Could Ukraine war lead to nukes, regime change?

U.S. and European government aid has enabled Ukraine to keep resisting and prolonging Russia’s invasion of the country—and it has raised growing fears of Russia resorting to nuclear warfare.

Many in America were disturbed several months back with the appearance of a New York City public service announcement on TV about what to do should there be a nuclear attack (“New York Put Out a PSA in Case of a Nuclear Attack, Leaving Many Residents Confused,” NPR, July 13, 2022). Mayor Eric Adams said it was not alarmist.

A Time article on Nov. 4 was headlined “The Risk of Nuclear War Is Now a Daily Issue for the Biden Administration.” A Business Insider headline Dec. 26 reported, “The UN has said nuclear war is ‘back within the realm of possibility.’ Here are the places in the US most likely to be hit in a nuclear attack.” A Daily Mail headline stated on Jan. 17: “How to survive a nuclear explosion: Scientists reveal the safest places to take shelter when a blast wave hits . . .”

Could this really happen? Horrifically, it could, especially as Vladimir Putin is backed into a corner. He and other Russian leaders have made several threats about nuclear options, especially with Western nations sending in tanks and other advanced weapons—with further talk of possible troops on the ground. Putin said in December that he might consider adding a nuclear first strike to disarm an opponent to Russia’s military doctrine (“Putin Says Russia May Add Nuclear First Strike to Strategy,” Bloomberg, Dec. 9).

The next month, Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Putin’s security council, sent a message to

NATO stating that “the defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war” and that “nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends” (“Putin Ally Warns NATO of Nuclear War if Russia Is Defeated in Ukraine,” Reuters, Jan. 19, 2023).

A few days later, the symbolic “Doomsday Clock” of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, representing their estimation of the closeness of the world to apocalyptic devastation, was moved up from 100 seconds before midnight—where it sat for two years—to 90 seconds before midnight— the closest it has ever been to the cataclysmic the devil you know than the devil you don’t’” (Mark Stevens, “Do We Really Want Putin Ousted?”, PatriotNewsfeed, Jan. 26).

Journalist Stanislav Kucher gives a more comprehensive analysis, sorting through expert opinions in a piece titled “Russia After Putin: When and How It Might Happen—and How Dangerous It Might Get” (Grid News, Jan. 23). Regime change seemed unthinkable not long ago, but now it looks like a real possibility. A major question is whether there would be a quiet voluntary departure for Putin to get away safely or a coup. The former could come in stages, with Putin selecting a successor—who would need to be less hardline and more acceptable to Western leaders. On the other hand, with a coup, there could be a bitter struggle. One Russian media analyst imagines “a fight between ‘clans surrounding Vladimir Putin today [that] look like organized crime groups.’” hour (“2023 ‘Doomsday Clock’: This Is How Close We Are to the Apocalypse, Scientists Say,” ABC News, Jan. 24).

Kucher points out that many Russians aren’t interested in a softer, peacetime leader—“they dream of an even stronger hand than Putin’s at the till.” Yet he feels that protracted internecine warfare could lead to the collapse of the country, which many predict will happen.

Several Western leaders have spoken of keeping the pressure on until Putin resigns or is removed by others among his people. But as one writer asks: “Is anybody focusing on what would happen in Russia if Putin is ousted? What does a destabilized Russia look like as criminal oligarchs scramble to fill a power void? Some are wondering about this age-old truth, ‘better