News Optimism reigns in BEC Mid-Year Economic Briefing Dr. Victor Abola (left) and Dr. Bernardo Villegas
lasting until early June,” said Dr. Abola. “But still, weak economic fundamentals abroad are bringing stocks and bonds back to earth, while the domestic economy may recover from the recorded slowdown.” “On average, the economy should slow down to 2.4% from 3.9% in 2008,” he added.
2010 and beyond
“During the past two months, there has been a growing sense that the worst of the deep recession in the US that started more than 17 months ago is finally over. It seems that the financial tsunami is receding with no systemic bank failures occurring,” said renowned economist Dr. Bernardo Villegas during UA&P’s Business Economics Club 2009 Mid-Year Economic Briefing. “Economic analysts are heartened by the fact that although key economic indicators such as manufacturing output and employment are declining, they are declining at a slower rate.” Featuring economic analyses from experts Dr. Victor Abola, Dr. Ramon Quesada, Ms. Corazon Guidote, and Dr. Villegas, the briefing was held at the University in front of over 200 guests from the business sector. The theme, “2009—Year of the Ox: Ploughing through Peaks, Troughs, Recoveries and Relapses,” aptly described the ever-shifting economic state of the Philippine and the rest of the world as of late and, according to the speakers, in the year to follow.
“Extraordinary”
“We live in extraordinary times because of extraordinary mistakes,” said Ms. Guidote, vice president for investor relations of SM Investments Corp. She traced the source of the recession to “a reckless US monetary policy and the slack in corporate and financial regulation and supervision.” “Massive financial fraud flourished undetected for years,” she said. “Denial about its full extent prior to US elections could have worsened the crisis.” In spite of the crisis’ undeniable effect on the Philippines, however, the experts disagreed with projections that the country will experience zero or negative growth in 2009. “While the economy slowed to a 0.4% GDP growth in the first quarter, the financial markets were racing forward in an unusually strong rally Dr. Ramon Quesada
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UNIVERSITAS November 2009
Also remaining hopeful about the country’s recovery was Dr. Villegas who predicted that the Philippines would be one of the economies that would return to its pre-crisis growth rates in 2011-2014. “I am most optimistic about the so-called emerging markets led by China, India, and Brazil and followed by such other emerging economies like Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Korea, and Turkey,” he said. “I can say the same thing about the EU countries, led by France, in the recovery.” Dr. Villegas said that Japan, however, would have a more difficult decade ahead because of “its aging population, which is compounded by its general reluctance to allow immigrant workers to enter the country to help solve its labor shortage.” With regard to the US, “the most powerful economy in the world,” Dr. Villegas said “it will recover in 2010 but will have a relapse sometime between 2012 and 2014 as it grapples Ms. Corazon Guidote with the almost
“A permanent solution, however, depends more on change of moral values, business ethics, and increase in virtues...”
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insurmountable problem of significantly reducing its humongous double deficits, the current account, and fiscal deficits.” Dr. Quesada suggested that, rather than just focusing on re-aligning economic strategies, the world needs to get back in touch with its values. “Bailouts, increased capitalization, pump priming, government guarantees, fiscal and non-fiscal incentives, and private sector spending are necessary,” he said. “A permanent solution, however, depends more on change of moral values, business ethics, and increase in virtues such as prudence and temperance in materialism and consumption, and fidelity to God, family, and country.” Reminding the audience of the year and theme of the briefing, he added: “Let’s constantly reflect on the attributes of the ox—hardworking, loyal, persevering, strong, constant, and mission-oriented.” Mr. Carlo Cabrera Corporate Communications Office P H OTO S: M R . C A R LO C A B R E R A
IPE starts off Voters’ Education Program Anticipating the May 2010 elections, UA&P recently launched the Voters’ Education Program with a get-together with presidential aspirant Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro. Aiming to inform the public regarding the platforms of the presidential wannabes, the event was organized by the Institute of Political Economy, Office of Student Affairs, and the Asian Center for the Study of Democracy (a project of the CRC Foundation, Inc.). Secretary Teodoro presented his platform, at the crux of which is the reform of the current constitutional system, a system that he says was reintroduced in 1987 as a “remedy for a pre-existing situation”—the Marcos dictatorship. He believes that the constitution has run its course, so he now champions the institutionalization of a unicameral body where synergy and political cooperation can be fostered and developed. To differentiate his platform from those of the other candidates, Sec. Teodoro calls his a “platform of healing” as opposed to a “platform of vengeance.” Central to his beliefs is the idea of political healing, where candidates run on the principles of doing the country service as opposed to running with an agenda against other members of the political body.
Sec. Teodoro calls his a “platform of healing” as opposed to a “platform of vengeance.”
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According to Mr. Lloyd Bautista, IPE faculty member and officer in charge of the Voters’ Education Program, more presidential aspirants are due to visit UA&P soon. Victor Cruz SCM 5th Year