Bearing Drift Magazine - Oct 2011 by Bearing Drift Media

Volume 2, Number 3, October 2011

Obenshain envisions a

CONSERVATIVE majority

Virginia is

RELEVANT

McDonnell and Sabato chime in

2012 what to look

for in a president

OUR STATE SENATE PRIMER a review of the most competitive races

2 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

INSIDE

Volume 2, Number 3, October 2011

J.R. Hoeft Publisher

jim.hoeft@bearingdrift.com

Melissa Kenney Advertising ads@bearingdrift.com

Contributors to this issue: Dr. Quentin Kidd Brian Schoeneman Ronald D. Utt Norman Leahy Ken Falkenstein

Guest contributor: Senator Mark Obenshain

Cover photo: Zumbro Photography Additional photos courtesy: Taber Andrew Bain, Mark Obenshain, Brian Schoeneman, thisisbossi, Sam Felder, Mr. T in DC, Gage Skidmore, Steve Jurvetson

4 6 11 13 23 27 31 33 37

From the Publisher’s Desk

Building a Conservative Governing Majority in Virginia by Senator Mark Obenshain Stasis The likely effect of redistricting on the 2011 general assembly elections by Dr. Quentin Kidd Senate election analysis A district level breakdown of this year’s state senate races On the Campaign Trail by Brian Schoeneman The Dulles rail financial disaster continues by Ronald D. Utt 2012 What to look for in a president by Norman Leahy Virginia’s renewed national prominence The “Mother of Presidents” regains her relevance by J.R. Hoeft Obama vs. McDonnell A study in contrast by Ken Falkenstein OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 3

A note from the publisher...

e’ve all known for quite some time that this upcoming general election on Nov. 8, 2011 is important. All 100 members of the House of Delegates and 40 members of the state Senate are up for election. There is an opportunity for Republicans to gain a majority in the state Senate (currently narrowly held by the Democrats) so that Governor Bob McDonnell’s probusiness legislative agenda can finally be passed and “Bob’s for Jobs” can ultimately be realized. There is, however, another reason why this election looms large. Hypothetically speaking, let’s say a Democrat becomes governor in 2013. Because the next state Senate election is not until 2015, if they retain the majority this election, Democrats would have the mansion and the state Senate in this scenario. Didn’t we just thankfully end this misery in 2009? And it’s the last situation conservatives want to return to. Under Democratic control of the Senate and a Democratic governor, we could return to times where: The governor proposes the largest tax increase in Virginia history to balance the budget – and the Senate concurs. Instead of seeking government efficiency through audits and austerity, government continues to grow beyond its means. Instead of being a right-to-work, pro-business, free market-friendly state, we become California. No thank you! Thus, in this issue of the magazine, we go to great pains to profile the challenger races where we think the GOP has its best chance of winning and gaining the majority in the Senate. But you’ll notice that many of the races tend to favor the Democrat. The GOP has an up-hill 4 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

climb, despite their all-in attempt to challenge for the majority. Senator Mark Obenshain of Harrisonburg is our featured writer. He details the importance of this campaign. Dr. Quentin Kidd, political scientist from Christopher Newport University, gives his expert analysis on the results of our decennial ritual called “redistricting.” He thinks redistricting changed very little. Brian Schoeneman, Bearing Drift contributor and a candidate for Virginia House of Delegates, takes us through the paces of a campaign in Northern Virginia. And, Ron Utt, a transportation expert with the Heritage Foundation, provides an exclusive on Dulles light rail. Another example of where a liberal dream has turned into the taxpayers’ nightmare. While the 2011 campaign is important, and it is our primary focus, 2012 is right around the corner too. We take a look at Virginia’s role in 2012’s campaign– and Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and Gov. Bob McDonnell help explain Virginia’s importance. Then, Norm Leahy and Ken Falkenstein look at the qualities necessary for presidential leadership. There is no shortage of material for this issue. As a final point, I know many of you receive a complimentary copy of the magazine – or some of you are reading an e-issue - but please know that this great material still costs a lot of money to produce. First, we hope you will support our sponsors, whose financial commitment help make publishing a magazine a reality. Even more, if you have a product, service or cause that you want to promote, then

contact us today to secure the best placement in our next issue. But we also hope that you, if you are so inclined, will consider making a personal investment in Bearing Drift Magazine. Included in the magazine is an envelope where you can contribute $500, $250, $50 or even just $20. Your contribution will be used to pay for necessary things like printing and postage. But by contributing, you will also ensure that you will continue to receive the only magazine that’s written by Virginia conservatives for Virginia conservatives. While this is a turning point for our government, it is also a turning point for us. With your support, we can continue to bring the best political information to conservatives in the state. All the best,

J.R. Hoeft Publisher

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Building a

CONSERVATIVE governing majority in Virginia

lash back to February, to the final meeting of the Senate Privileges and Elections Committee for the year. The committee is chaired by nineteen year incumbent Democrat Janet Howell. The docket in front of each member of the Committee was obviously incomplete; eight House bills – most of which passed the House with bipartisan majorities, but were opposed by the Democratic leadership – had been left off the list deliberately. That Tuesday afternoon meeting of the Senate Committee on Privileges and Elections was not the first time that bills distasteful to the Democratic leadership conveniently disappeared from the agenda, nor would it be the last, but it was notable in one respect: the unabashed and unapologetic “explanation” from Senator Janet Howell. When asked whether the bills would be taken up, she brusquely stated that they would not. When I made a motion to have them added to the agenda, she quickly ruled it out of order. And when I inquired into the grounds on which she based her ruling, she paused, then offered a curt “I believe it’s out of order.” That, unfortunately, is the way the game is played in the

by Senator Mark Obenshain Democrat-controlled Senate of Virginia, where a motion is out of order if not to the liking of a senior Democrat, and where committees become graveyards of bills not even granted the most perfunctory consideration. In another committee, the Senate Committee on Education and Health, conservative bills typically received a vote, invariably defeated on a 10-5 party-line vote. Here is yet another symptom of Democratic control run amok – a committee stacked 2:1 in favor of a narrow 22-18 Democratic majority. The Courts Committee is 10-5 as well, and Commerce & Labor, Finance, and Privileges & Elections all come in at 9-6. In all, 92 committee slots are held by Democrats compared to only 60 for Republicans. The proportionality rule leadership is supposed to uphold would require most committees to be 8-7, and none more than 9-6. Democrats unilaterally organized the chamber as if they had 26 members, not 22. To the Democratic majority, rules don’t matter – only (liberal) results. As a consequence, the Senate is the chamber where good bills go to die. It’s also the chamber that stands in the way of the reforms

we need to stay ahead of a still shaky economy. Already, one left-leaning coalition is laying the groundwork for new taxes. With a Republican Governor and House of Delegates, that’s a non-starter, but a Democratic Senate can drag its feet on the structural reforms we need for our Commonwealth to thrive. Still more, a Democratic Senate may yet reemerge as a barrier to securing property rights in Virginia. For years, Democrats in the Senate maneuvered to block eminent domain reform, but this past session, when it became clear that the first year resolution would pass, Democrats fell all over themselves getting behind it. They even obtained a revote to allow more Democrats have an epiphany on property rights. But for the proposed amendment to go to the voters, it has to pass the General Assembly a second time next year. Their stunning mass conversion notwithstanding, I fully expect Democrats to move to block it – if they have the votes. It’s critical, then, that we deny them those votes. Two years into the McDonnell administration, conservatives can look back on some significant victories, but for each success there are several notable losses OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 7

– chiefly because the Democratcontrolled Senate is standing in the way of meaningful reform.

It’s time to overhaul how we do business in Richmond, and Democrats are planting their feet We succeeded in securing an audit of the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) that revealed a stunning $1.4 billion sitting unused in dormant accounts and unclaimed federal matching funds. But anyone who has seen VDOT in action – or is it VDOT inaction? – knows that identifying unused resources is at best half the battle. We need to overhaul the agency, a proposal going nowhere fast in a Democratic Senate. For years, we have accepted poorly maintained roads and inadequate infrastructure. Funding has been an issue – something Governor McDonnell and the General Assembly sought to address this year by authorizing a new bond issue for transportation projects – but just as important is how VDOT is spending the tax dollars it receives. Over the years, I’ve seen countless examples of wasteful spending and ill-conceived projects. It’s time to overhaul the Department, but Democrats don’t want to hear it. 8 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

No, the issue is broader than that: it’s time to overhaul how we do business in Richmond, and Democrats are planting their feet. With a government in Washington that knows no limits and is intent on foisting liberal policies on Virginia – the latest is an end-run on Virginia’s right to work laws in the Metro expansion project – we need bold reformers, not liberal yes-men. A few months ago, Democrats were crowing about their perceived opportunity to expand their slim majority in the Senate. In a memorable admission, Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw said, “If I lose a few seats as a result of redistricting, and I’m in the majority, I’m not doing a very good job.” Now it’s not for me to comment on how good of a job Dick Saslaw is doing for his caucus, but redistricting looks to be backfiring on my Democratic colleagues. No one is talking about Democrats picking up seats anymore – even though the Democrats were in the driver’s seat on creating the new Senate lines. The only question is whether Republicans can take the majority. Republicans are more energized and fielding far more challengers – and they’re good challengers, quality candidates who will make effective Senators. Democrats, meanwhile, struggled to recruit candidates for many races, and the Democratic brand is so sullied that they’re fielding ill-disguised “independents” against Republican incumbents in some races. Still, we cannot take anything for granted. Republicans need to pick up three seats to take the majority, and that won’t be easy.

But we have the right message – and the right candidates. Let me tell you about a few of them. The only Senate race pitting two incumbents against each other, District 20 is shaping up to be quite a battleground. Bill Stanley is putting everything on the line here, moving out of a gerrymandered district he would have shared with Senator Ralph Smith to mount a serious challenge to Democratic incumbent Roscoe Reynolds in a district that already knows him well. Stanley has already represented some 40% of them. Reynolds voted against a common sense proposal to bring state employee pension plans out of the 1970s and into the present day – and that’s going to cost us. He opposed an effort to force tax and fee hike proposals to receive a standalone vote, preferring to allow them to be buried in the budget. It’s unsurprising, then, that he voted for both tax hikes proposed this past session. He has voted to raise the gas tax, the sales tax, the occupancy tax, and the car tax. He backed an internet sales tax that would have driven many businesses out of Virginia. But he’s certainly been okay with new spending, supporting hundreds of millions of dollars in new benefits and programs – even in-state tuition for illegal immigrants! That makes for quite a contrast with the steadfast conservatism evident in Senator Stanley’s record. Elsewhere, Ben Loyola is taking on Ralph Northam, a Democratic incumbent who would like you to think he’s a moderate. His voting record tells a different story. Northam also voted to raise the gas tax. He voted against

a constitutional amendment to prevent raids on the Transportation Trust Fund. He helped block a Right to Work amendment to Virginia’s Constitution. Against preventing taxpayer dollars from being spent on elective abortions. Notwithstanding the fact that he’s a physician, he even voted against challenging ObamaCare. And on eminent domain, Northam has had it every which way. He voted repeatedly to kill the amendment in committee, then, when its passage was assured, experienced an epiphany. Suddenly, after years of fervent opposition, Northam finally and belatedly supported an amendment prohibiting the government from seizing your property for economic development purposes or anything other than true public use. Fortunately, Northam’s challenger, Ben Loyola, is a man of unwavering principles, and a candidate who understands what it takes to get our economy into high gear. Ben’s inspiring personal story begins when his father, a Cuban naval officer, fled to America with his

young family when Castro seized power. Now a successful entrepreneur, Loyola started a fast-growing, award-winning defense engineering firm. Building on his experience as a fighter pilot and decorated thirty year veteran of the U.S. Navy and Naval Reserves, Ben created scores of jobs. He is part of a great group of conservative challengers across Virginia who brings real world experience to bear on job creation and economic growth. Bryce Reeves is another such candidate. A successful small businessman with a strong knowledge of the world of finance, Reeves is a former Army Ranger and also served as a detective in Prince William County’s narcotics bureau. His life story is one of business acumen and public service – a perfect combination for the Senate. Reeves is challenging Edd Houck, who chairs the black hole known as the Senate Committee on Education and Health. Under Houck’s chairmanship, this uber-partisan committee has become the graveyard for more bills than one can count. Houck presides over the spiking of school choice

bills, no matter how modest. He sees to the defeat of prolife measures, no matter how limited. He is the go-to Senator for the teacher’s union – but not, unfortunately, for students and their parents. Houck is way too liberal for the largely rural district he represents, and Bryce Reeves is just the candidate to take him on. In Reeves, we have an opportunity to replace Houck’s big government mentality with reform-oriented limited government conservatism. In Roanoke, Virginia Senator John Edwards (the other Senator John Edwards) has staked out a reputation as a fair-minded, business friendly moderate. Unfortunately, his rhetoric doesn’t match reality. Virginia FREE, a nonpartisan pro-business organization, ranked him as the third most anti-business senator last year worse than Janet Howell, Dick Saslaw, or Yvonne Miller, to name just three. And little wonder: has the

