Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience Newsletter
Beyond risk governance of GM crops: Lessons from the rising powers
Plus
Managing floods on the Kosi River Regulating financial crime
Volume 7, Number 3
www.dur.ac.uk/ihrr
Summer / Autumn 2014
Contents From the Executive Director ...................................................................................... 3 Migrants on the Margins ........................................................................................... 4 Partnership with Insurance Institute of Newcastle ........................................................ 4 Tipping Points .......................................................................................................... 5 IHRR Executive Director elected as Fellow of the British Academy .................................. 6 Moving beyond risk-based governance of agricultural GM technologies ........................... 7 Living with the Floods: Sustainable Management of the Kosi River: Interview with Professor Rajiv Sinha from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur ........................... 12 New Design for IHRR’s Blog ..................................................................................... 16 Hazard Risk Resilience Magazine Special Issue: Living with Risk .................................. 17 Recent publications from researchers affiliated with IHRR ........................................... 17 IHRR Presents ....................................................................................................... 18 Financial Crime, Corruption and the Global Financial Crisis: What is the role of regulation? ................................................................................... 19 Visitors .................................................................................................................. 22 Goodbyes .............................................................................................................. 22 Future Events ........................................................................................................ 23
Front cover image: GM soya crop in Brazil. Susana Carro-Ripalda Back cover image: Hazard Risk Resilience Magazine Want to submit news about your research in hazard, risk or resilience at Durham University? Contact: brett.cherry@durham.ac.uk
2
IHRR Newsletter
From the Executive Director look out, as well, for the public event in Durham on ‘Health Tipping Points and Society’ given as part of the national Festival of Social Science (1-8 November), supported by the Economic and Social Research Council.
This edition of our newsletter highlights several of the networks that IHRR has built up with a number of other organisations, nationally and internationally, that share our concerns with Hazard, Risk and Resilience. Items below include reports on our engagement with, for example, the Institute of Insurers, regarding flooding risks and responses, and with a range of other participants at our events concerned with diverse risks including those affecting financial markets and use of GM crops in agriculture. Our international contacts are also underlined by, for example, an interview about flood risk management on the Kosi River in India, between Professor Rajiv Sinha from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur and Brett Cherry, our Research Writer and Communication Officer. In addition, upcoming events include talks by visitors from the Philippines discussing the response to Typhoon risks.
I hope that you will enjoy this latest update on our activities around the world to develop research to build resilience to various hazards we face in the world today.
Professor Sarah Curtis Executive Director of IHRR
We are pleased to announce new research supported by the Royal Geographical Society and led by Dr Andrew Baldwin, Co-Director at IHRR, in collaboration with University of Sussex, which will also include a range of international partners. I encourage our readers to Summer / Autumn 2014
3
Migrants on the margins The project addresses a number of key, interlinked geographical themes – migration, environmental change and urban governance – and will carry out in-depth field research in at least four cities in partnership with international researchers.
IHRR Co-Director Dr Andrew Baldwin is a co-investigator on a new project on migration, environmental change and urban governance.
The ‘Migrants on the margins’ project part of the Royal Geographical Society, involves researchers throughout the UK (SOAS, University of Sussex and Durham University) and the developing world including Colombo, Sri Lanka, Dhaka, Bangladesh, Harare, Zimbabwe and Hargeisa, Somaliland.
As well as seeking to improve lives in the areas of study, the project also aims to build regional research capacity and networks of expertise in Asia and Africa. Research findings will be published in leading academic journals and shared with wider audiences through a documentary film, an exhibition, lectures and educational resources for schools. More information is available on the RGS website: http://www.rgs.org/.
Partnership with Insurance Institute of Newcastle IHRR is working with the Insurance Institute of Newcastle to share knowledge on flood risk modelling and business continuity management. Evaluating strategies
businesses’
flood
response
Dr Graham Coates (School of Engineering and Computer Sciences), joined by Dr Martina McGuiness from the Management School at the University of Sheffield, explained how their research in developing a framework to evaluate businesses’ flood response strategies will lead to guidelines influencing behaviour change with flood preparation. The presentation covered how their wide reaching research brought together academics working in the areas of agent-based modelling and simulation, flood modelling, economic modelling, business continuity management and the behavioural/ social sciences. Climate change, flood risk and public engagement Members were able to hear how UK Climate Projections can be used to consider how the probability of flood hazards occurring may
4
change over the course of the 21st century. Dr Sim Reaney and Dr Louise Bracken from the Department of Geography also shared the results of a recent study which explored the way in which communities, policy makers and practitioners engage with flood risk management which CII members found particularly relevant. The flood response strategies seminar proved to be so popular that the event was repeated in the Stockton area so that members of the Insurance Institute of Middlesbrough could also attend. Richard Talbot-Jones immediate Past-President of the Newcastle institute had this to say: ‘These recent events represent a new and exciting chapter in collaborative CPD events with local experts, I’m extremely happy that there was such a good turnout, with more than 20 delegates at each Newcastle event and a full house in Stockton’. To ensure that the link between the institutes remains strong and members can continue to attend these thought provoking and highly relevant lectures. Richard was invited to join IHRR’s advisory council in January 2015. Insurance Institute of Newcastle website: http:// www.localinstitutes.cii.co.uk
IHRR Newsletter
Tipping Points
Motives Behind Internal Fraud in the British Financial Sector Findings from the Tipping Points project. New research on internal fraud in the British financial sector by Dr Matthew Hollow (History) (WP2: Financial Crisis in the Banking Sector) explores the motivations behind acts of financial fraud committed by company employees. In order to make effective fraud risk assessments the motivations that lead employees to commit acts of fraud must be identified. While the study is not expected to be a comprehensive overview of fraud in the British financial sector, it does highlight important findings on the motivations to commit fraud by different levels of employees who work for financial companies, including banks. In the 64 case studies of financial fraud examined by Hollow using historical records, the main motive for committing fraud was for personal financial reasons, but this was not the case for senior-level employees who more often were motivated by external pressures such as helping a friend or family member, or even helping the company itself. According to the study, offences by senior staff tended to inflate the profits of their respective banks, while junior employees Summer / Autumn 2014
committing fraud were more likely to extract relatively small amounts of money for their own benefit. For junior level employees personal financial problems such as gambling debts were almost always the main reasons for committing fraud. While they are more unusual, the study shows that non-financial incentives for committing fraud do exist and tend to be from higher-level employees. The motivations for carrying out fraud in the financial industry were found to be similar to other industries. Key Finding: Personal pressures are most likely to lead employees to commit financial fraud, but external work-related pressures also motivate fraud, especially among senior management. Risks of fraud can be reduced by paying attention to motives and what takes place within wider organisational cultures. Paper: Hollow, M. (2014) Money, Morals and Motives: An Exploratory Study into Why Bank Managers and Employees Commit Fraud at Work. Journal of Financial Crime, 21 (2).
