Dublin Economic Monitor issue 10
july 2017
In this issue LATEST DUBLIN ECONOMIC DATA IHS MARKIT DUBLIN PMI KBC/ESRI CONSUMER SENTIMENT NEW: STR HOTEL MARKET DATA DUBLIN’S TOURISM SECTOR REFLECTS STRENGTHENING REGIONAL ECONOMY
F
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PAGE 14
PAGE 12
By Don Nugent, Director, Dundrum Town Centre
By Dearbhla Lawson, Director, Dún LaoghaireRathdown County Council
DUNDRUM TOWN CENTRE-EXPERIENTIAL SHOPPING
DUBLIN AREA TOURISM PLANS
WELCOME
HIGHLIGHTS Dublin's unemployment rate remained stable in the first quarter of 2017 at 6.3%. Residential rents in Dublin showed some signs of moderation in Q1 2017 as rents declined QoQ for apartments and remained stable for houses. Residential property price growth accelerated to over 8% YoY in both March and April 2017. Public transport trips reached a new peak of almost 51 million passenger journeys in Q1 2017 in spite of industrial action in the quarter. Dublin’s hotel market remained buoyant in Q2 2017 as occupancy rates exceeded 82% and Average Daily Room Rates reached a new post-recession peak. Housing completions in Dublin remained low in Q1 2017 with fewer than 430 units completed in each of the first three months. The Dublin MARKIT PMI Dublin PMI data indicated a sharp and accelerated increase in business activity in Q2 2017, with a particularly strong expansion in the construction sector. Dublin KBC/ESRI Consumer sentiment in Dublin rose sharply in Q2 2017 driven by a strengthening jobs market and more positive perceptions of the economic outlook. dundrum town centre. photographer: peter kavanagh
welcome to the July 2017 issue of the dublin economic monitor
T
he Dublin Economic Monitor is a joint initiative on behalf of the four Dublin Local Authorities, co-ordinated by the City Council. The Dublin Region (four Dublin local authorities combined) plays an increasingly important role in the economy of Ireland and it is important that its performance is properly tracked. The Monitor is designed to be of particular interest to those living and doing business in Dublin or considering locating here. It is produced by DKM Economic Consultants, with KBC/ ESRI delivering the Dublin consumer sentiment data and IHS MARKIT delivering the Dublin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). We are delighted to publish a new data series from STR on Dublin's hotel market which provides data on hotel occupancy, market supply and daily room rates. Dublin City Council
South Dublin County Council
Also in this edition we have a special article by Dearbhla Lawson from Dun Laoghaire Rathdown focusing on Dublin Area Tourism Plans which sets out the role the 4 local authorities play in supporting this important sector of the Dublin economy. There is also a special article by Don Nugent, Director of Dundrum Town Centre on how they are embracing new retail opportunities and technology trends. You can sign up to our quarterly mailing list and access the Monitor online at www.dublineconomy.ie. We hope you find the Monitor useful and welcome any feedback to info@leo.dublincity.ie. The next release will be published online on 26th October 2017. Interactive charts from the Monitor are available on the Dublin dashboard www.dublindashboard.ie. Fingal County Council
Dún Laoghaire Rathdown County Council
This document provides general information on the Dublin economy. It is not intended to be used as a basis for any particular course of action or as a substitute for financial advice. The document is produced independently by DKM Economic Consultants; the views and opinions expressed are those of the relevant author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Dublin Local Authorities. The Dublin Local Authorities disclaim all liability in connection with any action that may be taken in reliance of this document, and for any error, deficiency, flaw or omission contained in it.
2 //
ECONOMY
GLOBAL ECONOMY
NATIONAL ECONOMY
Following a relatively subdued year in 2016, global economic growth is expected to rise moderately in 2017 on the back of increasing trade, investment and manufacturing output. Improving business confidence and recovering domestic demand—particularly in Europe—have been cited as primary positive forces. In the US, fiscal expansions (mostly in the form of reduced household and corporate tax rates) are expected to further stimulate economic growth, which has already benefitted from rising consumer demand driven by a strengthening labour market. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates for a third consecutive quarter in June, but business investment is still expected to contribute positively to domestic demand.
The finalised National Accounts results for 2016 showed that Irish GDP expanded by 5.1% YoY, driven by particularly strong performances in the sectors of construction (+15.1%) and information & communications (+9.8%). Activities related to aircraft leasing and the import of intellectual property (IP) rights also had significant – if somewhat distortionary — effects in increasing the rate of GDP growth. On July 14th, the CSO revealed a new measure for Irish economic performance (GNI*) which strips out large movements in these specific components. This tailored measure, which valued economic output at €189bn in 2016 compared to GDP of €276bn, affects the key metrics for the economy, especially regarding Irish debt levels as the ratio of Debt: GNI was c.106% versus a Debt:GDP ratio of c.73%. This could have knock-on effects for Government fiscal policy over the coming years.
euro: sterling exchange rate €1.35
exchequer tax receipts performance against profile, h1 2017 (€million)
€1.30
€250
€1.25
+3.0%
€200
General Election Result
€150
€1.20
€100 €50
€1.15
+0.6%
Brexit Referendum Result
€-
€1.10
-€50
Article 50 Triggered
13/07/17
19/06/17
26/05/17
02/05/17
08/04/17
15/03/17
19/02/17
26/01/17
02/01/17
09/12/16
-€100
15/11/16
22/10/16
28/09/16
04/09/16
11/08/16
18/07/16
24/06/16
31/05/16
07/05/16
€1.05
13/04/16
Conservative Party Conference
-€150 -€200
source: central bank of ireland.
