9. The Ukraine crisis: Anti-Russian sanctions, mass refugee movements,

ALYSSA MARKS

On Feb. 24, the Russian military launched a devastating invasion of Ukraine. In the weeks since then, Russian troops have flooded into Ukraine through Russian, Crimean, and Belarusian borders in military land invasions.

State-sanctioned shelling has been targeted at humanitarian corridors and some of Ukraine’s largest cities, including its capital of Kyiv. In response to this, Ukraine has since paused the evacuation of civilians in anticipation of Russian attacks on these corridors.

These attacks have initiated a mass exodus of refugees, the largest mass refugee movement in Europe since WWII, states the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

According to the United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner (OHCHR), as of March 30, over 1,189 Ukrainian civilians have reportedly been killed and roughly 1,901 have been injured since the invasion began. Although the OHCHR warns that the true figure may be even higher. Most of the casualties have been caused by shelling and missile air strikes.

Since the 2014 ousting of pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine has shown interest in joining the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With Ukraine leaning towards Western association and NATO’s east-ward expansion, the Kremlin announced that it feels insecure about Russia's perception of security.

Ukraine, which was once a member of the Soviet Union, has been the subject of mass disinformation campaigns by Russia, which claim that Ukraine is Nazi-affiliated and genocidal. Ukraine’s Jewish president, Volodymyr Zelensky, says otherwise.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has posed a hefty list of demands to both Ukraine and the West. He calls on Ukraine to recognize Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, as a legitimate part of Russia. Moreover, Putin also wants Ukraine to alter the makeup of its constitution and national edicts to ensure that it will never join the EU or NATO.

Putin also sends a message to NATO demanding that it reverse its expansion into eastern Europe. Namely, the Kremlin calls on NATO to remove its military forces from states that joined after 1997. This includes Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, and Bulgaria, most of which border Russia or Russian allies.

The Ontarion spoke with Dr. Ian Spears, a political science professor at U of G whose research focuses on conflict, conflict resolution, and state building, for his expert opinion on the developing war.

“You may be familiar with the security dilemma. That is the idea that if I have a gun in an effort to make myself feel more secure, it makes everyone else feel more insecure. As the West began to incorporate more and more of Eastern Europe into NATO, or into a European alliance, that was bound to make Russia feel insecure,” Spears said.

Since the initial Feb. 24 invasion, Russia has been met with a surprising resistance campaign from Ukrainian forces and the West. NATO has deployed troops to the countries that border Ukraine, including Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. However no NATO troops have stepped foot in the country. These multinational battalion-sized groups are on stand-by in case Putin decides to traverse beyond Ukraine and into NATO countries.

According to Global Affairs Canada, Canada has responded to the Russian invasion through a number of actions, such as offering military aid, deploying military personnel to bordering NATO countries, donating to humanitarian organizations and projects, and implementing policies to fast track the refugee and immigration application process.

There have been several peace talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials, but as of March 30 they have not led to any substantial resolutions.

Moreover, on March 27 President Zelensky said in an interview with Russian journalists that Ukraine was ready to begin discussing the possibility of supporting a neutral geopolitical status.

Canada has sanctioned over 900 individuals and entities from Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine who are known supporters of the Russian invasion, reports Global Affairs Canada. Many of these sanctions were directed towards individuals, including some top Kremlin figures, executives from Russian energy companies, Russian oligarchs, and so on.

Canada has not imported Russian crude oil since 2019, and

Dr. Ian Spears says that a mutually hurting stalemate may be the only way forward to meaningful Russia-Ukraine negotiations. CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH

will continue to prohibit the import of Russian oil.

Moreover, on March 8, U.S. President Biden announced a ban on all imports of Russian oil and gas.

The United Kingdom also said that it would begin to wean its dependency on Russian energy and phase out Russian oil and gas by the end of 2022, according to UK MP Kwasi Kwarteng.

The EU has adopted a slightly different approach as a result of its reliance on Russian oil. Russia currently supplies 40 per cent of the EU’s gas, reports Al Jazeera. On March 15, EU members agreed on a number of measures to strangle the Russian economy, which include a ban on steel and iron imports, an export ban on luxury goods, and a ban on new investments in Russian oil and gas.

Russian central banks have also had their assets frozen and been ousted from SWIFT, the international payment transfer network.

“The Ruble has lost 60 per cent of its value. There are all of these oligarchs, including some who might not be very sympathetic, who suddenly have their assets frozen. . . I think that it is possible that [sanctions] could wear down Russian resolve, especially if it can lead to Russians questioning the whole motivation [of the invasion],” Spears said.