5
IHRR Executive Director elected as Fellow of the British Academy
Professor Sarah Curtis has been elected a Fellow of the British Academy (FBA). The British Academy is ‘an independent national academy of Fellows elected for their eminence in research and publication’. It is the UK’s expert body that supports and speaks for the humanities and social sciences’. Sarah was one of 42 highly distinguished UK academics from 19 universities elected as Fellows in 2014, as announced by the British Academy. Since 2012, Sarah has been Executive Director of the Institute of Hazard Risk and Resilience with oversight of its world-leading interdisciplinary research at Durham University, focusing on diverse aspects of hazards and risks in the physical and social environment and how to build resilience to these hazards. Sarah also works closely with colleagues in the Wolfson Research Institute for Health and Wellbeing.
6
Professor Curtis said: ‘I am delighted and honoured to become a Fellow of the British Academy especially as it represents further recognition of the strength of research at Durham University in fields of Health and Risk’. Professor Curtis holds a BA Hons. in Geography from Oxford University and DPhil in Urban and Regional Studies from the University of Kent. She moved to become Professor of Health and Risk in the Department of Geography at Durham in 2006. She previously worked as Professor in Geography at Queen Mary, University of London. Her work focuses in particular on geographies of health and health care; socio-geographical conditions and processes associated with health inequalities and risks for physical and mental health. She has published extensively in international, refereed academic journals and other publications. Professor Charlotte Roberts (Department of Archaeology) was also elected a Fellow of the British Academy. She is a bioarchaeologist with a background in environmental archaeology and human bioarchaeology. She has studied and interpreted human remains from archaeological sites for the past 25 years. Her research interests are bioarchaeological approaches to the history of disease and medicine worldwide.
IHRR Newsletter
Moving beyond risk-based governance of agricultural GM technologies foods. Whether GM technologies are safe or not is certainly an important question, but it should not be the only focus in governing GM because it leaves behind the cultural views and ways of life of those who have a stake in GM, such as small farmers. Risk-based assessments are overly reductionist because they assume that if GM crops and foods are deemed ‘safe’ their implementation can proceed without scrutiny, regardless of whether they are even wanted by the people who are expected to use them. Therefore opening up the GM debate is about including voices of ‘invisible’ actors who do not have a say on how these technologies will impact their lives. GM lab in Brazil The GMFuturos launch event, ‘A new approach to governing GM crops? Global lessons from the rising powers’ at the Royal Society in June brought together a range of senior academics from across the social and life sciences, together with policy practitioners, to reflect on the findings from the project and the lessons that could be learnt for UK and EU decision-making. The research led by Durham University researchers Professor Phil Macnaghten (Geography), Dr Susana CarroRipalda (Anthropology) and Dr Joanildo Burity (SGIA) emphasised that risk-based forms of governance are too limiting, and are unable to consider adequately the wider spectrum of social and cultural values that underlie the issues linked to GM crops and food production. The meeting discussed the unrealistic assumptions that tend to frame the GM crop debate, and how a more responsible approach to the governance of GM technologies needs to move beyond risk. It provided an overview of the distinct contrasts and similarities between the three different countries studied: Brazil, India and Mexico. Risk-based governance is not enough What is wrong with health and risk-based assessments of GM? According to the report, these forms of assessment tend to overlook the actual reasons why people reject GM crops and Summer / Autumn 2014
GM soya field in Brazil Views on GM from the developing world In all three national contexts of the study, people reported that rural livelihoods were in crisis. Beyond the health and safety risks of GM are risks of people losing their ways of life and livelihoods. The project identified small farmers in particular as a key stakeholder, but one that has remained all too absent in the GM debate. In Mexico small farmers continue to feed much of the population. More than 2 million farmers practice agriculture in Mexico producing 80 per cent of the country’s maize that is consumed by the majority of the population. Mexicans have great pride in maize agriculture, which is seen as an artisanal craft and as a key ingredient in Mexican social identity.
7
Farmer ploughing cotton field in India The working paper reveals that in Mexico there is considerable unease about GM maize which has contributed to an ongoing defacto moratorium. In Brazil, by contrast, GM soya and GM maize have been authorised and have been rapidly taken up by farmers, so that Brazil is now a global leader and the second largest producer of GM crops (after the USA). In India, there has also been a widespread critique of agricultural GM technologies which, using post-colonial discourse, have been commonly understood as impositions from outside actors and interests (mostly from the USA). The research also found that crop technologists and farmers would often blame each other for any problems experienced with GM crops, such as insect and weed resistance. Why then are farmers, including small farmers, planting GM crops? In the research, it was found that farmers have adopted GM crops for a variety of reasons: due to the seductive promises of the seed companies, due to labour saving and ease of application, due to the perception that if they did not plant GM crops they would risk being left out of the market, or on occasion, because their own crops had been contaminated by neighbouring GM crop plantations. This shows that the decision to adopt GM crops is not necessarily the result of farmers actively choosing the technology, but often due to wider contextual conditions.
