An Infotrak Harris Poll On Kenyans’ Voting Intentions for the August 4th Referendum on the Proposed New Constitution
A Collaborative Effort Between Infotrak Research & Consulting & CMD; Center for Multi party Democracy July 2010
Introduction •
With 11 days to the Referendum, both Yes and No camps have upped their campaign tactics in an attempt to garner more voters into their fold. The past three weeks have seen a both camps unleashing their top brass in efforts to lure and convince Voters. The predominant “No” Zones of Eastern and Rift Valley were over the weekend transversed by the Yes team led by His Excellency the President. The No team similarly visited the Yes strongholds led by William Ruto , Retired President Moi and the Clergy. This notwithstanding, the Committee of Experts and various Civil Society groups and indeed the Media have also been carrying our civic education throughout the country.
•
It is against this background that an Infotrak Harris Poll was conducted in Conjunction with Center for Multi Party Democracy; CMD.
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The fieldwork covering 2500 respondents countrywide was carried out between Friday July 16th and Monday July 19th 2010, making it the most recent Poll.
The Methodology
The Methodology q
A sample of 2500 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan registered voter population of 12,656,451 translating into a margin of error of -/+ 2 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all provinces of Kenya.
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The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size with the registered voter distribution as the weighting factor. The sample was further split into key demographic groups i.e. by region, age and gender. The key administrative boundary was district of residence which was further split into both urban and rural.
q
Sampling technique adopted was purposive, random and systematic. This was done so as to ensure that that every respondent who was 18 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate. From the same sample, specific attention was given to both male and female living in urban and rural Kenya
q
Fieldwork was conducted through face to face interviews
The Sampling Points Province Nairobi
Region Nairobi S. W. Coast
Coast North Coast Central Eastern Eastern Lower Eastern Nyeri Central Thika North Rift Rift Valley
South Rift Central Rift Kakamega
Western Bungoma Nyanza Central Nyanza South Nyanza North Eastern
Garrissa Ijaara
Sampling points All constituencies Mvita Matuga Garsen Malindi Manyatta N. Imenti Kitui Central Machakos Town Nyeri Town Kirinyaga Central Kiambaa Kangema Eldoret North Tinderet Bureti Narok North Nakuru Town Baringo Central Lurambi Butere Funyula Kanduyi Kisumu Town East Rangwe Nyaribari Chache Migori Dujis
The Electoral Register that guided the Sampling Frame
Province
Region
Nairobi
Nairobi Region
1306345
North Coast
329958
South West Coast
662365
Nyeri Region
832681
Thika Region
1119856
Nyanza central
827943
South Nyanza
883802
Bungoma
622891
Kakamega
734911
North Rift
1162207
South Rift
936190
Central Rift
976339
Upper Eastern
132251
Central Eastern
860204
Lower Eastern
1036409
Coast
Have all the provinces Central Nyanza Western
Rift Valley
Eastern
North Eastern Total
Voter population
Garissa Ijara Rgeion
76563
Wajir Mandera
155536 12656451
Margin of Error explained
q
Margin of error decreases as the sample size increases, but only upto a certain point.
q
A very small sample, such as 50 respondents, has about a 14 percent margin of error while a sample of 1,000 has a margin of error of 3 percent.
q
By doubling the sample to 2,000, the margin of error only decreases from +/-3 percent to +/- 2 percent and +/-4 percent for a sample size of 4000.
q
This illustrates that there are diminishing returns when trying to reduce the margin of error by increasing the sample size.
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A 95 percent level of confidence is usually the industry standard.
Margin of Error Illustration
16.0 Margin of Error 14.0
13.9
12.0 9.8
8.0 6.9 6.0 4.0 2.0
4.9
3.7
3.3 2.7 3.0
2.2 2.5
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.2 1.1 1.0
0.0 50 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 3000 4000 4500 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
Variability
10.0
Sample size
The Key Findings
Finding 1: Majority of Kenyans who have registered as voters intend to participate in the August 4th referendum
98% of registered voters intend to participate in the August 4th referendum
No specific reason
1%
To show patriotism
1%
Do you intend to participate in the August 4th referendum on the proposed new constitution of Kenya? NO 2%
Base 2500 Curiosity/my first time/have a voters card
2%
Influence by church leaders
5%
Influence by civic educators
7%
Influence by politicians
8%
To reject the new constitution
YES 98%
21%
Influence by family/friend/colleagues
Majority of those who intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum indicated that they supported reforms and therefore a new constitution
q
A further 30% stated that by participating in this referendum, they would in effect be exercising their democratic right
25%
To exercise my democratic right
30%
For change/reforms
80%
To get a new constitution
You have indicated that you intend to vote in the August referendum, what are your reasons?
q
82% 0%
20%
40%
Base 2450
60%
80%
100%
Lack of registration documents is the main undoing for those who do not intend to participate in the forthcoming referendum
The current constitution has been serving us well
5%
I don’t trust our religious leaders
Majority of those who do not intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum cited lack of registration documents (39%)
q
A further 29% indicated that they do not trust the proposed new constitution
11%
The referendum will be a recipe of chaos and further division for Kenyans
19%
I don’t trust our political leaders
23%
Do not trust the proposed constitution
29%
No registration documents Base 50
q
You have indicated that you DO NOT intend to vote in the August 4th referendum, what are your reasons?
