07062016 business

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WEDNESDAY, JULY 6, 2016

business@tribunemedia.net

Central Bank gives Govt ‘an uppercut’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Central Bank of the Bahamas yesterday delivered “an uppercut” to the Government’s fiscal projections, urging it to rein in spending amid a $266 million deficit for the first 10 months of the 2015-2016 fiscal year. The regulator, in its report on May’s economic developments, revealed that the deficit to endApril 2016 had increased by almost $37 million or 16.1 per cent year-over-year, as spending outpaced the VAT-led revenue increase. The Central Bank’s report

Regulator urges Gov’t to rein in spending And releases data calling into question fiscal forecasts Deficit $116.1m above year-end target 2 months out ‘Almost impossible’ to hit $150m year-end goal

JOHN ROLLE

said the $235.1 million, or 14.6 per cent, increase in total spending had exceeded the $198.2 million or 14.3 per cent rise in revenues, raising questions over whether the Government can control its expenditure. The release of the Central Bank data could not have come at a worse time for the Christie administration and the Bahamas at large, given that Moody’s is assessing whether to further downgrade this nation’s creditworthiness - possibly to so-called ‘junk’ status. The numbers indicate that the Government will again See PG B3

QC: Bahamas requires Tourism ‘softness’ exposed ‘investors, not invaders’ with 7% room revenue fall By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE QC responsible for winning numerous legal battles on behalf of environmental activists yesterday said the Government and developers had repeatedly “failed to learn their lessons”, adding that the Bahamas wanted “investors, not invaders”. Fred Smith QC, the Callenders & Co attorney and partner, said all the actions he had been involved with concerned “due process”, and the Government’s failure to follow its own statutory and legal permitting/approvals processes for investment projects. Citing the Abaco Club’s proposed 44-slip marina for Little Harbour as one such project, Mr Smith said last week’s Town Meeting on the development was little more than “a last minute attempt to put a pacifier in local residents’ mouths. He argued that the meeting did not satisfy the requirement for proper consultation, which previous court rulings have established as a legal right. And, while emphasising that none of the organisations he had represented were opposed to sustainable development, Mr Smith

Govt ‘fails to learn lessons’ on Judicial Reviews Criticises Abaco Club town meeting’s ‘pacifier’ Says minister missed point over job concerns implied that a Cabinet Minister had ‘missed the point’ over his concerns that the spate of Judicial Review-type actions was impeding job opportunities for Bahamians. Responding directly to Khaalis Rolle, minister of state for investments, Mr Smith urged the Government to focus on developing the Bahamas as a ‘green economy’, something he suggested would create “opportunities galore” for local jobs - and far more than the current development model. “The fight behind every Judicial Review we have launched is the failure to observe due process, natural justice and consultation, as the law requires,” Mr Smith told Tribune Business. “The Judicial Reviews are all See PG B4

Moody’s to make Govt ‘come clean’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net MOODY’S downgrade threat will force the Government “to come clean”, the DNA’s leader said yesterday, and be more accountable and transparent than it has been with the Bahamian people on the nation’s fiscal crisis. Branville McCartney told Tribune Business that the credit rating agency would not fall for “the waffle” typically employed by Prime Minister Perry Christie in assessing whether a downgrade of this nation’s creditworthiness - possibly to ‘junk’ status- is justified. He emphasised that the Government’s economic growth and fiscal policies were “on trial” as a result of Moody’s warning that a downgrade might come by August, and warned it was going to be “very, very difficult” for the Bahamas to escape such action. “Whatever they told Moody’s will have to be contrary to what they told the Bahamian people,” Mr McCartney told Tribune Business. “They told the Bahamian people this economy was rebounding, in essence. They told the Bahamian people there are investments going on in this country that will put the Bahamian people back to work. They told the Bahamian people that when VAT was introduced, the debt will be reduced, and we will be looking good

Bran: More accountable now than with Bahamians Warns Gov’t ‘cannot waffle their way out’ Says growth, fiscal policies now ‘on trial’ on the international stage financially.” Arguing that little to any See PG B4

$4.15 $4.20 $4.06

$4.21

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

TOURISM “softness” resulted in a 7 per cent yearover-year decline in peak winter room revenues for Nassau’s major hotels, with both occupancies and pricing coming under pressure. The weaker performance by the Bahamas’ leading industry added to the economic gloom enveloping the country in the wake of Moody’s downgrade threat, with the Central Bank branding the sector’s performance as “relatively weak”. The regulator, basing its analysis on data supplied by the Bahamas Hotel and Tourism Association (BHTA) from New Providence’s major hotels, said: “Total room revenues declined by an estimated 7 per cent during the first four months of 2016, relative to the corresponding period a year earlier, reflecting a 1.4 percentage point reduction in the average occupancy rate to 75.6 per cent, along with a 5.8 per cent ($16.83) decrease in the average

Peak winter season ‘relatively weak’ VAT revenues hit $551m after just 10 months Mortgage ‘sell-off’ aids bank credit indicators daily room rate (ADR) to $270.91” The Central Bank added that “modest gains” in airlift and hotel capacity should drive “some signs of improvement” in tourism later this year, but that will be too late for the peak winter period, which occurs over the four months to end-April. Elsewhere, the Central Bank said $550.8 million in gross Value-Added Tax (VAT) collections had driven a $201.1 million, or 16.4 per cent, improvement in Government revenues to $1.424 billion for the 10 months to end-April 2016. See PG B4

Ex-Chamber chief ‘100% certain’ of credit downgrade D’Aguilar: ‘High school grad’ could have forecast this Bahamas ‘doing same and expecting new results’ Calls for Economic Council to ‘burst bubble’ By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net A FORMER Chamber of Commerce president yesterday said he was “100 per cent certain” the Bahamas’ sovereign credit rating will be downgraded by Moody’s, due to its failure to enact fundamental reforms. Dionisio D’Aguilar, Superwash’s president, told Tribune Business that a “high school graduate” could have predicted this country was heading for downgrade territory, given that it persisted in “doing the same thing and expected different results”. “I’m not surprised at all,” he said of Moody’s decision on Friday to DIONISIO place the Bahamas D’AGUILAR on a two-month downgrade review. “The Government keeps on doing the same old thing and expecting different results. “You still have a tough economy that is not growing, you’re not putting the VAT money on the debt, which we all knew would happen. “I don’t know what bubble they’re [the Government] living in, but they’re not growing the economy. Unemployment and debt are at record levels; of course we’re heading for a downgrade. A high school graduate could have told them that. I’m 100 per cent certain we’ll be downgraded.” A further downgrade by Moody’s of two notches or more could cost the Bahamas its investment grade rating, pushing this nation into so-called ‘junk’ status. The New York-based rating agency said its action was due to both the Bahamas’ unexpected economic contraction over the past two years, and the further deterioration in the Government’s fiscal position. It appears to have been sparked by Prime Minister Perry Christie’s affirmation of official Department of Statistics data showing that the Bahamian economy contracted by 1.7 per cent in 2015, following a 0.5 per cent See PG B5


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