Fourth Quarter 2014
Exploring Africa? We Can Save You Time & Money Melissa T. Cook, CFA
African Investment Strategy Managing Director +1 845 363 4622 cook@afrsun.com
Countries Covered (to Date): • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Brazil in Africa Canada in Africa China in Africa Congo Republic Democratic Republic of Congo Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Kenya Nigeria Rwanda South Africa South Sudan Tanzania Turkey in Africa Uganda USA in Africa Zambia
We Can Make Your Job Easier: The Africa investment story is hot news, but getting good information on “the last frontier” isn’t easy. Why does Africa matter to your business? Which countries and sectors offer attractive returns? Our research provides hard-to-find information and insight based on site visits and conversations. We help you make better-informed decisions. We offer independent, nuanced views on market conditions, demand trends, and local dynamics.
Where to Start? Our ASP HeatMap illustrates where we think companies and investors can make money—today or in future years.
ASP HEATMAP: COUNTRIES WHERE BUSINESS CAN THRIVE
Source: African Sunrise Partners LLC.
IRC Headquarters: 420 Lexington Avenue, Suite 300, New York, NY 10170 Member FINRA and SIPC. Additional information on all of our market commentary is available on request See last page for analyst certification and important disclosures
Your Guide to Business in Africa
EXPERIENCE, CONTEXT, INSIGHT We’ve done the tough groundwork, so you don’t have to
We have extensive knowledge to share with clients. We go to Africa 4-6 times per year—over 30 trips since 2007. We meet with business owners, corporate managers, government decision-makers, and many other sources. We package all of this knowledge into highly readable, well-organized, and detailed research reports, which are available to clients via subscription or through an advisory arrangement. We write for busy, experienced investors and executives who want an independent point of view based on first-hand research.
Established markets and new-frontier coverage
We cover many countries and sectors. Kenya and Nigeria are our principal anchors, but we add new countries each year (13 so far). We’ve gone far out into the frontier—South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia—but we spend most of our time looking at larger, more investable markets. Sector coverage includes industrials/infrastructure, power, consumer, financial services, agriculture, and technology/communications.
Global perspective you need
Our work factors in global trends and experience. We have over 25 years of global research experience—including a front-row seat watching the emergence of new economies in Eastern Europe and China. We closely follow the activities of companies from China, Turkey, Brazil, and the Middle East in Africa.
HOW WE CAN HELP YOUR BUSINESS More than just the broad themes
We help globally sophisticated investors and executives make better-informed decisions. We quickly bring the conversation down from theoretical, broad-based generalities to a discussion of on-the-ground, direct business impact. Here are a few service options:
Subscribe: Our research library includes over 30 reports, which were written to have a long shelf life. We publish 8-10 new reports each year. Our 2014 price is $7,500 per quarter for up to four users, payable via institutional commission-sharing arrangements where appropriate. Smaller funds or Africa-based companies: contact us for special pricing options. Prices are going up in 2015 to reflect the expanded content available to clients.
Access: Our network includes over 5,000 contacts. Tap into our knowledge base or join one of our investor/corporate trips to the continent.
Open forum: We speak regularly on a variety of topics at seminars, conferences, and other gatherings. Bring us in for a fresh, candid perspective.
Matchmaking: Deal introduction on a retainer and success fee basis.
WHY DOES AFRICA'S TRANSFORMATION MATTER TO YOU? Our clients—ranging from long-time Africa experts to those new to the continent— realize that Africa is increasingly relevant to them.
Broad-based sector involvement
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Africa’s growth is obvious: Informal vendors and local private firms, Africa-based multinationals and North American, European, Indian, Brazilian, or Asian behemoths are already at work. Sectors on the move: consumer, machinery, electrical equipment, financial services, transportation, technology and communications, housing, hotels, education, health care, and entertainment. www.afrsun.com
African Sunrise Partners
Your Guide to Business in Africa
We appreciate your ever-evolving business needs
Institutional investors, pension fund managers, endowments, and foundations: Africa is increasingly material to earnings. More African firms are listing on public exchanges. Are your decisions based on independent, unbiased information about Africa? Can the companies you own answer questions about how they plan to thrive when competition comes from market entrants they’ve never battled before? How will they fill global order books with sales to customers they don’t know from a truly local base?