39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Finding 2: Approximately three in four of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum are indeed aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya
75% of Kenyans indicated that they were aware of the General Contents of the proposed Draft Constitution. This signifies a growth of 9% in Awareness in comparison to the 66% registered in May. q
q
q
In other words ž of Kenyans are generally aware about something contained in the draft. They don’t have to necessarily know everything, neither does the awareness have to have stemmed from personal reading of the draft. The awareness emanates from various sources for instance the media, friends and family, civil society, politicians and even personal reading of the draft. Awareness has grown by 9% over the past month. This can be attributed to increased impetus in Civic Education by COE and Civil Society and campaigns by the proponents and opponents of the draft.
Are you aware of the general contents of the proposed Draft Constitution?
May 2010 N=1200
No 25%
July 2010 N=2500
NO, 34%
Yes 75%
YES, 66 %
Awareness Explained q
Awareness is generally higher amongst:
Youth as compared to the older people
77% of Kenyans 18-35 years are aware of the general contents of the draft in comparison to 45% of those 55 years and above
Men as compared to Women
Men recorded 75% awareness whilst women recorded 70% awareness. This is a marked shift from the 62% awareness in May.
Urban as compared to Rural dwellers
79% of urban dwellers are aware whilst 68% of rural dwellers are aware. The overall comparison is 75:68
More educated as compared to less educated
88% of the highly educated folk are aware as compared to 65% of those with up to secondary school education
Base 2500
Approximately three quarters of Kenyans registered voters in the August 4th referendum are aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution q q
Majority of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum reported awareness on the general contents of the proposed constitution The lowest incidences of awareness were recorded in Eastern and Rift Valley provinces JULY 2010
100% 80%
84%
73%
YES
83%
82%
Base 2500
NO
70%
85%
60% 40%
27%
16%
17%
18%
CENTRAL
NYANZA
WESTERN
20%
37%
30%
75%
69%
63%
31%
25%
15%
0% NAIROBI
MAY 2010 100% 80%
YES 79%
70%
COAST
78% 64%
55% 36%
35% 21%
Total
Base 1200
77%
65% 30%
NORTH EASTERN
NO
60% 40%
EASTERN RIFT VALLEY
66%
63% 45%
38%
23%
34% 22%
20% 0% NAIROBI CENTRAL NYANZA WESTERN
Variance [YES]
COAST
EASTERN
RIFT VALLEY
NORTH EASTERN
Total
Nairobi
Central
Nyanza
Western
Coast
Eastern
R. Valley
N. Eastern
Total
+3%
+19%
+4%
+5%
+6%
+8%
+6%
+7%
+9%
30% of Kenyans stated that they had actually read the Draft Constitution. Yes, I have read the contents of the Draft Constitution‌..
May
June
+/-%
26%
30%
+4%
Those who have read the draft can be described as follows:
AGE: Between Ages of 18-34 years Which constitutes 68% GENDER: Primarily Males at 68%. Only 38% Females have read the draft REGION: Mainly Urban dwellers at 55% ACADEMICS: Mainly College & University graduates at 52%
Finding 3: Media is still the main source of information on the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya
61% of Kenyans who are aware of the contents of the proposed constitution indicated that got their information from the Media. How did you get to know the contents of the proposed new constitution? q
The media remains the most effective source of information on the general contents of the draft. Other than Media Personal reading , Politicians and Religious leaders are the most important. 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
July 2010
61% 40%
Media
22%
Read the Politicians proposed Constitution
Base 1837
20%
17%
15%
11%
Religious leaders
Religious meetings
Civic Education
Family/ Friends
10%
8%
Public rally Community meetings/ baraza
100%
Base 792
80% 60%
55%
May 2010
39%
40%
14%
20%
13%
12%
Religious leaders
Friends
5%
4%
Civic Education
Family
0% Media
Variance
Read the proposed constitution
Politicians
Media
Self read
Politicians
Religious leaders
Family/Friends
Civic education
+6%
+1%
+8%
+7%
-5%
+10%
Finding 4: 65% of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum indicated they would vote YES for the proposed constitution of Kenya
Most Kenyans have become decisive on their voting intentions come August 4th . Approximately 10% are still undecided on how they will vote
q
Majority of Kenyans who would participate in the forthcoming referendum exercise stated that they would vote YES (65%) while 25% indicated they would vote NO if the referendum was to be held today
q
On the other hand, the undecided constitute 10% of the survey respondents
q
Eastern and Rift Valley recorded the lowest incidence with regard to voting YES for the proposed new constitution
If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote? Don't know, 10% No, 25%
Yes, 65%
100% Yes
84% 80%
73%
No
88%
Don't know
70%
68%
65%
60%
60%
57% 51% 37%
40% 22% 20% 5%
28%
24%
22% 10%
11%
5%
19% 21%
25%
21%
6%
6%
10%
9% 2%
0%
Nairobi
Base 2450
Central
Nyanza
Western
Coast
Eastern
R. Valley
N. Eastern
Total
The undecided voters are increasingly reducing as they make up their minds on how they want to vote. The Yes Vote has gained 2% since May whilst the No vote
100%
July Poll
May Poll
80% 65%
63%
60%
40% 25%
21%
20%
16% 10%
0% Yes
Base 2450
No
Don't know
Whilst the percentage of men & women who intend to vote Yes is relatively close, twice as many women (67%) than men (33%) are still undecided If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?
