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Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation Menus for Study Countries
problem in the northwest, a region with minimal watershed management and poor infrastructure. Most prevalent in May–December, the floods have worsened in recent decades most likely due to deforestation, overgrazing, and erosion, combined with a lack of maintenance of drainage canals and pumping stations. In addition, river control programs were discontinued and reservoirs became silted. These disruptions led to a worsening of the hydroelectric and irrigation systems (Kodderitzsch 1999). Climate change could potentially increase the frequency and magnitude of flooding. While precipitation is only expected to increase in the low impact scenario by the 2040s (see map 3.2), rainfall events in all scenarios are likely to be larger and less frequent. Additionally, increasing sea level rise and storm surges are expected to increase flooding in coastal areas. For the agriculture sector in Albania, floods are particularly problematic in the spring, when flooding can delay or prevent planting of summer crops, and during late summer, when flooding can destroy the entire year’s growth and prevent timely harvesting. Less serious flood events can reduce productivity through water logging of roots. The seasonal pattern of changes in climate are, however, more important for crop and livestock production than annual averages, particularly if no adaptation measures are adopted beyond those that farmers already employ (such as changing planting dates in response to temperature changes). Figure 3.1 provides the monthly temperature and precipitation results for Albania, showing that temperature increases are higher and precipitation declines greater in July and August relative to current conditions. The summer temperature increase can be as much as 4–5ºC in the northern mountains of Albania. In addition, forecast precipitation declines are greatest in the key May–September period when precipitation is already lowest, particularly in the southern and northern mountains.
Impact Assessment Results for Albania The monthly projections in figure 3.1 are further translated to daily projections for use in the crop models. These models provide results for climate change impacts to crops if no adaptation is implemented; the crop yield impacts are summarized in table 3.1. The results show that grapes and olives will be most affected by climate change, with declining grape yield in all AEZs and with olives particularly affected in the lowlands AEZ. Winter wheat yields could increase, however, as climate change will likely result in an extended growing season, more moderate fall and winter temperatures, and greater precipitation and water availability during the wheat growing season. Alfalfa production should also increase in most regions. The expected effects on maize vary by region, with yield increases in the southern highlands and decreases in other regions, probably because current temperatures are quite moderate in the mountainous southern highlands and a temperature increase could enhance yields. The other crops analyzed in this study should
Looking Beyond the Horizon • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9768-8