WORLD AND OTHER SYSTEMS: A CHALLENGE FOR WICI
George Francis WICI Seminar Series April 14, 2009
COMPLEX SYSTEMS [ A “gestalt”] Developed from General (Open) Systems Theory [von Bertalanffy] ____________________
• Self-organization – morphogenesis through internal changes & feedbacks along with external factors • Emergent properties – not discernible in “parts” alone • Driven by exergy dissipation – non-equilibrium thermodynamics & dissipative structures • Multiple domains of stabilities (“attractors”) – can reconfigure (“flip”) rather suddenly (“bifurcations”) • Hierarchical organization (systems within systems) – discontinuous across scales
COMPLEX SYSTEMS [ A “gestalt”] Developed from General (Open) Systems Theory [von Bertalanffy] __________________
• Development trajectories – evolutionary, structured by relatively small set of processes operating across scales • Initial conditions of place strongly trajectories – have individual histories
influence
• Phase cycles – including collapses and starting over • Inherent indeterminancies – contingencies and propensities • Large realms of uncertainty – scenarios not predictions
APPROACHES TO COMPLEX SYSTEMS STUDIES Processes for Understanding and Action: Sense Making - Epistemology Natural Science Origin
“Post-Normal Science” (J. Ravetz, S. Funtowicz)
Uncertainty high, stakes high, need for decisions urgent, little useable science Extended peer review
Social Science Origin
“Applied Methods for Ecosystem Sustainability and Health” (D. Walter-Toews) Multiple perspectives & methods Cross-cultural settings & participants
“Artificial Worlds”
“Second Order Cybernetics”
(Santa Fe Institute)
(F. Geyer)
Algorithms for deterministic chaos Agent-based emergent behaviours
Observing observed systems Reflexivity and “double-looped learning”
APPROACHES TO COMPLEX SYSTEMS STUDIES Development of Conceptual Frameworks: Conceptual Analyses Natural Science Origin
Social Science Origin
“Ecosystem Approach”
“Human Strategies in Complexity”
[J. Kay, T. Allen]
[A. Giddens, C. Fuchs]
Non-equilibrium thermodynamics - flows of exergy, materials and “information” New structures emerge and dissipate exergy more efficiently
Social structures viewed as recurring patterns of behaviours created by people following rule systems Structuration of society by dialectical processes
“Ascendency” (sic) [R. Ulanowicz]
Dynamics of system propensities that guide “ascendency” Balance between adaptations and maintaining “overhead”
“Societal Autopoesis” [N. Luhmann]
Society as independent functional communications networks Each network is self-referential for filtering information
APPROACHES TO COMPLEX SYSTEMS STUDIES Comparative Case Studies - Patterns and Comparisons: Inductive Methods Natural Science Origin
Social Science Origin
“Panarchy and Resilience”
“World Systems Analyses”
[C.S. Holling, L. Gunderson]
[I. Wallerstein, C. Chase-Dunn]
Four-phase ecosystem cycles operating at different scales Resilience and adaptive management key to sustainability
Rise and demise of whole societies at various times over many millennia Global capitalism as a historical system in a world of nation-states
“Self-Organized Criticality” [P. Bak]
Systems self-organize into poised critical states Minor disturbances lead to a power-law distribution in severity of consequences
“Post-Fordism and The Market State” [P. Jessop]
Embedding and dis-embedding of capitalism in the larger society Contradictions and conflicts from neoliberal economics and neo-conservative politics since 1970s
Some Observations Like all classifications, one can lump and split categories Cross-cutting themes could be added, e.g. critical systems thinking (“reflexivity”) for awareness (e.g. G. Midgley), implications of “social epistemology” (S. Fuller), and importance of ethics (B. Flyvbjerg) Rise and demise of different approaches to CST over time - some become institutionalized, others disband - why? Evolutionary change, e.g. closure of the divide between natural sciences/mathematics and social sciences/history approaches New applications, e.g. ‘the complexity of governance and the governance of complexity” (B. Jessop)
World-Systems Analyses
Main Interpretations and Perspectives
THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD SYSTEM [Based on writings of Immanuel Wallerstein, Christopher Chase-Dunn, and their various colleagues]
A SINGLE INTEGRATED GLOBAL ECONOMY
Highly integrated and also highly differentiated in terms of the division of work within and among different economic sectors (e.g. production, marketing, trade, finance)
Capitalist - production is for exchange value (vs use value) to accumulate material wealth.
Corporations as the main and most effective organizational forms, but with varying degrees of State involvement - complicated patterns of ownership and control over commodity and service chains.
THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD SYSTEM [Based on writings of Immanuel Wallerstein, Christopher Chase-Dunn, and their various colleagues]
A WORLD OF NATION-STATES
Territorial control exercised by governments through military, police, and administrative bureaucracies.
“Nation” as a cultural concept based on ethnicity, language, religion, shared histories.
Doctrine of “sovereignty” - live and let live among nation-states
THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD SYSTEM [Based on writings of Immanuel Wallerstein, Christopher Chase-Dunn, and their various colleagues]
HIERARCHY OF CORE THROUGH TO PERIPHERY
Spatial and functional zonations into “core, semi-periphery and periphery” relations among nation-states in the global economic structure - also at smaller scales within nation-states.
Maintained by rule systems enforced for trade, investment/debt creation, policies of governments and corporations.
Elements of global class structure emerging.
Persistence of this structure questions both “developmentalism” and “market fundamentalism” as strategies for universal prosperity.
DYNAMICS OF THE WORLD-SYSTEM A large number of factors influence the development of the different societies that make up the world-system. They include population growth, relative access to resources, social organization, cultural differences, technological innovations, and environmental constraints. Causes and consequences are not easily sorted out. Changes in one set of factors lead to other changes that may create new shortages, tensions or contradictions in social systems. Within the range of historical and geographic settings, the major “driving forces” are considered to be: For CAPITALISM * “unceasing accumulation of wealth” * the entire function and rationale for corporations • *there is no satiation point - “Grow or Die”.
DYNAMICS OF THE WORLD-SYSTEM For POLITICS * struggle for domination over the State apparatus for control occurs within/among political parties/groups, the military, police, and administrative bureaucracies For BOTH • continuous rivalries and conflicts * episodic periods of social unrest, rebellions, and wars BUT The wealthy need the service of the powerful to protect their wealth and facilitate its continuous accumulation. The powerful need the wealthy to sustain their command over the state apparatus for territorial control.
ANTISYSTEMIC MOVEMENTS Long history in the world of “spontaneous rebellions” against oppression from hierarchical, exploitative systems In Europe from about 1848, “antisystemic movements” became organized on a more permanent basis Social movements rebelled against capitalist oppression National movements rebelled against particular ethnic classes who controlled the State Liberation movements rebelled against colonial status under imperial powers
ANTISYSTEMIC MOVEMENTS Generally there were two sequential goals – first gain influence or control over the State, then implement needed social-economic changes Over the next century (to ~mid 1950s) there were many (partial) successes in achieving the first goal, but mixed to poor success for the second From about 1968 on, new generations of people rebelled against injustices associated with global capitalism and the power and bureaucracy of States Perceived oppressors were the “density” of institutions constituting the interstate system that are integrated with global capitalism (and included the old antisystemic movements)
ANTISYSTEMIC MOVEMENTS
Protests are in the names of freedom and recognition for all manner of social justice organizations, speaking on behalf of many different kinds of disadvantaged groups in society Little or no interest in taking over institutions Disillusion has been amplified since the 1990s by use of information technologies that can link groups throughout the world Contradictions vividly exemplified by the “World Economic Forum” heavily guarded corporate, political, and class elites along with collaborating organizations proclaiming “There IS No Alternative” vs the “World Social Forum” festive open assemblies of alternative globalization groups proclaiming “Another World IS Possible”
“PHASE CYCLES” OF INTEREST IN WORLD-SYSTEMS Cyclic phenomena are not regular periodicities, nor smooth incremental changes. Instead they are a sequence of identifiable phases over time in which one phase for some duration gives rise to conditions under which the next can emerge. “LONG WAVE” ECONOMIC (KONDRATIEFF) CYCLES
Some 50-60 year periods of expansion and contractions in the global economy.
LONG SYSTEMIC CYCLES OF ACCUMULATION
A century or more process of shifting the location of core economies to other regions of the world. LONG CYCLES IN WORLD POLITICS
Rise and demise of “hegemonic” powers over a century or more - major wars as a critical phase in these cycles.
LONG WAVE PULSES OF ECONOMIC EXPANSION AND CONTRACTION [KONDRATIEFF CYCLES, ~50 - 60 YEARS] “A-PHASES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH:
“B-PHASES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH:
New suites of technological innovations being adopted and ultimately diffused widely
Saturation of markets with the innovations or exhaustion of new resources
New investments in new markets
Increased competition in markets for the innovations resulting in lower rates of returns (profits)
Expanded access to resources in other geographic regions (semi-periphery & periphery) Changes in organizational development that promote greater productivity or efficiencies
Less demand and investment, recessions & higher unemployment Decline provides incentive to explore new forms of innovation or restructuring to restore profit levels
LONG SYSTEMIC CYCLES OF WEALTH ACCUMULATION [Giovanni Arrighi (1995). The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power and the Origin of Our Times. London: Verso.]
