Cordesman/Wilner, Iran & The Gulf Military Balance
AHC 6/3/12
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The difficulty in making such assessments is compounded by the fact that Iran can carry out every part of a nuclear weapons development program except final integration as series of parallel technology and manufacturing development efforts. It can also create a whole new set of layers to hide a covert program, and it can carry on creating new technologies like improved centrifuges and reactor development which it later can use to set up new enrichment sites in much smaller deep mountain shelters or surface buildings in the nuclear equivalent of a shell game. Virtually every such activity can be explained away if discovered, or denied with varying levels of credibility. Many can also have legitimate dual uses in civil programs or research or actually be civil uses. There also is no magic point where a nation reaches the “threshold level” and there are many different stages at which Iran can bring its nuclear program to readiness. Going on to enrich material to the level where a weapon can be assembled leaves great ambiguity as to Iran’s intentions and what it may conceal, as well as presents major problems in terms of outside assessments of how far Iran has actually progressed. Similarly, assembling – or claiming to assemble – a device does not require testing. Iran can leave its ability to design a functioning weapons through modeling and simulation a matter of speculation. Non-critical testing of a weapons design, or subcritical testing of a fractional explosion is an issue. A nuclear underground test does not reveal the level of progress in weapons design. Testing of simulated warheads may not be detected and does not require telemetry. Iran can create a complex network of deception, denial, fears, and false claims throughout the process of developing and deploying a nuclear weapon. Moreover, as IAEA reports have now shown over last decade, Iran can comply with most – or all – of the terms of the NNPT and IAEA inspection and still move forward at a slower, more parallel pace. In short, it is easy to select the evidence to match a given thesis about Iran’s programs and progress. But, although the evidence of a weapons program does steadily accumulate, all of these real world uncertainties must be kept constantly in mind. Figure IV.4 through Figure IV.43 address these issues and uncertainties by providing a range of data and views of developments in the Iranian nuclear and missile programs, Iran’s lack of cooperation with the IAEA, and indicate the possible weaponization of Iran’s nuclear program. These Figures deliberately provide a high level of detail to help distinguish sources and the individual aspects of Iran’s programs. It should be stressed, however, that they have many uncertainties and that there are still many aspects of the Iranian nuclear and missile programs that remain uncertain and controversial. Hard data are lacking on many aspects of Iran’s current efforts, and experts are forced to speculate. There are still experts who question whether Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, and there is no consensus over exactly how soon Iran will be able to get the weapons-grade fissile material it needs. Nevertheless, these figures shows patterns of Iranian activity, and potential future Iranian capabilities, that could have a massive impact on US and Iranian competition, and the security of the Arab states, Turkey, Israel, and Iran’s other regional neighbors.
Figure IV.5 provides the ISIS’ projection of Iran’s potential future capabilities to make weapon-grade uranium.
Figure IV.6
provides ISIS estimates regarding the different probabilities of Iranian paths to nuclear explosive materials. Each probability reflects the likelihood that 21