the last part of Strøget from Gammeltorv to City Hall Square. The area is still suffering from the ongoing development of the metro city line at City Hall
5.00%
15
4.50% 4.00%
10
3.50% 3.00%
5
Source: Statistics Denmark & Ejendomsstorvet.dk
Square, which is expected to be com-
2.50%
pleted in 2019.
2.00%
0
1.50%
the Strøget area, we expect to see a
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2015
Vacancy rate Copenhagen area
Q2 2015
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Vacancy rate Copenhagen City
Q4 2012
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
-10 Q2 2011
to the increase in 2017. On Strøget and
0.00% Q4 2010
increase in the secondary areas, similar
-5
Q2 2010
ther throughout 2018. We expect a slight
1.00% 0.50%
Q3 2010
The rent level is expected to increase fur-
Consumer confidence index
Source: Statistics Denmark & Ejendomsstorvet.dk
larger increase in rent levels, than seen in 2017.
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
ISSUE I 2018
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FOOTFALL ANALYSIS BLACK FRIDAY HAS GOTTEN A HOLD OF THE DANISH SHOPPERS AND RETAILERS
In the fourth quarter of 2017, we observed
effect, the footfall count during the last
a significant increase in footfall on the
Friday before Christmas in 2017 was 5%
prime shopping streets of Copenhagen
higher compared to the corresponding
compared to the fourth quarter of 2016.
Friday in 2016. This was primarily based
This is demonstrated by the positive
on the huge number of pedestrians on
change in pedestrians on several of the
Amagertorv which nearly hit the same
streets listed to the right. The greatest
level as on Black Friday.
7.
7,100 Kultorvet
change is observed from the significant footfall counts will continue to increase
tailer, Hermès, also opened on the corner
gradually in the respective areas with
of Amagertorv and Læderstræde which
constructions sites nearing completion
may have been effective in drawing more
and opening of new stores.
e
Amagertorv. During Q4 the high-end re-
gad
As of 2018, it is our expectation that the
ager Købm
increase in the number of pedestrians on
pedestrians towards this area. Furthermore, the positive change in pedestrians on Østergade is expected to increase even further following the completion of the construction on Kongens Nytorv, as this involves a relocation of the main stairs from the Metro forcing pedestrians towards Strøget. The number of footfalls around the high streets of Copenhagen between the fourth quarter of 2016 and 2017 shows adequate improvement with a growth of 5% which is slightly higher than previous year indicating a relatively increasing progress. In general, there has been a 4% increase in the number of footfalls in 2017 compared to 2016.
Vimme
BLACK FRIDAY Once again, Black Friday became the pin-
e
ad
Nyg
nacle of the footfall counts. On this day, we saw 81% more people on Strøget and
Gammeltorv
66% on Købmagergade compared to an
4.
average Friday during 2017, which clear-
7,400
ly shows the event has gotten a hold of the Danish shoppers and retailers. In fact, 2017 is now the record year for footfall counts on Black Friday with an increase of approx. 6% from 2016.
e
ad
F
sb
rik
e red
g erg
CHRISTMAS SHOPPING In terms of the late Christmas shopping
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FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET Rådhuspladsen
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
FOOTFALL COUNTS IN Q4 2016 AND Q4 2017
THE MAP
NO. STREET NAME
The map shows the counting points and the average footfall per hour the last 12 months.
9.
5,300
3.
Q4 2016 Q4 2017
CHANGE
1
Amagertorv
5,388
7,272
1,884
2
Østergade
5,078
6,635
1,556
3
Pilestræde/Kronprinsensgade
2,340
2,855
515
4
Frederiksberggade
6,907
7,360
453
5
Vimmelskaftet/Amagertorv
5,845
6,215
370
6
Købmagergade/Silkegade
6,164
6,314
150
7
Frederiksborggade/Købmagergade
7,060
7,138
78
8
Købmagergade/Valkendorfsgade
6,463
5,917
-547
9
Rundetårn
6,003
5,326
-678
10
Købmagergade/Løvstræde
5,917
5,042
-876
2,900
10.
5,000 Kgs. Nytorv
8.
5,900
ade
2. sterg Ø
6,600 6.
