Signum Oil Analysis: o poder de prever

Page 1

6LJQXP 2LO $QDO\VLV R SRGHU GH SUHYHU

M 120

8PD DQ¼OLVH GH ÎOHRV 8VDGRV 0RELO 6LJQXP 2LO $QDOLV\V XPD FDSDFLGDGH RQOLQH TXH DMXGD D JXLDU R VHX QHJÎFLR 3RGH JHULU PHOKRU RV VHXV HTXLSDPHQWRV FRP VHUYLÂRV DQDOÈWLFRV HVSHFLDOL]DGRV TXH OKH DXPHQWDP D SURGXWLYLGDGH

IDFWR GH WHU DWLQJLGR R P¼[LPR GD VXD YLGD ÕWLO RX HQW¾R SRUTXH RV QÈYHLV GH FRQ WDPLQD¾R M¼ DWLQJLUDP XP SRQWR TXH UH TXHU D WURFD GR OXEULƬFDQWH SRU XPD QRYD FDUJD RX HQW¾R TXDQGR LVVR Ä RS¾R SUR

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CASE STUDY

FHGHU » UHVSHWLYD SXULƬFD¾R 4XDQGR VH $WUDYÄV GR QRVVR SURJUDPD DYDQ

IDOD GH FRQWDPLQDQWHV R REMHWLYR Ä GHWH

ÂDGR 6LJQXP 2LO $QDO\VLV ǟ HVSHFLIL

WDU D SUHVHQÂD GH HOHPHQWRV HVWUDQKRV DR

FDPHQWH DGDSWDGR SDUD PRQLWRUL]DU

HTXLSDPHQWR H SHUJXQWDU p2 TXH Ä TXH

LQGLFDGRUHV FUÈWLFRV QR ÎOHR XVDGR

V¾R" 'H RQGH Ä TXH YLHUDP SUÎSULR HTXLSD

FRP EDVH QDV HVSHFLILFDÂÐHV GRV SULQ

PHQWR JHUDGR GXUDQWH D RSHUD¾R LQWURGX

FLSDLV FRQVWUXWRUHV GH HTXLSDPHQWRV

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H SDGUÐHV LQWHUQDFLRQDLV ǟ SRGH

VR SUHYHQLU QRYD FRQWDPLQD¾R H[WHULRU RX

PRV SURSRUFLRQDU R FRQKHFLPHQWR

GHVJDVWH GR HTXLSDPHQWR" 2V FRQWDPL

QHFHVV¼ULR SDUD PHOKRU HQWHQGHU D

QDQWHV DWXDP FRPR XP FDWDOLVDGRU QR

FRQGL¾R GRV OXEULILFDQWHV H HTXLSD

FDVR GR GHVJDVWH (IHWLYDPHQWH HVWHV PD

PHQWRV GD HPSUHVD

WHULDLV GH GHVJDVWH DWXDP FRPR FDWDOLVD

(VWH SURJUDPD OÈGHU VXSRUWDGR SRU

GRUHV SDUD R GHVJDVWH GRV FRPSRQHQWHV

2 OXEULƬFDQWH Ä R VDQJXH GDV P¼TXL

XPD UHGH JOREDO GH SURƬVVLRQDLV H[SH

6H HVWH FLFOR Q¾R IRU TXHEUDGR R GHVJDVWH

QDV H GRV HTXLSDPHQWRV GDÈ D LPSRU

ULHQWHV GH OXEULƬFD¾R LQGXVWULDO 0RELO

DXPHQWD FDGD YH] PDLV UDSLGDPHQWH OH

W½QFLD YLWDO TXH UHSUHVHQWD D VXD DQ¼OL

SRGH DMXG¼ OR D DWLQJLU XP QÈYHO PDLV HOH

YDQGR D XPD DFHQWXDGD GHJUDGD¾R GRV

VH TXHU SDUD DYDOLDU R VHX HVWDGR TXHU

YDGR QD PDQXWHQ¾R GD VXD HPSUHVD $

UHVXOWDGRV GD DQ¼OLVH GLPLQXLQGR GUDV

SDUD DYDOLDU R HVWDGR GR HTXLSDPHQ

DQ¼OLVH GRV ÎOHRV XVDGRV Ä XPD ÕWLO SUH

WLFDPHQWH D FDSDFLGDGH SDUD R ÎOHR VH

WR WDQWR QR SUHVHQWH FRPR QR IXWX

GLWLYD H SURDWLYD IHUUDPHQWD TXH SRGH

PDQWHU HP VHUYLÂR

UR (IHWLYDPHQWH PXLWR FRPR DFRQ

DMXGDU D SUHYHQLU IDOKDV QRV HTXLSDPHQ

WHFH FRP R PÄGLFR TXH DYDOLD D QRVVD

WRV GHWHUPLQDU D RULJHP GDV FDXVDV GDV

VDÕGH DWUDYÄV GD DQ¼OLVH GR QRVVR VDQ

IDOKDV H DMXGDU D HQFRQWUDU SUREOHPDV

JXH RV HTXLSDPHQWRV FUÈWLFRV QHFHVVL

RSHUDFLRQDLV H FRQWDPLQDÂÐHV

WDP GH VHUHP PRQLWRUL]DGRV GD PHVPD

0RQLWRUL]DQGR RV PHWDLV GH GHVJDVWH SDUD XPD GHWH¾R DWHPSDGD GH DOWHUDÂÐHV DQRUPDLV QR HTXLSDPHQWR $ DQ¼OLVH GRV PHWDLV GH GHVJDVWH LQGLFD

