party. The Brazilian census includes data on municipal GDP growth, making possible the inclusion of GDP growth as a control. Complicating the use of this variable, municipal GDP as calculated by the census includes Bolsa payments. While it is not difficult to adjust municipal GDP to exclude Bolsa payments, the size of those payments relative to a municipal economy can sometimes be so large that the Bolsa acts as a general stimulus package within the community. Each variable related to municipal GDP will have to be evaluated in both Bolsa-inclusive and Bolsa-exclusive forms. Also important for the fortunes of the PT are its past showings. PT vote share in previous elections is likely to correlate strongly with PT vote share in the most recent election. By comparing municipalities in which the PT won for the first time with others in which the party had previously performed well, it will be possible to isolate the effects of past PT victories on current PT support.
Because the Bolsa program is in many ways insulated from political
interference, there is little reason to believe that benefits are being targeted at PT supporters. Almost everyone who is eligible for benefits receives them, leaving little room for politicians to build clientelistic networks around the program. Deputies do have the power to expand the program, as they did in 2006. It is, however, illegal for them to change the eligibility rules too close to an election.
Other factors that may affect support for the PT at the municipal
level include the party affiliation of the mayor and governor, and the degree of support for Lula. Some studies have found that the percentage of a city that self-identifies as Pentecostal Christian is significant for certain election results. Family income per capita, median income, and the Gini coefficient of income inequality (which the census bureau calculates for each municipality) may also have important effects, as might the percentage of the population that self-identifies as non-white, the median age, and the gender balance in a community. Large cultural differences separate Brazilians living in different regions; some results will likely be stronger in some regions than in others. 90
Excellence in Upper-Level Writing 2012