100% Male
80% 60%
Female 67%
51%
49%
53%
47% 33%
40% 20% 0% Yes
No
Don’t know
q
More males than females indicated that they would vote YES for the proposed new constitution of Kenya if the referendum was to be held today
q
Twice as many women (67%) than men (33%) are still undecided
Base 2450
Majority of those who would vote YES for the proposed new constitution if a referendum was held today are the youth If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you vote?
100% Vote Yes 80%
73%
Vote No
Not sure
72%
67%
65% 59%
60%
46% 44% 40% 31% 24% 20% 9%
25%
24%
20% 7%
10%
10%
10%
4%
0% 18-24 years
Base 2450
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
54+ years
Total
Voting patterns by religion
100%
85% 80% 72%
60%
65%
63%
60%
Vote Yes Vote No Don't Know
40% 30%
28% 25%
20%
15% 10%
10%
9%
13%
10%
5% 0% Catholic
Protestant
Muslim
Others
Total
Reasons for their intended voting patterns Reasons for voting YES Equality in paying of taxes It is a decision of the majority Fair representation
Reasons for voting NO
20%
Inclusion of Kadhi's courts
32%
21%
Elimination of provincial administration
48%
49% Limitation of land holding acreage
Bill of rights I am conversant and generally pleased with the contents of the ‌ I am for change/reforms/progres s Proposed constitution is better than the current one
53%
51% Permits abortion
59%
61%
63%
71% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%
Unfair representation
65%
It is generally a bad constitution
73%
0%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Reasons for liking or disliking the proposed constitution
Reasons for liking the proposed new constitution
Incidence level %
Devolution of power & decentralization of resources
75
Land issues/allocation
51
Equality in in paying of taxes in the public service
33
Representation of people
53
Ministers not to be members of parliament/lean cabinet
5
Vetting of judges in the judiciary
7
Gender equality
9
Executive presidency with no prime minister
8
Dual citizenship
11
Others
2
Reasons for disliking the proposed new constitution
Incidence level %
Legalization of abortion
52
Inclusion of Kadhi’s Courts
24
Unfair representation
50
Elimination of provincial administration
42
Limitation of land holding acreage
49
Others
4
Demographics
REGION
100%
80%
60%
40% 24% 20%
15% 10%
14%
16% 11%
8% 2%
0% Nairobi
Base 2500
Central
Nyanza
Western
Coast
Eastern
R. Valley
N. Eastern
GENDER
Female 49%
Male 51%
Base 2500
AGE
100%
80%
60% 39%
40%
26%
21% 20%
10% 4%
0% 18-24 years
Base 2500
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
54+ years
EDUCATION LEVEL
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
34%
37%
16%
12% 2%
0% Primary
Base 2500
Secondary
College
University
Post graduate
LOCATION
Urban 35%
Rural 65%
Base 2500
About Infotrak
About Infotrak q
Infotrak Research is a professional research company that was founded in 2004 following the vision of the founder to provide the Pan African Market with suitable information solutions required to sustain the needs of the ever-growing economies. Headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, Infotrak also has offices in Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria and field contacts in more than 12 other countries in Sub Saharan Africa.
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The firm, which is currently one of the fastest growing in the region, attributes its rapid growth not only to innovation, high level of professionalism and dynamism, but also on the excellent caliber of personnel who have been described by many as “Business minds who specialize in research. Whilst Infotrak has already carved a niche in market research, the firm’s reputation in Social research has quickly gained impetus. Today, Infotrak is one of the most authoritative pollsters in Kenya, providing political opinion polling under the Infotrak Harris Poll flagship brand.
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In 2007, Infotrak became a global network affiliate of Harris Interactive, the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and Media Transfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms.