Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE HILTON HEAD AREA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS速
August 2011
Quick Facts
Despite some choppy waters in August, there have been noteworthy shifts on both sides of the closing table. Nationally, buyer activity is moving back in line with historical trends while sellers are making fewer concessions in order to sell their homes. Falling supply and improving absorption rates in many regions also suggest that market balance is realigning towards neutral. Locally, both sales and prices posted positive movement over August 2010, but do the rest of the numbers provide reason for optimism? New Listings in the Hilton Head region decreased 16.7 percent to 433. Pending Sales were up 17.2 percent to 245. Inventory levels shrank 20.8 percent to 2,992 units, a positive supply-side improvement. Prices moved higher. The Median Sales Price increased 19.2 percent to $255,000. Days on Market decreased 12.8 percent to 110 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 26.6 percent to 12.4 months. The economy bobbed along just this side of positive in August. Consumer confidence, which often affects housing demand, showed some slack even as personal income and spending both increased modestly. Low interest rates, declining supply and stabilizing prices are beacons of hope in the harbor, but the recovery still needs wind in its sails.
+ 21.9%
+ 19.2%
- 20.8%
Change in Closed Sales
Change in Median Sales Price
Change in Inventory
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days On Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
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All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS速 and South Carolina REALTORS速. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 1
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
New Listings 8-2008
8-2009
8-2010
8-2009
8-2010
8-2009
8-2010
8-2009
8-2010
8-2009
8-2010
8-2009
8-2010
8-2009
8-2010
8-2009
8-2010
8-2009
8-2010
8-2009
8-2010
3,712
- 13.3%
209
245
+ 17.2%
1,851
2,142
+ 15.7%
215
262
+ 21.9%
1,701
1,815
+ 6.7%
126
110
- 12.8%
131
140
+ 6.8%
$214,000
$255,000
+ 19.2%
$234,000
$228,000
- 2.6%
$300,997
$320,250
+ 6.4%
$350,276
$325,011
- 7.2%
93.4%
94.2%
+ 0.8%
94.1%
93.7%
- 0.4%
138
122
- 11.1%
128
135
+ 5.7%
3,777
2,992
- 20.8%
--
--
--
16.9
12.4
- 26.6%
--
--
--
8-2011
Months Supply of Homes for Sale 8-2008
4,281
8-2011
Inventory of Homes for Sale 8-2008
- 16.7%
8-2011
Housing Affordability Index 8-2008
433
8-2011
Percent of List Price Received 8-2008
520
8-2011
Average Sales Price 8-2008
+/–
8-2011
Median Sales Price 8-2008
YTD 2010 YTD 2011
8-2011
Days on Market Until Sale 8-2008
+/–
8-2011
Closed Sales 8-2008
8-2011
8-2011
Pending Sales 8-2008
8-2010
8-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
August
Year To Date 4,281
4,245 520
3,712
476 433
2009
+9.2%
-16.7%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
493
494
+0.2%
October
451
400
-11.3%
November
409
337
-17.6%
December
350
305
-12.9%
January
454
426
-6.2%
February
515
499
-3.1%
March
675
571
-15.4%
April
618
552
-10.7%
May
482
449
-6.8%
June
516
414
-19.8%
July
501
368
-26.5%
August
520
433
-16.7%
12-Month Avg
499
437
-12.3%
Month
+0.8%
-13.3%
2010
2011
Historical New Listing Activity 800
700
600
500
400
300
200 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month.
August
Year To Date 2,142
245 219
1,851
209 1,476
2009
-4.6%
+17.2%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
215
213
-0.9%
October
234
187
-20.1%
November
183
208
+13.7%
December
184
174
-5.4%
January
185
241
+30.3%
February
199
263
+32.2%
March
263
301
+14.4%
April
280
262
-6.4%
May
232
259
+11.6%
June
227
281
+23.8%
July
256
290
+13.3%
August
209
245
+17.2%
12-Month Avg
222
244
+9.6%
Month
+25.4%
+15.7%
2010
2011
Historical Pending Sales Activity 350
300
250
200
150
100
50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
August
Year To Date 262
204
2009
1,701
1,815
215 1,286
+5.4%
+21.9%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
193
221
+14.5%
October
231
162
-29.9%
November
214
182
-15.0%
December
218
220
+0.9%
January
172
183
+6.4%
February
156
176
+12.8%
March
213
226
+6.1%
April
252
270
+7.1%
May
212
261
+23.1%
June
261
215
-17.6%
July
220
222
+0.9%
August
215
262
+21.9%
12-Month Avg
213
217
+2.6%
Month
+32.3%
+6.7%