6,300 Købm ager
gade
e
gad
Øster 1.
ertorv
Amag
5.
6,200
7,300
elskaftet
AVERAGE FOOTFALL COUNT 9,100
9,000 8,000
8,547 7,670
7,000 6,387
6,801
7,057
6,000 5,000
COUNTING METHODOLOGY
4,000
RED carries out the counts on Fridays at 4 pm with the purpose of registrering a development and conclude a level of footfall at different locations on Strøget and Købmagergade. The footfall is counted manually from both directions.
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
3,000 2,000 1,000 0
2015 Black Friday
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
2016
2017
Christmas
Average Friday
APPENDIX
ISSUE I 2018
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PIER 47 Pier 47 is a prominent and innovative office property located at Langelinie which offers architect designed offices. Rainmaking Loft opens a co-working office space for digital innovaters in the north end of the property. The middle and south end still offers available office space of 4,732 - 13,838 sqm. Contact Cushman & Wakefield | RED for more information at office@cw-red.
ISSUE I 2018
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FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION
ISSUE I 2018
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ENGLISH VERSION AT PAGE 6
UDGIVELSE I FOKUS DANSKE SHOPPINGCENTRE ER FORTSAT EFTERTRAGTEDE
SAMTIDIG MED AT SHOPPINGCENTER
fra Credit Suisse formentligt ikke sker
MARKEDET I USA ER UNDER HÅRDT
i Danmark. Dette er blandt andet fordi
PRES, VAR 2017 ET REKORDÅR FOR
den danske planlov har begrænset an-
DANSKE
TRAN-
tallet af shoppingcentre, hvilket også
SAKTIONER. DEN SAMLEDE RETAIL
har medført at Danmark har det laveste
TRANSAKTIONSVOLUMEN MERE END
GLA (gross letting area) i norden. Om-
FORDOBLEDE FRA 2016, OG ENDTE
vendt har USA verdens højeste GLA,
I 2017 PÅ REKORDSTORE 17 MIA. KR.
og derfor også den højeste interne
DETTE BELØB VAR PRIMÆRT DREVET
konkurrence. Derudover har Danmark i
AF SHOPPINGCENTRE, HVIS ANDEL
øjeblikket ikke off-market retailers som
STOD FOR HELE 9,6 MIA. KR.
TJ Maxx til at konkurrere med de tra-
DET
SHOPPINGCENTER
DANSKE
MARKED FRA DET
ER
SHOPPINGCENTER DELVIST
BESKYTTET
KAOS SOM HERSKER PÅ
DET AMERIKANSKE MARKED, OG SELVOM ECOMMERCE TAGER EN STADIG STØRRE DEL AF DET DANSKE RETAIL MARKED, ER INVESTORERNE I DANMARK OPTIMISTISKE, DA DET FORVENTES AT NY TEKNOLOGI OG EN OPTIMERING AF LEJERSAMMENSÆTNINGEN FREM- ADRETTET VIL GIVE ET
TILFREDS-
STILLENDE
AFKAST.
Sidste år var banken Credit Suisse
RETAIL TRANSAKTIONER 1212 mia. kr. 57%
1010 mia. kr. 8 mia. 8 kr.
43%
6 mia. 6 kr.
71% 9.6
mia kr.
4 mia. 4 kr. 29%
2 mia. 2 kr.
7.2
mia. kr.
5.2
mia. kr.
2.2
mia. kr.
--
2016
2017
ditionelle retailers. Dermed ikke sagt
Shoppingcenter transaktioner
at denne type retailer ikke kan træde
Andre retail transaktioner
ind på markedet, der ses bare ikke nogle eksempler på dette i øjeblikket.
ECOMMERCE – EN BOMBE UNDER DANSK RETAIL? Ecommerce er umiddelbart den største trussel
mod
det
traditionelle
Kilde: Cushman & Wakefield | RED
alvorligt, og vi er ikke i en situation, hvor vi vil udkonkurrere e-handel. Vi vil bruge e-handlen til at udvikle vore centre yderligere”.
retail
I 2017 voksede eCommerce andelen til
marked og heraf også shoppingcentre.
