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I. Background: Federal Funding of Disaster Response and Proactive Adaptation

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III. Policy Levers to Expand C...

Part 1

This section reviews managed retreat - the planned relocation of residents away from natural hazards - to better understand adaptation needs and the barriers to effective adaptation

planning. We begin with a discussion of the current federal government approach to climate change adaptation and disaster planning. We highlight the pressing need to understand how to effectively plan for managed retreat, given that the relocation of communities will become an increasingly unavoidable reality as sea levels rise and flooding intensifies. Managed retreat is an especially useful lens through which to understand local challenges to climate change adaptation initiatives. As an adaptation strategy that necessitates high degrees of collaboration, planning, and consensus building, as well as access to high-quality, locally relevant data and information, there is much to be learned from managed retreat that can be applied to climate change adaptation as a whole. This section examines the informational, psychological, financial, and institutional and political barriers that affect managed retreat and adaptation planning in general, in order to inform the adaptation planning solutions proposed in Part 2 of this report. Specifically, this section builds the case for high-quality climate services that will enhance all adaptation approaches and are a precondition for successful managed retreat policies.

I. Background: Federal Funding of Disaster Response and Proactive Adaptation

Summary: Federal resilience funding in the U.S. has largely been directed toward post-

disaster recovery, although this has begun to change with recent federal investment in proactive adaptation. Flooding is an expensive problem and an especially important area of focus for U.S. adaptation planning. Managed retreat will be one of the most costeffective ways for the U.S. to manage increased flood risks in the 21st century.

Proactive investment in climate change adaptation has proven to be cost-effective; for example, a 2017 report from FEMA and other federal agency partners reviewed the economic efficiency of pre-disaster adaptation and found that a one dollar federal investment in disaster mitigation saved six dollars over the long run.1 Despite this, the bulk of federal funding has historically

1 National Institute of Building Sciences. (2017). Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: 2017 Interim Report. FEMA. https://www. fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/fema_ms2_interim_report_2017.pdf

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skewed toward recovery.2 Furthermore, adaptation (also referred to as hazard mitigation) funding has mostly come after a disaster has already occurred.3

The federal government has begun to recognize the importance of preventative action and has created more funding opportunities for risk mitigation, rather than just disaster response. For example, FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) grant program funds a wide variety of mitigation activities, including community-wide public infrastructure projects.4 In addition, the Biden Administration committed a historic $3.46 billion in hazard mitigation funds to reduce the effects of climate change in August 2021.5 However, more proactive action is needed to meet the scale of the problem.

Flooding is a particularly serious and worsening threat that the U.S. is not well equipped to handle. In 2020, there were a record-breaking 22 separate billion dollar weather and climate events, including seven tropical cyclones and thirteen severe storms, both of which tend to have large amounts of associated flood damage.6 Collectively, these cyclones, severe storms, plus a serious drought and a wildfire that occurred in 2020 cost the country $95 billion in damages.7 Additionally, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), the primary nationwide program dedicated to flood protection and recovery, is financially unsustainable.8 By the end of the 21st century, nearly 2.5 million properties will be at risk of chronic flooding – and within the next 30 years, as many as 311,000 homes in U.S. coastal areas could be underwater.9

The most direct approach to lowering both the number of residents in danger and the economic damage of flooding events is to move residents away from high-risk areas in a process known

as managed retreat.10 Managed retreat is a floodplain and coastal management strategy that

allows or encourages shoreline residents to move inland, instead of attempting to remain on the coastline via structural engineering; it is considered the strategy that most effectively eliminates risk to human life.11 Managed retreat can occur at a small scale – such as only 1-2 homes – or can occur at the full community level, and it will very likely become an increasingly important tool in the coming decades due to increasing flood risk. Lessons learned from managed retreat in flooding scenarios can also be used to inform adaptation plans for other natural hazards where retreat is a viable strategy, including fires and desertification or long-term droughts.

2 For example, the Stafford Act’s Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation (PDM) Program authorizes the President to distribute funds to state and local authorities to assist in pre-disaster hazard mitigation funding. The PDM program budget is extremely limited, however, receiving only $25 million annually in appropriated funds from 2013-2015. Source: Federal Emergency Management Authority. (2017). National Pre-Disaster Mitigation Fund: Fiscal Year 2017 Report to Congress. Homeland Security. 3 Pew Charitable Trusts. (2018). Natural Disaster Mitigation Spending Not Comprehensively Tracked. https://pew. org/2NVz859 4 FEMA. (2021). Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities. https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/buildingresilient-infrastructure-communities 5 FEMA. (2021). Biden Administration Commits Historic $3.46 Billion in Hazard Mitigation Funds to Reduce Effects of Climate Change. https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20210805/biden-administration-commits-historic-346-billionhazard-mitigation-funds 6 Smith, A. (2021). U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in historical context. NOAA Climate. https://www.climate. gov/disasters2020 7 Smith, A. (2021). 8 Horn, D. P., & Brown, J. T. (2017). Introduction to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Congressional Research Service. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/homesec/R44593.pdf 9 Dahl, K., Cleetus, R., Spanger-Siegfried, E., Udvardy, S., Caldas, A., & Worth, P. (2018). Underwater: Rising seas, chronic floods, and the implications for US coastal real estate. Union of Concerned Scientists. www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/ attach/2018/06/underwater-analysis-full-report.pdf 10 Siders, A. R. (2019). Managed retreat in the United States. One Earth, 1(2), 216–225. 11 Freudenberg, R., Calvin, E., Tolkoff, L., & Brawley, D. (2016). Buy-in for buyouts: The case for managed retreat from flood zones. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. https://www.lincolninst.edu/sites/default/files/pubfiles/buy-in-for-buyouts-full.pdf

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Cover of "Expanding Climate Services to Respond to Adaptation Challenges"

Expanding Climate Services to Respond to Adaptation Challenges

by Princeton School of Public and International Affairs