Corporate executives: Does your firm have a deliberate Africa strategy? Or are “accidental” decisions based on outdated information, a skewed perception of Africa's risk/reward profile, or priorities dictated by last year's issues? We bring an independent perspective to your business development, risk management and IR teams, CFO, CEO, and Board of Directors.
Law firms and consulting/advisory firms: Are your US or global clients asking for advice on how to get into Africa? Rather than use costly billable time to conduct research and bring your professionals up to speed, why not outsource it to us? Your library can use our database on a cost-effective basis.
WHY AFRICA? WHY NOW? Clients ask: Why is it different this time? Why will Africa’s promise finally be realized after decades of false starts? We see three key themes at work:
Governance up, corruption down
Think broadly about consumer-facing sectors
Infrastructure bottlenecks are being removed
1. Governance is improving, underpinning stability and opening new areas to investment. With 700 million mobile phone users on the continent and technology helping the spread of information, citizens and businesses can—and do—hold elected officials to account. Rule of law is effective in a rising number of markets. Electronic payment systems and computerization of government processes boost transparency and reduce corruption. 2. Consumers have money to spend, even at the lowest income levels. Agriculture sector reforms and investment are boosting aggregate spending power. Middle-class shoppers aspire to higher-quality goods and services, choosing brands perceived to deliver quality and value. 3. Funding is soaring for enabling infrastructure. Nigeria’s power sector privatization, Chinese funding of projects across the continent, and global bond issues to fund road works, ports, pipelines, and airports—all are examples of progress in this arena. Competition is already intense. Procurement decisions are being made by increasingly sophisticated executives.
ASP’S FOUNDER AND MANAGING DIRECTOR Melissa T. Cook, CFA is Founder and Managing Director of African Sunrise Partners. She has 25+ years’ experience in the global equity business:
African Sunrise Partners LLC
Global analyst: Media, entertainment, broadcasting, housing, capital goods, consumer products. Buy-side and sell-side research management.
CLSA/Crédit Agricole: Head of AsiaUSA Strategy—analyzed global impact of China’s rise. Lazard Asset Management: Head of Global Research.
Dartmouth College: A.B. degree in History; Stern School of Business at New York University: M.B.A. in Finance. CFA charterholder; FINRA Series 7, 16, 24, 63, 86, and 87 licenses. www.afrsun.com
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Your Guide to Business in Africa
AFRICAN SUNRISE PARTNERS PUBLICATION LIBRARY Depth and breadth of coverage of key Africa issues—based on our trips, meetings with business leaders, and talks with decisionmakers
Wide variety of subjects, sectors and countries
More titles from 20112012 available upon request
Our publications are written for a long shelf life—and to provide value for both non-Africa experts and old Africa hands. Report library available to subscribers via www.afrsun.com.
Insight: Our Nigerian Power Trip, September 11, 2014: Nigerian power sector update, agribusiness. Flash Update: Africa Takes Center Stage in Washington, August 18, 2014: US-Africa Business Summit Insight: Kenya: Rising Risks, Rising Opportunities, July 28, 2014: Kenya, Tanzania, power, agriculture Insight: Travels & Notes: Power, Turkey, Nigeria, July 28, 2014: Africa Energy Forum, Turkey in Africa In-Depth: DR Congo: A New Day, June 9, 2014: DR Congo & the Republic of Congo Insight: Nigerian Power: The Way Forward, April 17, 2014: Nigeria, power sector Flash Update: Why Africa Matters for Multinationals, March 20, 2014 Insight: Bolts & Volts: Industrials in Africa, January 30, 2014: Nigeria, Kenya, power & machinery Insight: Crops, Consumers, and Coins, January 29, 2014: Nigeria, agribusiness Insight: East Africa: Forging Regional Links, November 6, 2013: Kenya, Rwanda Insight: Nigeria: Powering Up, October 10, 2013: Nigeria’s energy sector, Ghana Flash Update: Business & Government: Transforming Africa, September 16, 2013 Flash Update: Brazil Into Africa, September 9, 2013: Brazilian investments in Africa Insight: NYFA: Putting Theory into Practice, September 9, 2013: Conference highlights One-on-One: Mark Eckstein, World Wildlife Fund, August 14, 2013: Sustainability Flash Update: China in Africa: Through Another Looking Glass, August 14, 2013 In-Depth: Ethiopia: It's Good To Be Early, July 29, 2013: Ethiopian