Senator from Roanoke ever met a tax hike he didn’t like or a regulation he didn’t support? He pushes a gas tax increase year after year, and has supported every major tax increase proposed during his time in office. He voted against E-Verify, the castle doctrine, and the transportation single lockbox. He voted against making it illegal to coerce a woman into having an abortion and in favor of taxpayer funding of abortion. He helped kill a bill requiring magistrates to determine the citizenship status of arrestees, and opposed the eminent domain reform amendment in committee before flip-flopping on the Senate floor when passage became a fait accompli. I would say that he votes more like a D.C. liberal than a Southwest Virginia “moderate,” but that’s unfair to D.C. liberals. Edwards, though, has drawn an incredibly strong challenger in Delegate Dave Nutter. Where John Edwards scores an anemic 6% on the Family Foundation’s

Dog Gone Right

Wade Brumett

10 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

report card, Dave Nutter came in at 95%. Where John Edwards votes as a tax-and-spend liberal, Dave Nutter works for limited and accountable government. I’ve met with voters across the Commonwealth, stumping for our great slate of Republican candidates, and let me tell you: it’s Dave Nutter’s message, not John Edwards’, that resonates with the voters. And finally, at a time when we desperately need a return to constitutional principles, Miller Baker is a breath of fresh air – a man who not only believes in upholding our founding document, but knows it through and through. An expert in constitutional law and a successful litigator, Baker has taken part in defining cases before the Supreme Court, successfully defending Wisconsin Right to Life’s free speech rights and working to keep federal powers in check. A member of the Reagan Justice Department by the age of 24 and counsel to a Republican member

of the Judiciary Committee during the confirmation of Clarence Thomas, Miller Baker is a man who doesn’t shy away from a fight – and, more than that, he wins those fights. Baker is running against George Barker, a liberal Democrat and one of the architects of the Senate redistricting gerrymander. Wouldn’t it be ironic if Barker’s overreach left him out of a job? The year 2011 holds great promise for Virginia’s conservatives. In my travels across Virginia, I have stood alongside exceptional candidates and met with countless enthusiastic voters. We have the energy, we have the momentum, and right now, we have the financial edge – but it all comes down to one Tuesday in November. Liberals across the country are watching the elections in Virginia with trepidation. On November 8, let’s show them that conservatives are energized. And next year, we can show them how conservatives govern.

S T A S I S

the likely effect of redistricting on the 2011 general assembly elections by Dr. Quentin Kidd

ere’s a question I’ve been getting a lot from people lately: Will we see the effects of redistricting in this fall’s General Assembly elections? The answer I’ve been giving is, yes, but not in a good way. From a legal and constitutional perspective, redistricting - that once-a-decade ritual where the General Assembly adjust the electoral lines to reflect population changes that have occurred during the prior ten years – is not designed to favor or harm any political party. When drawing new lines states must consider the contiguity of new districts, ensure equal population across all districts, adhere to the federal Voting Rights Act, try to keep communities of interest together, and draw districts that are as compact as possible. There are no requirements to protect parties or incumbent office holders. However, because redistricting is handled through the normal legislative process it necessarily becomes political. Without a doubt,

when the General Assembly was controlled by Democrats, redistricting favored Democrats; when the General Assembly was controlled by Republicans, redistricting favored Republicans. This year, however, the General Assembly was split. Republicans controlled the House and Democrats controlled the Senate. Both parties realized that any redistricting bill that hurt the other too badly wouldn’t pass in both chambers, and that any stalemate would send redistricting either to the federal courts or the Obama Justice Department. Neither party wanted to risk those ends so they made an agreement: Democrats would control redistricting of the Senate and Republicans would control redistricting of the House. Neither side would hurt the other too terribly badly. The initial bill that passed both the House and Senate was vetoed by Governor McDonnell because it removed a whole senate seat from Virginia Beach (and displaced an incumbent Republican). McDonnell thought that went too far, so the

Democrats put the seat back and the Governor signed off. The net effect of this process â&#x20AC;&#x201C; literally a party protection process as much as anything else â&#x20AC;&#x201C; is not necessarily good for democracy. Democratic elections confer formal legitimacy on those elected to form the government, create laws, and enforce those laws. However, if electoral competition is stymied via gerrymandered districts then the very legitimacy that the election is supposed to confer is weakened. As we head into the final stretch of the first General Assembly election cycle postredistricting, we can see the ill-effects of the process. For the House of Delegates, only 27 of the 100 seats have a contest between candidates representing the two major political parties. In the state Senate, 24 of the 40 seats have a contest between candidates representing the two major political parties. It seems pretty safe to say that we can expect little from the House elections in terms of real debate or competition. The Senate is going to be as close as we get. Of those 24 contested Senate seats, 16 are defended by incumbent Democrats and 4 are defended by incumbent Republicans. The remaining 4 seats are open contests, two that historically favor Republicans and two that historically favor Democrats. The net effect of all of this is likely to be stasis. And while stasis does not necessarily represent a problem in elections, it does when we got there through gerrymandered maps. 12 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

Building Trust in Virginia Politics

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very four years, the entire General Assembly is up for election, which is the case this year. However, what makes this particular election so intriguing is the State Senate and it’s narrow Democratic majority (22-18). If it were as simple as the Republicans merely “picking up” two seats, then the likelihood of the GOP regaining the majority would be pretty good in the current electoral climate. However, this is the first election following redistricting, and Senate Democrats have not made it easy on Republicans. In fact, Republicans were redistricted outright of two seats, creating two open seats. And, a Republican senator (Sen. Bill Stanley) was drawn into a longtime Democratic senator’s district (Sen. Roscoe Reynolds). But Republicans have risen to the challenge. While only three of the GOP’s 16 incumbents seeking reelection face a Democrat opponent (and one of those three is Stanley), 16 of 20 Democratic incumbents are facing GOP opponents. If Republicans successfully regain the majority, the story will be that strong candidate recruitment was able to overcome partisan redistricting. In what follows, the Bearing Drift team of contributors takes a look at the districts where there is likely to be the most competitive and, perhaps, the most interesting campaigns.

SENATE ELECTION ANALYSIS Contested: Major party candidates (24 elections) Contested: Independent / Third Party (2 elections) Uncontested (14 elections)

While we have labeled the outlook for some of these races as “leans Democratic”, it hardly means that seat is unwinnable for the GOP. All it means is that the Republican faces some obstacles based on various campaign criteria, such as incumbency, demographics, fundraising and organization. But those obstacles certainly can be overcome.

2011 SENATE STATUS Likely Republican

Likely Democrat

Challenged Republican seat

Challenged Democrat seat Incumbent Dem. vs. Incumbent Rep.

Open seats

OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 13

John Miller (D) vs. Mickey Chohany (R) Outlook: Toss Up

Ralph Northam (D) vs. Ben Loyola (R) Outlook: Toss Up

The 1st District is the one that got away. In 2007, long-time activist Tricia Stall upset incumbent Sen. Marty Williams in a primary in a year when Republicans were getting pasted over transportation authorities, taxes, and abuser fees. The district was heavily Republican, but was won, barely, by Democrat John Miller Mickey Chohany who walked the “conservative line” throughout the campaign. Miller never campaigned on raising taxes specifically, saying only he supported a “statewide solution.” He actually campaigned on a 20% real estate tax cut. But that proposal, which sounded good on the trail, has never found its way into bill form during Miller’s term. But the tax increases sure did! Miller’s SB684, introduced during the 2010 legislative session,

Ben Loyola has lived the American Dream. Sure, lots of politicians say similar things, but Loyola is the real deal. His family fled Communist Cuba when he was a year old as Fidel Castro seized power. His father had served in the Cuban Navy, and was sentenced to death for his refusal to bow to Castro’s rule, but his father escaped, and the family was reunited in America. Loyola attended the U.S. Naval Academy and eventually attained the rank of Captain. He flew A-6 Intruders out of Virginia’s Oceana Naval Air Station and was homeported at Norfolk Naval Station. He flew in anti-terrorists missions, notably bringing to justice the 14 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

would have raised all sorts of fuel taxes, so many, that even his fellow Democrats allowed it to die in the Finance Committee. Other catchall tax hike measures (like Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw’s onerous transportation financing bill, SB6009) also enjoyed Miller’s strong support. It would’ve been nice if First District voters knew what sort of tax hiker they were getting before the 2007 election. But now they’ve had four years to see Miller for what he really is. Republican Mickey Chohany offers a different vision. Instead of John Miller’s quests for higher taxes, Chohany wants to reduce them and attract jobs. He wants to lighten the burden on small businesses so they can hire more people and create more economic activity. It’s a nice contrast from the current Senator. Chohany offers a strong conservative message including energy independence policies, quality-focused education and strong stances on illegal immigration and innocent human

Palestine Liberation Front terrorists who hijacked the Achille Lauro. The terrorists killed wheelchair-bound Leon Klinghoffer and were given asylum and safe passage aboard a plane to Egypt. President Ronald Reagan ordered them intercepted, and that’s exactly what Loyola and his fellow aviators did (though an Italian court later released them, only to turn around and sentence the group’s leader, Abu Abbas, to five life sentences in absentia. Abbas was later captured by U.S. forces in Iraq). Loyola also started an engineering firm, Loyola Enterprises, in Hampton Roads, which was named one of “Virginia’s Fantastic 50” small businesses by the Virginia Chamber

life. Mickey Chohany has the resume to back up his stances. With over 25 years’ experience as an owner of multiple businesses and a record of leadership serving on the Williamsburg City Council, Chohany has a broad constituency throughout the district. But redistricting was kind to John Miller. Eliminating conservative precincts in Poquoson, Hampton and York County made the district much more favorable to him. But doing so meant extending the district all the way up to Williamsburg and opening the door to Chohany’s challenge. On paper, it looks like the new lines help Democrats. With a former Williamsburg City Councilman running, that might not be the case. For Chohany to win, he needs to run-up big margins in his Williamsburg-area base, while convincing Newport News Republicans to turn out. If that happens, it will be a long night for John Miller. Right now, all the metrics are in place for Republicans regaining this seat in 2011.