8
In particular, a division of views between farmers and scientists sheds some light on the debate, showing that those for and against GM crops often have quite different perspectives on this highly complex issue. For scientists, plants are often viewed (ontologically) as made up of genetic material that can be manipulated at will. For smallholder farmers, seeds are often viewed as an integral part of their culture and society, and thus cannot be separated from their unique social, cultural beliefs and values. Some participants from the focus groups believed that human intervention into seeds at a genetic level could lead to major problems for present and future generations. In Mexico especially, the genetic material of seeds was seen as something that should not be tampered with because of the unknown risks it could have on people’s way of life. For several members of the international team of researchers involved in the study, it was the most interdisciplinary project they had ever been involved with, bringing together a diverse variety of academic fields from across the social and life sciences. While the research team was led by social scientists, the project worked closely with plant scientists and policy practitioners in agriculture to better understand the perceptions of different public stakeholders on GM crops, and how
Women field workers planting rice in India
IHRR Newsletter
new forms of open, inclusive, anticipatory and responsible governance could be implemented to govern agricultural GM technologies. According to the research from all three countries there was little public enthusiasm for GM crops or foods anywhere. In Brazil, for example, while large farmers were happy to grow GM soya to sell in the global marketplace, consumers (and small farmers) were rarely interested in consuming the products themselves.
biology, nanotechnology and geoengineering could also be used in the case of agricultural GM technologies. What are the lessons to be learned from these three rising powers? Taking into account the unique contexts of GM crops in each country it is clear that good governance needs to be context specific. In Mexico, for example, maize is not only a source of food, but also a way of life and a deep cultural artefact that resonates within Mexican communities. This is rarely acknowledged by agribusiness or by government in their attempts to promote GM agriculture, and this remains a reason why GM technologies are still not widely accepted in Mexico today. In India Bt cotton is grown widely throughout the country, and has led to higher yields and incomes for some farmers, but at the same time it is replacing traditional varieties of food crops and leading many farmers to become dependent on GM seed companies. Also, there is the issue of introducing new risks: the risk of weeds becoming resistant to the herbicide used in GM herbicide resistant crops, and the risk of increased pest attacks if the targeted pests develop resistance to the pesticide produced inside the GM Bt crop.
Opening up the GM debate One of the accomplishments of the GMFuturos project is the way it demonstrated how it is possible to have in-depth conversations about GM crops and foods, including discussions of the social, political, cultural and religious dynamics that are entangled with GM crops, and that it is both helpful and insightful to compare the debate across more than one national context. Researchers have shown that it is possible to engage with public stakeholders directly, but that new forms of participatory governance need to be designed in order for public concerns to be addressed adequately by policy. A major question asked during the launch event concerned how, if at all, these inclusive and open forms of dialogue should be used to inform decisionmaking? In response, it was proposed that the same kinds of ‘upstream’ models of public engagement that have been used to deal with other emerging technologies such as synthetic
However, in cases where GM crops are widely implemented, the fact that it is accepted by the market does not necessarily entail that it is also accepted by wider society. GMFuturos has addressed some of these gaps in understanding the relationship between technology and society. The reasons for using certain technologies are rarely the same and are usually deeply embedded within a myriad of social, economic and political forces, including the demands that a technology places on society. In the case of GM agricultural technologies, new problems and risks emerge and are given prominence, such as the problem of superweeds, but in addition the adoption of the technology raises far-reaching cultural and political issues tied to global trade and economic interdependence. Brazil, for example, exports much of its GM soya and maize to Europe (and increasingly to China), which is then used for animal feed. Thus the economic imperative to adopt GM crops in less developed countries is
Native maize in Mexico
Summer / Autumn 2014
9
Mexican community farmer with harvest of local maize crop. interconnected with the demands of richer nations who do not have adequate supply of animal feed for their livestock. In Mexico, indigenous farming is clearly important to the economic needs of the population, but maize itself is seen as imperative to the future generations of Mexicans. This is why anticipatory forms of governance for GM are needed because GM impacts the future of food in societies throughout the world. Better governance of GM is possible The GMFuturos report calls for anticipatory and responsible governance of GM crops and foods. It seeks to provide a template ‘to be used in structuring a deliberative conversation with policymakers and other key stakeholders’. Researchers recommend that this can be assisted through the adoption of the AIRR (‘anticipationinclusion-reflexivity-responsiveness’) framework, each constituent dimension being the subject of considered deliberation by participants at the launch event. The aim of this framework is to move beyond what social science researchers call the ‘institutional void’, the lack of institutional capacities to deal with the non-scientific dimensions of risk involved in governing GM technologies, which have been widely discussed amongst researchers. Without addressing these
10
concerns, which are mainly social and cultural, the polarisation of the GM debate will most likely continue, and the voices of crucial actors left out of the debate will remain unheard. Below is a summary of the AIRR framework as applied to agricultural GM technologies: • Anticipation seeks to develop collective inquiry on the social, ethical and political stakes associated with technoscientific advances. Scientific risk-based estimates alone cannot foresee the unforeseen impacts of a technology. To be anticipatory means to recognise the uncertainties and complexities that arise between the co-evolution of science and society, allowing stakeholders to ask ‘what if ?’ questions about the technology of concern. • Inclusion is about deliberatively including those voices that have tended to be left out of the GM debate, including smallholder farmers and publics. It is then using the results of those discussions in governance processes to help decision makers understand the conditions, if they exist, that would allow GM crops to have shared and inclusive benefits. • Reflexivity requires that researchers, including GM scientists, examine their own IHRR Newsletter
scientific culture and how they frame the GM issue, and that they engage with the value systems that shape the science they are involved with. This could for example involve training scientists to understand how their research is culturally embedded, including the assumptions about science that are often taken for granted, such as research that aims to be for the public good, but does not involve the public. • Responsiveness refers to ways in which systems of governance can respond to needs that are in the public interest. Often regulatory bodies tend to be too slow to respond adequately to public concerns, but
for controversial technologies like GM this is unacceptable, and that therefore this requires institutional innovation that moves towards transparency and public engagement with the issues involved. Further details about how this framework for governance could work in the case of GM can be found in the GMFuturos working paper available online: http://bit.ly/1p957cb. A document providing policy recommendations for the UK and EU contexts using lessons learned from the project is also available: http://bit.ly/1si5N4A.