IRUPD DWUDYÄV GD DQ¼OLVH GR VHX OXEULƬ

QRV HVSHFLƬFDPHQWH R HVWDGR GH VDÕGH

RX GRV ÎUJ¾RV GR HTXLSDPHQWR V¾R UH

%(1()¨&,26 '$ $1 /,6( '2 /8%5,),&$17(

YHODGRV DWUDYÄV GD FROKHLWD H DQ¼OLVH GH

ǟ 2WLPL]D¾R GR WHPSR GH YLGD GR

SULQFLSDO IXQ¾R GH XP OXEULƬFDQWH Ä VH

FDQWH 6LQWRPDV FUÈWLFRV GR OXEULƬFDQWH

DPRVWUDV GR OXEULƬFDQWH H FDVR Q¾R VH MDP FRUULJLGRV SRGHP GDU RULJHP » GH JUDGD¾R GR HTXLSDPHQWR H SHUGD GH SURGXWLYLGDGH &RQVHTXHQWHPHQWH R REMHWLYR GH XP SURJUDPD GH DQ¼OLVH GH

HTXLSDPHQWR ǟ $XPHQWR GRV LQWHUYDORV GH PXGDQ ÂD GR ÎOHR ǟ 5HGX¾R GRV WHPSRV GH SDUDJHP Q¾R SUHYLVWRV

ÎOHR XVDGR Ä YHULƬFDU D WHQGÅQFLD GDV

ǟ $XPHQWR GD VHJXUDQÂD GD RSHUD¾R

DOWHUDÂÐHV JUDGXDLV GDV FDUDWHUÈVWLFDV

ǟ %HQHIÈFLRV DPELHQWDLV

(VWD Ä D EDVH GH XPD PDQXWHQ¾R SUH

PRYLPHQWR UHODWLYR HQWUH HODV 1R HQ WDQWR Ä SUDWLFDPHQWH LPSRVVÈYHO TXH VH FRQVLJD PDQWHU XP pƬOPHqGH OXEULƬFDQ WH TXH SRVVLELOLWH D VHSDUD¾R SHUPD QHQWH GHVVDV PHVPDV VXSHUIÈFLHV 'HVWH PRGR R FRQWDFWR PHWDO PH HTXLSDPHQWRV GH DOWD WHFQRORJLD &RQ

WHULDLV GH GHVJDVWH GH PDQHLUD D SRGHU FRQWURODGD H DGHTXDGDPHQWH SODQHDGD

SDUDU GXDV VXSHUIÈFLHV TXH WHQKDP XP

WDO SRGH RFRUUHU PHVPR QRV PRGHUQRV

GR ƮXLGR GRV FRQWDPLQDQWHV H GRV PD PRV LQLFLDU XPD D¾R FRUUHWLYD GH IRUPD

GR QRVVR HTXLSDPHQWR &RPR VH VDEH D

$ $1 /,6( '26 ®/(26 86$'26 $8;,/,$ $ (48,3$ '( 0$187(1¢ 2 '( '8$6 )250$6

YÄP GHVWH PRGR WHU VHPSUH HP PHQWH TXH D OXEULƬFD¾R OLPLWH HVWDU¼ VHPSUH SUHVHQWH QR DUUDQTXH GRV HTXLSDPHQ WRV 1HVVD DOWXUD FUÈWLFD GD RSHUD¾R GD

GLWLYD TXH YLVD DVVHJXUDU D P¼[LPD GLV

P¼TXLQD H[LVWLU¼ VHPSUH DOJXP PDWHULDO

FHVVLGDGH GH XP SURJUDPD SDUD VLPSOL

'HWHUPLQDQGR D FRQGL¾R IÈVLFR TXÈPLFD GD FRQWDPLQD¾R GR ÎOHR

ƬFDU WRGR R SURFHVVR GH PRQLWRUL]D¾R

$ FDSDFLGDGH GR OXEULƬFDQWH VH PDQWHU

WLGDGH GR GHVLJQ GR HTXLSDPHQWR H GD

GD OXEULƬFD¾R QXQFD IRL W¾R JUDQGH

HP VHUYLÂR SRGH VHU FRQGLFLRQDGD SHOR

FRUUHWD OXEULƬFD¾R GR PHVPR

SRQLELOLGDGH GRV HTXLSDPHQWRV FRP R PHQRU FXVWR SRVVÈYHO 'HVWH PRGR D QH

GH GHVJDVWH QRUPDO RX Q¾R TXH VHU¼ JHUDGR GHSHQGHQGR D UHVSHWLYD TXDQ


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