-2.3%
-€250
The UK’s General Election on June 8th generated greater instability and uncertainty as the Conservative Party formed a minority government supported by the Democratic Unionist Party, which will have implications for Northern Ireland. The UK’s economy has started to show the first major signs of a slowdown since the Brexit referendum as higher inflation (related to the weakening of Sterling shown in the chart), low real wage growth and tightening credit supply have contributed to a softening of growth which is expected to continue into 2017 and 2018. The Eurozone has shown relative strength in recent quarters, supported by higher demand from export markets in Asia and the US. Accommodative monetary policies and modest fiscal expansions are expected to support growth but stubbornly high unemployment, weak real wage growth and high levels of non-performing loans are constraining domestic demand in some countries.
Total
Income Taxes
source: department of finance.
VAT
Excise Duties Corporation Stamp Duties Tax
The Government published its first Summer Economic Statement under new Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in July. The Statement outlined in broad terms the Government’s plans for increased medium term capital expenditure, along with estimates of fiscal space for 2018 (€500m after pre- committed expenditure is filtered out), and scaled back plans for a ‘Rainy Day Fund’. Strong Exchequer tax returns for the month of June narrowed an unexpected deficit which had emerged between actual returns and forecasted returns over much of the first half of the year. However, as shown in the chart, revenue was still marginally behind profile (-0.5%) largely due to shortfalls in income taxes (-2.3%) and excise duties (-2.9%).
irish macroeconomic growth forecasts
major economies gdp growth forecasts
global uk us euro area germany japan china india source: oecd, june 2017.
-12.2%
-2.9% -0.5%
2016 %E
2017 %f
2018 %f
3.0 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.0 6.7 7.1
3.5 1.6 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.4 6.6 7.3
3.6 1.0 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.0 6.4 7.7
gnp gdp private consumption public expenditure investment exports imports unemployment rate cpi inflation debt:gdp ratio* source: 2016: cso, 2017 & 2018: esri qec summer 2017.
2016 %E
2017 %f
2018 %f
9.6 5.1 3.3 5.3 59.2 4.6 16.4 7.9 0.0 72.8
3.5 3.8 3.1 2.5 9.6 5.9 7.6 6.4 0.6 70.8
3.4 3.6 3.0 2.6 8.7 5.6 7.7 5.6 1.1 67.2
*general government balance.
// 3
DUBLIN ECONOMY
DUBLIN’S TOURISM SECTOR REFLECTS STRENGTHENING REGIONAL ECONOMY
dublin airport & hotel sector maintain significant momentum In line with the broadly positive movements in the Irish economy in recent quarters, economic activity in Dublin has continued to gather pace. The Capital’s rapidly improving labour market is a prime example of the region’s resurgence with the unemployment rate swiftly reducing over the past three years to 6.3% (seasonally adjusted) in Q1 2017. Such positive developments in the labour market have been driven by job creation in specific sectors, such as construction, while further employment growth is expected over the coming quarters as a number of larger international firms have recently selected Dublin as their city of choice for relocation from the UK in light of Brexit. Dublin’s tourism market has continued to evolve and contribute to the wider economy of the region in recent years, as can be seen in a number of indicators and a special report (pages 12-13) in this issue. Dublin Airport is the primary example in this regard as passenger arrivals reached a new peak of over 1.23 million (SA) in March 2017. This was the 23rd consecutive month in which arrivals exceeded 1 million, thus underlining both the growing importance of the airport as a transport hub and the ongoing success of the Capital’s tourism sector. Further evidence of the strong levels of tourists visiting Dublin is demonstrated by two new hotel market indicators from STR. This data shows that the Dublin hotel occupancy rate remained at a high level in Q2 2017 (82.7% SA), which reflects a booming tourism market combined with limited new room supply in recent years. Average Daily Rates (ADR) charged showed a similar trend, reaching €148 per room per night (SA) in the quarter to stand at the highest point since the series began in 2011. The increasing level of trips on Dublin’s public transport system is another signal of the strong levels of tourism and economic activity. Passenger trips reached a new peak in Q1 2017 and this likely reflects both rising levels of employment in the Capital and the strong performance of the tourism sector in attracting visitors. The overall improvement in economic activity in Dublin was cited
4 //
as a key driver of rising consumer sentiment levels in Q2 2017, according to KBC/ESRI. Austin Hughes, Chief Economist at KBC Bank Ireland, notes:
“The Dublin consumer sentiment index in the second quarter of 2017 improved to its best level in a year and was driven by a strengthening jobs market that boosted household finances and encouraged a more positive assessment of the economic outlook for the coming year. While the latest reading is very encouraging, it suggests consumers outside Dublin remain cautious in relation to their personal financial prospects and their spending plans” In line with the broadly positive economic performance of the Capital, Dublin’s IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Q2 2017 showed continuing momentum from previous quarters. Andrew Harker, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, explains:
“The latest Dublin PMI data suggest no signs of a let-up in the strong performance of the Capital’s private sector, with output growth accelerating from the first three months of the year. A particular highlight this quarter was the construction sector, which saw activity increase at one of the strongest rates in the series 16-year history. There was a slight easing in the rate of job creation during Q2, but firms continued to take on extra staff at a marked pace and the labour market situation will likely improve further should growth of workloads be maintained at the current pace. Dublin outperformed the Rest of Ireland in terms of both output and new orders as the Capital continued to drive growth, but the improving position is by no means restricted to Dublin as the rest of the country also posted marked expansions in activity, new business and employment.”