of Commerce. He’s a job creator, a combat veteran, and a strong fiscal conservative. H i s opponent, Democratic incumbent Sen. Ralph Northam, is the guy who beat Republican Sen. Nick Rerras in Ben Loyola 2007 in one of the worst cycles for Republicans we’ve ever seen. The Northam/Rerras contest continued on page 15

continued from page 14

sometimes got nasty. In one bizarre episode, Northam seized on comments Rerras made regarding the mentally ill to change that Rerras would view brain injured or mentally ill Iraq War veterans as demon-possessed. In the current campaign, Northam has put on the same pseudoconservative mask he wore in 2007. But his Senate record tells otherwise. He’s been a reliable vote for higher sales and gas taxes. He racks up perfect ratings from the National Abortion Rights Action League. And he cast one of the few NO votes on a bill to protect Virginians from Obamacare. Pretty left-wing for a district that was won by Bob McDonnell and Scott Rigell. Most Democrats aren’t rushing to line up with Barack Obama this year, but Northam has happily done so. In a recent Daily Press column, Northam argued that his vote against the “Protection from Obamacare” bill was the right one. Even his own caucus has reason to question Northam’s actions. In 2009, rumors swirled around Capitol Square that Northam was upset over a procedural matter and was going to switch parties. This would have resulted in a 20-20 partisan split in the Senate, depriving the Democrats of their last bastion of power in Richmond. It took the intervention of then-Governor (and Democratic National Committee chairman) Tim Kaine to talk Northam down and back into the Democratic fold. Contrast that whipsaw pettiness with Ben Loyola’s campaign. Instead of bowing to more federal mandates, Loyola touts free market choices that create jobs and competition. He believes in balanced budgets, lower taxes and private sector dynamism. In short: Loyola is in-sync with the district. Northam is at odds even with his friends. The 6th district is virtually all coastline, including the Eastern Shore, Mathews county, and parts of Norfolk and Virginia Beach. Loyola’s educational background, marine engineering, is perfectly suited for the district.

Shawn Mitchell (D) vs. Dick Black (R) Outlook: Leans Republican

Two veterans and small business owners are vying for the open 13th District Senate seat. Despite superficial similarities in their resumes, Dick Black and Shawn Mitchell have widely different approaches to the challenges facing Northern Virginia and their district. Mitchell’s discussion of the issues is long on catch phrases and short on specifics. While we are glad that he supports smaller public school class sizes, reducing traffic and incentivizing job creation, we are disappointed that he provides us with no clue as to how he would use the position of state senator to accomplish those goals. Mitchell has attempted to cast Black as out-of-touch with the district: “We know from Dick Black’s eight years in Richmond that he is more interested in causing controversy than solving problems and will put his social agenda ahead of fixing the economy and creating jobs in Loudoun and Prince William Counties,” Mitchell wrote in a press release regarding Black’s victory. Black, on the other hand, has not only position statements, but a strong pro-business, pro-economic growth record as a member of the House of Delegates. While other candidates have talked about reducing congestion, Black has been part of the solution by helping bring overpasses to the Rt. 28 corridor. Black, who moved from Sterling to suburban Leesburg to run for the seat, lives and breathes consistent conservative principles. Black has also been aggressively confronting the challenge of campaigning in an area where most voters do

not remember his tenure in the House of Delegates. Should the GOP re-capture the state Senate with his help, Northern Virginians will find Black to be a strong advocate for regional transportation projects, rightto-work laws and the reasonable tax rates which help keep the local economy strong. The newly-created 13th State Senate district in Northern Virginia is targeted by the Republican Party of Virginia and important to the GOP’s plan to re-take the state S e n a t e . It is the relocated district Dick Black of former Sen. Fred Quayle, a Hampton Roads Republican, and was the site of one of the most expensive Republican state Senate primaries this year. South and West of Black’s old house district, the new 13th stretches across Western Loudoun and Northern Prince William counties. The suburban and semi-rural communities of the district largely voted for John McCain in 2008 and Bob McDonnell in 2009. After a grueling primary, Black entered the general election season with slightly more cash on hand ($22,779) than Mitchell ($17,636). While both candidates are raising money aggressively, Black has the advantages of a favorable district and historical relationships with Republican donors, while Democrat dollars will be focused on defending their vulnerable incumbents from challengers. OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 15

Edd Houck (D) vs. Bryce Reeves (R) Outlook: Leans Democratic

Roscoe Reynolds (D) vs. Bill Stanley (R) vs. Jeff Evans (I)

Edd Houck has long been a thorn in the side of the Republicanleaning 17th State Senate. While Republicans consistently carry Spotsylvania County by some 60% or more in national and state elections, H o u c k seemingly defies the odds -- and against some of the most credible candidates Republicans could have Bryce Reeves p o s s i b l y fielded at the time. This year, the old 17th District gerrymandered itself into something of a bastard child between a garden variety pitchfork and a gremlin, stretching to reach vital constituencies that would either rob Republicans of key parts of Spotsylvania, or be just balanced enough where Houck’s “fake right, run left” voting record would still squeak by with the one-two combination punch of the “October surprise” of nasty opposition research (and a willing and compliant Free Lance-Star

editorial staff to echo the attack) followed by the NRA endorsement shortly thereafter. This year’s opposition on paper looks like a sure fire winner. Bryce Reeves is a State Farm agent with a military service record who has run for public office once before, losing handily to former sheriffturned-supervisor T.C. Waddy, who is an institution unto himself. This time, Reeves began early, opening a Victory office in the heart of Spotsylvania and courting early support from RPV as well as Governor McDonnell’s office. That’s where the good news stops. Reeves to date has had a difficult time raising and keeping money. Houck meanwhile has benefited hugely from his previous employment with Fredericksburg City Public Schools, but also working for the last few years with the regional powerhouse MediCorp while serving on the Health and Education Committee for the Virginia Senate. As Houck has called in his favors, his longtime established name ID has proven to be a massive hill to climb. Reeves has been pulling it together as of late. The key to success

has always been to unite the ability to raise enough money to trump the good ol’ boy network between public education, the health care industry, and the Free Lance-Star while uniting the evangelical and Catholic churches and driving them out to the polls on election day with solid reasons to vote against Houck -- not just riding the wave of antiincumbent hostility. There is little evidence that Houck’s tried and true “October surprise” will work in an environment tired of negative campaigning and “gotcha politics” in the post-macaca era. Worse still for Houck, the NRA endorsement just doesn’t mean as much as it used to, and a former Army Ranger will be able to carry the values of true 2nd Amendment voters with much more gravitas than a bureaucrat. Reeves will have to put together a serious fundraising effort in the last few weeks of the campaign to pay for the air campaign that will be necessary to drown out the twin megaphones of Houck’s warchest and the Free Lance-Star’s ink by the barrel and paper by the ton. It’s possible... and it’s uphill running, but for an Army Ranger, that’s nothing Reeves hasn’t seen before and tackled in style.

Outlook: Leans Republican

Roscoe Reynolds has represented Southside Virginia’s 20th Senate District since 1997. During his tenure in the state Senate, the Southside’s once-vibrant manufacturing economy has hemorrhaged jobs to the point that the region now suffers from some of the Commonwealth’s highest unemployment rates. Through it all, Sen. Reynolds has coasted to reelection year after year. 2011 could be a different story. Bill Stanley, the dynamic Franklin County attorney and chairman of the 5th Congressional District Republican Committee, was handily elected to fill Robert Hurt’s unexpired term after 16 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

Rep. Hurt’s resignation from the state Senate last winter. Although his time in the Senate has been brief, Stanley has distinguished himself as a rising star in the GOP and one of the Senate’s most unapologetic conservative voices. For these reasons, Sen. Stanley was expected to be a target of Senate Democrats when they unveiled their redistricting plan. While his district was reconfigured, it remained strongly Republican and, unlike his colleagues Sens. Newman and Smith, Stanley did not find another senator living within his district’s boundaries. Ultimately, Sen. Ralph Smith expressed an interest in moving into the 19th District to

avoid a divisive primary with Sen. Steve Newman so Sen. Stanley agreed to move to another property that he already owned in Franklin County (just a few miles from his previous residence) situated in Bill Stanley the adjacent 20th Senate District. continued on page 17

continued from page 16

In a September interview with The Roanoke Times, Sen. Reynolds eschews the liberal label that has been applied to him: “In past campaigns, opponents have misrepresented me as a liberal and the people I represent know that I am not…. I try to be middle of the road and I think my voting record shows that that’s about where I am….” (That might come as a surprise to both the Virginia Trial Lawyers’ Association and the Virginia State AFL-CIO, both of whom have donated to the Reynolds campaign during this cycle.) Sen. Reynolds is partially correct in that he occasionally breaks with the leadership of his party, as he did in 2010 when he voted with the GOP on the Healthcare Freedom Act. While his occasional votes are good, Bill Stanley contends that the 20th District is suffering from some chronic problems that have only been exacerbated by Sen. Reynolds’ party. During the fourteen years that Roscoe Reynolds has represented the 20th District, state spending has increased 73 percent; the district’s unemployment numbers are even worse: Carroll, Henry and Patrick Counties have all seen unemployment rates increase during Sen. Reynolds’ term— today all three localities have unemployment rates at or above the national average). The unemployment rate in the City of Martinsville has increased almost one percent point for every year Sen. Reynolds has been in the state Senate. “This cannot stand. …It’s time to bring economic prosperity back to Southside,” Stanley declares. Stanley pledges to use conservative ideas, like eliminating unnecessary regulations and improving the quality of Virginia’s schools, to solve the 20th District’s problems by making the Southside competitive again. Standing between Sen. Stanley and the one-on-one contest he wants with Sen. Reynolds is

Jeff Evans, the 2007 Republican nominee. After withdrawing from the Republican race in June, Evans ultimately filed to run for the 20th District seat as an independent. Evans was expected to complicate Sen. Stanley’s battle plan by dividing the already limited conservative vote in the district; getting “outside the margin of Evans,” as one district political observer noted, is the key to unseating Roscoe Reynolds. This task got significantly easier in August while as a guest on a local talk radio show, Evans, a retired Virginia State Policeman, admitted to mistreating suspects in his custody before becoming a Christian. Bearing Drift’s Shaun Kenney rightly noted that district voters will likely be less forgiving when going to the polls on Election Day. Sen. Stanley was the first candidate in the race to get campaign ads on the air (in August), but he is he is trailing in the money race. Gov. McDonnell is strongly supportive of Bill Stanley; his Opportunity Virginia PAC has contributed over $93,000 to the Stanley campaign. The governor’s endorsement could be an important boost in a district that gave McDonnell nearly 60 percent of its votes in 2009, even as redistricting made the 20th District less Republican than it was before. Make no mistake: this seat will not be an easy pick-up for the GOP. The 20th District contains the strongly Democrat city of Martinsville so if Bill Stanley is to unseat Roscoe Reynolds, he must win the race in the district’s rural areas. If Sen. Stanley can tie his opponent to the unpopular national Democrats—especially by contrasting the successes of the McDonnell-Stanley record in Richmond to the failures of the Obama-Pelosi-Reid record in Washington—and can turnout rural voters from the district’s rural communities, Bill Stanley’s star will only continue to rise in Virginia politics.