2010
2011
Historical Closed Sales Activity 300
250
200
150
100
50 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
August
Year To Date
151
147 131
126
140
110
2009
-16.9%
-12.8%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
162
121
-25.3%
October
153
144
-5.6%
November
157
141
-10.2%
December
138
136
-1.5%
January
131
133
+1.3%
February
145
156
+7.9%
March
140
143
+2.1%
April
128
152
+18.8%
May
113
133
+17.5%
June
141
158
+12.0%
July
126
140
+11.3%
August
126
110
-12.8%
12-Month Avg
147
148
+0.8%
Month
-11.0%
+6.8%
2010
2011
Historical Days on Market Until Sale 165 155 145 135 125 115 105 95 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
August
Year To Date
$260,000
$255,000
$266,000 $234,000
$214,000
2009
-17.7%
+19.2%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
$239,000
$218,393
-8.6%
October
$290,000
$240,000
-17.2%
November
$262,750
$228,750
-12.9%
December
$279,000
$250,000
-10.4%
January
$231,000
$250,000
+8.2%
February
$215,000
$188,200
-12.5%
March
$265,000
$210,000
-20.8%
April
$224,000
$270,000
+20.5%
May
$237,090
$250,000
+5.4%
June
$240,000
$233,000
-2.9%
July
$275,145
$213,750
-22.3%
August
$214,000
$255,000
+19.2%
12-Month Med
$247,500
$232,000
-6.3%
Month
$228,000
-12.0%
-2.6%
2010
2011
Historical Median Sales Price $450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
August
Year To Date
$467,169
$390,206 $350,276 $300,997
2009
$325,011
$320,250
- 35.6%
+ 6.4%
2010
2011
2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
$344,085
$347,477
+1.0%
October
$394,110
$321,857
-18.3%
November
$361,187
$327,176
-9.4%
December
$375,862
$310,895
-17.3%
January
$329,121
$303,936
-7.7%
February
$395,687
$291,285
-26.4%
March
$338,453
$328,279
-3.0%
April
$352,849
$346,612
-1.8%
May
$364,834
$339,727
-6.9%
June
$330,841
$353,623
+6.9%
July
$401,054
$298,544
-25.6%
August
$300,997
$320,250
+6.4%
12-Month Avg
$356,809
$325,703
-8.7%
Month
- 10.2%
- 7.2%
2010
2011
Historical Average Sales Price $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its last list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
August 93.9%
2009
Year To Date 93.4%
94.2%
-0.5%
+0.8%
2010
2011
94.1%
93.3%
2009
93.7%
+0.8%
-0.4%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
93.3%
93.4%
+0.1%
October
93.7%
94.1%
+0.5%
November
93.0%
92.4%
-0.7%
December
93.2%
93.2%
+0.0%
January
93.5%
92.8%
-0.8%
February
94.3%
93.8%
-0.5%
March
93.8%
93.2%
-0.7%
April
94.2%
93.8%
-0.5%
May
94.9%
93.5%
-1.4%
June
94.7%
94.3%
-0.5%
July
93.5%
93.6%
+0.1%
August
93.4%
94.2%
+0.8%
12-Month Avg
93.8%
93.5%
-0.3%
Historical Percent of List Price Received 96%
95%
94%
93%
92%
91%
90% 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
August
Year To Date 138 128
122 109
2009
135
107
+26.5% 2010
-11.1% 2011
+19.6% 2009
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
118
136
+14.7%
October
100
126
+26.1%
November
111
132
+19.2%
December
101
120
+18.9%
January
122
117
-4.1%
February
130
149
+14.6%
March
108
136
+26.1%
April
125
111
-11.7%
May
119
120
+1.0%
June
121
129
+7.0%
July
109
139
+26.8%
August
138
122
-11.1%
12-Month Avg
117
128
+10.6%
Month
2010
+5.7% 2011
Historical Housing Affordability Index 160
140
120
100
80
60 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
August 4,039
3,777 2,992
2009
-6.5%
-20.8%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
3,890
3,764
-3.2%
October
3,752
3,651
-2.7%
November
3,659
3,497
-4.4%
December
3,409
3,204
-6.0%
January
3,405
3,136
-7.9%
February
3,523
3,148
-10.6%
March
3,716
3,198
-13.9%
April
3,787
3,267
-13.7%
May
3,797
3,250
-14.4%
June
3,821
3,154
-17.5%
July
3,780
3,042
-19.5%
August
3,777
2,992
-20.8%
12-Month Avg
3,693
3,275
-11.2%
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
August 25.1 16.9 12.4
2009
-32.5%
-26.6%
2010
2011
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
September
23.6
16.9
-28.2%
October
22.2
16.4
-25.9%
November
20.5
16.0
-21.6%
December
18.5
14.5
-21.2%
January
17.8
14.3
-19.8%
February
18.1
14.0
-22.2%
March
18.6
13.9
-25.0%
April
18.3
14.0
-23.1%
May
17.7
14.1
-20.7%
June
17.7
13.5
-23.7%
July
17.3
12.8
-26.3%
August
16.9
12.4
-26.6%
12-Month Avg
18.9
14.4
-23.8%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Hilton Head Island. Provided by the Hilton Head Area Association of REALTORS® and South Carolina REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12