Panel discussion led by Dr Rajeswari (left), Dr Marta astier Calderon, Dr Julia Guivant and Professor Phil Macnaghten
Summer / Autumn 2014
11
Living with the Floods: Sustainable Management of the Kosi River Interview with Professor Rajiv Sinha from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur Professor Rajiv Sinha from the Department of Civil Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur visited IHRR and the Department of Geography as a COFUND Senior Research Fellow based at St Aidan’s College. He is one of the most visible Indian scientists in the areas of fluvial geology, river science and river related hazards. Since the tragic Kosi flood in 2008, he has been the most prominent researcher in this area, pursuing several lines of activity ranging from river dynamics and flood risk to flow modelling and sub-surface stratigraphy. This has led to a series of significant publications both in scientific journals as well as in popular science magazines which have been received very well by the geosciences community. During the fellowship Rajiv worked on the development of a policy brief for hazard management in the Kosi region in the north Bihar plains in India, building on existing stakeholder
12
engagement at both the governmental and community level. He has also integrated available data to produce flood hazard and risk maps, and design flood mitigation strategies. In collaboration with colleague Professor Alex Densmore, a project leader on Earthquakes without Frontiers, Rajiv explored ways to build resilience to flood hazards through community participation. In this interview Rajiv talks about the unique dynamics of the Kosi River that flows through Bihar (India) and Nepal, and what can be done differently to manage the river and mitigate future floods. What makes the Kosi River unique? The first thing to remember is that the Kosi River does not flood in a classical way via typical overbank flooding. Typically a river floods when the banks are full and it overfloods. That’s not what happens with the Kosi. If you look at the historical records, most of the Kosi floods have happened because of a breach in the embankment, at least in the last 30-50 years, which means floods are not always associated with a high discharge event. Because it’s a dynamic system it oscillates from one side
IHRR Newsletter
CHINA Delhi
NEPAL
Ga
Kosi
BHUTAN
ng a Patna Kolkata
Dhaka
INDIA Bay of Bengal
Location of the Kosi River to the other. The point where the embankment was breached in August 2008 was vulnerable for some time. Why is it important to ‘know the river’ for managing it? If you don’t understand the river processes well then you cannot design a sustainable strategy for
for the last 100 years. On the other side of the river there was also a seepage channel that was there for many years. The embankment was eroding on both sides, and there was a significant elevation difference between the river bed and the embankment that created the cross valley gradient to cause the breach. What about the influence of climate change on the Kosi? Most rivers will have a much modified hydrograph because of climate change. There will be change in the frequency as well as the magnitude of flooding. Even if the discharge remains the same there will be a shift in magnitude and frequency of flood events. As the Kosi is located in a region known to be tectonically active how might this affect flooding on the Kosi? There is no specific evidence of tectonic events affecting the Kosi. Although the area is active tectonically and there were recent earthquakes, including two that happened very close. However, no direct correlation between river dynamics and tectonics. There are tectonic events in the hinterland resulting in frequent landslides and large scale sediment production that are eventually pushed into the river by heavy rainfall. How old is the Kosi River? At this time we do not know its exact age and are still struggling to find out how old the land form is. We have taken sediment cores down to 50m and the data suggests that the river sediments are at least ~50 thousands years old.
river management. The river dynamics and the flooding are so intricately interconnected that you have to understand the connection between the two to develop a sustainable strategy. In the case of the 2008 flood, the river flowed into a paleochannel which was low capacity and heavily silted; the discharge was not very high but too large for a two metre wide channel resulting in inundation of large areas which were not flooded Summer / Autumn 2014
What is the significance of the Kosi River’s megafan? The Kosi megafan is 200 km wide and has been built through frequent lateral migration of the river distributing sediments over large areas. The Kosi megafan has been built over a geological time period through this process and the river has been swinging from one side to the next over historical time period as well. However, the construction of embankments on both sides of
13
the river during 1955-56 has halted the megafan development. What about local knowledge of the Kosi River? Before the embankments were made people were living there along the Kosi. They knew how much the river would shift and flood etc. So they knew when to leave, when to come back and so on. They were living with the floods in many ways. Now little of that local knowledge remains today. Since the embankments have been made (10km wide), a false sense of security has been created. Moreover, there are still villages within the embankments and they are under constant threat. What can be done about the embankment? You can’t demolish the embankments now because there are big towns where there used to be vacant space. How do you displace all of these people in the river fan? However, the embankment breaching is reasonably predictable and the vulnerable points are known. So, these points need to be monitored well and the embankment as a whole needs to be maintained properly so that the breaches do not occur. How can people monitor the river and mitigate the floods? You have to learn to live with the embankment but you also have to live with the river, or the floods in some form. The alternative solution is reactivating paleochannels to distribute the river’s flow and time it properly so the river never gets to the point where it breaches the embankment. With remote sensing technology you can monitor the river regularly. Previously the river level was moving close to the top of the embankment but no one took any notice.