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
unemployment remains stable in first quarter of 2017 dublin unemployment (sa) year on year change % points (sa) dublin employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)
q1 ' 17 6.3% -0.8 629.1 +13.5
dublin & national unemployment rate % (sa) 16%
National Max 15.1%
14%
Dublin Max 13.1%
12% 10% 8%
source: cso qnhs seasonally adjusted BY DKM..
construction leads strong employment growth services employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa) industry & constr, employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)
6% 4%
Dublin
Q1 17
Q2 16
Q3 15
Q4 14
Q1 14
Q2 13
Q3 12
Q4 11
Q1 11
Q2 10
Q3 09
0%
Q4 08
2%
Q1 08
Following a very strong final quarter of 2016, the Dublin labour market was comparatively stable in Q1 2017. The unemployment rate for the Capital stood at 6.3% (seasonally adjusted) in the quarter, down by 0.8 percentage points YoY but unchanged QoQ. This reflected increased employment combined with a less significant increase in unemployment. At the national level, the unemployment rate fell for a fifth consecutive quarter to stand at 6.8% in Q1, thus reflecting the ongoing improvement in the labour market outside Dublin.
National
source: cso qnhs. dublin seasonally adjusted by dkm
employment by broad sector '000s (sa) 700
q1 ' 17 537.8 +5.4 81.9 +5.3
Max: 634,400
622,700
600
500
400
source: cso qnhs, seasonally adjusted BY DKM.
Despite slowing levels of QoQ growth, seasonally adjusted employment levels in Dublin rose by 2.6% or almost 16,000 jobs YoY in Q1 2017. As with the final quarter of 2016, YoY employment growth was recorded in each of the four main sectors of the economy. The most substantial YoY expansion was in construction where employment increased by 20.4%. This was followed by the public sector and industry where employment growth reached 2.9% and 2.2% respectively. The private services sector recorded the lowest proportional increase of 1.2% YoY, but this still equated to over 4,600 jobs.
300
200
100
0
Q1 08
Q1 09
Q1 10
Q1 11
Private Sector Services
Q1 12
Q1 13
Public Sector
Q1 14 Industry
Q1 15
Q1 16
Q1 17
Construction
source: cso qnhs seasonally adjusted. note: individual sector values may not sum to total due to rounding.
// 5
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS residential property prices continue to rise
140
80 70 60
Dublin
Apr 17
Aug 16
Dec 15
Apr 15
Aug 14
Dec 13
Apr 13
Aug 12
Dec 11
Apr 11
Aug 10
Dec 09
Apr 09
40
Aug 08
50
National Excl Dublin
source: cso.
residential rents € per month €1,550
Dublin House Max: €1,535 Dublin Apt Max: €1,463
€1,450 €1,350 €1,250 €1,150 €1,050
source: rtb.
€950
Following strong growth levels in average rents for both houses and apartments in Q4 2016, the Dublin residential rental market showed signs of moderation in Q1 2017. Average rents for apartments recorded a QoQ decline of 2.7% which was the largest such decrease since late 2009. Average rents for houses rose at a very minor QoQ rate in Q1 2017, but nonetheless reached a new peak of €1,535 per month. This was 6.6% above the equivalent average in Q1 2016.
€850 €750
Dublin House
National ex Dublin House
Dublin Apt
Q1 17
Q3 16
Q1 16
Q3 15
Q1 15
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q3 13
Q1 13
Q3 12
Q3 11
Q1 12
€550
Q1 11
€650 Q3 10
dublin house rent € per month year on year change € dublin apartment rent € per month year on year change €
q1 ' 17 1,535 +95 1,423 +104
90
Q1 10
residential rents moderate in first quarter of 2017
110 100
Q3 09
The rate of YoY growth in Dublin residential property prices accelerated to over 8% in each of March and April 2017. Prices have now increased on a YoY basis in every month since the end of 2012, reflecting both the macro-economic recovery and the acute supply issues facing the Dublin residential market. Growth remained stronger outside of Dublin in April 2017 with prices rising at the sharpest YoY pace (+13.4%) in over two years.
120
Q1 09
source: cso. note: this index now includes both cash- and mortgage-based transactions.
Dublin Max 130.5
130
Dec 07
apr ' 17 92.8 +8.2 83.7 +13.4
Q3 08
property price index dublin year on year % change property price index national excl dublin year on year % change
residential property price index (2005 = 100)
National ex Dublin Apt
source: rtb.
house completions rising modestly
2,000
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400
source: dhpclg. seasonally adjusted by dkm.
6 //
Feb 17
Apr 16
Sep 16
Nov 15
Jun 15
Jan 15
Mar 14
Aug 14
Oct 13
May 13
Dec 12
Jul 12
Feb 12
Apr 11
Sep 11
Jun 10
Nov 10
Jan 10
Aug 09
Mar 09
Oct 08
0
Dec 07
200 May 08
House completions in the Dublin region remained at a low ebb in Q1 2017, with a seasonally adjusted total of fewer than 430 houses completed in each month. A modest upward trend in completions has emerged over the past year but completion rates remain far below what is required by the market. On a positive note, commencements increased quite robustly in February and March, while completions were more evenly spread across the local authority areas, with rising completion rates in South Dublin in particular.