opportunities Insight: Kenya: Ready for Liftoff, May 17, 2013: Kenya, South Sudan, Uganda Insight: Canada in Africa: Now or Never, April 15, 2013: Canada in Africa One-on-One: Michael Komesaroff, Urandaline Investments, Spring 2013 Insight: China and Africa: Two-Way Street, March 8, 2013: China and Africa In-Depth: Underpinning Nigeria’s Growth, January 14, 2013: Nigerian infrastructure Flash Update: Words at Ex-Im Meeting: Urgency for Africa, January 8, 2013 Insight: Winning in West Africa, December 10, 2012: Nigeria, Ghana Flash Update: Technology Leapfrog—Transforming Africa, November 26, 2012 Insight: Brother from Another Mother, October 22, 2012: Brazil in Africa One-on-One: Su Kahumbu, Fall 2012: Founder, Green Dreams and iCow Insight: First-Mover Advantage, August 6, 2012: Deep focus: South Sudan Insight: Solutions and Opportunities, July 10, 2012: US-Africa infrastructure One-on-One: Ricardo Hausmann, Summer 2012: Economic complexity Flash Update: Go to Africa, Invest and Prosper, June 21, 2012 Insight: Cement, Copper, and Seeds, June 12, 2012: Kenya, Zambia, ECX One-on-One: Eliza Griswold, Spring 2012: Author of The Tenth Parallel Insight: From Brazil to Nigeria, May 9, 2012: Brazil in Africa, Nigeria, agriculture Insight: Greenfield Growth, April 9, 2012: South Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya
ANALYST CERTIFICATION, IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
The author certifies that this market commentary accurately states her personal views about the securities mentioned, which are reflected in the substance of this publication. The author further certifies that no part of her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the views contained in this publication. African Sunrise Partners LLC (ASP) is an independent investment strategy company and is not a registered investment advisor and is not acting as a broker dealer under any federal or state securities laws. ASP is a member of IRC Securities’ Research Prime Securities platform. IRC Securities is a FINRA registered broker-dealer that is focused on supporting the independent research industry. Certain personnel of ASP (i.e. Research Analysts) are registered representatives of IRC Securities, a FINRA member firm registered as a broker-dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission and certain state securities regulators. As registered representatives and independent contractors of IRC Securities, such personnel may receive commissions paid to or shared with IRC Securities for transactions placed by ASP clients directly with IRC Securities or with securities firms that may share commissions with IRC Securities in accordance with applicable SEC and FINRA requirements. As registered representatives of IRC Securities, our analysts must follow IRC Securities’ Written Supervisory Procedures. Notable compliance policies include (1) prohibition of insider trading or the facilitation thereof, (2) maintaining client confidentiality, (3) archival of electronic communications, and (4) appropriate use of electronic communications, among other compliance related policies. Information and opinions in ASP market commentary are submitted solely for advisory and information purposes and intended for institutional clients to enhance their understanding of Africa and its impact on global markets. ASP market commentary does not offer specific investment ratings or recommendations on the subject companies. Furthermore, ASP market commentary is not intended to be used as the basis for any investment decision or to recommend any security. ASP market commentary is designed to enhance clients' understanding of those factors at issue and to augment investors' fundamental investment research, whether in-house, sell-side, or third-party. The information and analysis upon which ASP market commentary is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinion represents market conditions at the date of writing, and is subject to change without notice. ASP may or may not continue to comment on a specific security/sector subsequent to issuing market commentary. ASP does and seeks to do business with companies mentioned in its publications. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this market commentary. Investors should consider the material in this publication appropriate for use as only a single source among many consulted in making their investment decisions. Neither the publication/communication nor any portion hereof may be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of African Sunrise Partners LLC. Copyright 2014 by African Sunrise Partners LLC.
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