14
Why are the paleochannels particularly important for flood mitigation? You cannot bring back the pristine condition of the Kosi River but you can at least create a more natural situation. At least 3-4 channels could be re-activated, then you can re-distribute the flow accordingly. That way you don’t need to worry about pressure on the embankment. Creating spillways would help divert the monsoon discharge and assist the local people who have a water scarcity problem. This would benefit populations that do not have access to water at certain times of the year. What if things continue as usual? The situation is already bad because these embankments are 60-70 years old. They are not meant to last for more than 30-40 years. They are costing a lot of money to maintain. There are now plans to make an inner embankment, to further channelise the whole river and make a levee to protect the embankment. This could be disastrous. There are plans to continue to dredge the sediments and keep the channel in the centre. But the flux of the sediment is so high that many of these dredged channels don’t last for more than a season. Even if you dredge that sediment, even if you apply all of the machinery to do that, the big question is where do you keep the sediment? Lately they have been dredging the channel and then leaving the dredged sediments close to the river. Some dredging will have to be done if there is no other solution because the channel has to flow centrally, and can’t be allowed to flow too close to the embankments. What could be done instead? The first thing is that you need to maintain the embankments properly. You need regular monitoring of the channel position and the dynamics of the river itself, and you need to identify those points along the embankment which are going to be vulnerable through time. You need to keep track of the entire dynamics of the river and then keep maintaining these embankments. At the same time you need to create more and more space within the embankments so the river is allowed to flow. That means that limited and strategic dredging is also important, to keep the river away from the IHRR Newsletter
embankments, but sediment management also comes into the picture. You can’t allow this to flow back into the river. There also needs to be a sediment management plan. The sediment could be used to fill up the ground in low lying areas. This will cost a lot of money, but it has to be done, there is no other solution. What about the role of local communities? The government cannot do everything and local communities must develop their own flood defence system. That can only come when you teach or educate them properly and develop some kind of self-defence system. There is an entire generation of people who have not seen the floods, that can’t manage or mitigate floods on their own without support from government. The old wisdom of managing the floods is gone and that needs to be re-activated and expanded in a major way. Educating people to live with the floods is really critical. Anything else you would like to add? There is a need to popularise risk maps. Government needs to understand, if something happens tomorrow, which are the priority areas? So risk maps need to be published widely and must be implemented. We need to understand the
existence of high and low risk areas. Are there risk maps available at a state or district level? Disaster management cannot be done without having the baseline maps. Information on flood-prone areas needs to be catalogued and available for use. Also, you must have an understanding and some sort of mapping of all of the hazards together. We need multi-hazard mapping, using maps of individual hazards independently then merging them together into a single map. Sometimes even seemingly unrelated hazards like flooding and earthquakes can actually be mitigated and planned in such a way that provides a sustainable solution.
Policy Brief A policy brief on sustainable management of flooding on the Kosi River, based on Rajiv’s research, is now available on IHRR’s website: http://bit.ly/1sVSGRl
Silt deposit near Kosi embankment in Bihar
Summer / Autumn 2014
15
New Design for IHRR’s Blog The IHRR blog has moved to a new WordPress site hosted by Durham University. As IHRR’s blog continues to expand its content we decided to switch to a new design that makes our blog more accessible to readers and works well on multiple platforms. We have also incorporated articles from Hazard Risk Resilience magazine which can be easily accessed using mobile devices, to reach a wider audience of readers ‘on the move’. The blog can be accessed at http://ihrrblog.org. Please do let us know what you think and if you’d like to see any particular information on the site; we’re open to new opportunities to create a comprehensive online resource on hazard, risk and resilience.
Latest Posts Anatomy of an earthquake http://bit.ly/YaRqkJ Extreme drought in groundwater supply http://bit.ly/1stFJnE
US
threatens
Costliest human-made disasters http://bit.ly/1rlS9Kx Women in disaster risk reduction http://bit.ly/1vhOrmT Climate change film Chasing Ice screened in Durham http://bit.ly/1vhNmeL
16
Natural hazard event reporting in the global media http://bit.ly/ZewBXb Finding resilience in the lived experiences of women offenders http://bit.ly/1mupV14 Rubbish patches in ocean http://bit.ly/1rnXke6 Noam Chomsky on surviving the 21st century http://bit.ly/1qyf2qb Edward Snowden’s talk on internet security and digital freedom http://bit.ly/1DyEVk6
IHRR Newsletter
Hazard Risk Resilience Magazine Special Issue: Living with Risk The magazine from the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience is available to read online and download. This special issue features research from across Durham University on a diverse variety of topics including UK coastal rock falls, perception of risk in the Middle Ages, reputational risk in the financial sector and GM crops in the developing world. View Online: Download: Mobile:
http://bit.ly/1sI6m7Z http://bit.ly/1nHUJqH http://bit.ly/1t0376o
Recent publications from researchers affiliated with IHRR Sanyal, J., Densmore, A.L., Carbonneau, P. (2014) ‘2D Finite Element Inundation Modelling in Anabranching Channels with Sparse Data: Examination of Uncertainties’. Water Resources Management, 28(8): 2351-2366 Allen, J.G., Coates, G., Trevelyan, J. (2014) ‘Dynamically controlled variable-fidelity modelling for aircraft structural design optimisation. Journal of Aerospace Engineering, 228(8): 1434-1449
Le Blond, J.S., Tomatis, M., Horwell, C.J., et al. (2014) The surface reactivity and implied toxicity of ash produced from sugarcane burning. Environmental Toxicology, 29(5): 503-16 Bentley, R.A., Maddison, E.J., Ranner, P.H., Bissell, J.J., Caiado, C.S., Bhatanacharoen, P., Clark, T., Botha, M., Akinbami, F., Hollow, M., Michie, R., Huntley, B., Curtis, S.E., Garnett, P. ‘Social Tipping Points and Earth systems dynamics’. Front.
Environ.
