Cordesman/Wilner, Iran & The Gulf Military Balance
AHC 6/3/12
101
chemical weapons state, and Israel has been caught importing the precursors for chemical weapons. Both Iran and Israel are suspected to have advanced biological weapons programs, and both present a possible risk that they could use conventionally armed precision-guided weapons to attack key power, water, refinery, and other critical targets – turning such weapons into “weapons of mass effectiveness.” Decision makers, military planners, and intelligence experts cannot ignore these possibilities and options. In fact, the same senior U.S. intelligence officers who were quoted earlier in regard to the risk in Iran’s nuclear programs have repeatedly warned in public that Iran has chemical and suspected biological weapon programs. There are however, no Israeli or U.S. official statements that go beyond this level of detail to provide a meaningful picture of how either country really perceives such threats, Iranian Efforts to Use a Survivable or “Mature” Nuclear Force If Iran does successfully go on to create dispersed or protected force large enough to pose a major threat even in a retaliatory strike or “ride out” mode, such a “mature” force would almost certainly take long enough to create so that it would have provoked the US, Iran’s Arab neighbors, and Israel to target Iran to the point where it would lose every major population center in a major exchange. This point is often lost in focusing solely on Iran’s options rather than a nuclear arms race that has already begun. It is not a point that either Israel or US planners have lost, and US and Iranian competition would be competition in nuclear forces just as Israel already targets Iran. Iran could, however, seek to exploit its leverage and the extent to which the US and its neighbors would make concession to reduce nuclear tension – a game of “nuclear chicken” that could range from prudent cautious Iranian demands to levels of tension that could lead to critical miscalculations by the nations involved. The Cold War consisted largely of a cautious version of the game, with the exception of the Cuban missile crisis. North Korea has been a cautious player. So have India and Pakistan with the exception of at least one point where Pakistan considered deploying active weapons. There are no guarantees, however, that cautious intentions succeed. The Napoleonic Wars, the Crimean War, WW I, and WW II all illustrate the extent to which caution can fail and sometimes do so suddenly and in totally unpredictable ways. Iran can also seek to leverage any nuclear forces against the conventional superiority of the US and its southern Gulf neighbors. In addition to US forces and installations in the Gulf, Iran could seek to use the risk of nuclear escalation to gain freedom from conventional attack if Iranian asymmetric forces threaten or attack the Southern Gulf states, move into Iraq, support a proxy war by force like the Hezbollah against Israel, or attack Gulf shipping and oil export capabilities. A mature Iranian nuclear force might even attempt to use a limited or demonstrative strike to reinforce the threat while being so limited in nature so as not to garner massive nuclear retaliation. The problem for Iran is that every potential mix of opponents could counter escalate in proportion – but again history scarcely consists of actions based on the wise use of game theory. Regardless of its means of delivery, the mere existence of an Iranian nuclear arsenal would also provide Iran with some ability to deter and neutralize the US conventional superiority in the region to a degree. Iran would consequently be enabled to pursue a more aggressive foreign 101