1,600
Jul 07
source: declg. seasonally adjusted by dkm.
Max: 1,900
1,800
Feb 07
mar '17 426 +126
Sep 06
total housing completions (sa) year on year change (sa)
dublin housing completions (sa)
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS dublin office rents stable in q2 2017 city centre office rent index year on year % change south suburbS office rent index year on year % change
dublin office rents index (2006 = 100) 120
q2 '17 113.7 +8.7 110.0 0.0
City Centre Max = 113.7 South Suburbs Max = 110
110 100 90 80
source: CBRE
70
office demand strong in high tech and financial sectors vacancy rate % dublin 2/4 year on year change % points vacancy rate % dublin suburbs year on year change % points
q2 '17 5.0 -1.1 9.7 -1.6
60
City Centre
Q2 17
Q4 16
Q2 16
Q4 15
Q2 15
Q4 14
Q2 14
Q4 13
Q2 13
Q4 12
Q4 11
Q2 12
Q2 11
Q4 10
Q2 10
Q4 09
Q2 09
Q4 08
Q2 08
40
Q4 07
50
Q2 07
Office rents remained stable on a QoQ basis across the Dublin region in Q2 2017. Although unchanged in the quarter, rents remained at peak levels in both the city centre and south suburbs. On a YoY basis, rents for commercial space grew in three of the four Dublin regions covered. Rents rose by 18% and 17% YoY in the west suburbs and north suburbs respectively, while an 8.7% YoY increase was recorded in the relatively more expensive city centre area.
South Suburbs
source: cbre.
dublin office space vacancy rates % 30%
Dublin Suburbs Max = 25% Dublin 2/4 Max = 20.6%
25% 20% 15%
source: cbre.
10%
Q2 17
Q4 16
Q2 16
Q4 15
Q2 15
Q4 14
Q2 14
Q4 13
Q2 13
Q4 12
Q2 12
Q4 11
Q2 11
Q4 10
Q2 10
Q4 09
Q2 09
Q4 08
Q2 08
public transport million trips (sa) 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44
Q1 17
Q3 16
Q1 16
Q3 15
Q1 15
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q3 13
Q1 13
42
Q3 12
43 Q1 12
Passenger trips on Dublin's public transport system rebounded strongly in the first quarter of 2017 in spite of three days of industrial action on Bus Eireann's routes. A seasonally adjusted total of almost 51 million trips were taken in the quarter, 1.6 million trips or 3.2% above the same quarter in 2016. Growth was robust across the different transport modes, but was particularly strong on Dublin Bus and Luas. Increasing public transport usage is likely a reflection of both rising employment in Dublin and positive trends in the capital's tourism market.
Dublin Suburbs
source: cbre.
Q3 11
source: nta seasonally adjusted by dkm.
Dublin 2/4
Q1 11
public transport million trips (sa) year on year change (sa)
q1 '17 50.9 +1.6
0%
Q3 10
public transport trips rebound strongly in q1 2017
5%
Q1 10
Office vacancy rates in Dublin fell on both a QoQ and YoY basis in Q2 2017. These trends reflect the exceptional level of office take-up in Dublin in H1 2017, which increased by almost 70% on the corresponding period in 2016. Approximately 40% of the office take-up in the Q2 2017 was by computer/hightech occupiers, with a further 30% accounted for by financial services firms. Vacancy rates overall in Dublin were down from 7% to 6% in the quarter.
source: nta. seasonally adjusted by dkm. note: this series has been re-calibrated since the last issue.
// 7
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS dublin airport connectivity improves further
source: cso, seasonally adjusted by dkm.
1,250
Max: 1,235
1,150 1,050 950 850 750 Severe Winter Weather
650
q2 ' 17 82.7% -0.4 101.0 +2.4%
84%
Mar 17
May 16
Jul 15
Sep 14
80% 78%
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q3 13
Q2 13
Q1 13
Q4 12
Q3 12
Q2 12
Q1 12
Q4 11
Q3 11
Q2 11
Q1 11
source: str. seasonally adjusted by dkm.
dublin hotel average daily rates (sa) €160 €150
Maximum: €148
€140 €130 €120
source: str. seasonally adjusted by dkm.
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q3 13
Q2 13
Q1 13
Q4 12
Q3 12
Q2 12
€100
Q1 12
€110
Q4 11
Average Daily Rates (ADRs) charged for Dublin hotel rooms maintained an upward trajectory from previous quarters in Q2 2017 to reach a new post-recession peak of €148 (seasonally adjusted) per room per night. This was 3% above the equivalent rate for Q1 2017, and represented an increase of 7.3% or €10 compared to Q2 2016. ADRs have now increased in every quarter for two years, demonstrating the impact of surging demand in the market.
70%
Q3 11
str. seasonally adjusted by dkm.