Sci.
http://journal.frontiersin.org/
Journal/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full
Summer / Autumn 2014
17
IHRR Presents Workshop on ‘The geomorphic effects of large earthquakes’ Durham University, 15-16 May 2014 More than 40 people gathered at the College of St Hild and St Bede, Durham University, on 15 May to discuss the effects of large earthquakes on the form, function, and evolution of the Earth’s surface topography. The workshop was supported by IHRR and the Department of Geography, and involved nine external speakers from the US and Europe, along with about 30 staff, researchers, and students from Durham. On 15 May, the external speakers gave updates of their work on this theme. The presentations covered a number of different aspects of earthquake-triggered landslides, including the distributions of landslide areas and volumes, the controls on landslide location, and the long-term implications of landsliding for mountain range growth and development. Following this were a number of shorter presentations from staff and researchers from Durham and elsewhere. These covered a wide range of topics, from the impacts of earthquakes on suspended-sediment flux and carbon cycling to laboratory investigations of hillslope stability. On 16 May, a smaller group met to discuss the state of the field and to identify outstanding research questions, resulting in a list of promising research themes. The group also discussed the need for a short commentary on the costs of earthquake-triggered landslides, as well as possibilities for a wider research network around the topic. Professor Ranald Michie, Dr Matthew Hollow and Mr Chris Swinson presented their papers (below) at the Annual Conference of the Association of Business Historians in Newcastle for their session ‘Fraud and Failure in Banking’. Hollow, M. ‘Scoundrels or ScamPreneurs: Fraud and innovation on the Fringes of the British Financial Sector, 1900 - 1940’
Dr Louise Bracken and Dr Sim Reaney gave a special seminar at the Insurance Institute of Newcastle on ‘Climate change, flood risk and public engagement’. Their presentations were well received by everyone in attendance (see news item on ‘Partnership with Insurance Institute of Newcastle’ p4. Dr Vincenzo Bavoso presented his paper (coauthored with Professor Roman Tomasic (Tipping Points)) ‘Interest Rate Swaps in the UK and US: A Tale of Two Scandals’ at the annual SLS (Society of Legal Scholars) Conference in Nottingham.
Michie, R. ‘Bank Failures in Britain, 1866 - 2008: Causes, Contagion and Coping’. Swinson, C. ‘The Stock Exchange Crash of 1929: an exercise in crisis management.’
18
IHRR Newsletter
Financial Crime, Corruption and the Global Financial Crisis: What is the role of regulation? A multidisciplinary public workshop at Durham University entitled, ‘Financial Crime, Corruption and the Global Financial Crisis: What is the role of regulation?’ was hosted by IHRR and the Global Policy Journal (http://www.globalpolicyjournal. com/). The event was Chaired by Professor Timothy Clark (Durham Business School) and Dr Eva-Maria Nag (School of Government and International Affairs). It was well-attended by postgraduate students, university staff and members of the wider North East community and financial services sector. The aim of the event was to provide a multidisciplinary investigation into what leads to financial crime in the financial sector, and why punishment is often not enforced. Examples were discussed, relating to the 2007-08 banking crisis and the subsequent financial crisis in Europe, the US and throughout the world, and also lessons from earlier financial crises. Researchers from history, social science and law presented at the event providing diverse perspectives on financial crime and regulation. Researchers from the Tipping Points project who presented were: Professor Ranald Michie (History), Dr Matthew Hollow (History), Dr Philip Garnett (Anthropology and Business School (University of York)) and Dr Vincenzo Bavoso (Law). They were joined by Dr Or Raviv (School of Government and International Affairs) and Professor David Wall (School of Applied Social Sciences). No crime, no punishment Professor Michie and Dr Hollow kicked off the event with their presentation on the history of financial scandal in the UK from the Victorian period onwards. Victorian bankers were seen as respectable and individuals with high standards of probity, in contrast to how bankers are often represented today, especially in the press. Professor Michie emphasised that during the Victorian period there were in fact financial crimes committed, such as theft of deposits by bankers, but that they often were not penalised. This changed after the fall of Overend Gurney Bank in 1866, which failed with huge losses. The bank directors at Overend Gurney had converted the bank to a Limited Liability Company (LLC) in 1865 so that individual directors would not be directly liable for its failure.
Summer / Autumn 2014
In light of the public outcry over this event, other bank officials subsequently found guilty of theft, false accounting and similar crimes were publicly hung, discouraging others from engaging in the same criminal practices. It took 50 years to devise a solution to criminality in the British financial sector. Professor Michie argued that there are lessons to be learned from the Victorians in using the law to deter financial scandal and crime. Matthew also discussed how the UK entered a period of relative financial stability and probity after surviving the 1929 Wall Street crash, but a number of frauds still took place in the ‘shadow banking’ sector. A shadow bank is a company with functions similar to a bank, in that it provides loans, takes deposits and provides other financial services as banks do, but is not part of the formal banking system. A building society is an example of a shadow bank. Accounting procedures were less strict than for banks, with many frauds attributed to false accounting. Dr Hollow also talked about rogue financiers who promoted joint stock enterprises and followed risky strategies by taking out large loans to buy out other banks or finance corporate takeovers. Numerous examples of false accounting also come from the building society sector in the 1960s and 70s. This was mainly due to the fact that regulations were less strict than with banks and ‘there were fewer auditing requirements with building societies’, said Hollow. Professor Michie explained that the Bank of England acted as an unofficial regulator of the banking system. Prior to regulations in 1979 there was a balanced system of self-regulation and state intervention. While a small number of big banks that dominated the financial sector were expected to regulate themselves, this changed after 1979 when the financial sector was liberalised. The banking system became highly competitive and ‘the large banks were making as many risky decisions as the fringe banks’, said Michie. He concluded that the Victorians learned individual responsibility for preventing fraud, however, the banking sector has changed since then. Crimes, if they are identified as such, go unpunished because it is no longer a matter of individual responsibility, but corporate responsibility. Are we back to a state of ‘no crime, no punishment?’, asked Michie and Hollow.
