The Lipstick Effect

In the 1960s, chain-mail dresses, bulbous helmets, reflective silver vinyl fabrics and innovative silhouettes expressed the decade’s passion for the Space Race. The year 2000 had the Millennium Bug and brimmed with tight leather, shiny clothing, frosty makeup and Matrix-inspired sunglasses. The later part of the decade and early 2010s witnessed the hipster movement, marked by an obsession with flash photography and polaroids, band t-shirts, ripped tights and all things tongue-in-cheek. From Space Race to hipster styles, such trends shared an optimistic approach towards futurism during a time of imminent or ongoing bleak political and economic turmoil. Like fashion styles, consumer spending habits also reflect eras of economic stagnation. Dubbed as the “The Lipstick Effect,” the theory posits that spending money on small indulgences, such as luxury lipstick, increases during recessions. Due to this, these trends serve as an observable aesthetic response that the fashion and beauty industry has toward instability.

Fashion trends and styles of the sixties, early aughts and 2010s served as symbols of exploration, progression, hope and even naivety in attitudes toward the future. Classified as Retro Futurism, the aesthetic combines retro styles with futuristic technology, driven by dissatisfaction with the state of the world. Commonalities throughout the many waves of retro-futurism are mainly found in the themes: escapism, hope, optimism and nostalgia. For example, high-tech metallic runway looks celebrated the future and the new technologies that emerged throughout the decades. During both the Space Race and Millenium Bug, silver shiny fabrics dominated creative spaces, like the Matrix-inspired fashions that adorned magazines. Furthermore, the 2008 recession reawakened Retro-Futuristic themes and styles. In retaliation to wealth inequality and yearning for easier times, RetroFuturism adapted to become hipster and people exchanged metallics for galaxy print.

As specific fashion styles recur, so do consumer habits under periods of political and economic instability. Following the September 11th terrorist attacks, Leonard Lauder, the chairman of Estée Lauder Companies, noticed that Estée Lauder and other stores were selling more lipstick than usual. In a post9/11 world, American customers were not guaranteed financial and global security due to ongoing political instability. Under the lack of security, luxury apparel and accessories’ sales decreased.

Yet makeup sales, specifically lipstick sales, did not decline across the board. Lauder recognized lipstick sales as a way to gauge the economy. Even amid an economic crisis, many consumers can still afford to indulge in luxury goods to a certain extent. From a psychological standpoint, consumers choose to fulfill their luxurious wants by purchasing less costly luxury goods.

However, the legitimacy of the Lipstick Effect is contested. Founder of Bésame Cosmetics Gabriela Hernandez casted doubts about the theory being excluded to lipstick. In an interview with Byrdie, Hernandez said that, in looking for “pleasure and rewards in times of stress”, lipstick is not the only luxurious item in the beauty world that is highly sought after. This is seen most recently through observations of how the COVID-19 pandemic shifted the most popular items within the beauty industry. Skincare and fragrance ruled the hashtags and, with the shift in wearing masks, lipsticks became obsolete for a time. This shift in product popularity during hard times not only challenges the concept behind the lipstick theory, but also pushes it into a broader context within all beauty sales. That is not to say that post-pandemic color cosmetics did not have a comeback. According to HAPPI, beauty education is becoming more accessible as high-end and luxury color cosmetics brands grew nearly 20% in sales from 2021 to 2022, signifying the return of color cosmetics’ popularity.

In addition to the sales of lipsticks and other color cosmetics as a guide to a period’s economic and political state, today’s runways give insight into current social conditions. During this year’s Fall/Winter fashion weeks, space-aged armor bodices from Loewe, mod silhouettes cyclical with spaceage styles from Dior and Matrix-inspired hyperrealistic prints from Syndical Chamber made their way down the runway. These retro-futuristic styles capture past styles representative of their socio-economic times and act now as a sign of the times. While economists prepare us for the impending recession, fashion trends and cycles have shifted to follow the suit.

Writer: Caroline Burns Style: Caroline Burns Photo: Maddie Dibley and Trina Fiebig Glam: Izzy Parker,Andie Bahm, and Ava Taconelli Models: Caroline Burns, Tania Akhter, Molly McGrath