21 John Edwards (D) st

vs. Dave Nutter (R) Outlook: Toss Up John Edwards, an attorney and retired Marine captain, has represented the Roanoke-anchored 21st District since the first term of the Clinton Administration (1996). Over the years, Sen. Edwards’ liberalism has annoyed area conservatives, but efforts to oust him have proven futile, as he has faced opposition only once and even when running unopposed, Sen. Edwards consistently garners more than 21,000 votes. On paper, redistricting only Dave Nutter made the 21st District slightly more Republican than it has been for the past decade (VPAP rates the new 21st District as 0.2 percent more Republican than the old 21st District was). In fact, the district was considered so reliably Democratic that some prominent local Republicans are rumored to have declined the opportunity to challenge Sen. Edwards. The daunting task of unseating Sen. Edwards was not enough to dissuade the Roanoke Tea Party from fielding insurance agent Tripp Godsey as a candidate for the Republican nomination. In mid-June, Del. Dave Nutter of Christiansburg, decided to vacate his safe seat in the House of Delegates to challenge Edwards. After a hotly contested primary, Del. Nutter bested Godsey. The primary results reflected what everyone familiar with the district suspected: Nutter can clean up in the New River Valley (NRV) portion of the district— which he has represented in the House for almost a decade—but needs to increase his name recognition in the Roanoke area. An analysis of the district by Roanoke Times concluded that, despite the 21st District’s reputation as a Roanoke-based district, the City of Roanoke accounts for only 44 percent of the district’s votes—ironically continued on page 18 OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 17

continued from page 17

the exact same percentage as the NRV (including the liberal college town of Blacksburg). The remaining 22 percent comes from reliably Republican Roanoke County. While these numbers may look good for Del. Nutter on paper, the challenge for him will be two-fold: turn out a sufficient number of voters from his conservative base in the NRV to match Sen. Edwards’ Roanoke City base almost vote-for-vote and increase his name recognition outside of the NRV. Dave Nutter’s work in the economic development office at Virginia Tech makes his a familiar face to Roanoke area business leaders, but he will need more votes than those if he hopes to unseat a 15year incumbent. Del. Nutter also needs to win the trust of Tea Partiers—especially in the leadership of Roanoke’s influential Tea Party—after a hard-fought primary. When John Edwards formally announced his reelection bid in late August, he stated that his campaign would focus on creating jobs by promoting investments in education and transportation. He was also sharply critical of Gov. McDonnell and House Republicans for cutting the state budget. Given Del. Nutter’s background in economic development, expect sparks to fly on the campaign trail as these candidates debate the best way to promote job growth in both the 21 st District and the Commonwealth. In this off off-year election, victory will likely hinge upon which candidate has the most dedicated support base. Expect this race to be issue-oriented and sharp. The safe bet is Leans Democrat, but it could become Toss Up or Leans Republican before Election Day. 18 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

Tom Garrett (R) vs. Bert Dotson (D) Outlook: Toss Up Bert Dotson has $150K in the bank. Tom Garrett has less than $9K in the bank. ‘Nuff said? Let’s make matters worse: Garrett has yet to perform the “victory lap” after a bruising fiveway primary to win the GOP nod. In a district where Garrett hails from the wrong side of the James River (north) while his opponent is in the beating heart of Lynchburg, every vote and every contact -- especially from those who were formerly opponents -- should be precious. What’s more, the district consists of a 25% African-American demographic that has been told that Tea Party candidates want to run roughshod over just about everything and everyone. Garrett proudly carried the Tea Party banner, and it will be difficult to make the case otherwise with this important community. Still, it’s not entirely bleak for Garrett. The district still leans Republican by 5-7 points with Garrett not favored to win the primary, with even this publication dismissing the possibility of Garrett’s eventual razor thin victory in the August primary. Garrett was outspent nearly 4 to 1 in the primary by his opponents and still carried the day. Moreover, while the Tea Party may not be to everyone’s political taste, there is no question the movement is tasting victory -- picking up steam and training new recruits on the march. As the Tea Party matures, so does their political sophistication, even as their numbers bleed off due to infighting. Still, Dodson has all the advantages right now -- save one. Dodson has money, name ID through a successful extermination business, no major media markets

to surprise at the last minute, and a split and fractured GOP postprimary. What Dodson does lack is professional campaign management. Mom-and-pop might be e n o u g h to carry a campaign with a 15-to1 spending advantage, but should Garrett pull off the same wild card campaign Tom Garrett as he did in August, the political edge may very well go to the best staffed candidate. While Dodson is a newcomer to politics, Garrett is an experienced campaigner not just under his own banner as Louisa Commonwealth’s Attorney, but as a former field staffer with Bob McDonnell for Attorney General. Yet miracles are called this precisely because of their rarity, and not because of their everyday occurrence. Garrett will have to have several aces in the hole in order to combat a well-financed effort to take an open seat in the beating heart of Virginia’s 5th Congressional District. DPVA will most certainly be pouring resources into what may be one bright light in what will otherwise be a very dismal night for Democrats in Virginia, if not to compliment Democrat Connie Brennan’s strong candidacy for the 59th HOD. Dodson may not run the best campaign money can buy, but it’ll be enough to beat Garrett handily unless there are serious and substantial changes in the campaign dynamic south of the James.

Barbara Favola (D) vs. Caren Merrick (R) Outlook: Leans Democratic

Linda “Toddy” Puller (D) vs. Jeff Frederick (R) Outlook: Leans Republican

Few Senate districts were more gerrymandered by the Senate Democratic Caucus than the 31st Senate District. Arguably designed to protect Janet Howell by moving strong Republican candidate Caren Merrick out of the 32nd Senate district, the new lines create one of the most schizophrenic Caren Merrick districts in Virginia. The eastern portion of the seat encompasses most of Arlington, running west along the Potomac River, picking up the affluent Great Falls and Langley areas in Fairfax County and terminating in eastern Loudoun County. Each community has radically different core issues and that means that candidates running there need to have at least three tailored messages in order to appeal to all three areas. What’s worse, Arlington has long been antagonistic to Fairfax and Loudoun, particularly in areas like transportation, where Arlington benefits from the METRO system and an urban community, while Fairfax and Loudoun are primarily commuter oriented. In any other district, Republican Caren Merrick would be a shoo-in for the seat. She’s dynamic, hard

Jeff Frederick

If there is any district in the Commonwealth that can be termed a bell weather this year, it is this one. Looking at the redrawn 36th district makes one wonder exactly what Janet Howell

working, and has been able to raise considerable funds, thanks in part to her success in business and also to the fact that she didn’t have a primary opponent. She’s managed to raise almost $250,000 for the seat and still has half of it on-hand for the sprint to the finish. And she also got a welcome present in the form of Democrat Barbara Favola, a fourteen year veteran of Arlington’s County Board, who managed to win a brutal Democratic primary against progressive challenger Jaime Areizaga-Soto, but nearly bankrupted her campaign in the process. Favola has outraised Merrick, raising nearly $300,000 for the race, but only has $14,000 left following the primary. Given that Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw has made winning this race a priority – going so far as to endorse Favola in the primary and give her almost $20,000 in contributions – this is one of the Democrats’ top races and we can expect significant help to be dropped on Favola in the coming weeks. According to the Associated Press, “Republican Caren Merrick began September with $125,464 in the bank to Favola’s $14,659,” which was an excellent early advantage. But Favola will have plenty raised by the end of the campaign to make a difference. Favola has been beset with a number of issues, and she made a variety of gaffes during the primary.

was thinking when Senate Democrats created this district for incumbent Toddy Puller as the changes to it only increased its Democratic tilt by 0.7%. However, that does not tell the full story as this is based upon an average of 2008 and 2009 election results. Given the anomaly of the 2008 presidential election in some of these precincts where President Obama carried traditional GOP strongholds that turned around and gave Governor

Most prominent were charges of a pay-to-play scandal involving towing interests in Arlington that had business before the Arlington County Board. She was attacked viciously by the netroots on the left, but in the end she ended up winning the primary in a landslide 65-35%. Regardless, the biggest issue in the district is purely demographics. This is a Democratic majority seat, if only because the vast majority of the population in the district comes from Arlington, which makes up 58% of the district, Fairfax coming in at 29.5% and Loudoun at 12.5%. Merrick’s base of support is focused on Fairfax, Favola’s on Arlington. And given the knee-jerk propensity of Arlington to vote for the Democrat no matter how bad they may be – this is the heart of Jim Moran’s 8th District, and Arlington went nearly 72% for Barack Obama in 2008 – the numbers just don’t work out well for Merrick. Democrat Sen. Mary Margaret Whipple represented this district since 1996 before resigning this year. This is a battleground race that Republicans will be competitive in. Favola seems to be trying to run a purely get-out-the-vote campaign at this point, and that may be enough for her to win in November. While Merrick is still strong and Favola has a tendency to make unforced errors, the outlook in the 31st is leans Democratic.

McDonnell 25-point margins of victory the following year, that 0.7% increase for Democrats is likely more of a decrease in this off- off-year election where state senate is the top of the ticket. Overall, the district went from being a McCain 36% / Gilmore 28% district in 2008 to a McDonnell 49% / Bolling 46% / Cuccinelli 46% district in 2009. Any state senate district where Ken continued on page 20 OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 19

continued from page 19

Cuccinelli takes 46% can hardly be viewed as a safe Democrat seat. Furthermore, the new district added some very heavily Republican precincts in Prince William County that traditionally have strong turnout no matter the election year. Montclair, Pattie, Washington-Reid and Ashland are four monster Republican precincts that have been added to the district while Democratic sections of Dale City have been removed. Plus for the first time, the majority jurisdiction within the 36th is Prince William County with 53%. Fairfax has fallen to second with 41% and Stafford County makes up the final 6%. As soon as these lines were unveiled, more than one person looked at them and noted that the heart of this district looked an awful lot like the old 52nd House District. One of the people who saw that right away is former Del. Jeff Frederick who represented the 52nd for three terms in Richmond before opting against running for reelection in 2009. (The irony here is Frederick moved within the old 52nd, but out of the 36th and redistricting drew him back in.) With Frederick as the Republican nominee, the path to victory for Puller becomes harder, not easier. Jeff has either been very competitive in or won outright several of the blue precincts within the 36th during his three general election victories (including the difficult years for Republicans of 2007 and 2005 when he was the only Republican to carry his district, running ahead of both Bolling and McDonnell that year.) Contrary to the statewide caricature of him, time and again Frederick has demonstrated his crossover appeal with the voters in his district and cemented those relationships with second-tonone constituent services and his door-to-door campaigning. Go to a Frederick event and you will probably see cars with Obama bumper stickers on them. 20 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

Meanwhile, Puller was unopposed in 2007 and thus has not been politically visible to a large segment of the district since her last contested race in 2003. Furthermore, the population in these areas has exploded since Puller last actively campaigned eight years ago and even some of those homes have seen two or three owners come and go in that time given the transient nature of the area with lots of military personnel and contractors. Due to a stroke that Puller suffered several years ago, she is unable to match Frederick in the personal door-to-door campaigning. Instead she is relying heavily upon direct mail pieces touting her time as a teacher and her deceased father-in-law and late estranged husband’s service in the Marine Corps. While her mailers are good, Frederick’s are even better. He has consistently had the very best direct mail pieces of any candidate due to the brilliant work of Brent Barksdale at Jamestown Associates. Barksdale has done every single one of Jeff’s races since his first one back in 2003 when he defeated Del. Jack Rollison in the GOP primary. What we have in the 36th is essentially a battle between two incumbents – Puller, who many voters do not know she even represents them, and Frederick, who many voters still think he is their delegate on account of the invisibility of his successor. The slight Democratic edge in this district is partially offset by geography with Puller being the Fairfax candidate and Frederick the Prince William candidate. Frederick’s door-to-door campaigning and fundraising ability added to that makes this an even match. Voters turning out to reelect Corey Stewart as Prince William County Board Chairman and a strong Republican challenger for the Woodbridge Supervisor seat may provide the extra shot Frederick can use to get across the finish line.