19
Interest rate swap scandals Financial innovation has played a large role in financial scandal in recent years, not only in the case of the 2007-08 banking crisis, but in the bankruptcies of small to medium businesses in the UK and US. Dr Vincenzo Bavoso presented his research on Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) or ‘swaps’ for short. An IRS allows a borrower to adjust and manage fluctuating interest rates, while an investor could speculate on IRSs by gambling on whether the rates would go up or down. Banks in the UK sold swaps with loans, sometimes not allowing the customer to purchase a loan without an IRS. The problem for borrowers and investors is that if the loan was terminated the IRS could continue. In the UK the scandal became a case of ‘misselling’ because banks did not adequately inform their customers of the terms and risks of an IRS. In the US these financial products were central to the bankruptcies of municipalities and some banks advised them that investing in swaps was the best hedging strategy for controlling interest rates. However, when interest rates were lowered in 2008 due to the banking crisis, unsustainable payments were made on the swaps, causing government bankruptcies. Dr Bavoso argues that these scandals involving the creation of innovative financial products have resulted from the emergence of large and powerful private companies that resist regulations and promote behaviour that leads to breaching the law. Moreover, financial scandals in innovative financial markets are a result of excessive risk-taking and cultural exuberance in the financial professions. One key question explored in this paper is whether regulation can change that prevailing culture in financial markets and institutions, especially given the lack of democratic legitimacy of some regulators at the international level. Dr Bavoso continued that financial institutions and markets need to be seen from a social perspective, especially regarding the greater impacts they have on society, and that different regulatory goals were needed, focused on prevention. Currently none of the phases of financial innovation account for public interest in any way. Since investors are usually interested in financial products that can give them better cash flows and allow them to take more risk, their values may appear to be at odds with those of society.
20
After the crisis Dr Raviv argued in his presentation that it is not so much the problem with the regulations in place, but the lack of enforcement and punishment of the financial sector. Or said while no arrests were made for causing the financial crisis ‘there has been a dramatic criminalisation of the protest movement’, for speaking out against the structures of power they blame for allowing the global financial crisis to take place. ‘Bankers are happy for the problem to be with regulation, because it is therefore not their problem that the financial crisis occurred’, said Raviv. He argued that changing the regulatory frameworks distracts from the problem at hand that must be dealt with through ‘enforcement, compliance and supervision’. Market actors largely evaded regulatory rules, so they could not be criminalised. There are loopholes within the financial system that have been exploited including regulatory arbitrage. Dr Raviv also presented examples of important differences in financial regulation in the US and Europe. The sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US could not have taken place in Europe because of laws in place that prevented a bank from revealing private information about their customers to a third party, but banks in Europe would find other ways to lend more money in other ways through regulatory arbitrage. Some banks purchased products called ‘credit default swaps’ to hedge their risk if the loan was unpaid, but would allow them to keep the asset. However, banks were not insured against inability to pay mortgages that were in default. Dr Raviv highlighted examples of how enforcement is being taken more seriously in the financial sector. The number of investigations into financial crime has grown by 50 per cent in comparison to 2011-12, but he said that research in this area is problematic because little public data are available. There currently needs to be more information in the public domain to better understand the scale of enforcement that has taken place. Regulatory challenges of e-crime Professor Wall presented on a recent challenge for regulation through online thefts that are global in nature and hidden to victims that they steal from. David gave the hypothetical example of a ‘perfect e-crime’ where 0.49p was taken from each person’s account in the entire world. Since the amount stolen from each individual is so small, it prosecution would not IHRR Newsletter
be justified as in the public interest. The crime could be committed using a malware script that included terms and conditions that would make it technically legal, but Professor Wall cautioned that for the curious ‘it shouldn’t be tried at home’. Although such a crime might seem individually insignificant it would generate a large total, suspicious transactions are monitored by banks and law enforcement officials. E-crime often tends to be small and low impact, but in aggregate it costs millions in losses. In the case of banking it is difficult to say how much of a problem e-crime poses because banks will often not report these crimes to the police as it reflects badly on their public image. E-crime can happen anywhere at any time, and some researchers claim that it ‘democratises crime’ as, potentially, nearly anyone could commit virtual robberies or frauds. In response to e-crime Professor Wall argued that it is incompatible with the criminal justice system and that its non-routine nature is not policed. What is needed is strategic intelligence for small thefts in order to find the individuals who are committing these types of crimes, instead of making more laws. Similar to elite financial crimes committed by bankers, enforcement is key to bringing cyber criminals to justice. Financial regulation meets complexity Computer scientist and biologist Dr Philip Garnett considered how the global financial system could in some cases be too complex to regulate because of the knock-on effects regulation has on the system as a whole. In such a complex system, regulation may in some cases have no effect on the financial system whatsoever. Instead of focusing on individual parts of a system, complex systems theory sees the system as a whole and that the sum of its parts can have emergent effects that may be too difficult to predict. In the case of a bank crash it could be that the banking system is moving along a particular trajectory over a long period of time and, regardless of what regulation is put in place, this will continue until the system fails. Dr Garnett called this ‘waiting to fail’ and there may be good reasons to think that financial systems may behave in this way especially in light of historical bank data. ‘It’s possible that the 2008 crisis came from nowhere, you could make post-hoc justifications for why a crisis might have happened but it’s really difficult in a complex system to actually define causality’, said Summer / Autumn 2014
Garnett. In banking history in the UK regulatory measures came and went without having much effect on the systematic decline of the financial sector in the 19th century. One of the most difficult things about modelling complex systems is that it is extremely challenging to predict how a certain system will behave in reality. In response to a question about whether or not financial systems are actually that complex because for so long many continued without failure, Dr Garnett said that globalisation has been a key factor in making financial systems more complex in the first place. In the past, mostly national scale banking systems may have been easier to control through regulation, but because of globalisation it has become far more unpredictable and risky. So what kind of regulation is needed to govern a global financial system that is too complex for us to understand? Dr Garnett suggested two potential approaches from complex systems theory. One way is make the financial system less complex and simplify it so it is more likely to be regulated and possibly less likely to fail. The problem with doing this on a global scale of course is that it would demand a simple set of rules that everyone would have to follow. Not only is this unlikely but would still fail to address the problem of complexity because even a system governed by a simple set of rules has emergent properties. Another perhaps more likely scenario is to have a financial system that is ‘complex-adaptive’ meaning that it is selfregulating and responsive to what is happening outside of it. If such an approach were taken to regulating the global financial system banks could account for what their neighbours were doing and understand how their actions would feedback into the system. This could lead to a more stable financial system but companies would have to be responsible for their own stability. ‘This approach may offer a way to build a complex adaptive approach that takes some of that regulatory requirement out of the hands of the system itself, in order for it to persist and prosper’, said Garnett. The presentations were followed by lively, interactive discussion with contributors that addressed the role of complexity in finance and how it could be regulated in the future, amongst other topics presented.
