Cordesman/Wilner, Iran & The Gulf Military Balance
AHC 6/3/12
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Is There a Formal Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?................................................................................................... 97 Focusing On Proliferation Rather than the Force ............................................................................................................ 98 The Chemical and Biological Dimension ......................................................................................................................... 98 THE IMPACT OF IRANIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON US AND IRANIAN COMPETITION ................................................ 99
Iran’s Use of Nuclear Weapons Once It Possesses Them ................................................................... 99 The Threshold State and “Wars of Intimidation” ............................................................................................................ 99 The Transition Stage: Launch on Warning? Launch Under Attack? .............................................................................. 100 Iranian Efforts to Use a Survivable or “Mature” Nuclear Force .................................................................................... 101
US Responses to Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Efforts ......................................................................... 102 Missile Defense ................................................................................................................................. 102 “Extended Deterrence” ..................................................................................................................... 103 US Preventive Strike Options ............................................................................................................ 104 The Diplomacy and Politics of Preventive Strikes ......................................................................................................... 104 US Strike Options Against Iran ...................................................................................................................................... 105 Killing Hardened and Deeply Buried targets ................................................................................................................. 108
The Aftermath of A US Preventive Attack ........................................................................................ 110 Figure IV.62: Gulf Integrated Missile Defenses ................................................................................... 111 Figure IV.63: Key Assets for a US Strike on Iran .................................................................................. 113 Figure IV.64: Potential US Strike on Iran’s Key Known Nuclear Facilities ........................................... 115 Figure IV.65: NTI List of Suspect Nuclear, Missile, and Biological Facilities ........................................ 116 Possible US War Plans: Attacking, Delaying, Waiting Out ............................................................................................. 120 Figure IV.66: US Demonstrative, Coercive, or Deterrent Strikes ........................................................ 121 Figure IV.67: Limited US Attacks ......................................................................................................... 122 Figure IV.68: Major US Attacks on Iranian CBRN and Major Missile Targets ...................................... 123 Figure IV.69: Major US Attacks on Military and Civilian Targets ......................................................... 124 Figure IV.70: Delay and Then Strike .................................................................................................... 124 Figure IV.71: Ride Out Iranian Proliferation ........................................................................................ 125 THE IMPACT OF ISRAELI-IRANIAN NUCLEAR ARMS RACE ON US AND IRANIAN COMPETITION ................................. 127
Israel’s Fear of An “Existential Threat”............................................................................................. 127 The Unknowns in Assessing Israel’s Calculations of Its Ability to Use Missile Defense, “Extended Deterrence,” and Destroy Iran’s Population Using Nuclear Weapons ............................................. 129 The Unknowns in Assessing Israel’s Preventive Attack Options ....................................................... 130 The Ongoing Policy Debate Within Israel Regarding a Preemptive Strike on Iran ........................... 131 Israeli Public Opinion .................................................................................................................................................... 139 FigureIV.72: Israeli Public Opinion Regarding a Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities -1 ......................... 139 FigureIV.73: Israeli Public Opinion Regarding a Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities -2 ......................... 140 FigureIV.74: Israeli Public Opinion Regarding a Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities -3 ......................... 141 FigureIV.75: Israeli Public Opinion Regarding a Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities -4 ......................... 142 FigureIV.76: Israeli Public Opinion Regarding a Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities -5 ......................... 143 FigureIV.77: Israeli Public Opinion Regarding a Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities -6 ......................... 144
Potential Israeli Options for Striking Iran’s Nuclear Program .......................................................... 145 An Illustrative Air Strike ................................................................................................................................................ 147 The Limits to Israeli Capabilities .................................................................................................................................... 148 Dealing with The Iranian Response ............................................................................................................................... 151 FigureIV.78: Low-Yield Israeli Nuclear Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities ........................................... 154 Figure IV.79: Israeli Conventional Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities .................................................. 155 Figure IV.80: Prossible Israeli Strike Route ......................................................................................... 156 IMPLICATIONS FOR US POLICY ..................................................................................................................... 157
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