37 Dave Marsden (D) th

vs. Jason Flanary (R)

Outlook: Leans Democratic Another gerrymandered beauty, the 37th State Senate seat winds like a snake through central Fairfax County, going from Chantilly in the west through Centreville, Springfield, Burke and resting just inside the beltway in Annandale. The race pits former Republican Dave Marsden, who served as a delegate from the 41st District against newcomer Jason Flanary. Marsden won the seat in a special election against former Fairfax County School Board member Steve Hunt in 2010. The seat was Jason Flanary up thanks to Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s election in 2009. The Marsden/Hunt race was close, coming down to a handful of votes at the end of a bruising cycle that left most activists and party stalwarts exhausted. Despite Hunt’s name recognition, he faced a tough primary from Flanary, a Marine, former Capitol Hill staffer and small business owner who also served as a lobbyist for the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce and a staffer for Delegate Tim Hugo in Richmond. Thanks to Flanary’s impressive ground game, where he knocked on over seven thousand doors, he pulled off the win against Hunt. Hunt wasn’t able to raise significant amounts of money and his door knocking efforts were dwarfed by Flanary’s efforts. Hunt’s loss to Marsden in the special was also an albatross around Hunt’s neck that he couldn’t recover from. Marsden took advantage of the Republican primary and has been engaged in an aggressive door-knocking campaign as well, and he has managed to raise almost a quarter of a million dollars for his reelection. Flanary raised almost $100,000 and was able to put aside some for the general, but Marsden has a significant cash advantage. Fortunately, this race has been steadily increasing in profile thanks to Flanary’s door knocking strategy, and his campaign crossed over the 10,000 doors knocked figure last week. It’s expected that the Governor and the continued on page 21

continued from page 20

Senate Caucus will be working hard to win this seat. At the same time, Marsden can expect serious help from the Democrats, who helped him the most

by reducing the number of Republicans in the district through redistricting. While the old 37th was carried by Bob McDonnell with almost 57%, the new 37th was carried by McDonnell with slightly more than 53% of the vote. This makes the district a toss-up, and

that favors the incumbent, especially given the shortness of the cycle. Overall, our outlook is that this seat leans Democratic, but if there are any major upsets in Northern Virginia this year, this seat has that potential written all over it.

Phil Puckett (D) vs. Adam Light (R) Outlook: Leans Republican

As issues like Cap-and-Trade have revealed the national Democratic Party to be unsympathetic to the coal industry and, by extension, the livelihood of thousands of southwestern Virginians, the region has developed into fertile ground for Republican pick-ups, as evidenced Adam Light by the recent victories of Del. Will Morefield and Rep. Morgan Griffith, as well as the continued popularity of Del. Annie B. Crockett-Starke in southwestern Virginia. The region’s recent electoral trajectory appears to make 13-year incumbent Sen. Phil Puckett vulnerable this November. Sen. Puckett, who has not faced opposition since 1998, now faces a strong challenge from Republican Adam Light, a Tazewell County businessman and prominent local Tea Party activist. To say that Light has maintained a busy schedule since announcing his intentions to run in February would be an understatement as he has crisscrossed the district attending everything from the Russell County

Coal Festival and the National Wild Turkey Federation banquet to Republican unit committee meetings and Tea Party rallies. Light has been joined on the trail by Republican luminaries like Rep. Morgan Griffith and Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling. Light has also earned the support of The Presidential Coalition, a Washingtonbased affiliate of the conservative non-profit Citizens United, which made a $5,000 donation to his campaign in June—one of only five Virginia Senate candidates it has supported during the 2011 cycle. Adam Light’s campaign also enjoys the support of Gov. Bob McDonnell’s Opportunity Virginia PAC. That having been said, Sen. Puckett will be difficult to beat. A fixture of far southwestern Virginia politics for more than a decade, and despite mounting a losing bid for his party’s nomination for Lieutenant Governor in 2005 and announcing plans to seek a leadership post in the next General Assembly, Puckett is perceived as a moderately conservative senator— the kind of old-line Democrat that has (historically) thrived in the region. This image is aided by his record as a crucial swing vote on several of the Republican caucus’ highest legislative priorities over the past two years, including the Health Care Freedom Act and SB

OTHE R RAC ES TO WATCH

924. Another vote for a Republicanbacked eminent domain reform bill earned him glowing praise from the Virginia Tea Party Patriots Federation. Redistricting has also made the 38th modestly more favorable to the incumbent than it was before. Both campaigns have been honing their attacks throughout the summer, with Adam Light linking Sen. Puckett to President Obama and the EPA following the announcement that AEP will close one coal-burning power plant in Giles County and partially close another in Russell County (in the 38th District) in the wake of new EPA regulations on coal-burning plants. (Sen. Puckett must be feeling the heat as he put a pro-coal industry “petition” on his website, urging signees to “do your part” by providing his office with their contact information.) For his part, Sen. Puckett is attempting to draw contrasts with his opponent by suggesting that he is a man-ofthe-people citizen-legislator whereas Adam Light is the candidate of “Richmond special-interests,” supported by large infusions of money from outside the district. A strong candidate who is outhustling his opponent has made a race of an election that ordinarily would have been a slam dunk for the incumbent.

We’ve looked at the races we think will be most competitive through Election Day, but writing this in late September, we certainly don’t have all the answers. By the time you read this, there are several other races

that could really heat up and bring surprises: 29th: For the past four years, rumors have surrounded whether long-time incumbent Senator Chuck Colgan was going to retire. The continued on page 22 OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 21

continued from page 21

85-year-old president pro tempore has been serving since 1976. However, Colgan has decided to try for one more term. Instead of getting a free pass, though, Republicans have turned to Navy reservist and small business owner, Tom Gordy, to run in this district that consists of mostly Prince William County. Gordy, who managed Nick Rerras’ upset victory over then Senate Majority Leader Stanley Walker in 1999, has been aggressively campaigning. Despite Colgan’s early money advantage, Gordy could see a late surge of support. Gordy certainly has the ability to make this the “upset” of 2011. 33rd: Patricia Phillips is giving it another go against Senator Mark Herring. The district, several miles outside the beltway and goes from Leesburg to Dulles airport, has been made slightly more Democratic by redistricting. Herring also has a sizable warchest. But Phillips message could resonate much more strongly with voters after seeing how Democrats, and Herring, have been governing in Richmond. 39th: Constitutional attorney Miller Baker is challenging one22 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

term incumbent George Barker. Barker was named the “biggest enemy” of Virginia businesses by Virginia FREE (a pro-business organization) while supporting the interests of big labor (the AFLCIO) 100% of the time. Baker’s campaign has focused on job creation, touting Virginia as a right-to-work state and consistent rankings as one of the top business states in the country. According to Baker’s web site, his goal “is to reduce the Virginia personal income tax and corporate income tax as much as possible, in order to make Virginia a magnet for businesses and families fleeing the failed policies of high tax states such as California.” 61 percent of the district is in Fairfax County and the rest is proportioned between Prince William County and the city of Alexandria. Transportation is a key issue in this northern Virginia district and Baker minces no words about it, saying more roads need to be built. He reminds voters a commonsense bill to prioritize transportation spending in Northern Virginia according to the amount of traffic congestion to be relieved by the spending was defeated by the Democraticallycontrolled Senate.

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A P I M G A N C in Northern Virginia

by Brian Schoeneman “So what do you want?” The voice growled at me from a screened porch a few feet away from the front door I had just knocked on. A handwritten sheet of paper on the front door told the UPS and FedEx delivery folks to put packages at the screen door, punctuated with a smiley face. I walked over to where the voice came from, and found myself in front of a burly, shirtless man about my height – well over six feet - a Budweiser can nearly hidden in massive hand. I started in with my usual speech, telling him my name and that I was running for House of Delegates. “Which party are you?” he asked. I told him I was a Republican. Wrong answer. He shook his head and said “You’re wasting your time here, I’m a union man.” I responded that was good, because I was a “union man,” too. He looked at me askance, snorted and replied, “No, you’re not.” I laughed. Just another day campaigning. We talked a little more and I left his house hoping I might have moved him from the D to the undecided column. We’ll see on election day. One of the things I’ve come to enjoy most about

the campaign trail is how unpredictable it is. Each door is different, and armed only with some literature, a pad of yellow post-it notes with a hand-scribbled note, and a list of names and voting histories, I’ve been working my way methodically through the 37th House District here in the heart of Northern Virginia, Fairfax County. Barking and biting dogs, escaping cats, birthday parties, christenings – you never know what you’ll get when you knock on that door. One of the best parts of campaigning has been the sheer novelty of it all. Since this campaign started I’ve knocked on thousands of doors, met thousands of voters and had many, many conversations like the one I briefly recounted above – most of which ended positively. I’ve heard war stories from a retired firefighter, learned the history of Chinese-Vietnamese relations from a proud new American citizen, heard complaints about speeding on a busy road neighboring a bustling elementary school, and have been astonished by the generosity of folks who are equally surprised to find a candidate for public office on their doorstep, asking for their vote. This is grassroots

T R AIL

Brian Schoeneman with Governor Bob McDonnell in Fairfax. Yes, Bria n is that tall.

Greeting voters at his kickoff in June 2011.

OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 23

politics at its core. And it’s what I need to be doing if I’m going to win this seat. It’s a tough campaign, facing an entrenched incumbent, and I’m working hard every day to see this through. Why am I bothering? A Democratic legislator and I were talking one day before I launched my campaign. I told him off-hand that I was considering running. He quickly poo-pooed the idea, remarking that the last thing Speaker Howell needs is more Republicans from Northern Virginia. My friend had a point – as of now, we Republicans maintain a significant majority in the House of Delegates, with 59 of the seats being held by members of our party. Throw in the two independent Delegates who caucus with us and the Republican majority stands at 61, to the Democrats 39. With

redistricting and the fact that House Democrats have been singularly unable to recruit any serious challengers to most Republican incumbents across the Commonwealth – the Democrats only contested 53 of the 100 seats at all, including their 39 incumbencies – it is next to impossible for the Democrats to take back the House this year. On the other hand, the State Senate seems poised to move in the opposite direction. We have managed to field 34 candidates, including our 18 incumbents in the 40 State Senate districts. Democratic control over the State Senate is hanging by a thread, and given how much good legislation has died by Dick Saslaw’s hands over the last two years since we swept the statewide offices, the attention – and the resources – have been focused on regaining the State Senate. We definitely need to take back the State Senate. That’s why the conventional wisdom says we don’t worry about the House races and focus all our energy on the State Senate. But, as is often the case, the

conventional wisdom is wrong. We can’t afford to ignore the House, especially winnable seats in Northern Virginia. I know that sounds self serving, but I have to disagree with the idea that we have nothing to worry about in the House. Winning more seats in the House from Northern Virginia will have a major impact in two critical ways. First, we can never afford to rest on our laurels – we need to be winning seats whenever and wherever possible because you never predict bad electoral years. Second, Northern Virginia is a critical area for all of our statewide office holders, both federal and state, and having sitting elected officials makes it far easier for our statewide candidates to win. History tells us that even the strongest of majorities can be easily swept aside in a few short years. Just look at what kind of a difference four years made in the federal House. Another run of bad state House years like 2005 or 2007 and we could easily be looking at a return to Democratic control of