72%
Q2 11
q2 '17 €148 +7.3%
74%
Q1 11
hotel room rates reach new post-recession peak
8 //
Nov 13
Max: 83.2%
82%
76%
The Dublin hotel occupancy rate remained above 82% (seasonally adjusted) for a ninth successive quarter in Q2 2017. Occupancy stood at 82.7% in the quarter, down by marginal proportions of 0.3 percentage points (pp) QoQ and 0.4pp YoY. This minor decrease in occupancy rates may be related to a fall off in UK visitors on foot of the depreciation of Sterling, combined with moderate increases in hotel room supply. The stock of available hotel rooms rose by 2.4% YoY in the quarter to stand at the highest level since the series began in Q1 2011.
year on year change %
Jan 13
dublin hotel occupancy rate (sa)
source: str. seasonally adjusted by dkm.
hotel average daily rate € (sa)
Mar 12
source: cso. seasonally adjusted by dkm.
hotel occupancy rates remain high hotel occupancy rate % (sa) year on year change %age point index of hotel room supply (sa, 2011=100) year on year change %
May 11
Sep 09
550
Jul 10
Icelandic Ash Cloud
Nov 08
Passenger arrivals at Dublin Airport maintained significant momentum in the first quarter of 2017, with robust YoY growth recorded in each month. January recorded the strongest growth of 10.1% YoY with 1.23 million passenger arrivals. YoY growth fell back to 3.9% in February, but recovered to 9.6% in March. Overall, passenger arrivals in Q1 2017 were 7.8% or 264,000 arrivals above the same quarter in 2016. This ongoing success has contributed to the airport being recently ranked in the top 20 European airports for both direct connectivity and hub connectivity.
Jan 08
total arrivals '000s (SA) year on year change '000s (sa)
mar '17 1,235.0 +107.8
dublin airport arrivals '000s (sa)
DUBLIN’S INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS
THE CAPITAL CONTINUES TO RANK HIGHLY UNDER INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARKS Internationally published benchmarks are a useful means of measuring a city’s performance relative to its peers, and recent indicators for Dublin confirm the city’s strong showing across a range of dimensions (see table below). The benchmarks listed focus on a number of areas – attractiveness for FDI, the real estate market, quality and cost of living, business environment, university quality, start-up environment and tourism. The QS World University Rankings 2018 showed that two of Dublin’s three universities had improved their standings over the previous year. Trinity College rose 10 places to 88th in the world while UCD was up 6 places to 168th. DCU’s ranking fell in the year, dropping by 11 places to
391st. The report showed that all of the universities improved their reputations amongst employers, but research impact was considered to be low by international standards. In terms of an EU destination for US startups, Dublin was rated highly in a new report by Venture Capital firm Index Ventures. The report named Dublin as the second most popular location due to its relative affordability, availability of staff and the country’s competitive corporation tax rate. London topped the list due in large part to its high concentration of large corporations and its deep talent pool. Despite this strong performance, the 2017 Mercer Cost of Living Survey ranked Dublin as the second most expensive city in the Eurozone
for expats to live. Rental accommodation was cited as a key factor in this result, which positioned Dublin as the 66th most expensive city worldwide. However, this still represented an improvement on its ranking of 47th in 2016. Accommodation was also highlighted as a weak point for the Capital in a ranking of 100 worldwide locations best suited for millennials to live in or visit. The index, compiled by Nestpick, ranked Dublin as the 33rd best city in the world with strong performances in areas such as gender equality, the startup scene, tourism and internet connectivity. Surprisingly Dublin’s nightlife was poorly rated by Nestpick, while the transport network also received a relatively low rating.
d u b l i n ' s l at e s t i n t e r n at i o n a l r a n k i n g s SOURCE
BENCHMARK CRITERIA
YEAR
RANKING
CHANGE‡
FDI Intelligence Global Cities of the Future
Socio-economic
2017
3
-
Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI)
Business environment, financial sector development, infrastructure, human capital, reputational & general factors; online survey
2017
31
▲
Index Ventures Location Rankings
Business environment, human capital, cost of set up.
2017
2
-
PwC Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2017
Real estate investment, development
2017
4
▼
JLL City Momentum Index
Real Estate
2016
3
▲
IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook Rankings (Ireland)
Economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency & infrastructure
2016
7
▲
Mercer 2017 Cost of Living Survey
Cost of consumer goods and services
2017
66
▲
Mercer 2017 Quality of Living Survey
Environmental/socio-economic
2017
34
▼
QS World University Rankings
University quality
2018
88*
▲
ACI Europe Fastest Growing Major European Airports
Passenger arrivals & departures
2016
1
▲
CBRE European Tech Ranking
Tech clusters’ employment, growth and attractiveness credentials
2016
6
-
Nestpick Best Cities for Millennials
Business ecosystem, living essentials, openness & recreation.
2017
33
-
City Reptrak Study
Reputation as a destination to visit, work, live and invest
2016
20
▲
* tcd. ‡change on previous publication of the relevant benchmark. an upward-pointing arrow denotes an improvement.
// 9
KBC / ESRI CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX dublin consumer sentiment rises sharply in q2 2017
consumer expectations increase further
Q2 17
Q4 16
Q2 16
Q4 15
Q2 15
Q4 14
Q2 14
Q4 13
Q2 13
100 90 80 70 60
Dublin
Q2 17
Q4 16
Q2 16
Q4 15
Q2 15
Q4 14
Q2 14
Q4 13
Q2 13
Q4 12
40
Q2 12
50
230
National excl. Dublin
210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70
Dublin
About
The KBC/ESRI sentiment index is based on responses from consumers about general economic conditions and their household finances. A more detailed commentary is available at www.kbc.ie/blog
National excl. Dublin
Q2 17
Q4 16
Q2 16
Q4 15
Q2 15
Q4 14
Q2 14
Q4 13
Q2 13
Q4 12
30
Q2 12
50 Q4 11
186.0 -3.8 -2.0
Base 2003 = 100
Q2 11
National
Following a fall in consumer expectations for much of last year, it appeared in Q2 2017 that consumers in the Capital had generated greater confidence about the future. In particular, expectations regarding the economy and labour market over the next 12 months improved in the quarter. This indicates that the continuing decline in the unemployment rate and better jobs prospects are feeding into consumer expectations.