1) New cycles of wealth accumulation get started through financing provided
by institutions in the old core economies.
Rates of return obtained by investing in the new productive capacities in other regions of the world surpass those obtained by re-investing in the old core economies.
In this way, the new region of accumulation evolves from within the old one (e.g. British financing of developments in North America in the 19th century).
LONG SYSTEMIC CYCLES OF WEALTH ACCUMULATION [Giovanni Arrighi (1995). The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power and the Origin of Our Times. London: Verso.]
2) The consolidation and further development of a new region of wealth accumulation comes from an expansion of the entire world-economy (from the new investments).
Economic problems within the fully developed (“old”) region of wealth accumulation also create space for, or are deepened by, the emergence of competing/alternative regions.
LONG SYSTEMIC CYCLES OF WEALTH ACCUMULATION [Giovanni Arrighi (1995). The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power and the Origin of Our Times. London: Verso.]
3) A strong new region for wealth accumulation emerges while the old one coasts along for awhile (several decades+) on its aging infrastructures, unresponsive institutions, (and sense of cultural superiority) until it enters economic decline.
A “signal crisis” marks the turning point. The financial system is exporting more capital to elsewhere, investing much more into financial services, and engaging in increased speculation/ gambling with the resources it controls.
This is eventually followed by a “terminal crisis” that marks the end of the old long cycle of wealth creation and the launch of the other one that had been building up from “inside” the old.
LONG CYCLES IN WORLD POLITICS [Based on George Modelski’s writings on “Evolutionary World Politics”]
These are non-linear processes that comprise four phases, each lasting about one generation, i.e. ~25-30 years each (or 100-120 years total)
HEGEMONIC PHASE
Politically powerful States and their allies emerge as survivors from major war(s) that established them as new powers. They carry out a “winning agenda” that sets conditions for peace and prosperity and institutional rules to enforce it. DELEGITIMATION PHASE
Gradually occurs as new regions of long-term wealth accumulation build up. Old post-war institutions for peace and order become ineffective for dealing with new global “agenda-change” issues and priorities. New coalitions begin to form around new priorities.
LONG CYCLES IN WORLD POLITICS [Based on George Modelski’s writings on “Evolutionary World Politics”]
These are non-linear processes that comprise four phases, each lasting about one generation, i.e. ~25-30 years each (or 100-120 years total)
DE-CENTRALIZATION PHASE
Variety of proposed goals, priorities and strategies for changing the world are put forth. Reflect competing model societies. Diffusion of power and influence encourages some new coalitions to mount a challenge to the old hegemonic power(s). “MACRO-DECISION” PHASE
Economic competition in world markets, cultural competition among ideologies for different ideal societies, and military skirmishes in tension zones. At some point these erupt into major global wars, that become the worst ever up to that particular phase.
INTENSIFICATION OF MAJOR TRENDS OR “TRAJECTORIES” IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD-SYSTEM
•
Human population growth, heading towards 7 billion +.
•
Increase in number of nation-states.
•
Increase in number and scale of operations of multi-lateral institutions and international NGOs.
•
Growing size, number, and influence of corporations over all major economic sectors in the integrated global economy (creating major “corporate empires”).
•
Creation of international institutions to serve corporate interests in the global economy (transformed IMF, World Bank, WTO).
INTENSIFICATION OF MAJOR TRENDS OR “TRAJECTORIES” IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD-SYSTEM
•
Global capitalist economy has expanded and deepened commodity relations into all spheres of life and community.
•
Increasing capital intensity of production and resulting displacement of labour.
•
One world financial system operating all the time.
•
Increasing income gaps between core and periphery states, and between rich and poor within states.
•
Environmental consequences occur at all spatial scales up to and including the entire biosphere, and the reality of constraints posed to world-system are widely apparent (water, energy, global climate change).
“THE GOVERNANCE OF COMPLEXITY AND THE COMPLEXITY OF GOVERNANCE” [Bob Jessop]
PREDICAMENTS
Shifting power relationships and porous boundaries. From nation-states to the global scale and international organizations, to the private sector, and to major urban regions in the “new economy”. Pervasive sense of vulnerability - “risk society” dependent upon large-scale and highly centralized technologies that are “unforgiving” of error. Organizational interdependencies & “turbulence” as organizations get in each others way all the time. Functional and reciprocal interdependencies lead to tangled hierarchies in administrative systems, “externalities” in socio-economic systems, and to critical environmental impacts on ecosystems. For starters!
WHITHER WICI?