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Iran’s Growing Military Assets for Such a Mission As the previous analysis has shown, the Iranian military establishment and the IRGC is steadily acquiring the kind of military assets that can halt or obstruct Gulf shipping and threaten the US’ superior conventional naval forces in the region. Although US conventional power would defeat Iranian forces in a protracted conflict, Iran’s arsenal of smart munitions, anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), submarines, mines, and fast-attack craft potentially could inflict significant losses on US and allied forces and disrupt Gulf shipping in a surprise attack. There is no one scenario Iran would have to use in “closing the Gulf.” Iran might actually try to use all of its assets to close the Gulf, but this would almost force the US, its Southern Gulf allies, Britain, and France into an all-out attack on Iran’s conventional and asymmetric forces, and quite probably trigger a much broader set of attacks on Iran’s nuclear, missile, and military production facilities. Such a war would also cut Iran off from exporting its own petroleum and from critical imposts – including food, refined petroleum products, and manufactured goods. Iran has far smaller economic reserves than the Southern Gulf states and is already vulnerable to being shut out of the world banking system. In contrast, Iran has a host of different tools it could use to threaten traffic through the Gulf, harass shipping, carry sporadic “anonymous” or semi-deniable attacks, or conduct a careful campaign of attrition designed to keep up constant pressure but remain below the threshold that would provoke or justify a massive US-led campaign. If Iran stayed away from the Strait, it could also carry out such a campaign without threatening its own ability to export and import, and could seek the “weakest link” in the Southern Gulf to attack. Iran could play both a “short” and a “long” game – peaking its actions when this suited its interest, reducing or halting them if they became too provocative, and constantly changing its approach and tactics. This would also force the US and Southern Gulf states into a constant state of military alert and tension, greatly raising the cost to them ion countering Iran.
Iran’s Submarines and Submersibles Iran’s most modern assets for challenging US conventional power in the Gulf and closing the Strait include submarines, surface craft, mines, anti-ship missiles, and a number of other systems777879
Gunzinger, Mark and Dougherty, Chris. “Outside-In: Operating from Range to Defeat Iran’s Anti-Access and Area-Denial Threats.” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. January 17, 2012. http://www.csbaonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/CSBA_SWA_FNL-WEB.pdf 77
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Binnie, Jeremy. “Iran Flexes Sea Denial Muscles.” Jane’s Defence Weekly. January 5, 2012.
Richardson, Doug. “Iran Test-fires Missiles During ‘Velayat 90’ Naval Exercise.” Jane’s Missiles & Rockets. January 6, 2012. 79
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