10 //
Q4 12
Q4 11
Q2 12
Q2 11
Q4 10
Q2 10
Q4 09
Q2 09
Q4 08
110
Dublin expectationS
dublin excl. dublin 190.0 -12.2 +10.0
120
Q4 10
q2 2017 year on year change quarter on quarter change
Base 2003 = 100
Q2 10
consumer expectations
130
Q4 11
There was a further increase (4.2 points) in the Index of Current Conditions in Dublin in Q2, mainly driven by improvements in households' financial situations. There was a 5.7 percentage point rise in consumers reporting their personal financial situation had improved over the past year which likely reflects better labour market conditions as well as reduced household indebtedness. The buying climate has also improved with more consumers stating that now is a good time to make large household purchases.
National excl. Dublin
Dublin current conditions
Q2 11
127.0 +6.7 -1.0
Dublin
Q4 10
114.0 +6.1 +4.0
40
Q2 10
National excl. dublin
60
Q4 09
q2 2017 year on year change quarter on quarter change
dublin
80
Q2 09
current conditions
100
Q4 09
perceptions of current conditions positive
120
Q2 09
The overall Dublin Consumer Sentiment Index increased in Q2 driven by improving perceptions of current conditions and rising expectations regarding the future. There was a 7 point increase compared to Q1 as all underlying components of the survey improved. It appears that Dublin consumer sentiment is beginning to recover following a relatively poor performance in the index in H2 2016. Outside of Dublin, consumer sentiment decreased by 1.4 points QoQ as financial and labour market concerns increased.
140
Q2 08
157.0 +1.1 -1.4
Q4 08
151.0 -2.2 +7.5
160
Q2 08
dublin
Q4 08
q2 2017 year on year change quarter on quarter change
180
National excl. dublin
Q2 08
consumer sentiment
Dublin sentiment overall Base 2003 = 100
DUBLIN IHS MARKIT PMI dublin firms see faster rise in output in q2
overall ihs markit pmi (sa) 65
dublin
national excl. dublin
60
q2 2017
59.4
57.3
55
year on year change
+1.8 +1.6
-0.5 -2.0
50
overall ihs markit pmi
quarter on quarter change
increasing rate of growth ▲
50 = no change
45
new order growth in dublin outpaces rest of ireland
40 35 30
65 60
q2 2017
58.8
57.8
55
year on year change
+0.8 -0.4
+0.1 -1.4
Q2 17
Q2 16
Q2 15
Q2 14
Q2 13
Q2 12
50 45 40 35 30
solid increase in staffing levels
Q2 17
Q2 16
Q2 15
Q2 14
Q2 13
Q2 12
Q2 11
Q2 10
Q2 09
Q2 08
Q2 07
Q2 06
Q2 05
Q2 04
Q2 03
increasing rate of contraction ▼ Q2 02
25
Dublin
National excl. Dublin
overall pmi employment growth (sa) 65
dublin
national excl. dublin
60
q2 2017
54.8
55.4
55
year on year change
+0.2 -4.2
-1.2 -2.6
50 45 40 35 30
Dublin
Q2 17
Q2 16
Q2 15
Q2 14
Q2 13
Q2 12
Q2 11
Q2 10
Q2 09
Q2 08
Q2 07
Q2 06
Q2 05
Q2 04
increasing rate of contraction ▼ Q2 03
25
Q2 02
Dublin companies increased their staffing levels for the nineteenth successive quarter in Q2 2017. The rate of job creation eased from the start of the year, but remained solid at 54.8 on the index. This was above the mark of 50 on the index which signifies expansion, and is an indication of the ongoing improvement in the Capital's labour market. The rest of Ireland also saw a rise in employment in Q2, and one that was slightly faster than in Dublin.
increasing rate of growth ▲
50 = no change
Q2 01
quarter on quarter change
Q2 11
increasing rate of growth ▲
50 = no change
Q2 01
New orders continued to rise sharply in the quarter, albeit to a slightly lesser extent than in Q1. The increase in new work in Dublin was stronger than the rest of Ireland at 58.8 on the index. This was the fifth quarter in a row in which Dublin has outperformed the rest of Ireland. Output has now expanded in Dublin in every quarter since Q3 2012.
employment growth
Q2 10
Q2 09
Q2 07
Q2 06
Q2 05
Q2 04
Q2 08
National excl. Dublin
overall pmi new orders (sa)
national excl. dublin
quarter on quarter change
Q2 03
Dublin
dublin
new orders
increasing rate of contraction ▼ Q2 02
25
Q2 01
The Dublin private sector recorded an accelerated increase in output during Q2 2017. The Dublin PMI posted 59.4, up from 57.8 in Q1 and above the reading for the rest of Ireland. Strong growth was seen across all three economic sectors, with the rise in construction the fastest in three years. This expansion was also one of the fastest in the series which dates back to 2001. Manufacturing recorded a bounceback in growth following signs of a slowdown in Q1, while services continued to see strong expansions in output.