10,4% af den samlede retail handel i Dan-
Den kommercielle direktør Jakob Møller
mark. Og selvom det tal i sig selv ikke er
fra Dades, en af Danmarks største shop-
katastrofalt, har vi observeret en tydelig
pingcenter aktører, har udtalt til Børsen:
voksende tendens, som vil udfordre den
”E-handel er noget, vi tager meget
danske fysiske retail industri.
ude og spå at 25% af de amerikanske shoppingcentre ville lukke og forsvinde i den nærmeste fremtid, grundet
20 ECOMMERCE ANDEL AF TOTAL RETAIL OMSÆTNING 17.8%
en voksende konkurrence fra eCommerce, samt forbrugernes præference med at handle ved off-price retailers som handler varer udenfor sæson til
15%
15.1%
15
14.8%
lavere priser. Til trods for de grumme spådomme på det amerikanske marked, har det danske marked oplevet en rekordstor interesse fra investorer i 2017.
10.4%
10%
10
8.8%
Dette er et klart signal fra investorerne om, at de ikke forventer lignende tilstande i Danmark, men hvorfor det?
DANSKE
SHOPPINGCENTRE
5%
5
ER
BESKYTTEDE Der er store strukturelle forskelle imellem det danske og amerikanske marked, hvilket også betyder at spådommen
0%
0
Danmark 2014
Europa gennemsnit 2015
England 2016
Tyskland
USA
2017(f)
Kilde: CRR, RetailMeNot, Statista, Cushman & Wakefield
ISSUE I 2018
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FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
SHOPPINGCENTRE TIL SALG
SHOPPINGCENTRE SOLGT 2016-2017
Ballerup Centret Boholtecentret Butikscenter Ølby Egedal Centret Farum Bytorv Hørsholm Midtpunkt Ro’s Torv Sct. Mathias Centret Sillebroen Solrødcentret Spinderiet Viby centret Waterfront Shoppingcenter Waves
Amager centret BIG City 2 City Vest Copenhagen Designer Outlet Esbjerg Storcenter Frederikgsberg Centret Friheden Butikscenter Friis Gallerierne Hillerød Glostrup shoppingcenter Helsingør Bycenter Herlev Bymidte Humlebæk Centret Hvidovre C Ishøj Bycenter Kolding Storcenter Lyngby Storcenter Næstved Storcenter Nørrebro Bycenter Randers Storcenter Skovlunde Centret Slotsarkaderne Tårnby Torv Vestamagercentret Vestsjællandcentret Veri Centret Holte Midtpunkt
NYE SHOPPINGCENTRE Broen Esbjerg Kronen Vanløse Strædet Køge
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
ISSUE I 2018
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ENGLISH VERSION AT PAGE 6
UDGIVELSE I FOKUS Derudover kan vi se at eCommerce
Men på trods af de udfordringer som
fra deres konto og sender en kvittering
andelen i vores nabomarkeder, Tysk-
e-handel har ført med, ligeledes skaber
på de indkøbte varer. Bestseller har lavet
land og England, vokser endnu hurti-
udviklingen også muligheder som danske
et lignende koncept i to Kinesiske tøjbu-
gere, og har nu nået niveauer på mel-
shoppingcentre kan tage til sig.
tikker, hvor kunderne kan betale for deres
lem 14,8% og 17,8%. Alt andet lige vil eCommerce formentligt fortsætte sin vækst i Danmark, og hvis eCommerce giganter som Amazon for alvor slår sig ned i Danmark, kan vi forvente at eCommerce andelen vokser endnu hurtigere.