Speaking before the City of Fairfax Republican Committee. 24 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

the House. This is made even more likely if the White House changes hands next year. It’s in our best interests now to run up the score in the House as much as possible – the extra seats we win this year could be the difference between Republicans maintaining our majority or returning to the bad old days of not that long ago. Redistricting has made a number of districts in Northern Virginia more viable – my own included. And given the population increases we’ve seen in Loudoun and Prince William, we have a number of new open seats in those areas that we need to win. We have the opportunity to expand our majority and we should take advantage of it. As for the impact on our statewide candidates, the benefit is more fundamental. Sitting elected officials have won elections. They have found enough voters willing to pull the lever for a Republican and they know their districts better than anyone. They have the information – both the physical data and the on-the-ground knowledge of their districts – that is very difficult to replicate by any statewide campaign. In districts with Republican incumbents, our statewide candidates have the benefit of good data they don’t have to spend money to recreate, and they have the knowledge that they’ll have help on election day in turning those voters out. Look at the number of statewide candidates – on both sides of the aisle – that have called Northern Virginia home. George Allen, Don Beyer, Mark Warner, Ken Cuccinelli,

Bob McDonnell and many others have lived in Northern Virginia and have bases of support here. As the most populous part of the state, being able to run competitively in Northern Virginia is critical to our ability to win statewide. The number of candidates we produce in Northern Virginia isn’t a coincidence. Having a base here is important. The McDonnell/ Bolling/Cuccinelli team had the benefit of Cuccinelli’s data for his district, and the data from Tim Hugo, Dave Albo, Bob Marshall and the rest of our Northern Virginia delegation. Today, we have even more data with the additions of new delegates like Tag Greason, Jim LeMunyon and Barbara Comstock. We’ll have even more if the various candidates, including me, we have running are able to win this year. And that will make a difference in 2013. But it’s not just about electing Republicans. While I consider that important, what is more important – what is always more important – is the people. My community. My neighbors. Northern Virginia is one of the more unique regions in the Commonwealth of Virginia. It’s truly unlike any other part of the state. My extended family is from southwest Virginia and I spent plenty of summers out on Claytor

Schoeneman at the head of his volunteers at the City of Fairfax Fou rth of July Parade.

The Schoeneman family - Brian, KayAnn, Nicholas and Howie.

Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli with Schoeneman at a Fairfax County Republican Committee event. OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 25

Lake, running around the back roads of Pulaski County when I was growing up. I’ve been up and down the I-81 corridor, from Front Royal to Bristol. I’ve visited Richmond, spent time in Norfolk and Hampton Roads, seen the sights in Southside and have spent more time in Charlottesville than I ever wanted to. But I have never found anywhere in Virginia that is as eclectic and energetic than Northern Virginia. Part of it is the closeness to Washington and the font of American political power. Part of it is the highly mobile nature of many of the people who live here – Northern Virginia is home to the Pentagon, to the defense industry, the tech companies that have earned us the sobriquet of the Silicon Valley of the east. Throw in the dozens of world class colleges in the area, some in DC and some right here in Northern

Dog Gone Right

Wade Brumett

26 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

Virginia, including George Mason University in my own district, and Northern Virginia draws people from all ages and all walks of life to call it home. This makes for a highly diverse and highly educated community – one that I am proud to call home. That’s why I’ve been working so hard to win this race and support our many candidates across Northern Virginia. It’s where we call home and we owe it to our neighbors and our constituents to keep our region one of the best places to live, work and run a business not only in Virginia but also in America. I love my community and I want to help make it a better place to live. And in a community that’s survived a hurricane, a tropical storm, major flooding and an earthquake all in the last month, there have been plenty of opportunities to help. That’s why when I’ve been

out knocking doors I haven’t just been campaigning. I’ve been trying to help. After hearing the story of the resident who was concerned about speeding in her community, I made a few calls and with the help of our local supervisor Pat Herrity, we were able to get the Fairfax Police to enhance patrols in her area. Just a few days later, in a two hour span FCPD had written half a dozen tickets, including one for driving 51 in a 35 zone. In the end, win or lose, this is where I live, where I’m raising my son and where I intend to be for the rest of my life. Anything I can do to help my neighbors – the folks I want call my constituents after November – I’m going to do. That’s what public service is all about. I’m looking forward to the end of this campaign and win or lose, I know it will have been one of the greatest experiences of my life.

The Dulles rail financial disaster continues:

will Virginia taxpayers

BAIL IT OUT?

osh, what a surprise! The yet to be completed 23 mile extension of the Metro rail line to Dulles airport is already confronting serious financial difficulties. Added to the money problems are a series of lapses in management’s performance and the revelation that flaws in the system’s design will discourage ridership and further diminish its currently

by Ronald D. Utt

projected marginal contribution to regional mobility. In response, the system’s manager – the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) – is seeking bailouts from the state of Virginia and from the federal government. A project doomed to fail The only surprise in all of this is that the many people in

charge of overseeing the project are surprised and disappointed by these revelations: As the record reveals, the mediocre performance of the system was predicted by the project’s own justification report submitted to the federal government in 2004 , and recognized by the leadership of the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) during the Bush OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 27

Administration who refused to fund the project until beaten into submission by Congress. Consider the key findings of WMAA’s 2004 report to USDOT: • By the project’s completion in 2025, traffic volumes on the ten highway links in the corridor would be reduced by only 1.5 percent compared to levels that would occur without the extension.

The cost per new rider is enough to lease each two BMW 328i convertibles for life • This negligible gain in traffic relief would be erased by 2027, given projected traffic growth rates. In effect, an estimated $6 billion (in current dollars) would be spent for two years of trivial traffic relief. • As a consequence, net energy saving by 2025 (measured in energy saver per BTU, as car usage declines and transit usage rises) would be 0.5 percent for the full 23 mile project, while the Phase I (to Reston’s Wiehle Avenue) link of 11.7 miles of track would actually increase energy usage. Importantly, given the new automobile mileage standards since adopted, and the proposed 54.5 mpg requirement, this projected energy savings may already have turned into a loss. Again, keep in mind that the data in the above three 28 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

bullet points were provided by consultants to MWAA and submitted by them to the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). To put this in perspective, the Heritage Foundation estimated that the cost per new rider attracted from a car (daily rider annualized) exceeds $15,000. That is enough to lease each new Dulles rail transit rider two BMW 328i convertibles for life and still return a few thousand dollars back to the taxpayer. By this measure, the Dulles extension would be one of the most expensive new transit projects ever conceived. The federal government was skeptical about the project, in part because WMAA – the manager of the two airports in Virginia – had no experience in managing a major transit project. Indeed, the performance of its newly completed people mover at Dulles airport leaves much to be desired, and is not much of an improvement over the clumsy “mobile lounges” it partially replaced. The 3.8-mile AeroTrain cost $1.5 billion and has four underground stations. In 2007 U.S. DOT’s Inspector General (IG) expressed concern about WMAA’s involvement, observing that the project has experienced substantial growth in estimated costs and large schedule slippages, and recommended that FTA exercise “extra vigilance” in assessing the risks posed by the MWAA’s takeover of the project. Making reference to Boston’s mismanagement of its infamous “Big Dig” tunnel project, the IG noted that “These lessons are relevant in light of MWAA’s lack of experience in managing a mass transit project.” Combined with the lackluster

performance projections in MWAA’s 2004 report and the IG’s warnings, in January 2008 the FTA notified Virginia’s Governor Kaine that “the Dulles rail project in its current form would receive an overall New Starts rating of “Medium – Low” which would render it ineligible to advance into the Final Design stage and receive federal assistance of up to $1.5 billion.” Despite these warnings and concerns, Congress stepped in and forced the USDOT to approve funds for the project. As the Washington Post reported in 2008: “The reversal caps a year of frantic activity by the region’s top politicians, who have steadfastly pressured Peters [Mary Peters, then Secretary of Transportation] and the White House to keep alive a project that state, federal and airport officials have planned for more than 40 years… ‘God bless Mary Peters’ said U.S. Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R-VA), who along with [then Virginia Governor] Kaine and recently retired U.S. senator John W. Warner (R) led state efforts to revive Dulles rail.” The project’s many deficiencies As the project has since progressed, the 2007 concerns of the IG -- and those of the leadership of USDOT -- have turned out to be remarkably prescient. Consider the following series of developments and admissions that have occurred during the past year: • Reflecting a “bait and switch” approach to the project’s budgeting, in April 2011 the MWAA board approved $300 million increase in the budget to build an underground station at the

airport instead of the less expensive above ground station originally requested. The original station would have been located more than a fifth of a mile from the main terminal, and after 40 years of planning it finally dawned on the planners that few prospective passengers would be inclined to drag their luggage more than a fifth of a mile from a rail car to a terminal that one Dulles official admits “is yet another trek at another airport that right now has too many treks.” In response to severe criticism from Virginia officials, the MWAA retracted the proposal a few months later. • Another planning oversight was the discovery that the 23 mile trip from downtown Washington to the airport would take 52 minutes, plus the fifth of a mile walk from the rail car to the ticket counter. Counting that long walk, plus the time taken to get from home/ office to a Metro station (and struggling with baggage on Metro escalators

that often don’t work) MWAA planners discovered that the multi-modal one hour plus commute was twice as long as a car could take to make the same trip. Recognizing that this arduous and time consuming trek might discourage all but diehard rail fans, MWAA has proposed a third rail line from Washington through the close-in Virginia suburbs to offer express service bypassing several existing stations in Arlington County. Although no cost estimate for this scheme has been revealed, MWAA estimates that this costly investment would shave ten minutes off the travel time, making it closer to an hour. No estimate was provided on what impact this change would have on usage by prospective Arlington County passengers. • Despite 40 years of planning and vast federal subsidies, it turns out

that the MWAA doesn’t have the financial resources to complete the project and are now seeking additional funds from the federal government and the state of Virginia. Part of the existing funding is to come from higher tolls on the Dulles Toll Road, which former Governor Kaine transferred to MWAA in 2005. As it turns out, however, some estimate that the tolls will have to be increased from $2.00 today to an estimated $8.00 to $11.00 for a 14 mile ride. At that level few will use the road, so the MWAA will not receive anywhere near the expected revenues; hence the search for new taxpayer subsidies. • To date that search has focused on a TIFIA ( T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act) loan of an estimated $1.7 billion from USDOT. Although TIFIA

loans

involve concessionary credit arrangements that would make a subprime lender blush, the $1.7 billion requested is well beyond the size of any previous TIFIA loan, and $700 million more than the annual allotment for the federal program. With San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Honolulu also seeking big TIFIA loans to fund their own transit boondoggles, it is unlikely that this wish would be accommodated unless Congress revises the program in the temporary extension of SAFETEA-LU at the end of September, 2011. This is unlikely to happen. Why it won’t work Dulles rail is a poorly conceived and mismanaged project whose limited benefits will be well below the costs to build and operate the system. As its financial problems worsen, WMAA will continue to cast an ever widening net in search of billions of dollars in subsidies from taxpayers in Virginia and the Nation to bail out a project that has been doomed to failure from the very beginning. Congress, the White House and the state of Virginia should reject these requests for more taxpayer subsidies, and instead force changes on WMAA’s Dulles rail project to protect innocent taxpayers from the cost of failure. In crafting these solutions, the federal government and the state of Virginia need to be cognizant of a few metrics to put the value and cost of the project in an appropriate context. • For starters, any state bailout of the project would involve 30 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

a transfer of income from lower income Virginians to some of the wealthiest people in the state and the Nation. Whereas the median household incomes of all Virginians is $59,300, that same measure in the three counties served by Dulles rail – Fairfax, Arlington and Loudoun - range from $96,200 to $114,000. • As a transportation project, Dulles rail is likely to capture only a small portion of the passenger/commuter market as long travel times, high fare costs, and inconvenient station access preserve the automobile’s competitive advantage. • As is apparent from the longdebate over the decision to do the project, USDOT’s initial rejection of it, and the consultant’s lackluster performance projections, the real driving force for the project is the substantial benefits that many believe would accrue to the existing commercial property owners in the corridor it would serve. In the (overly optimistic) belief that a new rail line would deter automobile usage by diverting shoppers and employees to public transportation, property owners in the corridor expect to substantially densify their properties by building higher, and by converting existing parking lots to income-generating office and retail space. How to solve the problem To protect the people of Virginia from this pending disaster, Governor Bob McDonnell, Secretary of Transportation