National excl. Dublin
about
The Dublin Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI) series is produced by IHS Markit Economics, an independent research company that produces highly-regarded surveys of business conditions in nations around the world www.markit.com // 11
SPECIAL REPORT
dublin area tourism plans supporting sustainable growth BY DEARBHLA LAWSON DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC COMMUNITY AND CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AT DÚN LAOGHÁIRE RATHDOWN COUNTY COUNCIL
Tourism plays a key role in supporting the local economy, with employment in the sector expected to rise to 250,000 by 2025 compared with circa 225,000 in 2016. 2016 was a record year with 8.7 million overseas tourists spending an estimated €4.6 billion in Ireland. However the first five months of 2017 shows a more mixed picture, with a 7% drop in British visitors compared to the same period in 2016, most likely driven by weaker Sterling and economic uncertainty. On the other hand, there was strong performance from North America with CSO figures indicating 24% growth and a 4% increase in volume from mainland Europe. The four Dublin Local Authorities play a significant role in supporting tourism development, and since 2012 have worked with Fáilte Ireland to raise the profile and promote Dublin as a key tourism destination through the 'Dublin - A Breath of Fresh Air’ campaign. This showcases a vibrant capital city which thrives side
“
Tourism is particularly important for the Dublin region, which welcomed over 5.5 million overseas tourists, generating revenue of €1.97m in 2016.”
Failte Ireland Tourism Facts 2016 (preliminary) published June 2017
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by side with the natural outdoors, with the aim for Dublin to be in the top 10 European destinations for city breaks. Across Dublin, amenities, arts, cultural events and festivals are in abundance. The Dublin Authorities are central to creating the right environment for tourism to thrive, whether through planning, managing or investing in attractions and events or providing high quality public realm. This helps ensure a range of uniquely enjoyable visitor experiences exist, meaning that a visit to Dublin can be so much more than just a city break; whether taking in the Biosphere Bay tours from Howth to Dun Laoghaire or the breath-taking panoramic views across the Dublin Mountains, all side by side with the bustling city centre. Dublin City - Ireland’s Capital City is home to some of the country’s most iconic cultural, sporting and leisure facilities, and offers a huge variety of museums, theatres and galleries complemented by a dynamic night life, famous throughout the world. Attractions are supplemented by the cityscape, where the elegance of Georgian Dublin sits comfortably with the vibrancy of the Docklands. Dublin’s Tourism Statement of Strategy highlights the scale of tourism investment in recent years: Home to two world class sports stadia in Croke Park, the headquarters of the GAA, and the Aviva Stadium, home of the FAI and IRFU, and the centre piece of Ireland's 2023 Rugby World Cup bid. In Dublin Zoo, the Guinness Storehouse and the Book of Kells, Dublin City has 3 of the top 5 national attractions with 3.3 million combined visitors
annually. The award-winning Dublin.ie platform enables visitors to find out exactly what’s happening in this great city. Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown (DLR) embodies the ‘Breath of Fresh Air’ proposition, with breath-taking coastline and the wonderful Dublin Mountains, combining land- and water-based activities with a rich cultural heritage, art, music, literature, festivals and events. DLR’s range of visitor attractions offers the visitor unique and distinctive experiences. DLR’s Tourism Strategy 2017 – 22 identifies three thematic experiences based on the area’s key attractions; ‘Urban Splash!’, ‘Between the Lines’ and ‘Well worth the Climb’. These build on the maritime opportunities, cultural heritage and the opportunities that the landscape has to offer, to reach new heights and deliver panoramic views. DLR has an eclectic array of activities underway currently including free guided Summer of Heritage tours, music festivals at Marlay Park and Dún Laoghaire Harbour (Beatyard), literary and historic trails such as Dalkey Heritage Centre and and The Maeve Binchy Literary Trail, the iconic Lexicon Library and Cultural Centre, Food Markets in Dun Laoghaire and Marlay Park, events at Airfield Estate, Dundrum, Bio-Sphere bay tours and Dublin Mountains adventures. Fingal - Fingal Tourism Strategy, launched in mid-2015, focused on aligning the County with the ‘Dublin - A Breath of Fresh Air’ brand, working in collaboration with sectoral stakeholders. The Tourism Strategy has recently been reviewed and updated, and has
prioritised actions in two distinct sets aimed at maximising growth. These include the enablers: connectivity, accommodation and skills, and the motivators; attractions, culture and heritage, business tourism, marketing, events and food. Fingal County Council commissioned the Fingal Heritage Properties Review in 2016 and is about to embark on an initiative to better conserve, manage and promote its impressive array of signature heritage properties. The Council also organises and supports 64 annual events of various scale, such as the Dublin Bay Prawn Festival and the Flavours of Fingal County Show. These impact the local economy to the tune of €30.1 million. South Dublin since the launch of the Tourism Strategy in 2015, have progressed a range of projects to deliver sensitive development and marketing of tourism initiatives. A Tourism Marketing Plan launched in 2017, aligns well to ‘Dublin – A Breath of Fresh Air’. The key project - a gateway to the Dublin Mountains providing access improvements, a treetop walk, trail upgrades, interpretative and education facility with café at The Hellfire Club and Massy’s Woods - has been submitted for approval. In addition, The Round Tower, Clondalkin – Brú Chrónáin - opened in June, and features an interpretative centre, café, and craft shop and is home to the ‘Happy Pear’. The expansion of Tallaght Stadium provides a basecamp for sports and outdoor activity such as the inaugural Gael Force Dublin Event, which was held in February and will run again in 2018.
