GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS

With less than a year away until the Midterm elections, the results of a late October Marquette University Law School poll reveal a sour electorate and troubling political headwinds mounting for statewide incumbents facing reelection in the coming year. Midterm elections historically have not been favorable for the Presidential party in power (presently controlled by Democrats) and there are signs that next year’s election could be particularly challenging for certain statewide incumbents in Wisconsin.

For starters, Wisconsin Democrats are certain to feel the effects of President Joe Biden’s low job approval rating which has plummeted by double digits in the latest survey with a 43 percent approval rating, while 53 percent disapprove. These figures will surely impact federal congressional races where many political experts on both sides are already conceding that Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives are likely to lose control of the chamber. In Wisconsin, all eight house seats are up for election (currently 5 GOP and 3 DEM), but only one of them is seen as competitive and having national implications. The 3rd district in western Wisconsin is being vacated by incumbent Democrat Ron Kind who announced that he is not running for reelection. Republicans are hoping to pick up this open seat, while Democrats will have a primary election in August 2022 to choose their nominee. U.S. Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) is also facing a tough statewide re-election if he decides to run again, but he has yet to formally announce his plans as of this writing. Many expect Johnson to ultimately run again and he could face some strong political headwinds next year if he does decide to run. In the most recent Marquette survey, only 38 percent said they would vote for Johnson, while 52 percent said they’d support someone else. However, Johnson could benefit from the Democrats’ low popularity regardless of which candidate emerges from a 12-way primary contest.

Then there is the hotly contested race for Wisconsin Governor. Democrat incumbent Tony Evers announced earlier in the year that he is running for re-election for another four-year term. The latest Marquette poll results suggest that Evers will be fighting for his political life as he faces re-election and an unhappy electorate. A year out can seem like an eternity in politics and a lot can happen, but as of right now Evers is facing a 40 percent re-elect compared with 53 percent of those in the poll who say they would vote for someone else. If these numbers hold, it will be a very difficult environment for Gov. Evers who is likely to face former Republican Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in the general election.

A closer examination at the crosstab data on Gov. Evers’ re-election suggests possibly a deeper problem for the incumbent - Independent voters are not thrilled with him or his job performance in the latest survey. Forty-seven percent disapprove of the way Evers is handling his job as Governor versus 42 percent that approve. And just 34 percent of Independent voters said they would vote to re-elect Evers, while 58 percent said they would back someone else. These numbers are problematic for a candidate heading into a competitive re-election fight and any statewide candidate must win over Independents if they are going to be successful at the ballot box in Wisconsin. Another curious piece of polling data that should be keeping the Evers campaign up at night is that 50 percent of women polled said they would vote for someone else other than Evers versus 42 percent who would vote for him. When he ran against Governor Walker in 2018, Evers at the time dominated both independent and female voters. On the other hand, Evers does still enjoy significant support from black voters with a margin of 2:1 saying they would vote to re-elect him.

The Marquette poll did not gauge where Democrat Attorney General Josh Kaul’s reelection sits with voters, but one can easily make the case that AG Kaul is likely to face similar statewide headwinds as Evers considering the challenging political environment. The poll found negative views about all seven politicians they were asked to rate. And more than half of those polled believe the state is headed in the wrong direction and more are concerned about inflation than they were just a few months ago.

Among some of the poll’s findings:

• 45 percent approve of the job Governor Tony Evers is doing, while 46 percent disapprove. In August, his split was 50-43. Meanwhile, 42 percent view him favorably and 45 percent unfavorably, compared to 46-42 in August.

• 36 percent had a favorable opinion of U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Oshkosh), while 42 percent had an unfavorable one. In August, his split was 35-42. • 38 percent view U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison) favorably, while 39 percent view her unfavorably. Her split was 40-38 in August.

• 39 percent view Vice President Kamala Harris favorably and 47 percent view her unfavorably.

• 38 percent approved of the job the state Legislature is doing, while 48 percent disapproved.

• 41% say the state is headed in the right direction, while 51% say it is off on the wrong track. In August, 39% said the state was headed in the right direction and 52% said it was on the wrong track.

• 64 percent said they’re very concerned about inflation, while another 28 percent are somewhat concerned. In August, those numbers were 49 and 35.

The poll didn’t ask respondents about possible head-to-head contests for 2022 with the fields still unsettled and Senator Johnson yet to say whether he will seek re-election. The Marquette poll sampled 805 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points and the partisan balance of the poll was in line with historical averages. Forty-five percent identified as Republicans, 44 percent as Democrats and 9 percent as Independents. The Marquette poll is widely considered one of the more reliable state polls based on past performances in examining previous election contests.

IIAW Lobbyist