Sean Connaughton, the state legislature, and the USDOT must take these necessary steps to protect Virginia taxpayers and resist any state or federal bailout. Options to contain the damage from this act of fiscal incontinence include: • Terminate the system at Wiehle Avenue, thereby limiting the project to its 11.7 mile Phase I goals and the funds currently available to complete and operate this leg of the system. • Prohibit any state or Federal funds from being used to fund Phase II of the system: the extension from Wiehle Avenue in Reston to Dulles Airport and beyond. • Require that any and all funds needed to complete Phase I and to start and finish Phase II s come from the taxpayers in the Virginia counties of Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun who will be the only ones to “benefit” from the project. • Revenue options that these counties should impose, or be permitted (through local referendum as appropriate) to impose on their citizens to complete the project could include a regional increase in the sales tax, an increase in the surcharge on the property tax levied on commercial properties within the three counties, a surcharge on the corporate income tax levied on corporations within the three counties, a user fee or surtax on passengers using the Metro in Virginia, and any other revenue raisers confined to the citizens and the business community who would directly benefit from the project.

2012 what to look for in a president

by Norman Leahy

nlike Mr. Butler and his fellow framers, those of us looking for a presidential candidate do not have the good fortune to have Virginia’s most prominent son, George Washington, among our choices. But we still have the presidency, and next November, we have an opportunity to choose whether to stay the course, and re-elect Mr. Obama, or elevate him to private life and replace him with one of the GOP candidates currently out on the trail. It’s a given that conservatives and Republicans prefer Mr. Obama return to Illinois. Traditionally, the question has been “who is the best Republican candidate to do that?” But in 2012, the traditional answer – “the most conservative candidate who can win,” isn’t enough. This time around, a candidate’s principles matter more than ever. Making that switch won’t be easy. Typically, campaigns turn on small things, fleeting images or turns of phrase that are more powerful than a thousand stump speeches. Remember

Michael Dukakis, complete with helmet, riding in a tank during the 1988 campaign? How about Gerald Ford calling Poland a free country during the final debate with Jimmy Carter? Or Reagan’s one-liners that reduced both Carter and, four years later, Walter Mondale into landslide victims? We love those little moments because, in an instant, they humanize, and sometimes humiliate, candidates who are otherwise scripted within an inch of their lives. But they are also trivia. They tell us little about a candidate’s philosophy and even less about what he would do if entrusted with the most powerful position in government. In 2008, we didn’t even reach this pitiful level of rigor. Instead, the majority of voters cast their ballots for a gifted politician with a paltry resume who promised them hope and change. They got neither. He got a Nobel Peace Prize. What’s the GOP to do? Republicans have a wideopen, but very familiar presidential field. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney are

I am free to acknowledge that his powers are full great, and greater than I was disposed to make them. Nor, entre nous, do I believe they would have been so great had not many of the members cast their eyes towards General Washington as President, and shaped their Ideas of the Powers to be given to a President, by their opinion of his Virtue. Pierce Butler

South Carolina constitutional conventional delegate OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 31

running again. Newt Gingrich has resurfaced, as has Rick Santorum. And somewhat newer faces like Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry have added color and interest, Herman Cain, a darling of the tea party set, is already fading. Tim Pawlenty never caught fire and has withdrawn. And former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson? Rumor is he’s running, but in which direction remains unknown. It’s the same for former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who is a media favorite, but rarely out-polls the margin of error. From this field of wouldbes and never-will-bes one theme has emerged: the federal government has gotten too big, meddlesome and expensive. It needs to be cut, capped and, if possible, balanced so that the economy can get moving again and jobs and growth can reappear. In many ways, this overarching message differs little from that of previous GOP presidential candidates. In 1996, GOP nominee Bob Dole’s favorite prop was his pocket edition of the

32 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

Constitution. He cited whenever possible the text and virtues of the 10th Amendment and how he would return states to their proper role in the federal system. In 1980, Ronald Reagan told crowds that he believed in states’ rights and the restoration of balance between the federal and state governments. He was chided then for making allusions to Jim Crow and segregation, much as tea partiers who invoke the 10th Amendment are chided today. Despite that, the current candidate field shares Reagan’s view of a bloated federal government that treats the states as accounting fictions rather than as partners. But that the issue still has to be mentioned at all shows that even the popular, principled Reagan was unable either to permanently shrink the federal government or revivify federalism. Why should this crowd be able to succeed where he failed? “Are you ready to fight them?” This doesn’t mean we should give up on the work Reagan started. Finding someone suited for the job, though, demands that we ask ourselves a few simple questions, beginning with “what attributes we want in a president?” One answer comes from an interview my colleague Scott Lee recently conducted with Virginia’s Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli on Lee’s “The Score” radio show. Cuccinelli, who has

received a few calls from GOP presidential candidates, said that “every voter should start every race with that question in mind.” We shouldn’t be looking for a “nice guy.” Instead, Cuccinelli suggested, “we should look for someone who is an intellectual conservative,” whose approach to a problem isn’t “what would a conservative do – because that means they aren’t really a conservative. But what is the limited government answer to the problem. And should we be doing anything, period? I want to see someone who has a track record of thinking that way. ” That’s taking the Reagan example and going a step further – all the way back to Barry Goldwater. But there’s one more, very important quality he says we need to look for, namely, a candidate who is willing to set his or her own course: “When your own team goes the wrong direction, are you ready to fight them? That’s the ultimate test of mettle.” The candidate who comes closest to meeting these criteria is likely, in Cuccinelli’s mind, the one who will not only make the best challenger for Mr. Obama, but also the best person to carry on the work Ronald Reagan began 30 years ago. He may be right. But I would add one more quality to look for in a candidate that’s just as important: can any of them inspire the sort of confidence Pierce Butler had in George Washington? Can we trust them to wield the formidable powers of the presidency with humility, fairness and, above all, restraint? If one of them meets that standard, we’ve found our winner.

Virginia’s renewed national prominence:

the

“Mother of Presidents”

regains her relevance

n V.O. Key’s political science primer “Southern Politics in State and Nation”, written in 1949, Key calls Virginia a “political museum piece.” When speaking of our politics, Key said that “political power has been closely held by a small group of leaders who, themselves and their predecessors, have subverted democratic institutions and deprived most Virginians of a voice in their government.” Of course, the “small group” Key was referring to was the Byrd Machine. But Virginia has been plagued by more than just machine politics over the course of a century. As we remember the 150th anniversary of the Civil War, it’s hard to forget Virginia’s role in “the recent unpleasantness.” An adamant slave-state, students at the then recentlyformed University of Virginia debated whether or not a state had the right to secede. They agreed in the affirmative, writes Susan Dunn in “Dominion of Memories.” They also debated whether “In case of the election of Lincoln should the Southern States secede?” It was resoundingly decided “yes” by a vote of 33-6. When Virginia had the opportunity in the General Assembly in the early 1830’s to

by J.R. Hoeft change the course of history by removing slavery in the commonwealth, Virginia demurred. When Virginia debated secession in the critical first days of the Civil War at convention, the first vote, which included the western counties, was to reject it. But when the western counties were not included in a follow-on vote (which resulted in West Virginia), the commonwealth made the fateful decision to oppose Lincoln’s call for federal support and to resist

instead. Throughout the 20th Century, while the rest of the nation moved towards Jefferson’s ideal that “all men are created equal,” Virginia was squarely resistant, supporting a series of “Jim Crow” laws designed to segregate our population. While

OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 33

Virginia has had five presidents actually from Virginia at the time of their presidency (Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, and Tyler - the last being Tyler in 1845), for the past 150 years, Virginia hasn’t had a serious candidate on any national ticket until recently. Slavery, the Civil War, Reconstruction, segregation, machine politics, Jim Crow, and Nixon’s “southern strategy” marginalized the “Mother of Presidents” role in electoral politics. Not anymore. Our commonwealth is regaining its rightful place as a national leader. Perhaps it was the election of Virginia’s first, and only the nation’s second, AfricanAmerican governor, L. Douglas Wilder, and his brief run

34 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

for president in 1992. Or maybe it was the well-known national figure of Oliver North running for U.S. Senate in 1994. Perhaps it was from former governors Mark Warner, George Allen, and Jim Gilmore all flirting with campaigning for presidential nominations in 2008. Maybe it was both Gilmore and former Gov. Tim Kaine running their parties’ respective national committee. Or perhaps it was rumors of the then Minority Whip Eric Cantor as a possible running mate for presidential nominee Sen. John McCain and Kaine as a possible running mate for President Barack Obama in 2008. Regardless of what the reason, Congressman Cantor is the current Congressional majority leader and Governor Bob McDonnell is now on “any one’s short-list for vice president”, according to presidential candidate Mitt Romney, and At t o r n e y General Ken Cuccinelli is leading another fight for state’s rights – this one in the court room against nationalized health care. Virginia is clearly back. After 150 years of being in the wilderness, our commonwealth and its 13 electoral votes are a much soughtafter commodity; especially after awarding our votes to the

Democrat for president in 2008 the first time since 1964. Instead of Virginia being the home of battlefields, it is now a political battleground of great relevance to the national debate. To help explain Virginia’s relevance, two of Virginia’s leading political figures: the aforementioned potential VP candidate, Gov. McDonnell, and political pundit Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, help explain why. First, Sabato on why Virginia has been resurrected: “I’m a native and loyal Virginian who has lived here essentially all of my almost 60 years. I have personally witnessed the enormous changes that have taken place in the New, once Old, Dominion. “When I grew up in the 1950s, Virginia was still a rural-based state governed by Jim Crow laws with “whites only” signs everywhere. It was of the Old South, reveling in its underdevelopment and separation from the rest of the country, save for Dixie. By the 1960s Virginia had already started the process of becoming a Middle Atlantic state. Jim Crow was gone, the poll tax was dead, the suburbs were burgeoning, and Virginia began to become economically competitive with northern neighbors. “Mills Godwin was the first truly modern governor, and he deserves credit for leaving part of his own past behind and pushing Virginia forward with the sales tax, the community college system, and improvements in transportation, mental health, and a wide variety of other areas-including an updated state Constitution.