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SPECIAL REPORT
Dundrum Town Centre Experiential Shopping BY DON NUGENT DIRECTOR, DUNDRUM TOWN CENTRE
The retail sector represents Ireland's largest indigenous industry employing almost 280,000 people, accounting for almost 14% of Irish jobs and 23% of the State’s tax revenue. While retail has been through a period of change over the past decade, with a decline of 40,000 jobs from a peak in 2008, it remains Ireland's largest employer. Traditionally, growth in retail has kept pace with general economic growth; however economic analysis carried out by IBEC suggests more modest future retail sales with growth of 1.2 – 2.2% expected per annum to 2020. This is due mainly to changing consumer behaviours and technological innovation changing how consumers shop and engage in-store and online. The digital economy presents significant opportunities given that the share of Irish consumer spending in the digital economy is expected to grow from 7.7% in 2016 to 12.4% by 2021. The value of online spending will almost double, rising from an estimated €7.5bn to €14.1bn, and embracing digital transformation is key to securing a greater share of this growth. Although Dublin is part of Europe’s fastest growing economy and consumer sentiment is steady, as an industry, retailers need to create and deliver a compelling offer to remain a significant player in this economy.
“
A major focus for many will be on experiential shopping, providing enjoyable and compelling experiences which cannot be replicated online.” Consumers are looking for experiences and retailers are offering personalised in-store service like never before. In a 2017 Retail Excellence Ireland survey, Dundrum Town Centre was identified as the highest performing shopping centre in Ireland with leases close to market rent, a good retail mix and a move towards experiential shopping. Dundrum Town Centre is Ireland’s most popular shopping destination with 18 million visits per annum. Employing over 5,500 people. Our aim is to ensure this is a destination where customer
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service expectations in shopping, leisure and dining are met and exceeded. However, we are also striving to create a destination point with unexpected activity designed to delight and surprise. Most recently we opened our Dundrum Garden of Pure Imagination by Diarmuid Gavin. This spectacular garden was showcased in last year’s RHS & Chelsea Flower Show and this is the first time it has appeared in Ireland. The animated garden comes alive every 15 minutes and has drawn crowds from all over the country with a positive impact on our tenants’ businesses. Recently we have also seen the emergence of online influencers and their role in driving sales particularly within fashion, beauty and lifestyle categories. As these influencers inhabit the world of social media and blogs we see their recommendations fuelling high demand for products and thus footfall to stores and sales online. One high profile Irish blogger, Suzanne Jackson even coined the term “the so-sue-me effect” referring to her ability to put a product out-of-stock after a review. There is a scope for retailers to harness the power of these influencers and most recently Dundrum welcomed Pippa O’Connor and her POCO by Pippa pop up shop. Her range of jeans had only been available online previously. The store created a massive buzz – increasing Dundrum’s footfall by 12% in the opening weekend alone - and attracted shoppers who wanted to explore and experience the POCO by Pippa experience. This was a brilliant example of how physical retail can blend with online offerings and truly engage with people. Customers also want restaurants and leisure which brings variety and vibrancy to retail destinations. Food and beverage outlets provide an experience that cannot be replaced wholly online and present an opportunity to increase dwell time and enhance overall customer experience. The Irish retail industry is built on a solid reputation of unrivalled service. While the only thing that is constant is change, we all need to embrace dynamic trends and technology in order to thrive. We will see a lot of exciting times ahead in retail and you can be sure that Dundrum Town Centre will be at the forefront of them!
ECONOMIC SCORECARD
dublin: economic scorecard july 2017 Note: These "petrol gauge" charts present the performance of the particular indicator relative to a range of performances from most positive (green) to least positive (red). Each gauge presents the latest value compared to the peak value and the trough value over the last decade (except for public transport trips which cover the past 5 years). The Commercial Property gauges are red at the high and low extremes, in recognition of the undesirability of rents that are either too high or too low as well as vacancy rates.
economy ihs markit business pmi q2 2017
46
51
8
40
57
59.4
34
unemployment rate q1 2017
100
10
6
63
kbc/esri consumer sentiment q2 2017
70
11
6.3
5
3 month moving average (sa)
120
13
% (sa)
140
151
53
160
index (2003 = 100) (sa)
transport airport arrivals mar 2017
860
990
740
7.4 1,110
1,235
610
seaport cargo q1 2017
000's/month (sa)
47.8
46.3
7.9
6.9
8.4
8.8
6.3
public transport trips q1 2017
44.7
43.2
million tonnes/quarter (sa)
49.4
50.9
million trips/quarter (sa)
residential property average residential rents q1 2017
1,150
1,250
1,060
964
residential property price index apr 2017
1,415
102
87 1,340
1,440
71
55
â‚Ź/month
housing completions mar 2017
700 118
92.8
134
index 2005 = 100
1,100
400
1,400
426
60
1,720
units/month (sa)
commercial property dublin city centre office rent q2 2017
450
520
673 â‚Ź/sq.m.
673
9
4
dublin suburbs office vacancy rate q2 2017
20
15
600
370
296
dublin 2/4 office vacancy rate q2 2017
%
22
13
25
5.0
19
16
30
9.7
25
%
sources: cso, except consumer sentiment kbc/esri; ihs markit; seaport cargo dublin port; public transport nta; residential rents rtb; commercial property cbre research
// 15