FOKUS PÅ ECOMMERCE RESISTANTE LEJERE
Vi forventer at Augmented Reality (AR) i fremtiden vil forbedre den fysiske shopping oplevelse, samt at Big Data kan
varer ved hjælp af ansigtsgenkendelses teknologi, hvilket fjerner kø og gør både kreditkort og kontanter overflødige.
skabe grundlag for optimering af centre
”Den danske retail industri er tvunget til
og give managers et bedre overblik over
at tilpasse sig de nuværende og fremti-
forbruger tendenser. Dette inkluderer en
dige trends som forandrer industrien. En
kortlægning af forbrugeren, samt hvor og
uvillighed til at tilpasse sig, vil forment-
hvornår shopperne bevæger sig.
ligt føre til en tabt markedsandel. Der er
I takt med at konkurrencen på retail
Et andet eksempel på udnyttelse af ny
markedet vokser, skal indsatsen fra
teknologi inden for fysisk retail er Ama-
shoppingcentre øges for at imødegå de
zons nyligt åbnede dagligvarer koncept
udfordringer som de står overfor. Dette
– Amazon Go. Butikken bruger et kom-
indebærer blandt andet, at indføre en
plekst computerprogram samt kameraer,
mere divers lejersammensætning, hvor
algoritmer og avancerede sensorer til at
andelen af traditionelle retail butikker
registrere alle varer som kunderne ligger
formindskes og andelen af lejere hvis
i deres kurv. Når kunderne forlader butik-
services ikke kan substitueres forøges.
ken trækker Amazon automatisk beløbet
tydelige muligheder for shoppingcentre, som skal identificeres og udnyttes” siger managing partner Nicholas Thurø fra Cushman & Wakefield | RED.
ECOMMERCE ECOMMERCE RESISTANT RESISTANTETENANTS LEJERE • Apotek • Restaurant og Café • Biograf • Offentlige Instutitioner • Fitness
En af de vigtigste lejere, i denne sammenhæng er restauratører. Vi kan allerede berette om forøget fokus på denne type lejer, da Fields blandt andre har sat benhårdt ind på madområdet ved at tiltrække en række restauranter til deres øverste etage. Lyngby Storcenter har ligeledes også ændret de centrale arealer til at imødekomme mere restauration.
TEKNOLOGIEN FORBEDRER SHOPPING OPLEVESEN Teknologiens udvikling har skabt en forstyrrelse på det danske retail marked. ISSUE I 2018
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FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
OUTLOOK
FAKTA BOKS
Imens det fysiske retail marked er under forandring fra ny teknolog og nye for-
2017 var et rekordår for de danske shoppingcenter transaktioner, da vi
brugerpræferencer har investorerne sta-
har observeret aktivitet for hele 9,6 mia. kr.
dig tiltro til shopping centre som et aktiv der kan generere et acceptabelt afkast. For nyligt har vi set eCommerce retailers åbne fysiske butikker. Boozt har åbnet en strøgbutik, hvilket er et signal om, at shopperne stadig kræver den fysiske tilstedeværelse for deres shopping oplev-
Særligt var ATP’s køb af 50% af Danicas shoppingcenter portefølje for 6,9 mia. kr., et udtryk for investorernes fortsatte tiltro til shoppingcentre. Andre store shoppingcenter handler indebærer Blackrocks køb af Næstved Storcenter for ca. 1 mia. kr., samt salget af NREP’s shopping portefølje for ca. 1,5 mia. kr. Dette viser en uanfægtet tiltro til et fortsat godt risikojusteret afkast.
else, der er dermed stadig behov for fy-
Derudover, er Dades i øjeblikket i markedet efter en køber til et joint
siske butikker, selvom eCommerce tager
venture af deres 12 shoppingcentre i Danmark.
større markedsandel. Med en agil tilgang, samt en villighed til at investere og tilpasse sig den nye teknologi, tror vi på at shoppingcenter investorerne kan blive ved med at skabe positive risikojusterede afkast i fremtiden.
PROJECT OCEAN Cushman & Wakefield | RED var køberrådgiver for ATP i deres overtagelse af 50% af Danica’s shoppingcenter portefølje bestående af 16 centre for ca. 6,9 mia. kr.
FOCUS
MACROECONOMICS
INVESTMENT MARKET
OCCUPIER MARKET
APPENDIX
ISSUE I 2018
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TRY OUR DYNAMIC ANALYSIS TOOL AT CW-RED.DK Cushman & Wakefield | RED has throughout the years worked structured and intense to increase the transparency on the Danish commercial real estate market. We have therefore introduced a dynamic research tool on our website that allows you to perform your own analysis by using our underlying market data. Enjoy!
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD | RED +45 33 13 13 99 · RED@CW-RED.DK