21
Visitors Tony and Barbara Laithwaite who have made significant donations to support the excellent facilities at the Institute of Hazard Risk and Resilience, were welcomed to IHRR while they were visiting in July to receive Honourary Degrees from Durham University.
Goodbyes take up the position of Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Research and Enterprise at the University of East Anglia. All of us at IHRR are very grateful to Dave for all his contributions to the work of the Institute and we wish him all the best for the future.
Professor David Petley is a founding member of the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, and has been behind much of the work of the Institute since its inception, particularly through his work on landslides through the International Landslide Centre (ILC), and his leadership of research on coastal monitoring in the UK. During his time in IHRR Dave has championed leading research programmes on various geohazards throughout the world. His work has assisted communities who are exposed to these hazards in preparing for and mitigating the risks, helping to prevent loss of life and damage. Through the ILC, particularly The Landslide Blog, Dave has raised the international profile of landslide hazards, especially those that cause fatalities, and has been highly influential in working with governments and practitioners in hazard management. As Wilson Chair in Hazard and Risk he has set a new standard for interdisciplinary research on hazard and risk, and has collaborated with a wide range of disciplines in his research. Dave served as Executive Director of IHRR from 2011-2012, and as a member of its management and advisory boards. In the wider University, Dave has been Deputy Head of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Health (2007-2011), Dean of Research (2012-2014) and Dean of Global Engagement (2013-2014). Dave is moving to
22
Dr Eleanor Maddison has worked in Work Package 1 of the Tipping Points project on Neo-Glacial Transitions in the North Atlantic with Professor Antony Long and Dr Sarah Woodroffe (Geography), Dr Helen Ranner (School of Biology) and Professor Brian Huntley (School of Biology). This work package focuses on the cause of mid-Holocene rapid cooling between 4,000-6,000 years ago. Eleanor used non-biting midges (chironomids) and other biomarkers to construct temperature records of this cooling period to investigate what the climate was like in the past. An introduction to her research is available on the Tipping Points website: https://www.dur.ac.uk/ihrr/ tippingpoints/northatlanticseaboard/climate/. Eleanor has taken up a new post with the Department of Geography as Deputy Laboratory Manager. IHRR wishes Eleanor all the best in her new post. IHRR Newsletter
Future Events Seminar - Exploring Disaster Responses in the Philippines 20th October 2014, 13:00 to 14:30, W007, Dept of Geography, Dr Nancy Parreño, Philippine Women’s University in Manila and Dr Inès V. Danao, Asian Social Institute in Manila A seminar considering lessons to be drawn from the disaster risk reduction and management responses to Hurricane Haiyan in 2013; the 1990 Baguio Earthquake; 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption; and 2004 Mudfloods caused by Typhoon Winnie in the Philippines will be given by Dr Nancy Parreño from the Philippine Women’s University and Dr Inès V. Danao from the Asian Social Institute. While both visitors have been involved in supporting victim survivors of these disasters, Dr Parreño will highlight community risk reduction and resilience building in the aftermath of such disasters and Dr Dano will emphasise governance issues, the creation of child friendly spaces in evacuation centres and critical incident stress debriefing. This visit springs from links made with Professor Lena Dominelli at Durham during the aftermath of Hurricane Haiyan (known in the Philippines as Typhoon Yolanda). Their visit is made possible by a generous charitable donation to IHRR. Both will also present a seminar of interest to practitioners working in disaster settings in SASS on 23 Oct 2014. Contact ihrr.admin@durham.ac.uk for more information about this event or if you are not a member of Durham University, but would like to attend this seminar. ESRC Festival of Social Science - Tipping Points in Health and Society 6th November 2014, 19:30 to 21:00, Durham Town Hall, Market Place, Durham City, Professor Michael Goldstein and Dr Camila Caiado, Dept of Mathematical Sciences Health problems, from cardiovascular disease to the AIDS epidemic, present major social challenges that require new forms of intervention in health care. Modelling health problems provides a way to help meet those challenges. How can risk prediction models provide early warning signals for the onset of disease? How can Summer / Autumn 2014
health models help increase life expectancy after surgery? Are there health ‘tipping points’ that can be predicted or detected before the onset of disease? These questions along with others will be addressed by leading researchers from Durham University’s Tipping Points project funded by the Leverhulme Trust, who will present their current research on human health, combining expertise from social science, statistics and medical research. In this talk you will learn about how modelling individual and population health can tackle some of the biggest health problems affecting society today, and the uncertainty and complexity surrounding public health issues. The event is open to all and free but places are limited. Please register to attend this event by sending an email to ihrr.admin@durham.ac.uk. A drinks reception will follow the event. ESRC Festival of Social Science website: http:// w w w. e s rc . a c . u k / n e w s - a n d - e ve n t s / e ve n t s / festival/ Please visit the Tipping Points website for further details about the project: https://www.dur. ac.uk/ihrr/tippingpoints/.
23
Contact Details: Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience Durham University Lower Mountjoy Durham DH1 3LE, UK Tel: +44 (0)191 3342257 Fax: +44 (0)191 3341801
Director of IHRR: Professor Sarah Curtis Editor: Brett Cherry Design: Cartographic Unit, Department of Geography