“If those sanctions have teeth, which they seem to have, and as countries adapt to not using Russian oil, that could really undermine Russian prosperity in a way where [Russians] may start to question things. I think the West has more flexibility about this than Russia does.”

Dr. Edward Koning, who is also a political science professor at U of G, believes that at this point in the conflict, sanctions will be the primary response from the international community, especially from the EU.

“To some extent, the level of unanimity in agreeing on sanctions towards Russia is almost as much as you can realistically expect from the EU, considering its institutional setup. If this would move to a military response, I would much earlier expect this to come from NATO instead of the EU. That is a military alliance that is made for that very purpose,” Koning told The Ontarion.

Amidst the widespread imposition of sanctions by the international community, many have wondered if, or when, the military will begin to escalate their response to the invasion.

NATO has said that member states are working collaboratively to develop a response strategy that will prevent further escalation.

“[There is a] fear of an uncontrolled escalation. In this sense, ada-Ukraine Foundation,

Doctors Without Borders/

MSF Canada, Global Giving, the Canadian Red Cross, the Ukrainian Red Cross, or

World Central Kitchen. • Stay informed about the crisis and spread awareness. • Purchase products from shops that have vowed to donate a portion of the proceeds to Ukrainian organizations.

There are also support networks available on the U of G’s campus for those who have been affected by the crisis: • Multi-Faith Resource Team, (519) 824-4120, Ext. 58909 • Student Counselling Services, Ext. 53244 • Crisis Text Line, text “UofG” to 686868 • Employee Assistance Program for faculty and staff, 1-800-265-8310. • Homewood Health, U of G’s employee and family assistance provider, offers support for those experiencing traumatic events.

International students in need of support may also contact the International Student Advisors: • Matthew Keefe – mkeefe@ uoguelph.ca • Pugaleni Iynkaran – iynkaran@uoguelph.ca

Student Wellness has also provided information on how to manage during times of uncertainty.

Attending local solidarity rallies, donating to reputable humanitarian organizations, and spreading awareness about the crisis are all great ways to support the people of Ukraine. CREDIT: PEXELS

that’s why nobody has imposed a no-fly zone, that's why there is a profound reluctance to admit Ukraine into NATO, that’s why nobody wants to have Western troops in Ukraine, because everyone is greatly worried about escalation,” Spears said.

With the looming fear of escalation and the desire to avoid growing casualties, there has been increased pressure for negotiations with Russia. But, negotiation with a leader like Putin, who has threatened nuclear war, may pose difficulties.

Moreover, Spears says that military invasion and vast propaganda campaigns are never the result of a single person's actions; it requires many willing actors. With this in mind, he goes on to say that a mutually hurting stalemate may lead Putin to engage in meaningful negotiations. This entails a situation where progress cannot be made by either member without devastating consequences, leaving members at a standstill.

Zelensky criticized the West for not doing enough to sanction Russia and support Ukraine.

“Fear always makes you an accomplice,” he said during an address on March 28.

the globe, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has a ripple effect that impacts the entire international community, including Canada. So far we have seen impacts on oil and gas prices as well as supply chain issues, and we will presumably see an increase in the influx of refugees from Ukraine.

Canada’s oil and gas prices have surpassed $1.80 per litre at the pump since Russia’s invasion and may continue to soar, reports CTV. Moreover, Russia and Ukraine are some of the world’s largest producers of wheat–both accounting for one-quarter of the world’s wheat exports. With Ukrainian fields being destroyed by Russian shelling, a large number of working Ukrainians fleeing the country, and trade route blockades, exporting wheat has been difficult. This could mean that a loaf of bread will cost more on your next trip to the grocery store.

With regard to Ukrainian refugees and immigration, Koning suggested that the number of Ukrainians seeking refuge in Canada may be lower than other countries, but that we will still likely be welcoming many in the coming months.

“I think overall it's fair to say that the vast majority of people fleeing Ukraine will flee to the European Union… Canada has announced a number of temporary protection programs, and certainly some refugees will take advantage of those, especially those who have connections with Canada,” he said.

“For example, [in] the City of Guelph, there is a sizable Ukrainian community. So people who have ties to those communities might find Canada to be an appealing destination for that reason.”

In response to the increased demand for refuge in Canada, the Canadian government has made temporary changes to its immigration policies. These include expediting the procedure for processing travel documents and prioritizing the applications of individuals who are currently residing in Ukraine and seeking asylum in Canada.

There are a number of things that you can do to help support Ukrainians, whether that be donating to a humanitarian organization to help deliver relief, or staying informed about the developing crisis.

Here is a list of actions that you can take to support Ukraine: • Attend local rallies and events dedicated to solidarity with Ukraine. • Donate to organizations that are helping with relief efforts. Check out the Can-