punting
Euro Optimism Resident tipster Archie Albatross believes that European players will continue to make waves in 2011
A
h, the New Year. The time when a golf fanatic’s thoughts turn to knuckling down to that short game practice or straightening out the old three-iron once and for all. And – for those who enjoy their golf served up with a glass of nice Pinot something* on the sofa – time to gaze into the crystal ball of professional golf predictions and hatch plans to conquer the old enemy – the bookmakers who think they know it all. With the increasing overlap of top players on both the PGA and European Tours, it’s becoming harder and harder to pick the season-long winners in each region. It is especially difficult to make an early prediction on the European Tour’s Race to Dubai given so much depends 42
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upon the pros' schedules later in the season. So we’ll take a look at a selection of players tipped to succeed on both side of the Pond and then spend a little time value spotting some of the markets, especially for those compelling, stayup-til-dawn major tournaments.
Ryder Cup Warriors
All eyes will be on the triumphant European players from Celtic Manor and an expectation that the many impressive performances from the blue team will transfer into continued success in 2011. Of those players, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald and Rory McIlroy strike me as being the most promising to follow this year. Westwood will clearly build his entire season around peaking at the majors. Due to his consistency and versatility, he has strong claims in all four championships – unlike other perennial contenders who play to a style (the doe-eyed Phil Mickelson, for example). If he could pick a time to peak however, it would almost certainly be in June and July, for both Congressional and Royal St George’s should be right up his alley. Assuming he stays healthy, we should expect to see the current world number one in contention many times this year, although from a betting point of view, the 7/2 on offer for him to win his first major looks a wee bit skinny. Luke Donald, however, tempts me at 12/1 for any of the big ones. Another player who has struggled with injury, Donald now seems back to his best and has the experience, temperament and ‘feel’ of a major winner. The US Open or USPGA would seem his best chances, although he likes Augusta and can more than handle himself on a windswept links. So if, like me, you fancy Donald’s overall chances, I recommend a few early notes on him for a major and for fun maybe add a small flutter on the teaser bet for him to finish in the top 10 of all the majors at 100/1. As for McIlroy, if he can chalk up an early victory, he could get the momentum to have a truly stellar year. Be warned however that as the current punter’s HKGOLFER.COM
darling, the bookies have already gotten hold of him. Sharp odds on for any single tour victory and 16/1 for the Open Championship are much too short for value in January. A bit more tempting is the 9/2 on him winning the Race to Dubai as his schedule will prioritise the European Tour and you get the feeling he would love to have that distinction. That the Race to Dubai concept has currency at all says a great deal about the viability and development of the European Tour, its players and fans. Many believe it offers a truer climax to the season than the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup and make no mistake, the Euros take it seriously. Westwood, 2010 winner Martin Kaymer and McIroy are the short priced favourites (all under 5/1) but outsider hunters may want to look for better value with Miguel Angel Jimenez, who’s currently a very healthy 80/1. The old goat still has great game and is resolutely committed to playing in Europe. The price reflects his unfashionability (that ‘tail surely has to go soon!) and I suggest a minor punt each-way or go short the index at similar prices.
Trans-Atlantic titans: Archie reckons Luke Donald will carry over his solid form to 2011 (left); while Steve Stricker could be a contender at the Masters in April (below)
*While an increasing number of notable golfers now have their own wine labels, something from the Luke Donald Collection would do very nicely. Readers should note that Archie’s positive predictions for the Englishman were in no way affected by a very nice drop of the 2005 LDC Napa Valley that he enjoyed over the festive season.
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Ryder Cup Wounded
The American talent pool is clearly currently overshadowed in the golfing public’s eye by the young Europeans but it would be a mistake to overestimate the depth of the American challengers. The big four Americans at the moment are of course Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Jim Fuyrk and Steve Stricker. You could draw any of them out of your company raffle for the Masters (or almost any other event) and feel favoured by Lady Luck. No doubt their talent and experience will make them contenders in 2011. If I had one common concern however, it might be about motivation. For different reasons, I sense the drive might not be as great as with their junior challengers. That’s not quite true for Tiger of course, and he'll be desperate to re-establish the dominance he once had. Naturally, it’s hard to exclude any of them from any staking plan but the value bet looks like Stricker to win the US Money List at 33/1. The interest for me will be to see how those who emerged in 2010 will handle another season in the limelight. It is tricky to forecast how the likes of Nick Watney, Jeff Overton and Rickie Fowler will deal with an off-season and the weight of
greater expectations. If I had to pick some seasonlong picks, I would look to the marginally more experienced and mature heads of Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson. Both played consistently well last year and if starting the year in Hawaii and California, they could be strong challengers in the majors (any major: 10/1 and 33/1 respectively) and the US Money List (16/1 and 150/1). I also can’t resist feeling another strong season for Ben Crane (200/1 for the FedEx Cup) – another golfer who seems to have settled very comfortably into a habit of top 25 finishes (12 out 24 starts in 2010).
Continental Rivalry
For major devotees, the best value on offer is a novelty bet offered by that old rogue Victor Chandler in a ‘Region to Win Most Majors’ market. Here the European group is offered at a surprising 9/4. In addition to the Ryder Cup warriors mentioned above, the likes of Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell, Robert Karlsson and the Molinari brothers all deserve to squeeze into this article as potential challengers. Similarly, Padraig Harrington, Justin Rose, Ross Fisher and Martin Laird cannot be overlooked. If you have just one season-long punt this year, this should be it.
Senior Spread Another year on, another year older and for many of us the Champions Tour has an increasing level of interest. The performances aren't half bad either, with Bernhard Langer setting an extraordinarily high standard over the past three years. One of the best features of this tour is that with every new season, familiar faces from the regular tour pass their fiftieth birthday and
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become Champions Tour ‘rookies’. Many of us felt old Father Time knocking us hard when we saw Freddie Couples stroll languidly into the picture in 2010 – and he did not disappoint his fans, winning four times and finishing second in the Charles Schwab Cup rankings. If he stays fits, Freddie and his funky golf sneakers will surely be pushing Langer again this year. But the best value bet in golf – on any tour
– falls on the broad shoulders of Kentuckian Kenny Perry. Perry turned 50 late last year and has played just twice amongst his age group – but this huntin’, shootin’, fishin’ nut is bound to make a big impact with a full calendar year in his crosshairs. Kenny is not going out there to sit on a porch-swing and banter with his old pals either. When asked what message the Champions Tour’s new youngest player wanted to send to his peers, Perry gave a typically feisty response: “Tell ‘em there’s gonna be a new sheriff in town. The players who are now out on the Champions Tour wore me out during the late ‘80s and early ‘90s. Payback is tough and I’m coming for them”. Followers of this column over the years will know that I like Kenny’s chances as a ‘sleeper’ punt every time he tees it up and he has not often disappointed. If he can take his current form (16/20 cuts made on the PGA Tour last year) and that fighting talk into the three-day format, he should contend every single week. For this reason, the bet of the year is the 12/1 currently on offer for Kenny to win the Champions Tour Money List. If you consider (with the quarter odds offered each way) you can therefore get 3/1 on him joining Langer and Couples in any of the top three spots – I would heavily overweight your staking on Perry to take the Champions Tour by storm.
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