2023 State of Housing Report Slide Presentation

Page 1

1


2


Macroeconomy Overview


Population 2.63%

3000

2.5%

Population (,000)

1.93%

1.93%

1.98%

2.06%

2.04%

2%

1.74%

2000

1.5% 1500

1.21%

1%

1000

Population Growth

2500

0.5%

500

0

0% 2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2021

2022

4


Source of Population Growth Natural (15.1%)

Natural (16.3%)

International (8.5%) International (21.7%) Domestic (62.0%)

Domestic (76.4%)

2021-2022

2020-2021

5


Households 3.57%

1200

1000

3.5%

3.32% 2.87%

2.74%

3% 2.5%

2.29%

800

2%

1.70%

600

1.5%

1.35%

400

Growth Rate

Households (,000)

2.54%

1%

200

0.5% 0%

0 2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2021

2022

6


Household size

Household Size

2.65

2.6

2.55

2.5 2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2021

2022

year

7


Housing units 1200

3.5%

3.32%

3%

Housing Units (,000)

2.50%

800

2.22% 1.85%

600

1.69%

2.44%

2.07%

2.5% 2%

1.63%

1.5% 400

Growth Rate

1000

1%

200

0.5%

0

0% 2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2021

2022

8


Changes in Household and Housing Units Changes in Households and Housing Units (,000)

70

Households Increase Housing Units Increase

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2021

2022

9


Underbuilding • Underbuilding since the Great Recession: 30,000-40,000 units • Household Increase: 35,000-40,000 every year

10


Owner-Occupied Market Single-Family


09-2023

08-2023

07-2023

06-2023

05-2023

04-2023

03-2023

02-2023

01-2023

12-2022

11-2022

10-2022

09-2022

08-2022

07-2022

06-2022

05-2022

04-2022

700000

03-2022

02-2022

01-2022

House Prices Charlotte Region Median Price Charlotte Region Average Price Mecklenburg Median Price Mecklenburg Average Price

600000

500000

400000


Median House Price •

From Sept 2021-Sept 2022: 14.2%

From Sept 2022-Sept 2023: 5.3%

Growth rate to pre-COVID levels


09-2023

08-2023

07-2023

06-2023

05-2023

04-2023

03-2023

02-2023

01-2023

12-2022

11-2022

10-2022

09-2022

08-2022

07-2022

06-2022

05-2022

04-2022

03-2022

02-2022

01-2022

Median Days on the Market

Days on the Market

30

20

10

0


09-2023

08-2023

07-2023

06-2023

05-2023

04-2023

03-2023

02-2023

01-2023

12-2022

11-2022

10-2022

09-2022

08-2022

07-2022

06-2022

05-2022

04-2022

03-2022

02-2022

01-2022

Percent Sold above Listing Price

Sold above Listing Price

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%


>1000000

1000000

950000

900000

850000

800000

750000

700000

650000

600000

550000

500000

450000

400000

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

Frequency 3000

2000 60%

1000 40%

Cumulative %

House Price Distribution 100%

80%

20%

0

16


House price distribution • Under $150,000: 2.5% (4.8% in 2021) • Under $300,000: 22% (36% in 2021)

17


Price Growth Rate 2002-2010

2011-2021

2021-2023

10th Percentile

-1.54%

15.13%

8.65%

25th Percentile

2.60%

10.82%

7.52%

Median

1.75%

8.15%

8.33%

75th Percentile

3.00%

6.02%

10.44%

90th Percentile

6.23%

5.10%

10.27%

18


Income and Affordability Year

10th Percentile Price 25th Percentile Price

Median Price

2018

$45,138

$57,351

$75,917

2019

$46,778

$59,205

$75,668

2020

$50,617

$62,860

$79,014

2021

$57,180

$72,331

$90,181

2022

$83,815

$110,014

$138,582

2023

$93,187

$118,489

$152,218

19


Affordability • 55% cannot afford the 10th percentile price • 75% cannot afford the median price

20


Rental Market


2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

Effective Rent/Unit Effective Rent/Sq Foot

1400 1.4

1200 1.2

1000

800

Effective Rent/Sq Foot

1600

2002

2001

2000

Effective Rent/Unit

Apartment Rent 1.6

1

22


Single Family Rental 2500

Charlotte Region Median Rent Charlotte Region Average Rent Mecklenburg Median Rent Mecklenburg Average Rent

2000

1500

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

1000

year

23


Comparative Analysis


Population (Regional Competitors) 2.97%

3000 2.48% 2.15%

2.5%

2.04% 1.80%

2000

2% 1.5%

1.37%

1500 1%

0.79%

0.67%

1000

Growth Rate

Population (,000)

2500

3%

0.5%

500

0%

0

-0.5% Asheville

Charleston

Charlotte

Columbia

Greensboro

Raleigh

Richmond Spartanburg

25


Population (National Competitors) 2.92%

3%

2.06%

2.04%

4000

2% 1.5%

1.27%

1%

2000

0.60%

0.45%

0.30%

0.5%

0.22%

1000

-0.06%

0%

pa m Ta

to An n

Sa

cr a

m

rtl

en

ni

to

d an

o

-0.5% Po

as

is

N

ph em

M

ia

na

po

lis

ve r D

en

In d

C

in

ci

nn

at

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tte rlo

C

ha

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la

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0

hv ille

-0.41%

Sa

3000

2.5%

1.65%

At

Population (,000)

5000

2.21%

Growth Rate

6000

26


Median House Price (Regional Competitors) 25% 400

22.82%

22.60% 20.09%

19.66%

300

20%

17.49%

250

15.20%

15.09%

15%

200 12.32%

150

Growth Rate

Median House Price (,000)

350

10%

100 50

5%

0 Asheville

Charleston

Charlotte

Columbia

Greensboro

Raleigh

Richmond Spartanburg

27


Median House Price (National Competitors) 23.39%

25% 22.82%

500 20.87%

10%

300

14.86% 14.65% 14.71%

14.24%

15.26%

15%

13.75%

200

price_growth

18.07%

400

10% 100 5% m pa Ta

io

n

An

to n

to Sa

cr am en

d Sa

an Po rtl

as hv ille N

s ph i M em

lis po na

ia

D

en

ve r In d

C

in

ci

nn at i

tte ha rlo C

st in Au

la nt a

0 At

Median House Price (,000)

23.18%

22.21%

28


Median Multiple (Regional Competitors) 25.29%

5

25%

4.5

Price-Income Ratio

3.5

15.38%

3

13.09%

15% 12.77%

2.5 10%

2 1.5 1

5.14%

Growth Rate

10%

4

6.98%

6.04%

5% 2.33%

.5

0%

0 Asheville

Charleston

Charlotte

Columbia

Greensboro

Raleigh

Richmond

Spartanburg

29


Price-Income Ratio (National Competitors) 12.86% 13.09% 11.77% 11.91%

6

11.05%

10.49%

8.33%

7.78%

4

8%

7.61% 6.18%

3

6%

5.27%

2

4%

1

2% 0.07%

An

pa m

n

Ta

to ni

o Sa

cr

am

en t

an d Sa

rtl Po

as hv N

o

0% ille

s M

ap an di In

em

ol

ph i

is

ve r en D

ti na ci n in

C

C

ha rlo

tte

in st Au

At

la

nt a

0

Growth Rate

10%

5

Price-Income Ratio

12%

30


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