Cordesman/Wilner, Iran & The Gulf Military Balance Rev 3
AHC 2/29/12
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For example, the IRGC announced in February 2011 that it had developed an anti-ship ballistic missile, the Khalij Fars (“Persian Gulf”), which it claimed was capable of destroying US warships and commercial vessels.7 This announcement, and others like it, provides another reflection of Iran’s threat perceptions and strategic priorities. Iran’s focus on systems designed to counter superior US conventional forces is indicative that it perceives American – and other – foreign military power in the Gulf as an unacceptable threat to its national security and regional ambitions. As Iran has shaped its asymmetric assets, ballistic missile arsenal, and nuclear program as a deterrent to the US conventional advantage in the Gulf, it is clear that the American presence in the region is Iran’s principle concern. While Iran’s perception of the US is often openly negative and confrontational, Iran’s security approach to its Gulf neighbors was more nuanced following the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988 through roughly 2010, and Iran often used friendly rhetoric that invoked notions of Islamic brotherhood and regional solidarity. Yet, even when Iranian officials made conciliatory statements regarding their Gulf neighbors, they often did not refer to them as equals. For example, the Iranian Defense Minister was quoted as stating in September 2010 that: “There is no reason for regional countries to fear our weapons and military equipment… We have announced that whatever we have belongs to all regional nations, and we are even ready to supply… [Iranian-made weapons] to these countries.” 8
Such statements help reveal Iran’s regional aspirations and its perceptions of its Gulf neighbors. Iranian offers to share arms and military technology with neighboring countries have been a combination of political gestures, attempts to play a leadership role in the region, and attempts to provide a counterweight or regional alternative to US patronage. Regardless of its rhetoric at any given time, Iran has perceived its neighbors as competitors, not partners. These perceptions have been reinforced by the fact that Iran is a revolutionary Shi’ite state, while most of its neighbors are Sunni-dominated monarchies that have close ties to the US. Iran’s stance towards its neighbors has also steadily hardened in recent years. For example, the Chief of Staff of Iran’s armed forces – Major General Hassan Firouzabadi – articulated this perception clearly when referencing the GCC’s intervention in Bahrain’s 2011 unrest in a speech in April of 2011, Iran’s “National Day of the Persian Gulf:” "The Arab dictatorial regimes in the Persian Gulf are unable to contain the popular uprisings. Instead of trying and failing to open an unworkable front against Iran, these dictators should relinquish power, end their savage crimes and let the people determine their own future." 9
By the end of 2011, Iran was talking about closing the Gulf and making much more direct threats, Iran was found to be carrying out an assassination plot against the Saudi ambassador to the US in October 2011.
7
“Iran mass producing smart ballistic missiles: IRGC chief.” Tehran Times, February 8, 2011.
8
Defense Minister Says US Arms Sales to Regional States a Plot Aimed at Iran.” Islamic Republic News Agency. 22 Sept. ’10 9
“Gulf 'Belongs to Iran': Top Military Officer.” Associated Free Press. 30 April ‘11
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