“Since then, Virginia has pretty consistently made strides. Yes, it is helped enormously by the heavy federal government influence and spending--military and otherwise. But in virtually every policy area the modern Virginia is unrecognizable compared to the state I grew up in. “The state was once defined by black versus white. Now the development of minority communities of Hispanic and Asian origin has diversified the state, especially in Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia, but also Richmond. Wealthy suburbanites and exurbanites have brought a cosmopolitan air to much of the Commonwealth, while not obliterating the rich history that sets Virginia apart. Two-party competitiveness, which took root in the late 1960s and accelerated, has made Virginia more responsive to popular preferences and shifts. Put all this together and you find the state becoming as “purple” as any in the country, easily shifting back and forth depending on the issues and controversies of the day. “With 13 electoral votes, likely to become 14 by 2020, Virginia is a prize worth having in presidential contests. Both parties want to win it. So our politicians have become national figures in both parties: Chuck Robb, Doug Wilder, George Allen, Jim Gilmore, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and now Bob McDonnell and Eric Cantor, with more to come. “Vice presidential speculation is always a sign that a state has matured and is politically desirable (on the 1960 Lyndon Johnson model). Virginia is in the mainstream politically and

economically, and as a result, as Frank Atkinson wrote, Virginia is now in the vanguard. A state wants the image of being on the cutting edge, and now we have that. It was something only dreamed about for many decades, but Virginia isn’t stodgy anymore. Second, McDonnell on the importance of Virginia, federalism – and how Virginia is leading the new debate, and whether he will consider the vice presidency : “Virginia has a rich and varied history with some incredibly great moments and some really tough times in our history—all of which is well-documented. But today, when you look at just the rankings that have been accumulated by both Republican and Democrat governors over the last 30 years—Best Managed State, Most Business-Friendly State, Best Place to Raise a Child, second-best college and university system in the country—we are clearly a state that is in the top-tier of the states in virtually every major category. “Certainly our proximity to Washington, D.C. is a plus, being in the middle of the east coast is a plus and, for the most part, in the past couple decades, we’ve had a pretty fiscally conservative approach to governing, especially when we’ve had Republican governors that’s helped us to generate surpluses and keep unemployment down. “I think there are a lot of factors that contribute to Virginia’s increase in visibility. “One, you have off-year elections, so by definition you get more visibility. In ’09, for instance, when I won as governor, there was only one other race and that was in New

Jersey, so you get more attention in your elections. “Second, I think being a closely divided state in the legislature has also gotten us a lot of attention.

A state wants the image of being on the cutting edge, and now we have that. It was something only dreamed about for many decades, but Virginia isn’t stodgy anymore. “And, third, the fact that we are looked at now as truly a swing state. We’re the 12th most populous state, the eighth most prosperous state. When you’re a swing state—as Virginia has been deemed to be the last couple cycles—you just get more attention. “I’ll leave it up to the pundits to say why they believe there’s been resurgence in Virginia’s national prominence but I think it’s by a combination of all those things.” JH: As the now chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association, it has to be gratifying to know that your peers – all leaders in their own-rightOCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 35

have chosen you to lead them. Supplanting humility, which I know you have in abundance, why do you think national leaders are looking to you to lead them? BM: “The Republican Governors Association was immensely helpful to me [when I ran for governor] in 2009 and once I got elected I got immediately got involved in everything from helping to raise money to being selected to serve on the executive committee to help govern the organization. “I have a passion for restoring the founders view of federalism; I think that’s one of the reason’s our country is broke is that the federal government is doing too much that they’re not supposed to do and they’re not doing it well. And, so, [the federal government is] spending a ton of money that they shouldn’t be spending. So, that’s why I really got involved in the RGA in a big way. “I can only say that I have been very fortunate that the other

Dog Gone Right

Wade Brumett

36 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

governors have nominated me to be vice chair last year. I obviously wasn’t expecting to be chairman right now, but Governor Perry’s decision has given me that opportunity and, hopefully, I’ll be formally elected at the winter meeting in December to be the chairman next year. “It’s an immensely positive opportunity for me to talk nationally about Republican governors. About the importance of federalism. About the 10th Amendment. About having the states have a loud and, maybe, collective voice at what’s best for our country – these are things that I think Republican and Democrat administrations have not paid enough attention to over the last many decades. I think it’s a critical time for America to think about the importance once again of the states.” JH: This is obligatory and hypothetical. If you are asked to run for vice president, and you accept, will you consider yourself not fulfilling your

obligation and promise to the people of the commonwealth by not completing a full term? BM: “Listen, all I have said is that any governor that got a call from a presidential candidate that said you can help our ticket and you can help our country – any person would be interested. That’s all I said. It’s hypothetical. I’m not campaigning. I’m not looking for it. I’m thrilled to be Governor of Virginia and leading the RGA…and participating in the national debate about what’s good for our country. “I’ve probably said everything I can possibly say about it. I’m planning to serve four years. I’m not looking for anything else other than a great upcoming twoand-a-half years of continuing to improve Virginia, but I do want to be helpful in whatever way I can in making sure we have a Republican president in 2012. I think our country’s future depends on having fiscal conservatism in the White House.”

OBAMA McDONNELL vs.

A study in contrast by Ken Falkenstein

he conventional wisdom among conservatives is that President Obama has failed in his misguided efforts to improve the economy. They are wrong: One cannot “fail” at something one never attempts to do. Barack Obama is a movement leftist. Leftism is his religion and his life’s passion. He began his political career at the home of Bill Ayers, an unrepentant leftist terrorist. He spent twenty years attending a church with a stated Communist agenda headed by a preacher who was recorded delivering a sermon asking God to “damn America” after the 9/11 attacks. That pastor presided over his marriage ceremony. In the Illinois State Senate, Obama opposed legislation to protect the lives of babies who survived attempts at abortion. And in a radio interview, he stated his plans to move incrementally to a socialized medicine program in a series of steps designed to destroy the health insurance industry and leave no choice

but for the government to take over the system. In the short time that he served in the U.S. Senate, Obama amassed a record that made him the most liberal of all 100 senators. And despite his best efforts to obscure his history, record, and agenda on the campaign trail, Obama could not help but occasionally let his radicalism slip through, such as when he told his San Francisco financial sponsors that mainstream Americans are racists who “get bitter” and “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them” and when he told Joe the Plumber that he wanted to “spread the wealth around.” Upon assuming office, this supposedly “post-partisan” president appointed Rahm Emanuel - one of the most hyperpartisan Democrats in the country - to be his Chiefof-Staff. Obama had inherited an economy in recession, and Emanuel revealed the Obama mindset when he stated, “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.” In that statement lies the heart, soul, and mind of Barack Obama. Obama took office in a time of economic crisis, but unlike any other president in American history, he did not seek and assume office for the purpose of solving this crisis. He sought and assumed office for the purpose of exploiting it. When Obama took office, he did so with Democrat supermajorities in Congress that were so large that the Republicans lacked the numbers to stop 38 | BEARING DRIFT OCTOBER 2011

anything that the Democrats wanted to do. Obama and his congressional Democratic allies had unlimited and unchecked power to do whatever they chose. What they did with that power is instructive: They appropriated over $800 billion in the guise of “stimulus” to support and strengthen their public sector union sponsors while lying to the American people that the money would be spent on “shovel-ready” public works designed to create 500,000 jobs per month and keep unemployment below 8%. (In fact, only 6% of that money went to shovel-ready jobs, and when this fact became known, Obama shrugged it off with a joke. And unemployment continued to rise and has remained between 9-10% since the “stimulus” was passed. In fact, this year, for the first time in 45 years, no jobs were created in August.) They passed a scheme designed to realize Obama’s dream of destroying the private sector health insurance industry and lead to a socialized medicine system. They nationalized car companies and the entire student loan program and created a “czar” to regulate the compensation of officers of private sector companies. They cranked up the regulatory process to impose their statist agenda on the country by executive fiat and bypass the people’s elected representatives in Congress to the maximum extent possible. The key to understanding Obama is to understand that he would have taken every single one of those actions regardless of the economic conditions if he had the

ability to do so. None of those actions were taken to address the economy as it existed. All of those actions were taken because the economic conditions as they existed made those actions possible. The intention by Obama and his Democrats to enact these “solutions” preexisted the problem. So, it is hardly surprising that Obama’s policies have not corrected our economic problems. Those policies were never meant to correct those problems. They were meant to advance a leftist agenda that Obama and his Democrats have sought to advance for decades before the current economic downturn. How else do you explain the fact that in his recent “jobs” speech to Congress, he proposed more of the same policies that he previously implemented that did nothing to improve the economy? Albert Einstein defined “insanity” as “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Obama is not insane. He doesn’t expect different results. He just wants to take every possible opportunity to exploit a bad economy to advance his leftist religion. A portrait in contrast to Barack Obama is Virginia’s Republican Governor, Bob McDonnell. McDonnell assumed the governorship after a distinguished career in the House of Delegates and as Virginia’s Attorney General. In the legislature, McDonnell quickly established a reputation as a hard worker who was determined to get results on tough and intransigent issues. He was the primary sponsor for Governor George Allen’s

criminal justice reform package, including the repeal of parole. He went on to become the Chairman of the Courts of Justice Committee, where he continued to reform and improve the courts and the justice system as a whole. At the same time, McDonnell was serving his country as an officer in the Army Reserves, where he ultimately retired as a Lieutenant Colonel after 21 years of service.

Obama just wants to take every possible opportunity to exploit a bad economy to advance his leftist religion. As Governor of Virginia, McDonnell has amassed a record that has earned nationwide attention and respect - specifically because of its contrast with that of Barack Obama. He inherited a $2.2 billion budget deficit from former governor Tim Kaine. He balanced both of his first two budgets without raising taxes by cutting $6 billion of spending, and in August of this year he announced a surplus of $544 million. He also succeeded in procuring $4 billion for transportation infrastructure over the next three years at record-low interest rates and construction prices and without

raising taxes. He accomplished this turnaround by applying conservative principles: He kept taxes low, budgeted conservatively, and worked in consultation with private sector leaders to generate pro-business policies. Bob McDonnell took office with the objective of solving the tough problems that he inherited, and he succeeded in doing so by applying conservative principles. Barack Obama, by contrast, took office intent on imposing his leftist religion on the American people without caring whether those policies would improve the economic crises that he inherited. The predictable result has been that those economic problems have worsened over his tenure. In a recent exclusive interview with Bearing Drift, McDonnell explained Obama’s poor record as president as follows: “There’s no question in my mind that part of the problem with this administration is that the president had no executive experience – and he brought in a lot of people that didn’t [have experience either]. It’s now becoming evident why they can’t solve problems. They can’t bring the Republicans and Democrats together in the Congress. And they can’t lay out a practical set of principles and policies that are going to create jobs, reduce spending – nothing.” McDonnell’s explanation of Obama’s failures assumes that Obama shares McDonnell’s objective of strengthening the economy. To a public servant of Bob McDonnell’s caliber and character, it is unfathomable that a president of the United States would not put the good

of his country first. But Barack Obama is not Bob McDonnell. McDonnell, like most Americans, seeks a strong economy and a strong country, and he is a conservative because he has seen that conservative principles achieve those objectives. Obama, by contrast, does not start with the objective of strengthening the economy and the country. His policies are designed to advance his statist agenda without regard to whether it strengthens or weakens the economy and country. Barack Obama was elected because he was an unknown quantity who was able to define his image through dynamic but illusory speeches. Now that he and his policies are known quantities, however, his approval rating among the American people is at an abysmal 38%. Bob McDonnell, by contrast, was elected because he was a known entity whose record and accomplishments spoke for themselves. Now that he has continued his record of success based on results-oriented application of conservative principles, he is recognized as one of the most popular governors in the country and is considered to be an emerging national leader with a stratospheric approval rating among Virginians of 67%. And so, Bob McDonnell’s star is rising as Barack Obama’s is plummeting. Such is the contrast between an incumbent president focused on the advancing a radical agenda without regard to its effects on the country and an accomplished governor focused on responsibly and responsively serving the people. OCTOBER 2011 BEARING DRIFT | 39